Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, November 21

Scott Spreitzer

Detroit U at George Washington
Prediction: Detroit U

I went against George Washington when they faced California and we cashed with the Bears, a 27-point win as a favorite of roughly 12 points. George Washington has a new coach (Mike Lonergan) and no inside presence. They finished last season with more turnovers than assists and began this season with a minus-4 turnover ratio in their win over Maryland-Eastern Shore. Even more alarming was the fact they were outrebounded 41-36 and allowed 15 offensive boards in the win. GWU finished 266th in the NCAA in scoring last season and ranked 278th in FG percentage. They were a poor FT shooting team, also. The Colonials hit just 38% of their shots in each of their first two games of this season and have made just 14 of 26 at the charity stripe. Poor shooting in all categories; poor rebounding; weak assist-turnover ratio. That's how we describe the Colonials heading into this season. GWU has been one of the worst non-conference squads ATS in recent years. They're 13-36-3 ATS in their last 51 outside of the A-10, and 2-10 in their last 12. I expect another SU/ATS loss in tonight's tilt with Detroit. I'm recommending a play on the Titans on Monday night.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars

We never really bought into Edmonton's hot start, so we weren't surprised to see them lose four straight before a huge 9-2 win over Chicago on Saturday. Look for them to come "back down to Earth" tonight in Dallas against a desperate Stars team that has lost five in a row itself. That's because the Oilers are a hideous 1-13 following a game where at least 8 goals were scored. They are also 10-35-1 here in Dallas. The Stars are 21-9 off a division loss and put them off a loss by 2 goals or more to a division rival, and they're 12-4.

Play on: Dallas

David Chan

Carolina Hurricanes @ Philadelphia Flyers
PICK: Philadelphia Flyers

The 7-11-3 Carolina Hurricanes blow into Philadelphia to take on the 11-5-3 Flyers.

Cam Ward gets the call in net for the 'Canes in the second game of the back to back for Carolina; he'll be opposed by Ilya Bryzgalov.

Philadelphia has dominated this series at home, winning six straight.

Claude Giroux had three assists in Saturday's 6-4 setback to the Jets:

“Our team’s played some pretty good hockey,” said coach Peter Laviolette. “As much as you’d like to win every game for the rest of the year, it’s probably unrealistic, you’re going to have speed bumps on the road. I think we’ll get back on track tomorrow when we get in front of our fans and get back on the ice.”

Keep your eyes on Giroux who had two goals and one helper in last Monday's 5-3 beatdown of the Hurricanes.

The venerable Jaromir Jagr was also impressive, with two goals and two assists in this series since his return to the NHL.

Carolina held on for a hard-fought 3-2 win over Toronto last night, and suffice to say, I fully expect a "letdown" in this contest (note that the Hurricanes are 1-3-0 playing the second half of back-to-back games; note as well that the Hurricanes are 0-5-1 on the road since mid October).

I've always been a fan of the phrase: "sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason"; that phrase could not be more apt in this situation; consider laying the price!

Jim Feist

California vs Georgia
Pick: Georgia

CBE Championship Semifinals, from Kansas City, MO. The nightcap of this tourney for today features Cal against Georgia. Both clubs have started the season 3-0 S/U. The Bears return four starters for HC Mike Montgomery to a team that went a mediocre 18-15 last season. Senior guard Jorge Gutierrez is the top returning scorer, having averaged 14.6 ppg last season. The Bears will rely on Gutierrez along with returners Harper Kamp and Allen Crabbe to produce most of their points. The team did not bring in any good freshmen to compliment the club this year. That's not the case with Georgia, who added Kent Caldwell-Pope to the team this year, a 6-foot-4 freshman that should help the team forget the losses of Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslie. With just two returning starters to the Bulldogs, the freshman will be asked to contribute right away for HC Mark Fox. Both of these clubs have held their opponents to under 40% shooting this season and that leads me to believe we are looking at a lower scoring game. I'm going to take the points here with Goergia, which is allowing just over 54 ppg. That makes the 5 1/2 points look pretty good with the Dogs here on Monday.

