Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, November 14

Lenny Del Genio

Vikings at Packers
Play: Under

Second meeting in four weeks between these NFC North rivals. The first saw a total of 60 points scored, but a good "rule of thumb" says you can always expect fewer points scored in a rematch between division rivals. Such should be the case tonight as the Packers are 5-1 Under after scoring 40 or more points in their previous game while also going 5-1 Under off back to back Overs. Minnesota is 7-1 Under in Weeks 10 through 13.

David Chan

Tampa Bay @ Winnipeg
PICK: Winnipeg +1.5

The 8-6-2 Tampa Bay Lightning storm into Winnipeg to take on the 5-9-3 Jets.

The veteran Dwayne Roloson gets the start in net for the Bolts; he'll be opposed by Ondrej Pavelec.

The Jets have lost five straight.

The Jets organization has lost 12-straight in this series.

Winnipeg is coming off a 2-1 loss to the Blue Jackets on Saturday:

“Our guys played OK, but we didn’t play as smart as we need to play,” coach Claude Noel said. “We’ve got to be better at managing the game. It gets frustrating.”

Tampa Bay lost 3-0 at St. Louis on Saturday.

The Lightning have averaged 2.6 goals on the road, but have given up an average of 3.89, which prompted coach Guy Boucher to say:

“This is getting to be very disappointing. We were a terrific road team last year and we played hard and we showed up every single night. So far this season it’s been the opposite. We’re outstanding at home, we don’t give anything to anyone, but then we get on the road and we get down by two or three goals, usually in the first period.” Boucher said. “I’ve changed the pregame routine, shuffled the lines, I’ve done this, I’ve done that, I’ve done it all. We’re going to have to find another way.”

Tampa has, not surprisingly, struggled with the man-advantage while on the road, converting just two of its last 29 power-play chances away from friendly confines.

With two days off after tonights game, and before an extended home stand which starts against bitter rival Pittsburgh on Thursday, I believe the talented (but tired) Lightning have a bit of a letdown here; that said, this game could easily be decided in extra frames; so with that in mind, I'm going to lay the juice for the extra 1.5 goals!

Jim Feist

Northeastern vs Massachusetts
Pick: Northeastern

Northeastern opened the season with a overtime win at Boston University on Friday, 82-74. Coach Bill Coen's Huskies return four starters this season. Junior guard Joel Smith had a double-double in Friday's win, leading the Huskies in both points (20) and rebounds (12). Smith also had a career-high in rebounds and his point total was just one shy of his career best. Reggie Spencer, a freshman making his first start, also picked up a double-double and finished with 16 points. U Mass also opened with a win in its opening game, a 85-67 win at home over Elon. HC Derek Kellogg has three starters returning to his club. However, gone from this year's edition is Anthony Gurley. Gurley led last year's team in scoring (18.7) and was second in rebounding (4.4). The 6-3 guard also was the team-leader in three-pointers, free throws and steals. I see a edge here with Northeastern on the boards as the Huskies grabbed 52 loose balls in their win over Boston U, out-rebounding the Terriers by 20. Meanwhile, U Mass held just a one-board edge over visiting Elon. I don't see an experienced group from Northeastern averaging 34% from the field like Elon did. I'm going to take the points here on Monday with the Huskies.

SPORTS WAGERS

Minnesota +13 over GREEN BAY

Christian Ponder cut his teeth just three weeks ago against these champion Packers, managing to hold his own and covering a 10-point spread in the process. This one should go with less of a question of the better team and the Monday night venue is tailor made for Aaron Rodgers to shine but one thing we know for sure is that you’re going to pay a premium to wager on the popular Packers and that’s something that can’t be recommended. The Packers have been plenty kind to quarterbacks this year and Adrian Peterson has been a machine. Peterson rushed for 175 yards on 24 carries and scored once on the visiting Packers for his biggest game of the year. Peterson has been much better with Ponder under center, as has the whole team. The Vikes defense is a decent group and with Ponder at least moving the chains, it has given the defense a lot more time off the field, as opposed to on the field when Donovan McNab was going three and out all the time. Of course a Pack easy win and cover would not surprise one bit. However, on a Monday night with the Packers at home, it’s an inflated line, period, and therefore taking the points has to be considered the right choice. Play: Minnesota +13 (No bets).

