Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, November 18

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

SMU at Arkansas
The Razorbacks host an SMU team that is coming off an 89-58 win over Rhode Island last Monday and is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU victory of more than 20 points. Arkansas is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Razorbacks favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick:: Arkansas (-3)

Game 513-514: Cleveland State at Eastern Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 54.837; Eastern Michigan 52.470
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State

Game 515-516: Miami (FL) at College of Charleston (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 63.614; College of Charleston 54.084
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: College of Charleston by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (+1 1/2)

Game 517-518: SMU at Arkansas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 58.170; Arkansas 67.919
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 3
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (-3)

Game 519-520: AR-Little Rock at Middle Tennessee State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: AR-Little Rock 49.336; Middle Tennessee State 59.503
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 10
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 12
Dunkel Pick: AR-Little Rock (+12)

Game 521-522: Portland at Michigan State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 48.956; Michigan State 75.771
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 27
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 21
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-21)

Game 523-524: Arkansas State at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 52.365; Colorado 63.493
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 11
Vegas Line: Colorado by 14
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (+14)

Game 525-526: Drexel vs. Elon (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drexel 55.204; Elon 49.053
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 6
Vegas Line: Drexel by 4
Dunkel Pick: Drexel (-4)

Game 527-528: Canisius at Rutgers (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 55.745; Rutgers 57.580
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 2
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (+7 1/2)

Game 529-530: McNeese State vs. Georgia State (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: McNeese State 44.368; Georgia State 53.151
Dunkel Line: Georgia State by 9
Vegas Line: Georgia State by 15
Dunkel Pick: McNeese State (+15)

Game 533-534: NC-Asheville at Duke (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Asheville 49.031; Duke 74.149
Dunkel Line: Duke by 25
Vegas Line: Duke by 28 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC-Asheville (+28 1/2)

Game 535-536: Norfolk State vs. East Carolina (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Norfolk State 50.848; East Carolina 59.141
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 1
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-1)

Game 539-540: Fairleigh Dickinson at Arizona (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairleigh Dickinson 32.232; Arizona 73.059
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 41
Vegas Line: Arizona by 37
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-37)

Game 541-542: The Citadel at Tennessee (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: The Citadel 40.556; Tennessee 69.457
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 29
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 27 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-27 1/2)

Game 543-544: SE Missouri State at Ball State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SE Missouri State 54.159; Ball State 52.454
Dunkel Line: SE Missouri State by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Ball State by 1
Dunkel Pick: SE Missouri State (+1)

Game 545-546: Monmouth at Seton Hall (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Monmouth 41.120; Seton Hall 62.753
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 21 1/2
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 19
Dunkel Pick: Seton Hall (-19)

Game 547-548: Southern Mississippi at North Dakota State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 63.527; North Dakota State 60.701
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 3
Vegas Line: North Dakota State by 5
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (+5)

Game 549-550: Samford at UL-Monroe (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Samford 47.249; UL-Monroe 44.221
Dunkel Line: Samford by 3
Vegas Line: UL-Monroe by 3
Dunkel Pick: Samford (+3)

Game 551-552: Idaho State at San Francisco (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 42.245; San Francisco 60.619
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 17
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-17)

Game 553-554: Southern Utah at California (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 41.702; California 65.267
Dunkel Line: California by 23 1/2
Vegas Line: California by 26
Dunkel Pick: Southern Utah (+26)

Game 555-556: Sacramento State at UCLA (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento State 41.915; UCLA 67.618
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 25 1/2
Vegas Line: UCLA by 23
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-23)

Game 561-562: Vermont at Providence (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vermont 49.223; Providence 68.889
Dunkel Line: Providence by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Providence by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Providence (-12 1/2)

Game 563-564: Texas Southern at Texas Tech (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Southern 55.737; Texas Tech 55.193
Dunkel Line: Texas Southern by 1
Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas Southern (+6 1/2)

Jimmy Boyd

Drexel -4

Elon showed us just how bad they are when they were crushed by Charlotte last Friday. They blew an early lead and could never work their way back into the game. Drexel on the other hand has performed consistently well this season. They were within five points against UCLA, a game that was played on the road. They also crushed Illinois State in their last game. This is a neutral court game, so Elon won't benefit from home field advantage.

Drexel's strength of schedule through the first few games of the season has been much more difficult than Elon's, and they have played substantially better in those games. Elon's success relies heavily on their rebounding ability and they are clearly outmatched in this game. Elon is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games when they are coming off two straight games with nine or less offensive rebounds over the last two seasons.