SPORTS WAGERS

NEW ENGLAND –16 over Kansas City

Considering we could’ve bet this one at –14 earlier in the week, paying two points extra on Monday is not a good business decision and therefore we’ll pass. The Chiefs will start Tyler Palko at quarterback in place of the injured Matt Cassell. Palko has thrown 13 passes for zero touchdowns in his NFL career. Tom Brady has thrown 5070 passes and 284 touchdowns. Kansas City is among the worst teams in the NFL. The Patriots rank among the best and won’t be afraid to show it. All things being equal, you don’t need us to suggest that the Pats should be able to name the score here and bludgeon this opponent but the premium is too high to pull the trigger. Play: New England –16 (No bets).

Phoenix +127 over WASHINGTON

After losing two in a row of a three-game trip and being outscored 7-2, one had to figure Washington would show up for its final game of said trip in Toronto on Saturday night against the reeling Leafs. Instead the Caps were buried 7-1 to cap a 0-3 road trip, while being outscored 14-3. Washington scored one goal in each of the three games. The Caps have one win in its last seven games, a 3-1 victory over the Devils in a game they were outshot 33-20. Alexander Semin might be a healthy scratch tonight because he’s simply not interested. Alexander Ovechkin is not interested either these days. The Caps defense is awful, the team isn’t scoring and overall, this is a Capitals squad that’s just not very good anymore, nor are they playing with any urgency, passion or desire. Phoenix is 3-1, as it wraps up a season long five-game road trip. The Coyotes hold down the fifth spot in the Western Conference, powered by a 7-2-1 mark in their last 10 games. Mike Smith (9-3-3) has allowed 2.15 goals per-game and has a save percentage of .936. Smith has been outstanding on the trip, making 31, 35, 40 and 43 saves, respectively, in the four games while allowing six goals. Unlike the Caps, the Coyotes play hard and they play to win and a victory here would give them eight out of a possible 10 points on trip. Washington might be the most beatable team in the NHL right now. Play: Phoenix +127 (Risking 2 units).

Memphis –6 over Michigan

3:00 PM EST. The Wolverines have played three games heading into the Maui tournament but all three were against cupcakes, leaving them untested and frankly, they weren’t very impressive either. Michigan opened the year with a win over Ferris State, the equivalent of a high school team. They subsequently beat lowly Towson and the Western Illinois Leathernecks. The Wolverines scored 59, 64 and 59 points respectively against that trio of dregs. UM is ranked #17 in the nation and that gives them credibility but they have a ton to prove to warrant that ranking. The Memphis Tigers rank #10 and have played one game thus far against Belmont. Belmont lost by a single point to Duke and they would destroy any of those three teams the Wolverines played. Memphis beat Belmont by 16 points and scored 97 points in the process. Offensively, the Tigers are loaded. They have shooters and more shooters and they can bury an opponent early. They return five standout sophomores and they’re in a position to make a deep run this season. There will be an adjustment in the lines soon, as the books learn who the imposters are, but for this game, we get a very cheap lay on the far superior club. Note the early start time. Play: Memphis –6 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

EZWINNERS

New England Patriots -16.5

Laying this amount of points in the NFL on a consistent basis will break your bankroll, but it looks like the only way to go in this game. Kansas City quarterback Matt Cassel is out due to a hand injury which will limit the already offensively challenged Chiefs even more. The Patriots defense is improving every week and had a nice showing against the Jets last week and I look for another strong effort in this game against Kansas City. The New England offense got things going again against the Jets and the Patriots offense should have a field day against a Kansas City defense that has a league low in sacks. Giving Tom Brady all day to throw is never a good thing. Lay the points.

DEREK MANCINI

For tonight's Freebie I'm siding with Vanderbilt as they battle it out with Oregon State in the Legends Classic Championship Game. A couple things caught my attention in this contest, but none bigger than the public overreacting to the Beavers win over a clearly rebuilding Texas team. Sure, it was considered an upset, but upsetting an overrated team doesn't qualify as anything special in my book. Look for the Beavers to get exposed for the first time this season against a rock-solid Vandy squad tonight.