Philadelphia +135 over CAROLINA

This is a regulation bet or a three-way bet option. The Flyers have beaten the Canes in nine of the past 10 games, including a 5-1 victory this season. Philly has also been better on the road this season with five wins in seven games and one of those losses came in OT. Philadelphia played in Florida last night and won 3-2 after being off since Thursday so fatigue should not be an issue. This is a great team with very few flaws and they catch the Hurricanes coming off their best win of the year. On Saturday night, Carolina beat Pittsburgh and they played their hearts out for 60 minutes. They were also fortunate, as the Pens rallied from a 3-0 deficit to tie it in the third and continued to apply immense pressure. The Canes got a lucky goal with about four minutes to go and afterwards they celebrated like they had won a playoff game. Prior to that they had dropped four in a row and you can expect them to go back to their losing ways here after that emotional win on Saturday. Unlike the Flyers, Carolina rolls out one good line and a porous defense. For them to win, Cam Ward has to stand on his head because he’s usually facing a barrage of quality scoring chances. Play: Philadelphia +135 in regulation time (Risking 2 units).

Buffalo +130 over MONTREAL

This is a regulation bet or a three-way bet option. Great spot for the Sabres after the Bruins buried them on Saturday by a score of 6-2. You know for sure that loss did not sit well with Lindy Ruff or anyone else. The Sabres always play their best games in Montreal and this one should be no different. Ryan Miller is out with a concussion but that could be a blessing in disguise, as he’s been shaky while Jonas Enroth has been rock solid with a 5-0 record, a 1.75 GAA and a .944 save %. Enroth is 14-3-2 lifetime, he's 12-0-1 in his last 13 decisions and his last loss was on Nov. 24, 1-0 to Pittsburgh. The Canadiens also return home from a tough two-game trip to Nashville and Phoenix in which they won them both in OT. The Habs have won six of eight but that’s an unsustainable pace because they’re a playoff bubble team at best. A response after a blowout by quality teams is usually fast and favorable and that’s precisely what we expect from the Sabres against an inferior club in a difficult spot. Play: Buffalo +130 (Risking 2 units).

NHL Predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning -150

The Jets have been pretty bad as of late, losing 5 in a row, including their latest a 2-1 loss to the last place Columbus Blue Jackets on Saturday night. The Jets have played 8 of their last 9 games on the road, as they returned home from a 7 game road trip with a loss to Florida before heading back on the road to Columbus. Winnipeg is just 5-9-3 on the season, and 2-3 at home this season. Tampa Bay had won three straight before being shutout on Saturday night in St Louis. The Lightning are 8-6-2 on the year, and 3-5-2 on the road. Comparing stats the Lightning are better in almost every category, including goals for and against per game, powerplay, and penalty kill. Note that the Lightning have won 7 of their last 10 games, while the Jets have won just 3 of their last 10. The Lightning are 9-4 in their last 13 vs a team with a losing record. The Lightning have just owned the Jets (Thrashers) franchise lately, winning 12 straight meetings between these two teams. No doubt that Tampa Bay is the more talented team, and they are coming into tonight’s game playing well. The Jets find themselves in an awful position being away from home for such a long period over the last three weeks, losing 5 straight, and missing a number of starting defensemen. Lay the chalk on the road team tonight as the Lightning handle the Jets to go on to a win.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Detroit +7.5

The Irish have won 20 in a row at Purcell Pavilion and are 85-6 there since the beginning of the 2006 season, but I expect them to get a major test from an experienced Detroit squad this evening. Without senior All-America candidate Tim Abromaitis, who is suspended the first four games by the NCAA, the Irish struggled in their opener. They led Mississippi Valley State by just two points with 12 1/2 minutes left in the second half before eventually winning 80-67. Not having Abromaitis is a big deal. He is the team's top returning scorer and rebounder. The Titans are without Eli Holman, but they still return four other players who averaged double-digits in scoring last season. Keep in mind that this Detroit team went to Syracuse last season and played the Orange to an 11-point game to easily cover the 16.5-point spread. Notre Dame, meanwhile, lost by 12 points in its visit to Syracuse last season. This goes to show you that the Titans are capable of competing with just about any team in the country. The Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Big East. The Fighting Irish, meanwhile, are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. We'll take the points.

