SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL
Atlanta (4-2 SU and ATS) at New Orleans (6-0 SU and ATS)
The Saints shoot for their seventh straight victory to open the season when they welcome the Falcons into the Superdome for a prime-time battle between NFC South rivals.
New Orleans brings the league’s top-ranked offense into this game, putting up 427.3 yards per game and a whopping 39.7 points per contest. QB Drew Brees is completing 67 percent of his passes for has 1,698 passing yards with 14 TDs and just five INTs. Last week in Miami, Brees had three-first-half turnovers as the Saints fell behind 24-3 at halftime before rallying for a 46-34 victory over the Dolphins, covering as six-point favorites as to remain perfect against the number this season.
Atlanta went to Dallas last weekend and fell 37-21 as a 5½-point underdog, snapping a two-game SU and ATS winning streak. The Falcons’ running game has been slowed with RB Michael Turner averaging just 3.4 yards per carry, more than a yard less than last season when he ranked second in the NFL with 1,699 rushing yards. The Falcons are surrendering just 19 ppg, which ranks 11th in the league, but they’re 25th in total defense, giving up 368.3 total yards per game, and 26th in pass defense (250.7 ypg).
These teams split last year’s two contests with the home team winning and covering in each. The Saints scored a 29-25 home win in December as a three-point favorites after Atlanta won 34-20 at home as a one-point chalk. New Orleans is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 4-1 in the last five played in the Superdome.
The Falcons are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 divisional games, but otherwise are on pointspread surges of 8-1 after a straight-up loss, 4-1 in November, 8-2 after a non-cover and 8-3 over the last 11 years in Week 8 contests. The Saints are just 2-7 ATS in the last nine years in Week 8 games, but they are currently riding ATS waves of, 18-7-1 overall, 7-1 at home, 18-5 as a favorite, 6-0 as a home chalk and 7-1-1 against the NFC.
The total has alternated in all six of Atlanta’s games this year, with last week’s game at Dallas soaring way over the number. The Falcons have stayed below the posted total in 38 of 56 road games and 18 of 25 November contests, but otherwise the “over” is on streaks of 5-1 against the NFC, 8-3 in Week 8, 10-4 after a non-cover and 10-3 after a straight-up loss.
New Orleans is on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 19-7-1 overall (4-2 this year), 15-5-1 at home (2-1 this year), 34-16-1 against NFC teams, 6-2 in divisional games and 16-6-1 as a favorite. Also, the over has been the play in each of the last three meetings between these squads.
Finally, the “over” is 18-5-1 in Monday Night Football games dating back to last season (7-1 this year).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
WORLD SERIES
N.Y. Yankees (10-3) at Philadelphia (8-5)
The Yankees try to wrap up their record 27th world title when they send A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.04 ERA) to the mound at Citizens Bank Park for Game 5 of the World Series against the Phillies and red-hot Cliff Lee (14-13, 3.22).
With two outs and nobody on base in the top of the ninth inning, the Yankees got to Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge for three runs to break a 4-4 tie, and closer Mariano Rivera pitched a perfect bottom of the ninth inning to save a 7-4 victory in Game 4 on Sunday. Since suffering a 6-1 loss to Lee and the Phillies in Game 1 at home, New York has posted three straight multi-run victories, winning by the combined score of 18-10.
New York, looking for its 27th championship overall and first since 2000, have won three straight World Series games following a four-game losing streak on baseball’s marquee stage. The Yankees enter Game 5 on positive runs of 51-20 overall, 8-1 against the N.L. East and 7-0 in interleague road games. The only negatives for Joe Girardi’s team: a 4-8 mark in its last 12 playoff road games and 3-6 in its last nine World Series roadies.
The Yankees are 13-1 all-time when taking a 3-1 lead in the World Series. The last time a team overcame a 3-1 World Series deficit was the Royals in 1985, but New York has lost three straight games just twice since the All-Star break.
Despite dropping the last three games in this series, Philadelphia is still 19-8 in the playoffs since the beginning of last year’s run to the World Series title, including winning 11 of 14 playoff games at Citizens Bank Park. Additionally, the Phillies are on positive runs of 36-17 overall at home, 21-7 on Monday and 4-1 in the fifth game of a season. On the downside, Charlie Manuel’s squad has lost 12 of 16 interleague games (all versus the A.L. East) and 17 of 22 interleague contests at home, including the last eight in a row.