So what's the big difference between these two teams? Defense that's what! I know the Commodores haven't looked particularly great on the defensive end, especially in that loss to Cleveland State, but they're still leaps and bounds better than Oregon State. A couple numbers really stand out, like the Beavers allowing 41% from long range, and the fact they allowed a young team like Texas to shoot 55% Saturday. Red flags if you ask me.

Finally, consider the line, which is fishy to say the least. I mean after watching Oregon State beat Texas as a 5' point dog, all of a sudden you're getting 8' in this match up. To the novice better it might seem like the oddsmakers made a mistake, but I know better. Guys, mistakes in marquee games like this are few and far between. They're clearly trying to entice action on Oregon State, luring bettors seeking a live dog on Monday's card. Well look elsewhere my friends, because Vandy has the guard play to torch this new look man-to-man coach Robinson installed. Lay it with Vanderbilt over Oregon State Monday.

3♦ VANDERBILT

JEFF BENTON

Your Monday freebie is the Kansas City-New England game to make its way over the posted total at Gillette Stadium tonight.

Kansas City comes into this game quite injured, and will turn to Tyler Palko to guide the sputtering offense that has put up just 13-total points in their last pair of games - both losses. The Chiefs have stayed under the total in their last four games, but with Palko making his first career start, there could be a few turnovers in this game that set up a few easy touchdowns. If that is the case, then this total will be eclipsed midway through the fourth quarter.

The last two Monday night games have both played over the total, and this one will as well. New England went over the total last Sunday night against the Jets, and eight of the Patriots last ten home games have also sailed over the posted price.

17 of New England's last 22 games played against AFC opponents have also made their way over the posted price, so look for the Chiefs and Patriots to make it three straight Monday nighters over the total.

2♦ OVER

Tradeline Sports

Georgetown / Kansas Under 139.5

Playing to the low side of the over-under in a neutral court setting on a team (Hoyas) that had winning record last year while outscoring their opponents by an average of 4-points or more per game on the season coming off two straight wins by 10 points or more when the total rests between 130 and 139.5 points has cashed a solid 56-23 (71%) clip over the last 15 college campaigns and the trend is a red hot 5-1 this year.

California / Georgia Under 132

Playing to the low side of the over-under in a neutral court setting with one team (Bears) coming a winning season a year ago and off two straight home wins by 10 point or more when the oddsmakers open the total between 130 and 139.5 points has cashed at a 40-13 (76%) clip over the last 15 college campaigns .The trend is 3-1 this season.

Steve Janus

Vanderbilt -7

The Commodores are showing some solid value over Oregon State in the Ticket City Legends Classic on Monday. Vanderbilt has put together a couple of solid wins after their upset loss against Cleveland State, and will be looking to make a statement with a big win over undefeated Oregon State. The Beavers just upset Texas 100-95 on Saturday. While that was an impressive performance, I think that game really took a lot out of Oregon State emotionally and physically. Look for the Commodores to jump out to an early lead and run away with this thing late. Vanderbilt is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.

Jack Jones

California Bears -6

California is definitely a team that's under the radar early in the season. The 23rd-ranked Golden Bears will try to improve to 4-0 for the first time in three years when they take on undefeated Georgia in the CBE Classic semifinals Monday night in Kansas City, Mo.

The Bears have four starters back from last season, and seven of their top eight scorers returning. Cal stayed perfect with a 72-55 win over Austin Peay last Tuesday. The Golden Bears have won their first three games by an average of 21.7 points while holding opponents below 40 percent shooting in each contest. They have been winning by these big margins despite resting their starters in the second half.

Georgia is off to a 3-0 start as well, but they've looked much less impressive than Cal while playing some very weak competition. The Bulldogs lost their top two scorers from last season's NCAA Tournament team, which will certainly be tough to overcome. Georgia has played their first three games at home against the likes of Wofford, Bowling Green and South Dakota State, and they only outscored those three by an average of 11.0 points/game.

Cal is scoring 76.7 points/game while shooting 51.2 percent from the floor and 40.5 percent from 3-point range. Georgia has only been able to muster up 65.7 points/game, 40.4 percent shooting, and 23.9 percent from 3-point range. The Bears are outrebounding their foes 40-27 on average, while the Bulldogs are getting outrebounded 36-40.

