Tom Freese
Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns
Prediction: Phoenix Suns
Denver is 5-4 straight up this year. The Nuggets are 3-11-2 ATS their last 16 road games. The Nuggets are 4-19-5 ATS their last 28 games off an ATS win. Denver is 1-6-1 ATS their last 8 games off a straight up win. Phoenix is 5-4 straight up this year. The Suns are 22-8-1 ATS their last 31 games as a favorite. Phoenix is 22-10-1 ATS their last 32 games off an ATS win. The Suns are 6-1 ATS their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Scott Spreitzer
Hampton at Wake Forest
Play: Hampton
One CBB preseason preview basically said that Wake Forest will finish 12th in the ACC because there aren't 13 teams. OUCH. This once proud program has really hit the skids since the untimely death of Skip Prosser. Gone is Dino Guadio who couldn't keep the ship pointed in the right direction. The cupboards are bare, to say the least, for first-year coach Jeff Bzdelik. He did a great job turning Air Force into a competitive basketball team while running a Princeton-like offensive attack. But this Demon Deacon squad has lost four key players from a season ago and those leftover are not the right fit for this offense, at least not yet. Wake Forest lost their opener to a Stetson team that's slated for one of the final two or three spots in the Atlantic Sun. The Deacons gave up a whopping 89 points in the 10 point loss. Tonight's guest, Hampton returns three starters to the squad. They should easily land in the top four in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference. They're led by 6'6 guard Darrion Pellum who simply shoots over the top of most defenders. He'll be the best offensive player on the floor tonight and I expect him to give the Deacons fits. The Pirates suffered more than their share of turmoil away from the court last season, but Coach Edward Joyner, Jr., has molded a strong cast to start this season. Good luck -
JIM FEIST
NEW ORLEANS HORNETS / DALLAS MAVERICKS
PLAY: NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
There is one undefeated team in the NBA. Most would have thought LeBron's Heat or Kobe's Lakers, but no, it's the 8-0 New Orleans Hornets. They put their unbeaten streak on the line tonight when they play at the Dallas Mavericks. The Hornets have relied on a stiffling defense that has held their last three opponents under 90 points. New Orleans is allowing just 89.8 ppg, second best in the NBA. "Defense is where we want to make our staple," said David West, who scored 18 points. "We are really drilling and really working and doing what we have to do in terms of preparation. We've been able to execute the game plan defensively from start to finish." Chris Paul leads the Hornets, averaging 17 points per game. However, it's been a very balanced offense as all five starters have averaged in double figures. Dallas (6-2 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) has also been playing good defense, holding six of their eight opponents to 91 points or less. The Hornets are 6-1-1 ATS the last eight in this series and I don't see that changing here on Monday. Take the visitors plus the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia –3½ over WASHINGTON
Hopefully those that are wagering on the Eagles backed them yesterday or before, as they were a three-point favorite then. Nonetheless, it’s tough to recommend a wager on the Redskins, despite the fact that they’re a Monday Night home dog and that the public is pounding the Eagles. The problems with the Skins are numerous. First, Washington’s record is 4-4 but this is not a .500 club. The Skins are without doubt one of the least talented team’s in the NFL. As far as playmakers and stars are concerned, the Skins are without any. Secondly, you have the Mike Shanahan/Donovan McNab benching fiasco on the game’s final drive against the Lions in which Shanahan cited McNab for being too fat to execute the two-minute drill. Nice call coach. Shanahan also worked over Albert Haynesworth in the preseason for the same reason and these incidents of coach turning on player and openly calling them out does not make for a cohesive unit. Winning a football game is tough enough but winning becomes 100 times more difficult when there are distractions and animosity flying around the locker room between coach and player(s). Just ask the Vikings. Also note that the Skins beat the Eagles 17-12 in week 4 but were not the better team in that contest. The breaks went the Skins way. After the game, Donovan McNab was clutching the game ball in the locker room and declared during his victory speech that, “The Philadelphia Eagles made a mistake letting him go”. He later added, “Everyone makes mistakes in life, and they made one last year.” You can be damn sure that has been played in the Eagles locker room about 1000 times this week leading up to this game. The Eagles are so much better than the Redskins and losing to them twice in the same year is not an option. While we hate to side with the public and a road favorite on Monday, the alternative is far less appealing and therefore laying the points are much preferred. Play: Philadelphia –3½ (No bets).