New York has now taken four of seven against Philadelphia this year, including a three-game interleague series in the Bronx in May. Going back to 1999, the Yankees are 11-6 against the Phillies. The visitor has won nine of the last 12 head-to-head matchups, with the Yankees going 6-1 in their last seven at Citizens Bank Park.
Burnett, who is pitching on three days’ rest tonight, dominated Philadelphia in Game 2 on Tuesday, squandering a run on four hits while striking out nine over seven innings en route to a 3-1 victory, the first postseason win of his career. Including three starts in the first two rounds, Burnett has given up 10 runs (all earned) in 25 1/3 innings (3.55 ERA). However, three of those starts came at home (1.86 ERA). In his one postseason road outing, Burnett got rocked for six runs on eight hits in six innings at the Angels, with the Yankees losing 7-6.
Take away the loss at the Angels, and New York has won six straight games behind Burnett, and the right-hander has yielded two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight outings. He’s 8-6 with a 4.83 ERA in 18 road starts this year, with the Yankees splitting those 18 games, compared with 6-3 with a 3.26 ERA in 19 home starts (with New York going 15-4). Including the Game 2 victory, Burnett is now 6-8 with a 4.51 in 17 career games (16 starts) against the Phillies.
Lee twirled a complete-game masterpiece at Yankee Stadium in Game 1, outdueling CC Sabathia in leading Philadelphia to a 6-1 victory. The lone run the lefty gave up was unearned and came in the bottom of the ninth inning. He scattered six hits, didn’t walk anyone and struck out 10. Lee is 3-0 with a 0.54 ERA in four playoff starts (two earned runs allowed in 33 1/3 innings) with three walks allowed against 30 strikeouts. In his two postseason starts at Citizens Bank Park, Lee has surrendered one run in 17 innings.
Since being traded to the Phillies at the end of July, Lee has gone 10-4 with a 2.55 ERA in 16 starts, including 5-2 with a 3.13 ERA in nine outings at Citizens Bank (with Philadelphia going 7-2). Against the Yankees in his career, Lee is 5-4 with a 4.28 ERA in 10 starts, including 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA in three games this season.
The first five meetings between these teams this season had stayed under the total but Games 3 and 4 in Philly soared over the posted price.
The Yankees are 4-0-1 “over” in their last five road games, but otherwise they’re on “under” rolls of 7-4-1 overall, 17-8 in interleague play, 16-8 versus the A.L. East and 16-6 in the World Series and 16-6-2 after a victory. Also, the under is 22-13-2 in Burnett’s starts this year, including 6-2 in the last eight. Meanwhile, Philadelphia still carries “over” trends of 20-6-2 overall, 8-2-1 in these playoffs, 5-0-1 at home, 10-1-1 after a defeat and 4-1-1 against the A.L. East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
NBA
Houston (2-1 SU and ATS) at Utah (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Rockets will try to make it three in a row when they travel to EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City for a matchup with the Jazz.
Houston lost its opener in Portland on Tuesday, then went to Oakland and beat Golden
State on Wednesday 108-107 as a five-point underdog followed by Saturday’s 111-107 home win over the Blazers as a 2½-point ‘dog. On Saturday, newly acquired Trevor Ariza had 33 points to lead the way, with PG Aaron Brooks adding 28 points and eight assists.
Utah dropped its opener on Wednesday in Denver, 115-104 as a five-point underdog, then scored a 111-98 win over the Clippers on Friday as a nine-point favorite in its home-opener. The Jazz’s one-two punch of Deron Williams (21 points and nine assists) and Carlos Boozer (20 points and 12 rebounds) did the damage against Los Angeles.
The home team has won seven straight in this series (4-3 ATS), dating back to their 2008 playoff series. In last year’s four meetings, Houston won both games at home but split them at the betting window, while Utah did the same.
The Rockets went 4-0 ATS in their last four Monday games last season, but otherwise they are on negative ATS streaks of 1-4 on the road, 2-5 after a straight-up win and 12-27-1 after a spread-cover. Utah is on negative pointspread slides of 6-13 overall, 4-9 at home, 0-6 after a straight-up win, 1-5 after two days off and 3-8 as a home chalk, but the Jazz are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 Monday games and 25-12 in their last 37 against Southwest Division squads.