This play falls into a system that is 27-8 (77.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (CALIFORNIA) - after 1 or more consecutive unders, a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG).

Cal is 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds. Georgia is 2-11 ATS in their last 11 games after a win by 10 points or more. The Bulldogs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. Bet California Monday.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Memphis -6 over Michigan: The Wolverines lost just one starter from last year, but he was a big loss as PG Darius Morris was their top scorer from a year ago and the catalyst of this Michigan offense. The Wolverines have showed in the early going that they lack a real offensive punch as they have put up just 60.7 pg very some very weak competition and to take it further they have been able to score just 59 points in the two games they had where no line was posted. Hard to get a read on Memphis just yet, but they did have an easy win vs a Belmont squad that lost by just 1 vs Duke. The Tigers are a very athletic team that deserves their top ten ranking an they are also very deep and they have some of the key pieces back from a team that led the nation in bench scoring last year (40.2 ppg). plus a solid crop of newcomers. Until the Wolverines can find some offense it will be hard for them to stay with these teams that have a lot of firepower. Memphis is just to athletic for Michigan here and they win by 12+

Virgina/ Drake under 118: I should have played this when the total first came out (121), but I still like it at this number. The Cavs have played very good defense this year as they are 2nd in the nation in points allowed (44.5 ppg) and they have allowed teams to hit just 33.2% of their shots, including just 26.5% vs a decent Drexel offense last time out. On offense the Cavs have struggled to put up points as they have averaged just 62 ppg thus far and have shot just 43.2% from the floor. The Cavs are not a running team and like to control the pace as evidenced by the 106.5 ppg their games have averaged so far. The Bulldogs don't run either, but they have a bit more offensive puch thabn the Cavs, but I expect Virginia's defense to temper that attack a bit. Drake though can also play good defense as they have limited their opponents to just 36.4% shooting and 62 ppg thus far. Neither team will look to push the ball in this and I expect this game to struggle to hit 110 points. KEY TRENDS--- The OU is 1-7 in Drake's last 8 as a neutral floor dog, while the OU is 3-9 in the Cavs last 12 as a favorite.

NHL Predictions

Edmonton Oilers +128

The Oilers are coming off of a big 9-2 win on Saturday night at home against the Chicago Blackhawks. This big win came after 4 straight losses, and the Oilers are now 10-7-2. The Oilers have been streaky lately, winning 6 straight before dropping 5 of 6, but now may have their confidence back after Saturday’s huge offensive explosion. The Dallas Stars have dropped 5 straight games coming into tonight, with losses at home against San Jose and Florida and road losses vs Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Colorado. The Stars aren’t losing close games either – they are scoring just 0.80 goals per game over that 5 game span (being shutout twice) and allowing 4.20 against over that same span. The Stars are 11-8 on the season overall. In net will be a showdown between two of the Western Conferences best goaltenders so far this season. Edmonton’s Nikolai Khabibulin is 8-3-2 on the year with a low 1.76 GAA and .938 SV%. Kari Lehtonen is 11-4 with a 2.44 GAA and .928 SV% for the Stars. Dallas had been outplayed in a lot of their 11 wins, and it seems like things are starting to bounce the other way for the Stars in the current 5 game winning streak. The Stars are getting a little too much credit here and the Oilers are undervalued. I’ll take the Oilers as medium sized underdogs.

Rob Vinciletti

Notre Dame vs. Missouri

Notre Dame has started out hot winning the first 4 they have played. Tonight is their first real test vs a 3-0 Missouri team. Notre Fame has won 18 of 19 in November games and 16 of 20 vs teams who are averaging 64 or less points per game. When they have played the Big 12 they have won and covered 3 of the 4 times. They have also won 24 of 31 times after scoring 80 or more points. Not bad for a dog. Missouri has not played well in game vs the Big East conference. The Tigers are 2-7 straight up and ats including 0-3 of late. Look for Notre Dame at the very least to cover the number.