Rocketman
SMU @ Colorado State
Play: Colorado State -5
SMU is 6-16 ATS in all neutral court games since 1997 including 0-5 SU and ATS the past 3 years. SMU is 5-14 ATS last 3 years after a non-conference game. SMU is 4-14 ATS last 3 years in non-conference games. SMU is 32-55 ATS since 1997 after allowing 60 points or less. Colorado State is 7-0 ATS in November the past 3 years. Mustangs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as an underdog. Mustangs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Mountain West. We'll recommend a small play on Colorado State tonight!
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Philadelphia -108 over CAROLINA: Philly has dominated this series, winning 15 of their last 18 played, including the lone game they played this year, which was a 5-1 Flyers victory. The Flyers ahve also played well on the road this year, going 5-1-1 away from home. Cam Ward gets the nod tonight for Carolina nd he is just 4-8-2 with a 3.15 GAA in his career vs Philadelhia. Carolina comes in just 3-7 in their last 10 games and will not be able to hang with the high scoring Flyers tonight.
John Ryan
Central Florida at Florida State
Prediction: Florida State
5* graded play on Florida State as they take on University of Central Florida set to start at 7:00 PM ET. Don?t think for a second the Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton is going to allow his team to overlook this intra-state matchup. With wins like these come additional bragging rights and greater recruitment potential for FSU.
The Seminoles have been known for their tenacious defense and has many times overcome a weak offensive performance. They ranked 13th in the nation in rebounding and this minimized second chance scoring opportunities for opponents. The Seminoles will look to add to that presence with 6-foot-7 freshman Antwan Space, who has explosive quickness and elevates with the best. He will add to the offense with his athleticism and is already known for tough man defense in practices.
My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Florida State will win this game by 11 or more points. The simulator shows high probabilities exceeding 85% that the Seminoles will shoot 47 to 53% from the field, will make between 38 and 45% of their three-point shot attempts, will get nine to 13 offensive boards, and will allow 60 or fewer points.
In past games where they have achieved these levels of performance they have gone 10-1 ATS when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last two seasons; 52-29 ATS when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game since 1997; 9-2 ATS when they grab 9 to 13 offensive rebounds in a game over the last two seasons; 53-27 ATS (+23.3 Units) when they allow 60 or less points in a game since 1997.
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 120-66 ATS for 65% winners since 1997. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points and is a team from a major division 1-A conference facing a team from a second tier conference and is off a home win by 10 points or more. Of the 186 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 58 of them or 32%, have covered the spread by seven or more points.
The line is currently at FSU favored by 9 ? and a move to 10 points does not negate this play in the least. The simulator is always the primary reason I issue plays and the supporting cast of systems, angles, and game situations serve only to reinforce the strength of the graded play.
Coach Hamilton has always focused on the defensive end in practice sessions and it shows up early in the season. The Seminoles are not a gifted offensive team and they need to play extremely strong defense to get out of the ACC shadows of Duke and North Carolina. I do believe that a primary goal for the team will be to keep UCF to 60 points or less and use transition off of missed shots to generate strong scoring opportunities. Hamilton is a solid 17-8 ?under? in November games as the coach of Florida State.
FSU is a near perfect 11-1 ?under? when they allow 55 to 60 points in a game over the last three seasons. This is not a self fulfilling prophesy as many of these totals already reflect the strong FSU presence, so many times, as is the case today, the total gets bid higher. The line opened at 131 and is currently at 133 ? and I think working a small wager at the 135 level is worthwhile. Take Florida State as a 5* wager Monday evening.
Rob Vinciletti
SMU vs. Colorado State
Play: Colorado State -5
The Rams have excelled of late in early season November games going 7-0 ats. When taking on Conference USA teams they have won and covered 3 of the last 4. They have won straight up in 25 of 28 games when favored and played well in a win in their opener against Montana. SMU is 0-5 straight up and ats in neutral court games the last 3 seasons and 4-14 ats in non conference games. When taking on Mountain West Conference schools they are 0-3 straight up and ats. In their opener they won vs Mcmurry, not not be confused with Mcflurry from McDonalds in a game one wonders why you would bother to schedule. Look for Colorado S to emerge with a win and cover.