Houston is on a plethora of “under” streaks dating to last season, including 10-4 overall (but 1-2 this year), 10-4 against the Western Conference, 4-0 on Mondays, 5-2 as a road ‘dog and 7-1 when getting one day off. Utah has topped the total in 12 of 17 overall (2-0 this year), 13 of 19 against the Southwest Division and five of six after a straight-up win, but it is on “under” stretches of 13-3 at home and 11-5 as a favorite. Finally, the under has been the play in 13 of the last 19 series meetings in Salt Lake City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
ALEX SMART
New Jersey Nets @ Charlotte Bobcats
PICK: Charlotte Bobcats -7
On Monday night, the Charlotte Bobcats will search for their second win of the season when the winless New Jersey Nets come to town. The oddsmakers have lined the Bobcats as sizeable favorites, but there are plenty of reasons to believe that they are the side to tackle in this one.
The Nets come into this game without one of their stars, G Devin Harris. Harris suffered a groin injury and will be out for at least the next week. The former Dallas Maverick was really the pride and joy of this team when he was in the lineup, as he was second on the team in points (15.0 per game), led the team in assists (7.5 per game), and was third in rebounds (5.5 per game). Without Harris in the lineup in its last game, New Jersey was destroyed by Washington 123-104. Don't let the 104 points scare you. The Nets only put up that many points because of the fact that they were opposing the Wizards' fast-paced offense. If not for the fact that they shot 56% from beyond the arc, they wouldn't have come anywhere near the 100-point barrier.
The Bobcats have taken a ton of strides from their embarrassing 92-59 loss in Boston. Their offense has struggled mightily, but the defense has been awesome. If you throw out the two overtimes that Charlotte played against New York three days ago, it is holding opponents to just 88.0 points per game this year, which is an impressive feat considering that the Celtics and Cavs have both appeared on the slate. Unfortunately, HC Larry Brown's squad ranks dead last in the NBA in both points per game (80.0) and field goal % (37.2%). Things should change tonight, as this New Jersey defense isn't anywhere near as strong as the ones that the Bobcats have faced this year.
Charlotte is already 2-1 ATS this season, and it is one of the hottest ATS teams in the NBA dating back to last year. The Bobcats are 16-6 ATS in their L/22 games at home and 7-3 ATS in their L/10 games against the Atlantic Division. These two teams split the NBA betting proceedings both SU and ATS last year, as the Bobcats won 95-87 in December and lost 91-87 in April. Look for the first meeting between these teams in '09 to go to the hosts. Book it!!!
RANDALL THE HANDLE
Falcons @ Saints
Play: Atlanta +10
Divisional games have dominated the Monday Night sched this season. Network folk rely on them to be close and after defeating Saints and losing by just four in split last season, the Falcons are more than capable of meeting that requirement. TAKING: Atlanta +10
JIM FEIST
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
TAKE: MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Has any team played as many games as the Clippers have? The Clippers come into today's game with FOUR games already under their belt and will be playing their third game in the last four nights. The Clippers are still looking for that first win after dropping their first four S/U and splitting ATS. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have played just two games and are 1-1 both SU and ATS. After a opening night win over the Nets, the Wolves lost at home to Cleveland 104-87. The Clippers have lots of talent with Davis and Camby plus their top draft pick of Blake Griffin who has yet to play with an injury. The Wolves have covered five of the last six games in this matchup including both games last year. Should be a low scoring affair with two slow teams and how the Clippers can cover eight points or better will not be easy. We'll take the points here with the Wolves who should slow this pace to a crawl.
DUNKEL INDEX
Atlanta at New Orleans
The Saints look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games as a home favorite. New Orleans is the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Saints favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-10)
Game 233-234: Atlanta at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 137.790; New Orleans 148.878
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 11; 51
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 10; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-10); Under
MLB
NY Yankees at Philadelphia
The Phillies try to stay alive after last night's 7-4 loss and build on their 7-0 record in Cliff Lee's last 7 starts after their opponent scores 5 or more runs in the previous game. Philadelphia is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Phillies favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-140)
Game 959-960: NY Yankees at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.355; Philadelphia (Lee) 17.086
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-140); Under
NBA
New Jersey at Charlotte
The Bobcats look to build on their 6-2 ATS record in their last 8 games as a favorite between 5 and 10 1/2 points. Charlotte is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Bobcats favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-7)
Game 501-502: New Jersey at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 111.154; Charlotte 119.907
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 9; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 7; 177
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-7); Over
Game 503-504: New Orleans at New York
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 111.009; New York 116.297
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 5 1/2; 203 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 505-506: Houston at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 117.198; Utah 122.562
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 5 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 8 1/2; 206
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+8 1/2); Under
Game 507-508: Memphis at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 110.501; Sacramento 113.006
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 2 1/2; 207 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 1; 202
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-1); Over
Game 509-510: Minnesota at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 110.521; LA Clippers 112.643
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 2; 190 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 8 1/2; 193
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+8 1/2); Under
NHL
Edmonton at NY Islanders
The Islanders look to take advantage of an Edmonton team that is 2-6 in the last 8 meetings. New York is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Islanders favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (-120)
Game 1-2: Tampa Bay at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.438; Philadelphia 12.543
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-170); 6
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-170); Over
Game 3-4: Edmonton at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.913; NY Islanders 12.338
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (-120); Under
Game 3-4: Los Angeles at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 12.030; Phoenix 11.711
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+125); Under
EZWINNERS
Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings -1.5
The Kings are off to an 0-3 start, but those games were on the road against an improved Oklahoma City team, New Orleans and San Antonio. This is Sacramento's home opener and they are playing a team that is more at their level. The Grizzlies gave an all out effort last night in Denver and still came up short. Memphis rarely puts together strong back to back games and the tired legs might catch up with them tonight. Play on Sacramento.
