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Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, November 16,2009

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Michael Cannon

Miami OH +18' at KENTUCKY

I’m 28-14-1 with my last 43 overall free plays.

Take the points with Miami (OH) on the road over Kentucky.

I know Kentucky is ranked No. 4 in the country and the Wildcats faithful are buzzing about the hiring of John Calipari, but there is still a bit of a transition period as the team gets used to the new system and the new coach gets a feel for his players.

Miami (OH) has the advantage at point guard, where senior Kenny Hayes comes back after a medical redshirt last season. I know Kentucky has the consensus No. 1 prospect in John Wall, but he is a freshman and they normally don’t walk right in and dominate, at least not from the point guard position.

This is a lot of points for the young Wildcats to cover this early in the season.

Take the points with Miami (OH) as they stay within the number.

2♦ MIAMI (OH)

 
Posted : November 16, 2009 8:03 am
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Tony Weston

What the hell happened to the Saints yesterday? There is no way in hell that game should have been that close. Unfortunately it was and I end up taking the loss on that one.

That’s fine because I’m delivering tonight as I’m taking the Mavericks on the road at the Milwaukee Bucks.

Dallas comes into this game playing strong basketball so far this early season. The team is 7-3 SU and ATS and has covered in 4 of its 6 games on the road. In their last 2 road games, at Minnesota and at Detroit the Mavs won by an average of 8.5 points per game.

Also consider that the Mavs have gone 4-1 SU and ATS their last 5 games, beating their opponents by almost 10 points per game (103.4-92.6).

Dallas will do it again and get over on the Bucks in this one tonight.

3♦ MAVERICKS

 
Posted : November 16, 2009 8:03 am
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EZWINNERS
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Auburn Tigers @ Missouri State Bears
Play: Auburn Tigers -4
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Auburn was lucky to get a win against a very good Niagara team in their opener, but they are facing a weak opponent in this game. The Missouri State Bears only return two starters from a team that went 11-20 last season and lost by 15 points at Auburn last season. I don't expect the Tigers to win by 15 here, mostly due to the fact that they are a poor free throw shooting team, but I do expect them to get the cover. Missouri State is 0-6 against the spread in their last six games against the SEC. Lay the points.

 
Posted : November 16, 2009 8:55 am
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LT Profits
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Anaheim Ducks @ Pittsburgh Penguins
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The Pittsburgh Penguins defeated the Anaheim Ducks 4-3 at the Pond in Anaheim earlier this month, and we now look for a similarly high scoring game in the rematch in the Igloo in Pittsburgh.

The Penguins had been struggling to score goals, but they received a big boost on Saturday night when Evgeni Malkin returned to the lineup. The dividends were immediate, as Pittsburgh won a wild 6-5 overtime contest over the Boston Bruins here at home.
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Sure, the Penguins still have a rather long injury list, but the return of Malkin was most key as he fortifies the line with Sidney Crosby, forcing opposing defenses to respect him and not double or even triple team the Next One. The Stanley Cup Champion Penguins are averaging only 2.90 goals per game due to their injuries, but that can be expected to rise steadily as they get their players back, so the six-goal outburst Saturday may be a precursor of things to come.
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The Ducks were involved in a shootout themselves on Saturday, as they lost 7-4 to the Red Wings in Detroit. Anaheim has been surprisingly bad defensively so far, surrendering 3.33 goals per game overall, and the last thing they want to see right now is a healthy Malkin alongside Crosby. The Ducks are scoring some goals lately though, lighting the lamp at least four times in three of their last five games.

With both offenses improving steadily, we look to take advantage here as the Over in this case may be a tad undervalued.
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Pick: Ducks/Penguins Over 5.5

 
Posted : November 16, 2009 8:56 am
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Jimmy Moore
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Baltimore @ Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland +10.5
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If the Browns are ever going to make any kind of statement this season this game sets them up for it. They are playing as double digit home divisional dogs and they are coming off of a bye week. They have all the advantages from the schedule maker and with the Ravens having their next 2 games at home against the Colts and Steelers it will be easy to see them looking past this game. Take the points with the Brownies in this one.

