SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +9/+4.23 over CHARLOTTE
Kevin Love deserved all the praise in the world for his ridiculous 31-31 he put up against the Knicks on Friday. That put the Wolves in the national spotlight for a night and they responded by playing the Hawks close on the road yesterday. Over the last four games against the Lakers, Kings, Knicks and Hawks, Minnesota has gone 2-2 with their losses coming by an average of five points. They had a legitimate chance of beating the Lakers at the Staples Center and dominated New York and Sacramento. Kurt Rambis has taken a lot of deserved heat but he seems to finally have the Wolves playing good basketball. Former second overall pick Michael Beasley is averaging 30 points over the last four games and Kevin Love is averaging close to 21 rebounds a night. The rotation has been cut from 12 to eight and the starting lineup has remained consistent over the past four games. The Bobcats meanwhile are 3-8 but unlike Minnesota aren’t a young team with growing pains. No, this Charlotte team is coached by a Hall of Fame coach and doesn’t have any excuses for this start. Their three wins have come against the dregs of the Eastern Conference: Toronto, New Jersey and Washington. They have lost to Detroit and Milwaukee and haven’t won a home game yet. In no universe are the Bobcats a -500 favorite over any professional basketball team and they have the statistics to prove it. Charlotte is second to last in offense, fourth in turnovers, and dead last in field goals made. The Wolves have a great chance to win tonight and at this price it’s definitely worth a shot. We’ll play them outright for a unit and back it with the points. Play: Minnesota +4.23 (Risking 1 unit). Play Minnesota +9 (Risking 1.03 units to win 1).
BOSTON -½ +1.01 over New Jersey
The Bruins are in a bit of a funk right now but this team is too good for that to last too much longer. Boston is coming off back-to-back losses to Montreal and Ottawa and they’ve now lost four of its last five. That’s not such a bad thing, as you know for sure that can’t be sitting well with them. They’ll now catch a Devils squad that has been laboring all year and that’s extremely beatable because of shaky goaltending and a weak defense. New Jersey is coming off a 4-3 home OT win against the bottom feeding Oilers. They outshot Edmonton 39-24 but once again its goaltending gave the opposition a chance to win. The Devils have just three wins over its last 10 games and were beat by the Bruins earlier in the year by a score of 4-1. The Devils have allowed three goals or more in six straight and three goals by the Bruins here is very likely going to get us to the cashier’s cage. Don’t be surprised to see the hungry B’s score four or more. Play: Boston -½ +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +1.20 over SAN JOSE
The first of six meetings between these two rivals occurs tonight with the Kings on a serious roll. L.A. is playing some of the best hockey the city of Los Angeles has likely ever seen. Justin Williams and Anze Kopitar have been a tour de force, Jonathan Quick and Jonathan Bernier have been absolutely lights out (.944 and .922 SV%'s respectively), and their young blueline has stepped up to the plate by only allowing 28.1 shots against per game. L.A. has now won six in a row and eight of its last nine. Remarkably, the Kings have not allowed more than one goal against in any of its last five games. The Sharkies have struggled with consistency on a game-by-game basis this season. They’re careless in their own end and they’re allowing way too many opportunities. Furthermore, its goaltending duo of Nittymaki and Niemi is a roll of the dice every single night no matter who is in net. No longer can they rely on its goaltender to bail them out of some sloppy defensive play. No team in the NHL plays a more methodical, disciplined game than the Kings. They’ve been looking up at the Sharkies for years and this season they have a huge chance to reverse roles. Thus, this one is a statement game for both teams and with that in mind, give us the better team with the vastly superior defense and goaltending, throw in a tag and we’ll accept it every time. Play: Los Angeles +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
JR O'Donnell
ORL / MEM Over 200
The Orlando Magic are reeling right now and the Memphis Grizzlies check in @ a nice 60% ((Over Mark)) this young season. The Grizzlies match up well with these Magic and the Grizzlies can and will fill it up tonight. The Grizzlies will hit 100 and extend that Magic poor D streak to 3 bad outings as the Orlando Magic got toasted for 104 " Utah Jazz" and the "Toronto Raps" 110 @ home. Wow!! This free banger goes to the Over Magic/Grizzlies tonight!!! Memphis loves the Over as a road dog.. 6-2 Over the last 8!!
Lenny Del Genio
Denver +1.5
Total letdown spot for the Suns, who hit an incredible 22 three-pointers (franchise record) in last night's 121-116 win over the Lakers. This would be a lot more impressive if not for the fact that Denver also just beat LA, 118-112, and comes in as by far the more rested squad. In fact, that game was on Thursday! Rest tells the story tonight. Take Denver.
