Drew Gordon
Portland at ATLANTA -4
Now 4-1 L5 Free Play releases! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Trail Blazers/Hawks match up.
Liking the Hawks here, as they host a Trail Blazers team finishing up a very succesful road trip (4-0 SUATS so far). For as good as Portland has been of late, consider their competition in their last 4 games: Memphis, Minnesota, New Orleans, and Charlotte... Not exactly the cream of the NBA crop! They face a much stiffer test tonight, as Atlanta has also won and covered 4 in a row, but wins vs Denver & at Boston are much more impressive than anything the Blazers have done.
The difference here is offense, as the Hawks are firing on all cylinders, putting up 108 ppg on 49% shooting over their L5 games, as compared to just 96 ppg for the Blazers. Roy and Aldridge have been great (as expected), but everyone else has been ho-hum. Also, do not underestimate the injury to Travis Outlaw, who is one of the more underraed SF in the NBA, and a KEY contributor off the bench for Portland (4th in scoring, 3rd in blocks, 5th in rebounding).
Finally, we've seen over their L2 meetings - both Hawks wins and covers - that Atlanta does match up well with Portland. Both teams are extremely athletic, but the Hawks have the edge overall, as Bibby, Johnson, and Horford should all win their match ups, while Josh Smith and Brandon Roy will cancel each other out. In the end, the Hawks enjoy a strong situational edge (Blazers final game of their road trip), and the fact Portland has been cruising past cupcakes over their L4 games should only help the more motivated/focused home team here.
Take Atlanta over Portland in this NBA match up.
2♦ ATLANTA
John Ryan Sports
Game: Virginia Cavaliers @ South Florida Bulls
Pick: South Florida Bulls -3.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on South Florida as they host Virginia set to start at 7:30 EST. AIS shows a 70% probability that SF will win this game by 5 or more points. AIS shows a 92% probability that UVA will score 61 to 66 points. Note that SF is a solid 41-18 ATS (+21.2 Units) when they allow 61 to 66 points in a game since 1997. Supporting this graded play further is a series of game dependent angles working against UVA. Note that UVA is just 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997; 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997; 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) after a game outrebounding opponent by 15 or more since 1997.
Wunderdog Sports
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Phoenix Coyotes
Play: Phoenix Coyotes
The Tampa Bay Lightning have been flawless at home and now head to Phoenix as a road team that is not nearly as potent, entering here at 2-4-2 on the road. The Lightning is outscoring opponents by seven goals on the season on home ice, but on the road they have been getting blitzed as they have been outscored by a 2-1 ratio, at 15 for and 30 against. The Lightning’s woes as a dog are epidemic as they are a woeful 25-71 in their last 96. The Coyotes are taking care of business on home ice at 11-5 in their last 16 will pin yet another loss on a dog with little bite. I’m Phoenix in this one.
Lenny Del Genio
Virginia at South Florida
Prediction: S Florida
Virginia is kind of a mess right now for 1st year HC Tony Bennett, who came over from Wazzu and is already threatening to play his personnel based on whether or not they want to play defense the way he was used to seeing it in Pullman. That would be fine if not for the fact that the Cavs best interior defender is suspended and USF big man Gilchrist is a Maryland transfer and comes off a 25-point performance in the opener vs. SMU. UVA is 39-61 ATS as a road dog since '97, including 10-25 ATS if getting six points or less. Take South Florida.