Brandon Shively

Charlotte Bobcats vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Charlotte Bobcats +12

The Bobcats come into tonight's game with a 3-1-1 ATS road record. They beat Cleveland , Boston, and the Knicks all SU on the road and I feel they have the talent to hang in this game tonight.

The Bulls are coming off a Big early season revenge win vs. the Pacers on Saturday night, and I also feel that they will not play with 100% intensity tonight as a bit of a let-down is expected. The Bulls are 4-0 SU and ATS their last 4 games which has further driven this line to double digits.

Al Jefferson has been slowed this year with a wobbly ankle and he is listed as questionable for this game. Please check your current injury report. Jefferson is a beast as he is leading the team in points and rebounds in the 3 games he has played this year. Jefferson gives the Bobcats a legit threat in the post.

If Jefferson is listed as 'expected to play', then I advise making a play on Charlotte +12 tonight.

Trends:
• Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Central.
• Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
• Bulls are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southeast.

Art Aronson

Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder -9

The Denver Nuggets (4-5) come off a 111-122 loss at the Houston Rockets. Ty Lawson had 27 points and 17 assists while the next highest scorers for the team where J.J Hickson and Wilson Chandler who had 14 points apiece. The Oklahoma City Thunder (6-3) returns home after finishing a tough road trip on a high note, taking out the Milwaukee Bucks 92-72. Russell Westbrook scored 26 points while Kevin Durant had 24 in the win. The Thunder is a perfect 3-0 in home games this season while the Nuggets are just 1-3 on the road. The Thunder lost two big road games against conference opponents in the Clippers and the Warriors on the road will be looking to make a statement here against a Nuggets team that gave them some problems last season. OKC has revenge on its’ mind after dropping a 114-104 game at home the last time out. This Nuggets team does not have the bite it had last season and I expect the Thunder to walk all over them. Lay the points here.

Rob Vinciletti

Warriors vs. Jazz
Play: Over 195½

This is a right back rematch game for these two as Golden St put away the Jazz 102-88 on Saturday night at home. Now they travel into Utah for the back end of this home and home and we have a nice totals system that has flown over 11 of 12 times since 2004 and plays to the over for road favorites that have 1 day of rest and scored 90 or more as a home favorite and lost to the spread, vs an opponent like the Jazz that are off a road loss and ats win while scoring 90 or less. Look for an up tempo game resulting in an over here tonight. Monday night Football Game of the Month with 2 Never lost Indicators and a big Monday night specific system and the 25-1 Double system NBA 5* Dog start the week off. Congrats to those who cashed with us with the Over in the Detroit at Pitt game part of a big Sunday. Tonight we get the early Jump. Get on these two now. For the free play take the Over in the Golden St at Utah game. RV

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Charlotte Bobcats at Chicago Bulls
Pick: Chicago Bulls

Charlotte hits the road for just one game after a home loss on Saturday to the Miami Heat, 97-81. The Bobcats play their third game in four nights here against the Bulls. So far this season they have been in this spot three previous times and are 0-3 S/U & ATS. In fact, they haven't really been close in those games, as the club's bench becomes a factor. The Cats have four players averaging double figures with Kemba Walker leading the team with a 15.4 ppg average. Meanwhile, Derrick Rose and the Chicago Bulls ended the Indiana Pacers perfect season with a 110-94 win on Saturday. After a slow 1-3 start to the season the Bulls have rattled off a 4-0 S/U and ATS run. The defense has held three of the last four opponents to 81 points or fewer. The Bulls are also a perfect 4-0 at home S/U and 3-1 ATS this season. I don't see Charlotte getting many points here against this stingy Bulls defense.

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CAROLINA -3 over New EnglandFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We’re posting this one today to give you an opportunity to buy at the best number. You may even find a -2½ if you play it today. Tomorrow, there will be no 2½’s left. We’re suggesting this is a huge underlay. Against any other team on the same talent level as the Patriots, Carolina would be double the price (-6) here. The Panthers are on a five game winning streak and while many of those wins came against bottom-feeders, winning in San Francisco was impressive and put a stamp of legitimacy to what the Panthers have been accomplishing. And it’s not like they have just been getting by those bottom feeders. They have torched them all. The Panthers can beat you in so many ways. They can run, they can pass, they have a running QB that can ran or pass and they have perhaps the top defense in the NFL. The Panthers are a legit Super Bowl contender and now they get to strut their stuff in a rare home game on Monday Night Football. The only thing that will prevent them from winning here is being a little too jacked up. If the Panthers come in even-keeled they should have little trouble disposing of a very average Patriot team.
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New England is 0-4 ATS the spread and 1-3 straight up following their bye week over the past four seasons. Playing on Monday Night Football or on Sunday night is old school for the Patriots so it’s nothing new to get excited about. The Patriots just gave up 31 points to the Steelers. The week before, they were down 14-0 at home to the Dolphins. The week before that they lost to the Jets. New England has a 2-point win over Buffalo, a 3-point win over the Jets, a 7-point win over Atlanta and another absolute miracle win over the Saints. The Patriots have played perhaps the NFL’s easiest schedule to date against a slew of teams with QB issues. When facing Matty Ice and Drew Brees, the only two consistent QB’s they have faced this season, the Pats defense was torched. They were also torched by Big Ben last week. Lastly, the Patriots have the Broncos on deck in New England next week on Sunday night in another Peyton Manning/Tom Brady classic. The situation, the talent, home field and current form all favor the better squad and we’re as a result, we’re happy to lay this cheap price.