Joel Tyson
Philadelphia at WASHINGTON
I am thinking we are going to see some points.
I know the first meeting yielded just 29 combined points and an under, but Michael Vick was knocked out of that game, and Kevin Kolb was not ready when pressed into service. Both have been effective in the games since, and both are capable of putting some points on the scoreboard.
Philadelphia is on a 9-5 over run their last 14 away from home.
Series numbers show a pair of overs in last year's meetings, and 2 of the last 3 series meetings played in D.C. have also made their way over the posted total.
Going to look for tonight's game to feature some points.
Go over on Monday night!
4♦ OVER
Chuck O'Brien
Memphis (+8') at ORLANDO
Swept my two NFL free plays Sunday, as the Rams and Bengals both got inside the number despite losing outright.
Monday’s complimentary release comes from Orlando, as I’ll take the points with the Grizzlies at the Magic.
Just cannot trust the Magic right now as a favorite, especially when they’re giving this many points. Since starting the season with two spread-covers in their first three games – both times as a massive favorite – Orlando has failed to bring home the money in six straight games, all as a chalk of 6½ to 16½ points. The Magic have managed to win four of these games, but the last four victories were by a total of eight points.
Orlando’s big issue right now? It can’t put the ball in the hole, scoring between 91 and 94 points in four of their last five contests.
The Grizzlies are coming off a tough six-point overtime home loss to the Celtics, but they’ve still split their last four games, and they’re 5-5 ATS on the season (3-2 ATS on the road). Memphis has also been more than respectable against Orlando over the years, splitting the last 10 meetings and going 12-4 ATS in the last 16.
Yes, the Grizzlies haven’t had much interest in playing defense this year – they’re allowing more than 107 points per game – but who’s to say the Magic (who are shooting just 44 percent in their last five games) are going to take advantage of it? In contrast to Orlando, the Grizzlies are shooting 48 percent in their last five games while averaging 105.6 ppg, which is more than 10 ppg more than the Magic are putting up in their last five.
3♦ ORLANDO
Derek Mancini
Minnesota at CHARLOTTE (-9)
Now onto your free pick, as the Bobcats host the Timberwolves. Needless to say, this line sticks out like a sore thumb. Laying this many with a Charlotte team that is one loss better than Minnesota? Seems strange, but oddsmakers aren't in the habit of giving out charity, so I'm inclined to eat some chalk here.
Clearly, oddsmakers are begging for Minnesota money, and that immediately sends up red flags. So why Charlotte, and why by this much in this spot? Well, the first indicator is they'll match a franchise worst home losing streak if they lose tonight... I don't care what anyone says, but that's a big motivator, because the Bobcats have been known for their success at home, and they're damn proud of it. Expect a big-time resurgence from Charlotte tonight.
Next, consider the match ups. Yes, Love and Beasley are enjoying the best run of their young careers, but they'll have to contend with a stingy Bobcats defense and tough individual matchups as well. Wallace and Diaw are both solid, athletic defenders, who can and will step up the challenge of stopping two very hot, but also very inconsistent players. No definative word on Tyrus Thomas, who's dealing with a death in the family, but if he plays that match ups are even better. Between Love, Beasley and Telfair, the 'Wolves young core is very turnover prone and the Bobcats know that... Look for them to take advantage tonight.
Look guys, I'm keeping this play small because we're talking about two bad teams here, but fact remains this line is begging for Wolves money and I'm not taking the bait. Tremendously lopsided action on the road dog here, which tells me the public has fallen for the trap, but my clients and I know better. Lay it with Charlotte over Minnesota Monday.
1♦ CHARLOTTE
Scott Delaney
Denver at PHOENIX (-1)
I know this is a big chance with what could be a trap play on a team that just scored a surpring upset of the two-time defending champs, but the fact Denver has 11 straight times in the Land of Sun, well, I'm looking at the Suns tonight.
Both these teams have handed the Lakers back-to-back losses, including the Suns, who drained 22 three-pointers in last night's 121-116 win at Staples Center.
Now I don't expect the Suns to score like they did last night - at free will - but I do think the motivation will be there for them to engage in yet another high-scoring game with the similarly looking Nuggets.
Checking the betting numbers, to go along with Phoenix's 11-game home winning streak over the Nuggets, the Suns are on ATS streaks of 9-3 after a straight-up win, 6-1 when hosting a team with a losing road record and 5-2 versus the Northwest Division.
The Nuggets, meanwhile, are on spread slides of 3-13 on the road, 4-24 off an ATS cover and 1-7 after a straight-up victory.
Play the Suns here, as the home team has covered 12 of 15 meetings.