JR TIPS
Grizzlies at Kings
The Memphis Grizzlies 10-time All Star Allen Iverson is set to make his debut with his new team tonight against the winless Sacramento Kings. Iverson says this year is personal for him as people are saying he lost a step because of the injuries and bad season he had last year. He averaged 17.4 points in 54 games with the Pistons, before the team announced in early April that he was being shut him down with back problems. Iverson is expected to be part of a three-guard rotation with O.J. Mayo and Mike Conley and the Grizzlies are hoping he can provide a veteran presence on a team that is coming off three consecutive seasons with fewer than 25 wins. Memphis is looking to bounce back following a 133-123 loss to the Nuggets last night coming off a win against Toronto. The Grizzlies shot 70 percent with a 40 point first quarter, but fell behind 67-66 by halftime and couldn't regain control against an explosive Nuggest team although OJ Mayo scored a career-high 40 points after finishing with a combined 27 in Memphis' first two games. The Kings, meanwhile, return home after going winless on a three-game trip to start the season. Sacramento lost 113-94 to San Antonio on Sunday, falling behind by 16 points at the half and 21 early in the third quarter. Kevin Martin scored 29 points while Spencer Hawes added 22 and 10 rebounds off the bench as they were the only Kings to finish in double figures and allowing the Spurs to shot 58.1 percent. Sacramento and Memphis split four meetings last season, with each winning once on the road and Iverson has averaged 26.5 points in two games against the Kings in 2008-09.With Allen Iverson coming back, Memphis will have even more fire power as this is a team with a lot of young talent and they know in order to compete in the Western Conference, they are going to have the beat the teams they should beat. Sacramento is one of those teams they can beat while they are coming off a 3 game road trip and the 1st game at home is always the toughest.
TAKE MEMPHIS +1.5
BIG AL
New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies
Cliff Lee may be the best starter in the 2009 postseason, but AJ Burnett certainly has not disgraced himself. In fact Burnett seems to be getting stronger and stronger with each start, his last one in game two of this series being his best of the post-sesaon so far, as the veteran righthander limited the Phillies to just one earned run on four hits with two walks and nine strikeouts in seven strong innings. In fact if you take out his start against the Angels in Anaheim in game five of the ALCS, then Burnett's ERA for the post-season is a very competitive 2.13. You don't have to take out any of Cliff Lee's four starts in the post-season to be impressed by his numbers thus far. His 3-0 record (in four starts), 0.54 ERA and 30 strikeouts to go with three walks in just over 33 innings is off the charts. Unlike their games in Yankee Stadium earlier in the series, both Lee and Burnett will have only eight quality bats to face in the lineup tonight instead of nine as the games in the Citizens Bank Park do not use the designated hitter. Good luck - Al McMordie
Play on: Under
Tom Freese
Houston Rockets at Utah Jazz
Prediction: Utah Jazz
Utah is 25-12 ATS their last 37 games vs. Southwest Division teams and they are 20-7 ATS on Monday. The Jazz are 8-3 ATS their last 11 games as favorites of 5.0 to 10.5 and they are 4-0 ATS when their opponent scored 100 or more points in their last game. Houston is 12-27-1 ATS off an ATS win and they are 2-5 ATS off a straight up win. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games as road games and they are 1-4 ATS vs. a team that has a home win percentage over 60%. PLAY ON UTAH -
Rob Vinciletti
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings -1
The Kings are 23-2 at home vs the Grizzlies. Ironically they lost the last home game they played against them last year. Tonight the Kings catch Memphis in a tough spot. Memphis comes in unrested for this one off a tough game in the the thin air of Denver. When Memphis plays on the road with no rest and scored 90 or more they are 0-11. The Kings are solid at home when the line maker puts the total in this range. They are 13-2 ats at home from 200 to 205. Take the Kings to crown the Grizzlies tonight.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Minnesota T'Wolves at Los Angeles Clippers
Minnesota played a high scoring game last night in Phoenix, but should find themselves in a lower scoring game tonight against a Clippers team that has gone Under in three of four this year. Remember that the Timberwolves also went Under in its first two games. Also note that six of the previous seven meetings between these teams have gone Under the total. Since 1996, the Clippers are 111-82 Under in home games where the total is between 190 and 199.5.
