Jack Jones
Denver Nuggets -2.5
The Denver Nuggets have absolutely owned the Golden State Warriors. Denver is 8-1 in their last 9 meetings with Golden State and as just a small favorite tonight they are showing excellent value. The Warriors are certainly improved this season, but that was because they signed David Lee who is one of the most underrated players in the league. Golden State started the season 6-2 with Lee in the line-up, but he then suffered and elbow injury and this team has not been the same since. Golden State is 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, all played without Lee.
This is certainly a tough spot for the depleted Warriors as they are playing their second of a back-to-back after getting crushed by the Lakers last night, and their 3rd game in 4 days. This play also falls under a system that is 28-7 (80%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GOLDEN STATE) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. No Lee gives the Warriors no chance of winning tonight against a Nuggets team that has their number. Bet Denver Monday.
Info Plays
3* on Atlanta Hawks -3
Reasons the Hawks cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). This is a 46-17 ATS System hitting 73% since 1996.
2.) Atlanta is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Boston. Their athleticism gives the Celtics fits, and Boston will be playing without Rajon Rondo tonight who is doubtful with a hamstring injury. The Celtics are also tired right now as this will be their second of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th game in 6 days. Bet Atlanta at home.
Larry Ness
Marquette @ Duke
Pick: Marquette +11.5
Top-ranked Duke and Marquette square off in Kansas City in semifinal action of the CBE Classic from the Sprint Center in Kansas City. Both teams are 3-0 and each will be playing away from home for the first time. The winner of this game will take on either Kansas State or Gonzaga for the tournament title on Tuesday. Duke is not only the defending champs but is also arguably, the most balanced team in the country. The Blue Devils are averaging 95.3 PPG while allowing a mere 54.3. Five players are currently averaging in double figures. Guard Nolan Smith (16.0-7.3 APG). Freshman guard Kyrie Irving (14.3-6.7 APG) follows right behind with Final MVP Kyle Singler at 14.0 PPG and 6.0 RPG. Guards Seth Curry (14.0) and Andre Dawkins (12.7) round out the group. Mason Plumlee (8.0-7.3) and his brother Miles (4.7-4.3) are not stars but play "Duke basketball," providing size and toughness inside. Marquette lost 6-6 forward Hayward (18.1-7.5) plus guards Acker (8.7) and Cubillan (6.8) from last year's 22-win team but like Duke, balance has been a strength for Marquette in its 3-0 start. The Golden Eagles average 85.0 PPG while allowing just 64.2. Marquette's made 52 percent of its shots FG attempts plus has out-rebounded opponents by a plus-14.5 rebounding margin per game. Swingman Jimmy Butler (15.5-6.0) leads four players in double figures, followed by guards Buycks (12.3-4.8 APG) and Johnson-Odom (11.5) plus 6-6 forward Crowder (11.2-8.2), who comes off the bench. Two freshman are making major contributions early on, starting guard Blue (9.0-3.8-3.8) and the 6-8 Gardner (9.8) off the bench. The 6-11 Otule (5.8-3.5) starts at center. This will be toughest challenge to date for both squads and while I expect the Blue Devils to advance to Tuesday's championship game, the win will not come easy. Duke's won its first three games by an average of 41 PPG but this win comes in under double digits. Take the points.
