Craig Davis
Free play tonight is Philadelphia.
Yes, I realize Dallas is unbeaten at home, winning by an average of 11-12 points at American Airlines Arena. But I'm not worried about the Sixers winning the game... only covering the double digit number.
I'm not saying Dallas isn't capable of winning this game by double figures, but the Sixers are one of the few teams that can stay with Dallas, offensively, and get into a shootout till the bitter end.
Only three times this season have the Sixers lost by more than 12 points, and all three of those losses were against teams with much better defense than Dallas plays with.
The Mavs have a new team and a new attitude, even though it really goes against what Rick Carlisle is all about. He won the title with the Mavs in 2011 by stepping up the defensive efforts of Nowitzki, Kidd, and even Jason Terry.
But he's also a coach who knows how to adjust to the talent he's got on board.
Dallas will score a bunch, but the Sixers should keep pace and finish within 12 points of the Mavs tonight.
Take Philly as your free play of the day.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA
Scott Delaney
On the heels of my yesterday's freebie winner on the under in the Saints/49ers game, tonight's free winner is from pro hoops, and is on the Golden State Warriors, minus the points at the Utah Jazz.
If Golden State wants to be treated like a contender, it needs to start acting like one.
On the road.
The Warriors hit Salt Lake City tonight and should be in a good position to win and cover against a Utah team that is just 1-10 on the year, including Saturday's loss to Golden State, in Oakland.
The Warriors looked stellar in dominating from wire-to-wire at Oracle Arena, where it improved to 5-0. Golden State is averaging 110.8 points and shooting 52.5 percent while making half of its shots from beyond the arc at home.
Crazy as this is to say, something I didn't think I might not ever say - the Jazz are the worst team in the league. Utah has lost two straight since its only win and currently has the worst record in the league. The Jazz rank last in the NBA in scoring at 88.7 points per game and are the only team averaging more turnovers (18.7) than assists (17.6).
I fully expect to see the Warriors push the pace and force themselves into an uptempo game to take the Jazz out of their rhythm immediately.
The Warriors file into Salt Lake on ATS win streaks of 8-2 against Northwest teams, 10-3 on the highway and 18-7 overall. On the other hand, the Jazz are just 2-7 ATS after losing on the wood and 1-4 when hosting the Warriors.
Play Golden State in this one, as it rolls to the huge win.
4♦ GOLDEN STATE
Brad Wilton
Winning games has not been a problem for the Golden State Warriors who just swept their three game home stand straight up, but they did drop their last pair against the spread. Now they are hitting the road to face the 1-10 Utah Jazz, and I feel they are laying a few points too many.
The Jazz may have lost 102-88 on Saturday night in Oakland to the same Warriors team they are facing tonight, but they did cover getting +15 1/2 points. Utah has now covered 3 straight on the season, and they have also covered their last 3 in this series against the Warriors.
Golden State will do just enough to win this game, but will look for the Jazzmen to once again cover in the backend of this home-and-home affair.
1♦ UTAH
Brett Atkins
My free winner for tonight is in college basketball, where I like the SMU Mustangs to cover and potentially win outright at Arkansas, against the Razorbacks. Does anyone else realize that SMU now has two of the most successful college coaches in the two most popular intercollegiate athletics?
June Jones has been in place for years with the football program, and now Larry Brown is embarking on his second season in charge of the Mustangs. And now that Brown will be coaching his very first recruiting class, there's a certain buzz around campus, and there is even a bit of expectation for the program, in the inaugural American Athletic Conference season.
All five starters returned to the roster, there's a new stadium for the Mustangs and again, Brown is calling the shots.
I know this is SMU's first true road game of the season, but the Mustangs are 2-0 after a neutral-site win over TCU (69-61) to start the season. They come into this one after a home victory against Rhode Island (89-58) on Nov. 11.
And what you have to admire about Brown is he's getting everyone involved early on, getting them the experience they'll need. Nine Mustangs are averaging at least 6.0 points per game, while the team is averaging 79.0 points per game. And just Nic Moore is the only Mustang averaging douuble figures (16.5 ppg), so that tells me this is a well-rounded group playing as a team.
I like my chances against an unassuming Arkansas team that will be shocked to see how well the Mustangs play.
3♦ SMU
Sean Michaels
8-3 roll with comp plays after telling you to buy the half-point down on the Bears yesterday in Chicago's OT win against Baltimore. For Monday's play I'm heading to the NBA and backing Dallas (-12) at home against Philadelphia.
After falling to 1-4 on the road with Friday's 110-104 loss at Miami, I was impressed with how the Mavericks bounced back the following night with a 108-100 win at Orlando. Now they're back home, where they are a perfect 4-0.
In those four home wins, the Mavericks have downed the Hawks 118-109, beaten Memphis 111-99, stopped the Lakers 123-104 and topped Washington 105-95. Doing the math for you, that's an average of 114 points scored per game and an average winning margin of 10 points a game.
