Sports Gambling Hotline
New Jersey +7' at CHARLOTTE
The Nets are off to an 0-3 start to the season, both straight up and against the spread, while the Bobcats are out of the '09-'10 gate at 1-2 straight up.
We feel New Jersey will be in this game until the end, and we will gladly take the generous points they are getting tonight in Charlotte.
The Nets have been able to win the last pair of series meetings, and 7 of the last 9 overall straight up. New Jersey has also been able to cover the last pair of meetings, and are on a 6-2-1 spread run overall in those last 9 showdowns.
Have to stick with the trends here, as New Jersey may dip to 0-4 straight up, but with the points we feel we are golden.
Play on the Nets.
1♦ NEW JERSEY
Drew Gordon
Houston at UTAH -9
5-1 L6 Free Play releases! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Rockets/Jazz match up.
I'm not a big fan of this Rockets team, despite the fact they're coming off back-to-back wins and covers, I expect they'll get thoroughly exposed by a better, deeper Jazz team on the road tonight. Year and year out the Jazz have been money in Salt Lake, and after winning (and covering) against the Clippers in their home opener Friday, I'm looking for more of the same tonight.
A couple things should have Jazz-backers really excited here: A. The return of Mehmet Okur, the sharpshooting center, who excels at stretching the defense. His presence opens up the floor for Deron Williams, and makes this Jazz offense that much more potent. And B. In the Rockets only real road game this season (we won't count at sorry-ass Golden State), they got creamed at the Rose Garden by the Blazers... That doesn't bode well for them tonight in Utah, a place they've struggled mightily, going just 3-21 in their L24 regular season games there!
Finally, analyzing the line and public perception, its clear the betting public is liking the underdog in this spot, which has me obviously swinging the other way. Not a huge play mind you, but fact is the line on this contest is a little fishy. For a Rockets team to come into this game riding a 2-game winning streak, looking relatively good, to be a big-time dog in this spot seems like a tempting bet. But, like I've told you before, Vegas isn't in the business of hand-outs, and you'll see what I mean when Utah blows the doors off this Rockets team tonight.
Take Utah over Houston in this NBA match up.
1♦ UTAH
Stephen Nover
Memphis at SACRAMENTO -1
I wouldn't argue if you said the Sacramento Kings were the worst team in the NBA. But the Kings have an ideal situation to get their first win facing another bad team, Memphis.
The Kings are 0-3. All three losses, though, have been on the road. This is their home opener. They catch the Grizzlies off a 133-123 road loss to the Nuggets.
This is the Memphis' third game in four nights. They had to play in high altitude last night. The Grizzlies were 8-33 on the road last season.
Already the Grizzlies are looking like a real Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde team. Two things we can tell for sure right now with the Grizzlies - they aren't playing defense and there are chemistry issues.
Memphis ranks 28th defensively surrendering 112 points per game. Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo got into a heated exchange with one another last night in the loss to the Nuggets.
This isn't going to be the first time the Grizzlies have morale issues. There's not enough basketballs to go around for Gay, Mayo and ball hog Zach Randolph. If this isn't enough, Allen Iverson is slated to make his season debut tonight after missing the first three games with a partially torn hamstring.
I like the Kings' backcourt of Kevin Martin and rookie point guard Tyreke Evans, who is expected to play despite twisting his ankle on Saturday. I played Evans on a prop bet to win Rookie of the Year honors.
My handicap, though, is largely based on fading a tired, disinterested, morale-challenged Grizzlies squad against what should be a pumped up Kings team.
2♦ KINGS
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Yankees at PHILADELPHIA -135
World Series FREE winner tonight as I go with the Phillies to stave off elimination and force a Game 6 back in New York.
Tough loss for the Phillies on Sunday night as they rallied back to tie the game in the bottom of the eighth only to have closer Brad Lidge come in and pour his gas all over the fire and give up three runs in the top of the ninth. Now Philadelphia finds itself down 3-1 and facing elimination.
Huge start for the Phillies and Cliff Lee tonight and while you know he probably won’t be as dominating as he was in Game 1, he’s been nothing short of perfect in this postseason and I’m counting on him to come out and shut down the Yankees again.
Lee (14-13, 3.22) was magnificent in Game 1, throwing a complete-game, allowing one run on six hits in the 6-1 Phillies’ win. In his four postseason outings, he’s allowed five runs (two earned) over 33.1 innings and Philadelphia has won all four. In his last two starts, he’s thrown 17 innings and struck out 20 without a walk.
The Yankees are countering with A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.04) on three days of rest. He rebounded from a shaky start in the ALCS against the Angels with a strong start in Game 2 of this series and a 3-1 win as he threw seven innings, allowing four hits and one run. His road start against the Angels saw him give up six runs in six innings of a 7-6 loss.