 
Posted : November 16, 2009 8:57 am
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Randall the Handle

Anaheim +1.38 over PITTSBURGH

Every once in awhile the Ducks feel like showing up and they’ll dominate play and pick up a win. There’s no denying this team is underachieving because they’re loaded with talent and after losses to New Jersey, Detroit and Columbus there’s no better time for the Ducks to show up. They played the Penguins in Anaheim on Nov. 4 and lost 4-3 but they were all over the Pens in the final 10 minutes and it was a minor miracle that they did not score to tie it up. The Pens picked up a much-needed win on Saturday when they scored with one second left in the third and subsequently won it in OT. That win followed a four-game losing streak in which the Pens scored three times in four games. Pittsburgh is the walking wounded with Gonchar, Letang, Tyler Kennedy, Brooks Orpik, Maxime Talbot and now Chris Kunitz joins that group on the mattress. It might not end there either.

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports the following: Defenseman Alex Goligoski, who is the Penguins' No. 3 scorer and averages more than 23 minutes of ice time per game, left the ice late in the third period of their 6-5 overtime victory against Boston Saturday night with what appeared to be a problem in his upper left leg. He sat out yesterday's practice at Mellon Arena, and his status for tonight's game against Anaheim is uncertain.

The Penguins are not even close to being the same team with all these key injuries. They’re very beatable and after an emotional win over the Bruins they should be very beatable again. Remember, Boston was struggling miserable to score but against a bunch of minor-league defenseman filling in for Pitt they popped in five. The Ducks could match that number. Play: Anaheim +1.38 (Risking 2 units).

Tampa Bay +1.10 over PHOENIX

Check out this classic match-up, will ya? The Coyotes vs the Lightning will get less coverage than a hotdog-eating contest. I’m just thankful I don’t make a living scalping tickets in Phoenix. The Coyotes have been home for eight days and have played just twice over that stretch and when you take a bunch of young kids hanging out in the sweet sunshine for an extended period of time, an eight-day home stand with little activity cannot be beneficial. Phoenix has just two wins over its last six games and while this team is gritty and usually tough to beat, this is not a good spot for them. They seldom see the Lightning and one would have to trust that the joint will be near empty tonight as well. The Bolts embark on a four-game trip starting here and often you’ll see teams play their best in the first game of a trip. Tampa has picked up points in five straight games and was robbed on Saturday against the Kings when they scored a disallowed goal in OT that should’ve counted. The Lightning are the hotter team in a much better spot. Play: Tampa Bay +1.10 (Risking 2 units).

 
Posted : November 16, 2009 11:34 am
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Scott Spreitzer
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Indiana State at LSU
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Those in Mo-Valley circles refer to the Sycamores as "Creighton-east." That's because former Creighton star-forward and long-time CU assistant coach Kevin McKenna has transformed ISU into a program modeled after his mentor, Blue Jay coach Dana Altman. The Sycamores experienced some trouble through the first half of last season and most of it was due to off-court problems. But as the key players got back on the court, ISU began to flourish. They finished the season on a 7-2 run and have plenty of hope for this season. It all starts with Jake Kelly. The transfer earned All-Big 10 Honorable Mention as a sophomore at Iowa. He and his mates are off to a great start this season and bring a loaded backcourt and four returning starters to Pete Maravich Center. ISU unloaded on Nebraska-Kearney in their opener and will take on an LSU team that turned the ball over 13 times in a win over UL-Monroe. 13 may not sound like a lot, but it is when you consider the competition. This is going to be a tough season for the Tigers who lose four of their top players from last year's squad, including Marcus Thornton and his 21 ppg. The Tiger backcourt and bench are both hamstrung to start the new season, and I believe they'll struggle tonight. An outright upset would not surprise me, but I'll gladly take the points for insurance. Indiana State, plus the points on Monday.
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Play on: Indiana State