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Charlotte +11½ over CHICAGOFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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In this day and age of Twitter, social media and extensive coverage of every pro sports team, things often get blown out of proportion, as so happened when the Bulls lost three of their first four games. For a team that was supposed to contend, that slow start prompted many questions from the media that the players had to answer, especially after they were whacked in Indiana by 16 points on November 6. However, four games later, the Bulls are now 5-3 and they capped it off with a big statement game on Saturday night with a payback win over the Pacers, handing Indiana its first loss of the season (110-94). Things are quiet again in Chicago. That sets this one up nicely for the dog to cover. The Bulls have nothing to prove here. They answered the bell when things were going poorly and they answered it loudly with that resounding win over the Pacers. After this game, the Bulls head out for a six-game road trip that starts in Denver on Thursday. In terms of situational betting, this is precisely the type of spot we look for when being offered double digits.

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Calgary +143 over WINNIPEGFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Jets are playing some decent hockey right now. They have won four of their past five games with only loss over that span occurring against a tough Wild outfit on Saturday. They were in that game too, eventually losing 2-1. That said, the Jets are much more appealing as a dog than they are as a favorite. Winnipeg is precisely the type of club that is capable of losing to anyone and they’re too big a risk to be spotting this type of weight with. The Jets also have some key injuries on the back end with Mark Stuart and Zach Bogosion joining Jacob Trouba and Paul Postma on the rack. It’s also worth noting that the Jets have Chicago up next.
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The Flames are in a funk. They’ve lost six straight and eight of their past nine but they’re on the verge of snapping out of it. They looked to be well on their way on Saturday night against the Oilers but a third period meltdown by their goaltender saw a 2-0 lead turn into a 4-2 setback. Calgary has played one of the toughest schedules in the NHL. Prior to losing to Edmonton, the Flames lost to Dallas, San Jose, Colorado, St. Louis, Minnesota and Chicago. That’s a difficult group for any squad. They were clearly the better team on Saturday night, as they took it to the Oilers right from the start. They also took both the Sharks and Blackhawks to OT and most certainly have a chance to pull off this upset.
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Randall the HandleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Patriots (7-2) at Panthers (6-3)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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If you don't already know it, the Carolina Panthers are for real. They play outstanding defence, they have some dynamic playmakers on offence and they are on a current five-game winning streak. This will be a good test for them we think they'll be ready. Yes, the Patriots have appeal as an underdog but, again, this line is undervalued based on pedigree and popularity. New England has struggled on the road this year, defeating Buffalo by two points, losing in Cincy while scoring just six points and dropping one to the Jets by allowing 30 points. If you think the extra week will help the Pats, think again as Bill Belichick's team has failed to cover the past four seasons after its rest. TAKING: PANTHERS -2.5

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CAROLINA (-3) 23 New England 19FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Panthers enter this game off of an impressive 10-9 win in San Francisco against the 49ers in as dominant a defensive performance against a good team that I have seen in a long time. Carolina completely shut down the 49ers passing game, holding Colin Kaepernick to 11 of 22 for 46 yards while sacking him six times and grabbing an interception. Overall they held the San Francisco offense to just 151 total yards at 2.9 yppl. I certainly did not see that coming but it appears that I underrated the Panthers as they are hitting their stride. I’ll lean slightly to Carolina here in the spotlight on Monday night at home against another formidable opponent in the New England Patriots. If this game were in New England or not in primetime I think that the Panthers could come out a bit flat after the huge win last week but I think that they will be motivated to play a big game in front of their home crowd. Although their adjusted yppl numbers are not in the upper tier based on my calculations, they are clearly an efficient team, particularly defensively where they have allowed an average of only 13 points to a schedule of teams that average 22. I believe that they have room for growth on offense and have a good matchup here running the ball against a New England team that has not been good defending the run with multiple key injuries in the front seven. On the other side, the Patriots are coming off of their bye and a 55-31 beat-down of the Steelers in New England where they appeared to be hitting their stride offensively. Adjusted season numbers show the Patriots to be just better than average both offensively and on defense, and have had to deal with lots of injuries this year. They have slowly been getting some of those pieces back and it looks like they will now have Gronkowski, Amendola and CB Talib back in the lineup. My model favors the Panthers in this game (-3.1) and they qualify in several good situations that are 78-32-4, 61-28-3 and 48-13-1. The problem here though is that I cannot play against the Patriots as they have some strong technical support on their side as well. HC Bill Belichick is 13-4 SU off a bye while coach of the Patriots and is 35-17-1 as a dog. The Patriots also seem to play better as the year goes on and are 89-27 SU after Week 9 under Coach Belichick. With the extra time to prepare, a return to health of some of their key players and the technical support listed above, I am just going to offer a weak lean on the Panthers minus the points.