The Phillies are getting the job done with Lee on the hill and when they are at home, they seem to get it done as well, going 11-2 in their last 13 playoff home games.
Play Philadelphia to win this one and send it back to New York for a Game 6.
3♦ PHILADELPHIA
Scott Delaney
N.Y. Yankees at Philadelphia
On the ropes and ready to get knocked out, here comes the pride of Philadelphia ... NO! Not Rocky Balboa ... Cliff Lee, the only hope the Phillies have to stay alive.
And quite frankly, after watching him throw that curve ball in Yankee Stadium in Game 1, watching his poise and maturity on the mound and watching the Yankees fall for that bent-finger breaking ball was impressive.
It's quite clear that even though he's in the National League, he's come to this World Series knowing how to utilize his four quality pitches against the most powerful lineup in the game.
He uses a fastball that doesn't get past 93 miles generally, but it's the placement of the ball that keeps batters in check. He employs a quick-sliding cutter that tails nicely. He has the changeup that fades perfectly from right-handed batters. And then there's that change.
It's arguably the most wicked breaking ball in the business right now. Much like Johan Santana's change a couple years back, when no one could touch him, this curve ball is sick.
And it's that curve ball that will keep the Phillies alive in the Fall Classic.
3♦ PHILLIES
Tony Weston
What the hell happened to the Chargers yesterday? They let the Raiders linger around and keep that game close enough that San Diego failed to cover. The Chargers didn’t cash in and I end up taking a loss on that one.
I’m not sweating that, however, because I’m delivering tonight as I’m taking the Under in Game 5 of the World Series.
The number for this one is hovering around 8 1/2 runs and these two will stay well Under that Total.
Consider that in their 7 meetings so far this season the Under has been the smart the play as the teams have seen it come through in 5 of those meetings, including each of the first games of the World Series.
Keep in mind that the Under came through when Phillies scheduled starter Cliff Lee took the mound in Game 1 of the World Series and the Under came in Game 2 when Yankees scheduled stater A.J. Burnett took the mound.
For the Yankees, the Under has come in 5 of the last 8 starts with Burnett on the mound and it has gone 20-9-3 in his last 32 starts.
Overall, the Yankees have seen the Over go 12-5-2 their last 19 games and have seen it come through in 17 of their last 24 against the National League.
These two are sticking Under the Total tonight as scoring will be at a premium.
3♦ YANKEES-PHILLIES UNDER
YANKEE CAPPER
New Orleans Saints -12
Memphis/Sacramento Over 203
Minnesota Timberwolves +8.5
Philadelphia Flyers -180
Yankees/Phillies Under 8.5
Randall the Handle
Tampa Bay +1.70 over PHILADELPHIA
Win, lose or draw, this is without doubt one of the biggest overlays of the year thus far. The Flyers have not looked good at all recently and even in its 6-1 win over the reeling Canes they ran into a very shaky goaltender and did not outplay Carolina at all. In fact, they were outshot 40-28. Previously, they lost two straight and a close look reveals just three wins in its last eight games. Those wins came against the aforementioned Canes, the Panthers and an OT win against the Bruins. Thus, Philly has just one good win (Boston) over its last eight games. The Bolts are dangerous as hell and they’re the most undervalued team in the league right now because of its slow start. They’ve yet to win on the road but that is not going to last much longer because they’re too good a team. In fact, if you exclude OT, the Lightning have lost just thee times in regulation in 12 games and they’re just getting better. I also like the fact that they’re on the road, as they’ve played four straight at home and extended home stands are seldom good. This is a sweet, sweet tag on a team on the rise against a team on the decline. Big overlay Play: Tampa Bay +1.70 (Risking 2 units).
NY ISLANDERS -½ +1.38 over Edmonton
The Oilers are a mentally and physically fragile team right now and after another road loss, its fourth in five games, this is not a good spot to snap out of it. For one, they’re not scoring goals at all and in fact, have been shutout in three of its last four games. Furthermore, they’ve been hit hard by the flu bug and whether some of them are over it or not, it still takes a big physical toll on the body and you can double that when travelling. Meanwhile, the Islanders have a ton of momentum and can’t wait to get back on the ice. They’ve won three in a row and it’s not like they’ve beaten some weak teams. They crushed the Sabres 5-0, the beat the Caps in Washington 4-3 and they beat the Rangers 3-1. That trio is three of the top four teams in the Eastern Conference and now the Islanders will take a big step down in class when facing the Oilers. The Islanders outscored those three by a combined 12-4. When a young, talented and enthusiastic team gets on a roll they’re extremely dangerous and frankly, they couldn’t have handpicked a riper team to beat right now to extend its winning streak to four. Play: NY Islanders -½ +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
Wunderdog Sports
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves 8
Looking back at the database archives, I see just one incidence where a 0-4 team has been posted as more than a seven point favorite, and that team lost the game outright. I'm not sure where this line is coming from as the Clippers have not been this big of a chalk in any of the last two seasons and at 0-4, there certainly isn't justification for them to be posted this high now either. The T-Wolves certainly aren't great, but they own a win and hung to within eight points at Phoenix, so certainly they have the potential to hang inside this number against the Clippers. The T-Wolves are never given respect on the road, and the result has been a 21-7-1 ATS mark in their last 29 road games. The Clippers are not designed for chalk at home and even against lesser numbers to topple, have accumulated a 5-16 ATS mark as home chalk. I'm riding with the T-Wolves.