EZWINNERS
Philadelphia Eagles -3
Philadelphia has Mike Vick back from his rib injury and he is playing very well, while the Redskins have friction between their starting quarterback Donovan McNabb and head coach Mike Shanahan that doesn't look like will get better any time soon. The Eagles defense is also playing very well and the Redskins are the only team in the NFL to be out gained in total yards in every game that they have played. Monday night division home dogs have historically been a strong play, but the Redskins are 0-9 straight up and against the spread in their last nine Monday night home games and I look for that streak to continue as the Eagles get their revenge for this season's earlier home loss to Washington. Lay the points.
DUNKEL INDEX
New England at Pittsburgh
The Steelers look to take advantage of a New England team that is coming off a 34-14 loss to Cleveland and is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU defeat. Pittsburgh is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-4 1/2)
Game 239-240: Philadelphia at Washington (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 134.246; Washington 135.888
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Over
NBA
Detroit at Golden State
The Warriors look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 trips to Golden State. Golden State is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Warriors favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-6)
Game 501-502: Minnesota at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 107.917; Charlotte 119.283
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 11 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 9; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-9); Over
Game 503-504: Memphis at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 117.366; Orlando 123.976
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 6 1/2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 8 1/2; 200
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+8 1/2); Under
Game 505-506: New Orleans at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 120.967; Dallas 126.370
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 5 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 4; 187
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-4); Over
Game 507-508: Denver at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 123.245; Phoenix 122.598
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 1; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 217 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+1 1/2); Under
Game 509-510: Oklahoma City at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 113.577; Utah 117.979
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 4 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 6; 205
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+6); Over
Game 511-512: Detroit at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 111.204; Golden State 119.930
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 8 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 6; 206
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-6); Under
Game 513-514: New Jersey at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 114.428; LA Clippers 114.541
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 193
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 2; 189
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+2); Over
NCAAB
Miami (FL) at Memphis
The Tigers come off a 104-40 win over Centenary and look to build on their 21-10-1 ATS record in their last 32 games after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game. Memphis is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-5 1/2)
Game 515-516: William & Mary at Richmond (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: William & Mary 55.194; Richmond 68.981
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 14
Vegas Line: Richmond by 17
Dunkel Pick: William & Mary (+17)
Game 517-518: Yale at Providence (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 45.034; Providence 65.344
Dunkel Line: Providence by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: Providence by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Providence (-17 1/2)
Game 519-520: Tulane at Georgetown (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 50.055; Georgetown 74.601
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 24 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 22 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-22 1/2)
Game 521-522: Valparaiso at Kansas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 56.915; Kansas 77.163
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 20
Vegas Line: Kansas by 22 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Valparaiso (+22 1/2)
Game 523-524: Troy at Alabama (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 52.163; Alabama 69.486
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Alabama by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Troy (+19 1/2)
Game 525-526: San Diego at Stanford (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 49.424; Stanford 66.651
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 17
Vegas Line: Stanford by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-13 1/2)
Game 527-528: Santa Clara at USC (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 52.977; USC 60.842
Dunkel Line: USC by 8
Vegas Line: USC by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (+11 1/2)
Game 529-530: Miami (FL) at Memphis (12:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 63.186; Memphis 71.250
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 8
Vegas Line: Memphis by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-5 1/2)
Game 531-532: St. John's at St. Mary's (CA) (2:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. John's 63.082; St. Mary's (CA) 70.843
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (CA) (-4 1/2)
Game 533-534: Hampton at Wake Forest (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hampton 50.373; Wake Forest 60.585
Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 10
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hampton (+13 1/2)
Game 535-536: Winthrop vs. VCU (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winthrop 48.260; VCU 64.139
Dunkel Line: VCU by 16
Vegas Line: VCU by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: VCU (-10 1/2)
Game 537-538: Pacific vs. Nevada (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 59.143; Nevada 60.673
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Pacific by 4
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (+4)
Game 539-540: Pepperdine at UCLA (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pepperdine 46.942; UCLA 65.042
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 18
Vegas Line: UCLA by 20
Dunkel Pick: Pepperdine (+20)
Game 541-542: Montana State vs. CS-Fullerton (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 49.983; CS-Fullerton 47.313
Dunkel Line: Montana State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Montana State by 1
Dunkel Pick: Montana State (-1)
Game 543-544: Wofford at Clemson (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 60.495; Clemson 74.230
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Clemson by 10
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-10)
Game 545-546: Austin Peay at Chattanooga (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Austin Peay 50.795; Chattanooga 49.686
Dunkel Line: Austin Peay by 1
Vegas Line: Chattanooga by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Austin Peay (+2 1/2)
Game 547-548: Fairfield at Rutgers (7:30 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 57.018; Rutgers 57.579
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 3
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (+3)
Game 549-550: Siena at Minnesota (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 59.791; Minnesota 74.227
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-12 1/2)
Game 561-562: Oakland at Ohio (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 56.515; Ohio 61.563
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 5
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NHL
Los Angeles at San Jose
The Kings look to build on their 7-3 record in their last 10 games as a road underdog from from +110 to +150. Los Angeles is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+115)
Game 1-2: New Jersey at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.380; Boston 9.973
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-170); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+150); Under
Game 3-4: Vancouver at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.081; Buffalo 11.311
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-120); Over
Game 5-6: Ottawa at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 12.617; Philadelphia 12.168
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+155); Over
Game 7-8: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.816; Pittsburgh 13.040
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-175); Under
Game 9-10: St. Louis at Colorado (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.100; Colorado 12.111
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-115); Over
Game 11-12: Los Angeles at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 12.412; San Jose 11.556
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+115); Under
Sam Martin
Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz
Prediction: Utah Jazz
We normally like to fade teams in their first game back from an extended road trip, but we're not stepping in front of this Utah train. The Jazz had a perfect four-game sweep of Miami, Orlando, Atlanta, and Charlotte, and now come back home to face an Oklahoma City team that played last night against the Spurs (lost by seven at home). The Jazz beat the Thunder by 21 points in the first week of the season, and now that they caught fire, we don't see Oklahoma City competing with them here, especially when traveling after playing yesterday. Jazz win this one easily.
John Ryan
New Orleans Hornets at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks
3* graded play on the Dallas Mavericks as they host the undefeated New Orleans Hornets set to start at 7 PM ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Dallas will win this game by more than five points. Hornets have won eight straight games and covered all of them and are the lone undefeated team in the NBA. They also have posted the best scoring differential in the Western Conference during this winning run. This will end tonight and I expect Dallas to give them a sound defeat from start to end. Dallas is a solid 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home game facing a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Moreover, Mavericks are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games playing on 2 days rest. Despite being early in the season Dallas as posted the third best scoring defense in the NBA allowing 91.5 points per game. This defense will disrupt the Hornets offensive flow. In addition, Dallas rebounds very well and this will limit second chance scoring opportunities. Dallas wins BIG!
VEGAS EXPERTS
New Orleans Hornets at Dallas Mavericks
The Hornets are indeed buzzing in NBA circles, off to an 8-0 SU/ATS start. This includes three outright dog wins and we expect the same tonight in Dallas where the Mavericks have been absolutely atrocious in the favorite role, going 13-31-2 ATS since the start of last season, including 0-3-1 ATS their last four this season.
Play on: New Orleans
Tony Karpinski
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Denver Nuggets +1
The Phoenix Suns are coming off a huge game last night where they hot 22 three point shots. The Nuggets have lost 11 straight times in Phoenix and haven't won since Carmelo Anthony's rookie season. The Suns starting center Robin Lopez sprained his left knee and didn't return for the second half Sunday and without him and Phoenix playing on the road last night and off a huge game I expect Denver to get a big road win tonight!