 
Posted : November 16, 2009 11:35 am
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VEGAS EXPERTS
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Dallas Mavericks at Milwaukee Bucks
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Home sides have won five straight in this head-to-head series, covering the last four, with Milwaukee going 9-2 ATS at the Bradley Center L11 vs. the Mavs. Time for Dallas to turn the tables as a small road favorite as they are 9-1 ATS on the road if they were a road favorite in their last game. Road teams playing their fourth road game in seven nights in the month of November are 42-16 ATS, provided the line is between +3 and -3.
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Play on: Dallas

 
Posted : November 16, 2009 11:36 am
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MATT FARGO
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Cal State Fullerton @ UCLA
PICK: Cal Fullerton +16
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UCLA could be a team in transition this season. The Bruins lost four starters including over 60 percent of their scoring and rebounding as well as their best defenders. The leading returning scorer only 9.4 ppg and he's coming back from a fractured thumb that put him well behind in fall drill and workouts. They will have a very inexperienced player at point guard and that is just the opposite of what we have seem from the Bruins in past years as that had been the glue that holds the team together. UCLA brought in a very strong recruiting class but this team is extremely young and that means some early season struggles are bound to happen. As an example, it the Bruins first exhibition game, they were nearly upset by Concordia, an NAIA team, and then playing a close game for the majority of the time against Humboldt St. in the second exhibition. If those two schools can keep it close, imagine what an experienced team can do. The Titans lost the best player in the Big West Conference in Josh Akognon as his 23.9 ppg have moved on. The good news for CS-Fullerton is that it returns all of the other four starters and that may actually make it a better team as there is more balance and a strong frontcourt will be featured more. The Titans defeated Hope in their opener this season and they cannot be compared to the Bruins but the opening result was good. CS-Fullerton shot 61.5 percent from the floor in that game and 10 different players saw at least 13 minutes of playing time. There is no star for the Titans but the added depth and balance is what the strengths are this season. It needs to be pointed out that the Bruins have been pretty banged up this preseason and the lack of practice time has wreaked havoc on a young team trying to iron out head coach Ben Howland's intense defensive system. They are having trouble defending the dribble and up top is where all of the defensive problems can really hurt since it is like a domino effect going down. Fullerton falls into a solid early season situation as well. Play on any team that is coming off a win by 20 points or more, and that has three or more starters returning from last year than its opponent, in the first ten games of the season. This situation is 64-31 ATS (67.4 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, CS-Fullerton is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games following a game where it scored 80 or more points. 3* CS-Fullerton Titans

 
Posted : November 16, 2009 11:37 am
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Tom Freese
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Dallas Mavericks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Under 191
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Milwaukee is 6-1 UNDER their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and they are 6-2-1 UNDER their last 9 games overall. The Bucks are 5-1 UNDER on Monday and they are 5-2-1 UNDER off a straight up win. Dallas is 16-5 UNDER their last 21 games with no rest and they are 5-0 UNDER when their starters combined to play 160 minutes in their last game. The Mavericks are 37-17-1 UNDER their last 55 games as road favorites and they are 8-2 UNDER last 10 Monday games. PLAY ON 'UNDER

 
Posted : November 16, 2009 11:38 am
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Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Atlanta Hawks -3
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Bottom Line: Portland would love to avenge a Nov. 3rd loss to the Hawks tonight, but I just don't see it happening. This will be the Blazers' 5th road game in the last 7 nights so I expect them to be a little road weary here. Atlanta is 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS this season, including 4-0 SU & ATS at home where it is winning by an average of 17.5 ppg. The Blazers have won 5 straight on the road, but these wins have come against OKC, Memphis, Minnesota, New Orleans, and Charlotte. The Blazers take a huge step up in competition level tonight and I don't see them coming out alive. The Hawks are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite and they get my support for 1 unit tonight.