The Sixers arrive off crushing road losses at Atlanta (113-103) and New Orleans (135-98). They like to play up-tempo, but the result has been too many turnovers and too few defensive stops. Philadelphia has allowed 135, 113, 117, 109 and 127 points in its last five games. In fact, just ONCE this entire season the Sixers have held an opponent under 102 points.
Dallas has won seven in a row at home in the series. The Mavericks, like the 76ers, have five players averaging double-figures in scoring, but their experience, homecourt edge and backcourt duo of Monta Ellis and Jose Calderon prove to be the difference in a double-digit rout.
3♦ DALLAS
Charlie Scott
New England Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: New England Patriots +3
This is probably a square bet, but squares Win to ! Carolina off their biggest win of the Year at Niners and now get the Patriots on Monday Night. Carolina is a young Team and I don't know how they will handle success. In the past the Patriots as a dog under Belichick Cover is all that needs to be written. Big mismatch in Coaching and Pats have the QB edge and are dogs !
River City Sharps
Monmouth / Seton Hall Under 154
We like this game to go under the posted total. Both teams are coming off tough losses in their last game, highlighted by Seton Hall dropping a game at Mercer, where they committed 23 turnovers. SETON HALL is 16-3 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. The Sharps like that trend and think it holds serve tonight.
Andre Gomes
Oklahoma City Thunder -9
It's good that Oklahoma City faced a shorthanded Milwaukee team, as they would have lost the game against the Bucks at 100%. Oklahoma City showed a clear lack of energy and they were coming from tough road games at LA against the Clippers and at Golden State and so, they couldn't handle the spot very well. They struggled everywhere offensively with just 17 assists: they were poor down low and both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook couldn't even get 10 FT attempts, something that shows their clear lack of aggression during the game. Thanks to that, Milwaukee was able to keep fighting for the win, even though they had pretty much no inside game with Zaza Pachulia shooting 3-13 FG! Milwaukee managed to get some offensive production from transitions with 16 fast break points and some outside shooting via O.J. Mayo. Oklahoma City's tired starters were clearly saved by their bench, with their main five bench players (Collison, Lamb, Adams, Jackson and Fisher) having net positives of +16, +10, +10, +11 and +5, while the best of the starting five was Westbrook with a +8!
Denver is coming from a clear loss at Houston, where their defense was horrible. Of course starting a frontcourt formed by J.J. Hickson and Kenneth Faried is a bad idea for any team that wants to have a good defensive performance, as they both struggle on protecting the basket and on their defensive positioning. However, Denver's guards weren't much better on defense. Houston's backcourt did whatever they wanted on offense, with easy pick and rolls and a kick out game that worked perfectly with Houston shooting 9-21 3pts, but also 23-30 (77%) FG near the basket! Of course Denver's offense also created some good production, as Houston's perimeter defense is very soft and so, Denver's most aggressive players had success against them: Ty Lawson with 11-19 FG and Wilson Chandler with 5-10 FG, but that wasn't enough especially because Dwight Howard had a good day at the free throw line with 17-24 FT!
I believe Oklahoma City's effort tonight will be much better. They are coming back home and they will be facing a divisional rival, so I expect them to be fired up for tonight. With Denver struggling to stop the opposing guards to have big games against them, I believe that the Nuggets will heavily struggle against Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, especially because Denver's Head Coach Brian Shaw will start once again Hickson and Faried in the frontcourt and they won't protect the basket at all. Also Serge Ibaka has been playing on a beast mode and he will have the edge over Faried, who is far from his best right now. Denver's offense is still quite inconsistent, as Brian Shaw is yet to find the right rotations on the team, so with their bad shooting, I expect Oklahoma City to pack the paint and defend them well. Therefore, I believe Oklahoma City will pick up an easy win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
OC Dooley
Vermont +13
One can argue the line for this particular clash is not high enough considering that Vermont is coming off a horrible loss versus an opponent (Bryant College) who is virtually unknown. Vermont also due to a myriad of injuries has only NINE healthy players for tonight’s contest. It is one thing to have a reduced roster, but it is even worse when that contingent is in the middle of a seven-game marathon on the road. Host Providence is not only from a power-conference, they enter the game undefeated (3-0) where for the most part they have dominated. But my research indicates that dating all the way back to the 1997 season after leading the previous game by at least 15 points at halftime, Providence has struggled (11-29 ATS) to cash betting tickets. Tonight marks only the fifth time that Vermont has had a chance to face Providence and they are 0-4 so far. The most recent meeting in this series was in 2009 when Providence humiliated Vermont by a 106-64 final count. However the prior 3 clashes were relatively competitive and I am looking for more of the same this evening. In the past three years if their prior game was played on the road, Vermont is UNDEFEATED where it counts (7-0 ATS) which makes this an excellent percentage underdog wager.