Play on: Under
LT Profits
Edmonton Oilers at New York Islanders
The New York Islanders have now won three straight games, yet they still seem to be undervalued right now after winning just one of their first ten games, so we are getting a rather favorable price at home vs. the Edmonton Oilers tonight.
The Islanders are much improved over last year and they are a respectable 4-4-5 despite there perceived terrible start. The fact of the matter is that they have actually been playing well all year, as you can see by their record where a closer look reveals that five of their nine losses have come in overtime or in shootouts.
That is simply terrible luck as games become a coin flip at that point. We are not complaining though, as their current record combined with the fact that they were legitimately the worst team in the NHL last year has them underrated right now. We suggest jumping on the Islanders bandwagon right now until the oddsmakers catch up to the fact that this team has only been blown out once all year.
Now, the Oilers are 7-6-1, but their performance has been like night and day home and away. While they are 6-2-1 at home, Edmonton is only 1-4 when traveling, mainly due to the fact that they average only 2.20 goals per game on the road. It has not helped that former All-Star goaltenders Nikolai Khabibulin has been sub-par either, with a rather high 3.12 GAA.
We will side with the up-and-coming young Isles here at a modest price vs. a bad road team like Edmonton.
Pick: Islanders -120
MTi Sports
Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Clippers
Prediction: Over
The Clippers are 10-0 OU (+20.3 ppg) with at most one day of rest after a loss in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average and the Timberwolves are 9-0 OU (+14.1 ppg) after a game on the road in which they scored at least 25 more points than in the game before. Consider these two OVER.
Karl Garrett
Atlanta at NEW ORLEANS
Easy OVER for free on Sunday on the Vikings and Packers, and I am also going for the easy OVER on Monday between the Falcons and the Saints.
Consider the fact the last 3 series meetings between the teams have played OVER the total to begin with.
You need more?
How about the fact the Saints have played OVER in 4 of 6 this season? How about the fact it is a 19-7-1 OVER run for New Orleans their last 27 overall? And finally, how about the fact 13 of the Saints last 16 at the Superdome have eclipsed the total?
Oh, and 7 of the 8 Monday night games this year have also played HIGH.
Get ready for another scoreboard being lit up under the Monday night lights.
G-Man likes the HIGH.
3♦ OVER
Dominic Fazzini
Atlanta +11' at NEW ORLEANS
I came through Sunday with a winner on my complimentary selection, taking the Rams to cover the points against Detroit. That one came in with ease, just as I expect today's play to do.
The Saints have become the darlings of the NFL, winning straight up and against the spread in all six of their games so far while scoring an NFL-high 39.7 points per game.
But the Falcons are getting absolutely no respect for tonight's game, and they're going to show people why they remain one of the NFC's best teams again this year.
Atlanta QB Matt Ryan torched New Orleans' defense for 563 yards passing in the teams' two meetings last season, and that was before the Falcons acquired future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez from Kansas City in the offseason. With Gonzalez, the Falcons should be able to move the ball and put up some big points tonight.
Plus, I expect Atlanta running back Michael Turner to regain his form from last season, helping to open things up even more for the passing game.
Saints QB Drew Brees has been shredding defenses this season, but he won't be so effective if he doesn't have much time to throw, and Falcons defensive end John Abraham is the type of player who can help his team apply big pressure on the quarterback. If Atlanta can knock Brees around a little bit, he is bound to force a throw or two into coverage tonight, resulting in turnovers.
The line on this game has moved about four points since it first came out more than a week ago, and the spread is simply too high right now. Take the Falcons to stay close in a high-scoring game and cover the points.
3♦ ATLANTA