Tony George

USC / Nebraska Under 119

Husker defense is still going to be one of the best around this season, Doc Sadler always has a slow down approach to his madness of coaching defense. Love the UNDER here. NU not explosive on offense, throw it around and work the clock. Play the Under.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Minnesota/ Green Bay Under 50: 76% of the public is on the over yet in some books the line has dropped 2 points. Hmmmm. I know that the last time these teams played a total of 60 points were scored, but I don't see that happening here. The Packers pass defense has been horrible this year, but teams have had to throw a lot on this team in order to play catch up, so a lot of those pass yards were garbage yards. The last time these teams met, the Pack did a good job on Ponder as he hit just 40.6% of his passes for 219 yards with 2 TD's and 2 INT's . Christian got lucky with a few big plays as his ypa was 6.5, but his ypc was 16.7. Green Bay will not let that happen again. The Vikings did rack up 217 yards on the ground in that game, but GB is still 8th vs the run (100 ypg) and they allow just 106 ypg on the ground at home. That last game was also on the fast track of Minnesota and with this one on grass it should slow down Peterson a bit. I do see Minnesota being able to move the ball on Green Bay, but I see them working down the field and using clock, rather than getting the quick scores they did last time. The Green Bay offense is a machine and they score 38 ppg at home, but Minnesota has had an extra week to work on this and I expect them to take away the big plays that Green Bay can get and keep everything in front of them, so that the Pack has to work their way down the filed as well. I almost expect the Vikes to play a prevent defense the whole game. That's what I would do anyway. LOL The Vikes offense will not surprise GB this time around, while the Packs drives will take a bit longer than they're used to. the last 2 times these teams met here on MNF there was just 43 & 37 points scored and I see this one right around 44.

Tom Freese

Northern Iowa at St. Marys
Prediction: St. Marys

St. Marys is a 10.5 point favorite in this matchup against Northern Iowa. Both teams opened up the season with a win, Northern Iowa beat Old Dominion 63-43 as four point road underdogs and St. Mary?s destroyed Fresno Pacific 98-58. Northern Iowa had a strong opening night against Old Dominion but that was due to the fact that Old Dominion started off the season a little rusty, only hit 27% of their shots going 12-44 which was the main cause for the defeat. That blowout win by St. Marys put them in a strong situation since they are a perfect 9-0 ATS when coming off a home win where they had a very strong offensive performance, scoring 85 points or more. They are also 21-9 ATS in non conference games over the last three seasons and should easily cover this double digit spread over Northern Illinois. Play on St. Marys-CA.

Dave Price

1 Unit Davidson -6.5

Playing on home teams that are listed as a favorite or pick (Davidson in this case) that are coming off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, a team that won between 51 and 60% of its games last season playing a team that had a winning record, has produced a 55-24 ATS mark since 1997. Teams that meet this criteria have won by an average of 14.1 points during this span. We'll lay the number with Davidson.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit Vikings/Packers OVER 49.5

lays Over on home teams in the second half of the season that have covered the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, provided they have won 75% or more of their games on the season, are 26-3 the last 5 seasons. This system is a near-perfect 12-1 the last 3 seasons. The Vikings and Packers combined for 60 points in the season's first meeting, which marked the 5th time in the last 6 meetings they had combined for 52 points or more. We'll take the Over.

Jack Jones

Vikings/Packers OVER 49.5

The Packers and Vikings are likely to play in another shootout tonight at Lambeau Field. Green Bay beat Minnesota 33-27 in their first meeting of the season, and I expect a similar final score in this one.

The Packers have been scoring at will this season behind the MVP-type play of Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is scoring 34.4 points/game and averaging 416.4 total yards/game. Rodgers is completing 72.5 percent of his passes for 2,619 yards with 24 touchdowns and three interceptions.

The problem for the Packers has been on defense. Green Bay ranks 28th in the league in total defense (399.6 yards/game). The Packers gave up 435 total yards to the Vikings in their first meeting, and Adrian Peterson rushed for 175 of those yards. Green Bay did manage 421 yards of offense, though.