3♦ PHOENIX
Karl Garrett
Denver (+1) at PHOENIX
Forget about the fact the Suns have won the last 3 in the series, and 6 of the last 9, this game is all about timing, and tonight the rested and ready Nuggets will notch the road win over a tired Phoenix team.
The Suns were on court last night in Los Angeles avenging their playoff series loss to the Lakers with the hard-fought 121-116 road dog win. Phoenix has got to be a little fatigued, and also a little emotionally flat tonight, and Denver will be the benefactor.
The Nuggets have not played since last Thursday when they handed the Lakers their first loss of the season. The last time Denver was on the road, they were routed at Indiana - 4th game in 5 nights!
Tonight the fresh legs belong to the Nuggets, and Denver will snap their 3 game series losing streak.
Take Denver.
4♦ DENVER
Chris Jordan
Oklahoma City at UTAH (-6)
This is very cheap price for the Jazz, who have won five straight after losing three of their first five games.
A sixth straight win won't be an issue against an Oklahoma City team that lost 117-104 to San Antonio yesterday.
The Thunder are struggling defensively, as they're allowing 105.8 points per game to rank 26th in the NBA. And one night after giving up 117 to the aging Spurs, the Thunder now have to go into the altitude and run with a hot Jazz team, something that won't be easy.
Utah's run is actually part of a 7-1 winning streak, including a 120-99 blowout victory at Oklahoma City over this same Thunder team, on Oct. 31.
The Jazz are also on ATS streaks of 4-0 after a straight-up win, 4-1 against winning teams, 5-2 versus intradivision foes and 16-7 when laying points in this range at home.
Conversely, Okie City is in on ATS slides of 2-6 on the highway, 2-7 when playing on the second of back-to-back nights, 1-4 against Northwest foes and 1-6 after an ATS setback.
I'll play the Jazz in what should be a double-digit blowout.
4♦ UTAH
Stephen Nover
New Jersey at L.A. CLIPPERS (-2)
My free play from the Monday NBA menu is the Clippers at home against the Nets.
The Clippers are extremely motivated in this matchup as they try to avoid their worst start in 12 seasons. Injuries and overtime losses have hurt the Clippers.
Chris Kaman and Baron Davis remain out for LA, but underrated Eric Gordon is back. Rookie point guard Eric Bledsoe is improving every game replacing Davis, who is far to inconsistent for my taste. Bledsoe has a season-best 18 points, five assists and six rebounds in his last game, an overtime loss to Detroit this past Friday.
The Nets lost for the fifth time in their last six games this past Saturday to Orlando. The Nets have injuries, too, with swingman Terrence Williams out with an abdominal strain and Troy Murphy dealing with a sore foot.
New Jersey is improved, but the Nets have no answer for Blake Griffin, the best player on the court. He has five double-doubles this season.
The Nets traditionally struggle on the West Coast. They have lost six straight road games to the Clippers, going 1-5 ATS.
1♦ CLIPPERS
Bobby Maxwell
Valparaiso (+25) at KANSAS
For my comp selection, now I’m not talking crazy like thinking Valparaiso can come out and beat the Jayhawks in Kansas and snap their 60-game home winning streak. But I do see Valparaiso getting inside the number here.
Kansas beat Longwood 113-75 in their opener on Friday and got 18 points from Marcus Morris and 15 points and 15 rebounds from his twin brother Markieff Morris. Marcus is the team’s leading returning scorer and rebounder and is one of just two returning starters for the Jayhawks. There are a lot of new faces in the Kansas lineup and that is going to contribute to them not being able to cover this huge number tonight.
Valparaiso opened Friday with a 111-64 win over IU Northwest and they have four starters back in the lineup and 10 players back from last season’s team. Back is 82.8 percent of its scoring from a year ago and 91.2 percent of its rebounding. Brandon Wood had 20 points in the opener and he was the Horizon League Newcomer of the Year last year at 17.7 points per game. Valpo also has 7-foot-1 redshirt freshman center Hrvoje Vucic who could cause some problems on the glass for the Jayhawks.
The Crusaders are on ATS surges of 10-4 overall, 6-2-1 on the road and 8-2-1 against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, Kansas is just 5-11 in its last 16 overall, 3-7 at home and 0-4 in non-conference games.
Go ahead and grab all the points and play Valpo. They will get inside and cash our ticket.