Rocketman
Pacific vs. Nevada
Play Pacific -4
Pacific is 33-13 SU as a favorite the past 3 years. Pacific is 6-2 ATS overall vs Nevada since 1997 and is 2-0 SU and ATS overall vs Nevada the past 3 years. Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Wolf Pack are 17-37 ATS in their last 54 games following a SU win. Wolf Pack are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. Wolf Pack are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big West. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Pacific tonight!
LT Profits
Pistons / Warriors Under 205
The Golden State Warriors probably like to play at the fastest pace in the NBA, but this has become such common knowledge that they are now playing to inflated totals in most of their games. Thus, the ‘under’ has gone 7-3 in all of their tip-offs so far, and that does not figure to change here vs. the slower paced Detroit Pistons at home in Oakland.
The NBA latest line from BetUS for this contest has the total at 205, with the betting odds set at -110.
Detroit games are only averaging a combined 195.2 points this season, mainly because their offense has only produced 95.4 points per game, which ranks 26th out of 30 NBA teams, and they rank 23rd in field foal percentage at 44.5 percent. Furthermore, those figures drop to 94.2 points and 44.2 percent on the road. Moreover, only one of the Pistons 10 games so far has gone over 200 points during regulation time, including none of their six road games
The Warriors are on a 5-1 run for the ‘under’, and the only ‘over’ during this stretch came vs. a New York Knicks team that plays no defense. They will also be without David Lee for this contest, as he injured his elbow vs. his old Knicks teammates, and his scoring has been missed while Golden State has gone ‘under’ in both of the two games he has missed so far.
Finally, looking at the head-to-head series, the ‘under’ is a perfect 4-0 in their last four NBA matchups, including the first meeting this season in Detroit, won by the Pistons 102-97 vs. a betting total of 209. In fact, in none of those last four encounters have both teams scored 100 points in the same game, and the 199 total points produced in the meeting earlier this month matched the highest output in any of those contests.
Look for a carbon copy thus evening, with the poor Detroit shooting making it difficult for the teams to reach even 200 points vs. these NBA betting odds.
BEN BURNS
New York Rangers @ Pittsburgh Penguins
PICK: Pittsburgh Penguins
Yesterday's "complimentary" play on New York resulted in a relatively painless winner. The Rangers won 8-2. Tonight's game figures to be far more challenging.
The Penguins have started to click. I had a "premium" play on them in their most recent home game and they rewarded me with a 5-1 victory. At the time, among other things, I noted the following: "...While its been a tough start here so far this season, keep in mind that the Pens were 25-12-4 here last season, 25-13-3 here in 2008 and 26-10-5 here in 2007. This is a team which has been consistently getting it done at home for years...."
Today, the Pens will be facing a team which played yesterday and which they have dominated for years. While the Rangers are already 0-3 this season after scoring four or more goals in their previous game, the Pens are 8-1 their last nine meetings in the series. Consider laying the wood.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Dallas Mavericks -4
With 2 full days to rest and prepare, I expect Dallas to hand the Hornets their first loss of the season.
The Mavericks are a strong 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games when playing on 2 days' rest. In addition, this is a matchup that has been dominated by the home team in recent years. In fact, the home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. It is also worth noting that the favorite is 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
Dallas has won 3 straight and 18 of its last 21 at home against the Hornets. 2 of those recent home wins have come by 8 points each. It is also worth noting that the Mavs have won by an average score of 98.0 to 90.0 in those 21 home games dating back to 1997. Lay the points with Dallas.
Info Plays
3* on Denver Nuggets PK
Reasons the Nuggets cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home favorites (PHOENIX) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog against opponent off an upset win as an underdog. This is a 63-25 ATS System hitting 71.6% since 1996.
2.) Huge letdown spot for Phoenix. The Suns made 22 3-point shots last night, just one shy of the NBA record, to beat the defending champion Lakers 121-116. They fail to show up tonight when Denver comes to town on a days' rest, while Phoenix plays on no rest off an emotional win. Bet the Nuggets on the road.