Even since Christian Ponder has taken over at quarterback for Minnesota, their offense has clicked. The Vikings are averaging 25.5 points and 398 total yards/game in his two starts this year. Like Green Bay, Minnesota has taken a step back defensively this year. They are allowing 24.9 points and 368.0 total yards/game, including 26.5 points and 385 yards on the road.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. They have combined to score 52 or more points in five of their last six meetings. The OVER is 7-2 in Packers last 9 home games. The OVER is 55-27-2 in Packers last 84 vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 6-1 in Vikings last 7 Monday games. The OVER is 41-20-1 in Vikings last 62 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

WUNDERDOG

Tennessee State at Western Kentucky
Pick: Western Kentucky -2.5

The Tennessee State Tigers had an ominous debut as they were manhandled by St. Louis, where they managed to score just 37 points. The Tigers simply had no leadership or answers, and failed to have even a single player score in double figures. They must pick up the pieces, and square-off vs. Western Kentucky who dropped an 11-point decision to St. Joe's. The Tigers own just a 4-9-1 ATS mark in their last 14 as a +6.5 point or less dog, and has been a program full of struggles for many a year. The Hilltoppers have owned the Ohio Valley Conference where they now stand at 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings against them. I expect Western Kentucky to get their first win of the season, so I'll back them in this one.

David Banks

Vikings / Packers Over

Week 10 of the 2011-12 NFL season comes to a close on Monday night at Lambeau Field where the Minnesota Vikings (2-6, 4-3-1 ATS) will look to earn their first divisional win of the season when they face the defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers (8-0, 6-2 ATS) for the second time this season; kick-off for this NFC North clash is set to go live on ESPN at 8:30 ET.

Off a disappointing 6-10 SU finish a year ago, the Minnesota Vikings weren’t expected to make much noise heading into the 2011-12 NFL season. At 2-6 SU entering this week’s Monday Nighter in Green Bay, it’s safe to say the Vikes have lived up to expectations. Having said that, there’s a bit of optimism surrounding the franchise right now after the team covered each of its last two games heading into Week 9’s bye. Most of the excitement surrounds the ability of rookie QB Christian Ponder to look past his surroundings and perform like the first round draft pick the Vikings believed he was. The former Florida State Seminole has thrown for 554 yards at 7.19 yards per attempt to go along with a 3/2 TD/INT ratio since taking over for ineffective veteran Donovan McNabb . He completed 18-of-28 passes for 236 yards and a score against a semi decent Carolina defense in his first ever road start, and should find success once more against Green Bay’s porous pass defense (#31 at 299.6 YPG allowed) in this spot.

The Packers have hardly been tested in their quest to produce a perfect regular season resume. Sure, teams have been able to match scores with them, but the defending champs have found a way to come out on top every time en route to covering six of their eight games played to date. The defense gave them the added boost necessary to overcome a furious comeback by the San Diego Chargers, as it returned a pair of errant Philip Rivers passes for scores in the 45-38 road win and cover. QB Aaron Rodgers is in the midst of a historical season that’s already seen him throw for 2619 yards while completing better than 72 percent of his passes. He’s spread the pigskin around to his plethora of receivers and accumulated a whopping 24 TD passes to just three interceptions. He already torched the Vikings defense for 335 yards and three TDs in the division rivals first match-up in Week 7, so it’s safe to say he’ll do more of the same this time around considering Minnesota’s pass defense checks in ranked 30th in the league allowing 273.6 YPG.

Green Bay has won each of the L/3 meetings between these squads (2-1 ATS) with the ‘over’ cashing on two occasions. The Vikings were throttled their last visit to Lambeau falling 31-3 as three-point underdogs, but stand 7-3 ATS their L/10 overall trips to the “Land of Cheese”. Minny stands just 1-7 SU & 1-6-1 ATS when seeking revenge against an opponent, but checks in 3-1-1 ATS its L/5 when dogged. Green Bay’s 23-12 ATS the L/25 times it went of the board favored, but is just 1-2 SU & ATS its L/3 Monday night Appearances. The ‘over’ is 6-1 in these teams L/7 overall confrontations.