2♦ VALPARAISO
Wunderdog
Tulane vs. Georgetown
Play: Georgetown -22.5
The Georgetown Hoyas won their opener at Old Dominion, and beat the Monarchs handily in a game most thought they could get upset. The Hoyas have Austin Freeman who many pick to be the Big East Player of the Year. Freeman is flanked by Clark and Wright, and their trio of big-time scorers, which is more than Tulane will be able to handle. The Green Wave won their opener, which was a layup, but things will be different here vs. the Hoyas. The Green Wave will be facing matchup problems all over the court, and Georgetown should score a huge fast-break advantage as well as a large offensive rebounding advantage. That should be enough to propel them to a blow-out win. Georgetown wins and covers.
Matt Fargo
St. John's @ Saint Mary's
PICK: St. John's +4
This is a very late start, or early start depending upon your schedule as this one tips off at 2:00 AM ET as part of the 24-hour college hoops marathon on ESPN. St. John’s has the makeup of a team that can be a sleeper in the Big East Conference this season as it brings back all five starters from last season as well as nine seniors on the roster which is the most of any team in the entire country. A team with that type of experience would dominate most conferences but the Big East is a different story.
While there may be some problems come conference season, playing out of conference is where the Red Storm will need to consistently win. This is where coaching can play a big role and St. John’s landed a guy that can carry them over that hump. Steve Lavin left the ESPN studios after seven years and is back in coaching and he is ready to put St. John’s back on the map. He is already getting blue chip recruits to stay home in NYC which helps going forward but he loves the team he has right now.
While St. John’s is stacked, St. Mary’s is going to go through a transition. There are still solid players for the Gaels but after losing Patty Mills two years ago, they have to move on without Omar Samhan this year and he will be tough to replace. The backcourt is now the strength of the Gaels and this is not a good matchup for them. D.J. Kennedy is a First Team All-Big East guard that does everything as he led the team in most every category a season ago. St. Mary’s will have its hand full.
Picked to finish sixth in the Big East preseason coaches' poll, which is a very solid ranking in that conference, the Red Storm will offer St. Mary's its first big test of the season after the Gaels beat College of Idaho 86-42 in their season opener. A win under their belts is good but now it is a different story. They made it to the Sweet 16 last season and that means two things. The line value we get is excellent early in the season as the public remembers that as well as other teams no longer taking the Gaels lightly. 3* St. John’s Red Storm
Dave Price
1 Unit on Timberwolves/Bobcats OVER 197
Charlotte is 13-4 OVER in home games when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points since the beginning of last season. The Bobcats have struggled to score the basketball at times this season, but they should have no problem tonight against a Minnesota team allowing 112.1 ppg on the road. Bet the Over.
Black Widow
1* on Golden State Warriors -6
Golden State is in a great spot tonight, primed to give better effort than Detroit en route to a blowout home win. the Warriors are coming off back-to-back losses, both on the road, so they'll be very happy to return home tonight. The Warriors are 4-0 at home this season, winning by 8.7 points/game on average. Detroit is primed for a letdown with what has taken place leading up to this contest. The Pistons will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight and their 3rd game in 4 days. They did beat the Clippers and Kings on the road coming in, but it will be tough for them to bring 100% effort to the floor tonight playing on such little rest. No way can they keep up with this young, determined Warriors team tonight who love to run the floor. The Warriors are 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. Golden State is 27-12 ATS (+13.8 Units) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The Pistons are 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons. Detroit's brutal schedule catches up with them tonight. Take Golden State and lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Phoenix Suns pk
Phoenix may be coming off a big win over the Lakers last night, but I don't foresee a letdown - not against Denver. The Suns have had Denver's number, winning each of the last 3 meetings by at least 12 points. The Suns are a perfect 4-0 at home against the Nuggets the last 2 seasons, and 21-5 at home against Denver since 1996. Denver is just 15-38 ATS in its last 53 road games versus explosive offensive teams scoring 103+ points/game. Take the Suns at home.
Jack Jones
Timberwolves/Bobcats UNDER 197
This total has been set far too high tonight in Charlotte. The Charlotte Bobcats are only scoring 91.8 PPG this season while allowing 94.6 PPG overall. That's an average of 186.4 PPG in 10 games this season. The Bobcats and their opponents have combined to score 197 or less points in 8 straight games. I do not expect the Timberwolves to be very sharp tonight, especially playing on no rest after a loss to the Atlanta Hawks Sunday. The UNDER is 4-1 in Minnesota's last 5 games overall.
Minnesota is scoring just 94.7 PPG on the road this season through 7 games. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Timberwolves last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The UNDER is 7-2 in Timberwolves last 9 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Charlotte has allowed 98 or less points in 8 straight games, while scoring 95 or less in 7 of their last 8. Clearly the value in this game is with the UNDER based on the way the Bobcats have been playing. Roll with the UNDER Monday.