DAVE COKIN

SO MISSISSIPPI VS NORTH DAKOTA STATE
PLAY: NORTH DAKOTA STATE

Southern Mississippi used to be a strong football school. Bowl games were the norm and the Golden Eagles were one of those teams the big boys tried to avoid. With the spectacular demise of that program, it’s now on the shoulders of the hoops squad to carry the banner, and the Golden Eagles are doing their fair share on that count.

Southern Miss is off a 27-win campaign in which they barely missed making the NCAA Tournament. With Memphis having departed the conference, the Golden Eagles are the early favorite to win the crown this season. They’re off to an encouraging start, coming off a nice road win at DePaul. But the task tonight looks a little tougher.

It’s the second stop on a three-game trip for Southern Miss, and they figure to have a difficult time at North Dakota State. This is a solid Bison entry that returns all five starters from last season’s 24-10 squad.

North Dakota State comes home off a loss at Saint Mary’s where they simply could not get any of their long range shots to drop, hitting only 1/13 from beyond the arc. The Bison also got dominated on the glass in that contest. On the plus side, ND State committed only five turnovers, and they should be expected to take good care of the rock tonight.

I watched the Southern Miss win at DePaul and was reasonably impressed. The Golden Eagles fell down early, but eventually started making some shots and ended up earning a nice road win. Donnie Tyndall is a proven winner from his days at Morehead State and I expect this team to be playing in March.

This is a fairly even matchup on paper. But I like the spot for the home team. It’s probably their biggest non-conference home game in terms of the opponent, and it’s a bit of a road sandwich for Southern Miss. I’m also a fan of backing experienced teams that value possessions early in the season, and the Bison certainly qualify on that count.

The number is a shade higher than where the game actually power rates, which I generally take as an indicator of how the guys who make the odds expect the game to play out. I agree with that assessment, and I’ll be laying the points with North Dakota State tonight.

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Carolina Panthers -3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Patriots are coming off of a bye and had a huge offensive game two weeks ago against Pittsburgh, but Carolina's defense is not the past their prime group that the Steelers are putting on the field this season. The Panthers defense is legit. Carolina is second in the NFL in yardage allowed, second in the NFL is points allowed, fourth in the NFL in yard per play allowed and fifth in the NFL in third down defense. Last week the Panthers totally dominated the 49ers in San Francisco holding them to just ten first downs for the whole game. Tom Brady with the exception of two weeks ago against Pittsburgh has not looked very good and I expect him to struggle against this Carolina defense. Offensively, Carolina is playing well with quarterback Cam Newton leading the way. The Panthers also have running back Jonathan Stewart back from injury to join DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert in the Panthers backfield. The Patriots have struggled against the run this season ranking 26th in the NFL in rushing defense and I expect New England to struggle stopping the run when you have the added threat of Cam Newton running the ball as well. This is a huge game for the Panthers as they continue their hunt for a playoff spot in the NFC. Lay the points.

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Mcneese State at Georgia StateFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick Georgia State -15FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Panthers begin their quest to play in Madison Square Garden on Monday night as they take on McNeese State in Tuscaloosa. The Cowboys are 1-2 on the season having been blown out by Michigan State and UL-Lafayette. They registered a nine point home win over Louisiana College on Friday. This is a team that has a strong lack of defense which could be an issue with Georgia State. The Panthers are 1-1 beating Southern Tech while losing at Vanderbilt by six. In each game they scored 80 points or more. RJ Hunter, Ryan Harrow and Devonta White account for 60 points per game and will be difficult for McNeese to handle. McNeese State doesn't play too many lined games but they have failed to cover in six of their last seven lined non-conference contests.