Teddy Covers
Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz
PICK: Over 205
The Rockets are playing up-tempo basketball with their undersized lineup, a sharp contrast to what we’ve seen from Houston in recent years. As with any major season-to-season adjustment in playing styles, we can expect the betting marketplace to be lagging behind. That is clearly evidenced by the Rockets win and cover over Portland on Saturday, a game that went Over the total by 30 points.
Houston has very little low post offense these days. That means Rick Adelman’s squad must rely heavily on their speed and quickness; while playing pressure defense on the perimeter, looking to force easy fast break buckets. Slashers Aaron Brooks and Trevor Ariza create fouls as well, leading to points in bunches from the free throw line. Facing a Jazz team that has struggled on the defensive end in both previous games this year, look for the Rockets to approach or exceed the century mark once again tonight.
Utah’s offense matches up very well with the Rockets. Houston is undersized down low; Utah pounds the ball into the paint with Carlos Boozer and Paul Millsap. The Jazz hit the offensive glass hard, creating easy second chance looks. And the Jazz are no strangers to uptempo basketball, flying Over the total in each of their two previous games. Expect another relatively high scoring affair from these two squads tonight. Take the Over.
King Creole
Falcoms/Saints Under 55.5
Yes, there's a chance that 60 or MORE points will be scored tonight in the "Big Easy" as the undefeated NEW ORLEANS SAINTS host their division rival Atlanta Falcons. Before we 'blindly' make an AUTOMATIC play on the OVER.... let's review as many different applicable situations and scenarios as possible.
With a whopping OVER / UNDER line of 55 or more points, check this out:0-5 O/U L5Y: All NFL home favs when the OU line is 52 > points.
Monday night games have also had lower-scoring tendencies with an OU line this high.1-5-1 O/U for all MONDAY games with an OU line of 48 > points.
Let's combine the high point spread with the high OU line to see what shakes out:0-7 O/U for all DIVISION home favs of 9 > points... when the OU line is 48 > points.
NFL SOUTH Division games have had very LOW-scoring results in the first half of the season:3-14-1 O/U last 7 seasons: All NFC SOUTH division games in the FIRST half of the year... when the home team is FAVORED. And if the home team is laying "Big Chalk" (Favored by -7 > points), the results have gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U in this time span.
A recent pattern indicates a lower-than-expected outcome for teams (like the Saints) that have exploded with points in their last two games. 0-3 O/U last 3 years: All NFL teams who scored 40 or MORE points in their last 2 games.
Dennis Macklin
Los Angeles Kings vs. Phoenix Coyotes
Play: Under 5½
Take the LA Kings and Phoenox Coyotes under 5.5 goals: Interesting dichotomy of styles between these two division rivals. The Kings are more free-wheeling chance takers that try to outscore their opponents, the Desert Dogs are defensive specialists that depend on Bryzgalov between the pipes. Both games in the series have gone over but thinking Phoenix (11-5 in series L16) will dictate a more deliberate pace. Kings off B2B 2-1 shootout losses to fellow division opponents San Jose and Vancouver, the Coyotes are 11-1 under in their other twelve games not involving the Kings. Quick and Bryzgalov stonewall shooters tonight in nutz under.
Jack Jones
Houston Rockets vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Utah Jazz -7½
The home team has won 7 straight in this series. Utah has won their last 3 home meetings with Houston by 13, 7 and 22 points. I'm not a real big fan of the Rockets this year, who are playing without Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. I don't think they have what it takes to be competitive tonight in Salt Lake City against one of the best home teams in the league over the last few years. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Rockets are 12-27-1 ATS in their last 40 games following a ATS win. The Jazz are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Utah is 28-12 ATS in home games after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Jazz should be favored by double-digits tonight because that's likely their margin of victory when this one is all said and done. Take Utah.