 
Posted : November 16, 2009 11:39 am
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JR TIPS
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BOBCATS at MAGIC
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The Orlando Magic are about to get an offensive boost from the return of Rashard Lewis and Ryan Anderson along with a visit from the Charlotte Bobcats who are looking at a fifth straight loss and major problems scoring.Lewis averaged 19.0 points in last season's playoffs as Orlando and is a two-time All-Star.The Magic have struggled in four games without Anderson, averaging 87.0 points and shooting 27.9 percent from beyond the arc but Orlando has stepped up it up defensively. Dwight Howard had five blocks to go with 26 points and the Magic held New Jersey to 32.9 percent shooting in an 88-72 win Friday.Orlando has struggled offensively lately but the Bobcats have struggled to score all season as the Bobcats average a league-worst 82.4 points and have scored fewer than 80 five times, including each of their two latest losses. Charlotte shot 36.6 percent Saturday night against visiting Portland in an 80-74 defeat which was their fourth in a row. Charlotte has rarely been competitive at Amway Arena as the Bobcats are 1-9 all-time in Orlando and have dropped eight straight there by an average of 15.3 points.Howard averaged 23.8 points, 16.8 rebounds and 3.4 blocks during those eight matchups and Lewis scored 17.3 points a game on 38.6 percent shooting in three contests against Charlotte last season. With Lewis and Anderson back tonight so is the Orlando offense which means the Bobcats who can"t score over 80 points no chance.
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TAKE ORLANDO -11.5

 
Posted : November 16, 2009 11:40 am
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Randall the Handle
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Ravens @ Browns
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Not sure how it’s possible but the Browns keep getting worse. They’ve passed for a combined 261 yards in their previous three games. On the season, they’ve scored a puny 78 points. To put that into perspective, even the stagnant Redskins have scored 35 more points. On defense, Cleveland has relinquished 209 points to its opponents, ranking ahead of only Detroit and Tennessee. The 4-4 Ravens can ill afford to take this game lightly after a grueling month that has put them behind the 8-ball. First encounter provided a 34-3 Baltimore romp. Expect a similar result.
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TAKING: Baltimore –10½

RISKING: 2.06 units to win 2

 
Posted : November 16, 2009 11:41 am
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SPORTS WAGERS
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ATLANTA –4 over Portland
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No doubt the Blazers are among the elite teams in the business but this is the last game of a five-game trip and it’ll be its fifth game in seven days. Sure, they’ll want to go home with a sweep, as they’ve won the previous four but the Hawks will definitely have something to say about that. Atlanta, too, is making name for itself with a 8-2 record, four wins in a row and six wins in its last seven. This is a wickedly good team that is coming off an easy 30-point win over the lifeless Hornets in a game in which Atlanta barely broke a sweat. The Hawks have road wins in Boston among others and they also have a six-point win in Portland. The Hawks have five starters capable of putting up 20 points a game and that makes them a very difficult team to defend. Atlanta is an incredible 8-1 against the number in its last nine and while you can’t give the Blazers too many points, this is a great spot for the Hawks and a very cheap lay. Play: Atlanta –4 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

 
Posted : November 16, 2009 11:41 am
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Jimmy the Moose
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Edmonton Oilers at Columbus Blue Jackets
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The Edmonton Oilers are averaging 2.8 GPG while giving up 3.05. Edmonton has played over the total in 10 of their last 13 games vs. a team from the Western Conference. In their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record the over is 8-3. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a team from the Central Division.

The Blue Jackets have the offensive power to light it up and vs. a tired Edmonton team you can expect them to score a few goals. The over is 8-3 in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. In their last 6 games as a home favorite between -151 and -200 the over is 4-1-1.
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The over is 4-1 in the last -5 meetings between the clubs and tonight's game will have the same results.
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Play the Oilers/Blue Jackets Over

 
Posted : November 16, 2009 11:50 am
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