Scott Rickenbach
Nebraska @ USC
PICK: USC
The Cornhuskers of Nebraska travel to USC to battle the Trojans on Monday night. With both teams having lost their leading scorers and a number of talented players from a year ago, this is a bit of a rebuilding year for both programs. USC is the favorite by about a point, and I expect the home court advantage to play a major role in the outcome between two young and inexperienced teams.
USC is coming off a 66-59 win over Cal State to open the season on Friday. Sophomore Maurice Jones led the Trojans in that match-up and will be one of the more experienced players on the floor on Monday. Jones averaged 10 PPG last season and scored 16 points in the opener. Iowa transfer Aaron Fuller and DeWayne Dedmon each also scored 16 points in the opening night win. Look for Jones, Fuller and Dedmon to lead the Trojans at home tonight as the chalk. Note that USC is 5-1-1 ATS L7 as the home favorite of .5 to 6.5 points.
Nebraska has historically struggled on the road, and we can expect these struggles to persist with a young team early in the season. Note that the ‘Huskers are just 20-42-1 ATS L63 road games. Nebraska has also fared poorly as the underdog (3-7-1 ATS L11 as the dog of .5 to 6.5 points), versus non-conference opponents (1-5 ATS L6), and against the Pac-12 (1-4 ATS L5). Look for these trends to continue. Consider a play on the USC Trojans at home tonight.
Steve Janus
George Mason -12.5
Georgia Mason was pushed to the limit in their 92-90 overtime win over a very underrated Rhode Island team in their season opener, and I believe that is why you see such a low spread for their game against Florida International tonight. Florida International has won a total of 18 games the last two seasons, and are simply not talented enough to keep it close against Patriots. Despite the non-cover in their first game, George Mason is 37-15-6 ATS in their last 58 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games overall.
DR. BOB
GREEN BAY (-13.5) 28 Minnesota 20
Green Bay is unbeaten but the Packers are not that dominant and will probably lose a few games down the stretch. The Packers have only out-gained their opponents by 18 total yards per game and the 6.3 yards per play that their defense has allowed should be a real concern for Packers’ fans. Minnesota just racked up 435 yards at 6.7 yppl against that defense 3 weeks ago in a 27-33 home loss and I think the Vikings will stay within the number in this game. The Vikings are much better than their 2-6 record would indicate, as they’ve only been out-gained 5.5 yppl to 5.7 yppl while being out-scored by just 3.4 points per game. My math model favors Green Bay by 11 points and Minnesota applies to a 128-54-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator. Bad teams coming off their bye week have also been good bets historically, as teams that are 3 games or more below .500 are 78-40 ATS following their bye as long as they’re not favored by more than 3 points. There was a theory that the mandatory 4 full days away from football during the bye week that the players negotiated in the last collective bargaining agreement has affected how teams play after their bye week but teams off a bye are 12-12 straight up and 12-11-1 ATS, so that theory doesn’t really hold water. Regardless of whether the Vikings will be improved off their bye week, they’re certainly good enough to stay within two touchdowns of a defenseless Packers team that’s only won 2 games by more than 11 points.
OC Dooley
Florida Atlantic -4.5
Georgia State has a pair of guards James Fields (groin) and Tony Kimbro (wrist) that are listed as questionable due to injury. In this neutral-court setting that gives Florida Atlantic a significant advantage as they have a pair of VETERAN starting point guards who are a senior and junior respectively. Florida Atlantic has four returning starters from a successful team a year ago (21-11) along with EIGHT returning “letter winners”. For the Owls to be posted as a favorite tonight speaks volumes as Georgia State has owned them in this series (14-3 past seventeen meetings) even though they have not faced each other since way back in the 2005 campaign. Georgia State is 0-2 SU/ATS out of the gate including an ugly loss to the Washington Huskies where they allowed 91 points. Florida Atlantic (+14’) also faced the same Washington Huskies and successfully COVERED the spread. For those that may not be aware Florida Atlantic is coached by veteran Mike Jarvis who used to be with high-profile programs and is in year #24 overall