O.C. Dooley
Magic / Spurs Over 196.5
For more than a solid decade San Antonio annually has had one of the league’s best defensive squads which partly explains the amazing long term success with Gregg Popovich as head coach. Very quietly the Spurs are winning again this campaign as they take a league-high 10-game winning streak onto the court. What is so shocking about the Spurs is that they are incorporating young players into the mix who are lighting up the scoreboard on the “offensive” side of the floor. Eleven different San Antonio players are averaging at least six-points per contest and 5 of them range between the ages of 21-and-26 years old. San Antonio currently ranks #2 in average points scored per contest (107.8 ppg) and veteran Richard Jefferson in his second year with the team is finally getting comfortable hitting near 60-percent from the floor. Tonight’s total has been kept in relative check because Orlando’s offense has been held to “91 or less” points on the scoreboard in 3 of their most recent 4 appearances. The Magic are coming off a defensive gem where they allowed an opponent to score a grand total of just 34 points in an entire half. Despite the recent low scoring affairs, Orlando has soared OVER the total by double-digits in each of the last pair of “series” meetings with San Antonio and I am expecting that trend to continue. San Antonio is 5-2 OVER/HOME so far this campaign averaging a whopping 111 points per pop and this team long term is 9-1 OVER/HOME when taking the court at least six-times in a 10 day stretch
SPORTS WAGERS
SAN DIEGO –8½ over Denver
Won/loss records don’t always tell the true story of a team and the Bolts are living proof of that. Forget Michael Vick, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers for a second. No QB in the NFL is putting up better numbers than Philip Rivers. In a recent interview, Trent Dilfer said he’s never seen a QB have a better year than Rivers is having up to this point. Rivers is close to 3000 yards already this year and is on pace to shatter just about every passing record in a single season. He threw four TD passes in his last game and he’s going up against a defense that virtually has no shot of stopping him. The Broncos defense might be the NFL’s worst against the pass. Also note that the Broncos, since opening the season 6-0 a year ago have gone 5-16 since then. The only reason the Chargers have lost some games this season is because of bizarre plays and unusual mishaps. The fact that this team is 4-5 on the year is just so crazy because the Chargers are a powerful squad on both sides of the ball. They rank in the top three in every key defensive and offensive category and one has to figure them to score 40 or more against this soft defense. This is a Bolts team that does not lose in late November and you can triple that at home on a Monday night. Yeah, the points look juicy but they’re not going to look juicy when the Broncs are trailing by 28. Play: San Diego –8½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
GOLDEN STATE +1.20 over Denver
Without doubt, the Nuggets are the more talented group here but it takes a lot more than talent to win games at this level. The Nuggets come in here with the exact same record as the Warriors, that being 7-6. If all things were equal, the Nuggets would be a 50+ win club but all things are not equal for them. Denver is led my Carmelo Anthony and it’s no secret he wants out. His mind is in it half the time and the other half he’s completely out of focus. This is a guy that should be going off for 25-30 points a game and some nights he’s off that mark by 10 or more. If he’s not “into” it, how can one expect his teammates to be? As Melo goes, so do the Nuggets and chances are good he’ll be saving himself for upcoming home games against the Bulls and Suns. Denver is 2-5 on the road and that includes a couple of real ugly losses to Indiana and Houston. As for the Warriors, well, they may not be as talented as Denver but they want to win 10 times more. They play their hearts out all game and after a severe beating last night, you can expect to see a whole different team tonight. Besides, this isn’t the Lakers they’re playing. The Warriors are 5-1 at home and they play incredibly hard in front of their enthusiastic and very supportive home crowd. The Nuggets are soft on the road because Melo is not setting a good example and the others are following his lack of effort. Play: Golden State +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
SAN ANTONIO –3½ over Orlando
The Magic come in as one of the elite teams in the East for sure and quite possibly the whole league. However, we’re just not that sold on them right now. Orlando is 11-3 but all of its wins with the exception of a four-point victory over Atlanta have been against teams under .500. They also have a home loss to the Raptors and its other two losses came against the only other two teams above .500, the Jazz and Heat. In fact, they not only loss to Miami and Utah but they lost them both by double-digits and it’s also worth noting that they have a rematch with in-state rival Miami on deck Wednesday night. You can be sure that the talk around Orlando is not this game. The Magic have struggled with bad teams and have gotten whacked by good one’s The Spurs are 11-1 and they’ve never looked better. They’ve won 10 in a row and they just beat the Jazz in Utah by 12. The Spurs only loss of the year came against the red-hot Hornets and aside from that game they’re absolutely destroying teams on its home court. Orlando has more important fish to fry and frankly, they just haven’t been that impressive and you can double that against quality teams. Play: San Antonio –3½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Los Angeles +1.01 over OTTAWA
Since attending the funeral of Luke Richardson’s daughter the Sens have not been the same group. That event has changed the course of its season and they may get their groove back at some point but it’s very unlikely to occur here. The Sens return home for the first time since that tragic event after playing four in a row on the road. They’ve lost three in a row and have been outscored 17-4 over that stretch and have allowed five goals or more in all three games. The Kings are among the elite teams in the league and after losing three of its last four and allowing 18 goals in the process, they’re in no position to take anyone lightly or take a night off. The Kinfs snapped a three game losing streak with a 4-3 OT win against the Bruins and while they’ll take the result they can’t be happy about the way they were outplayed. Having said that, a single win does wonders to team morale and confidence and unlike the Sens, the Kings will very likely have its groove back for this one. The Sens are a team in trouble. Play: Lo Angeles +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
Washington -½ +1.05 over NEW JERSEY
The bad news for the Devils here aside from being the Devils is that they’re playing a Caps squad that has dropped two in a row. Washington will have no sympathy for this bitter rival that can’t get out of its own way. In addition, the Devils will return home after a three-game trip and playing at home is only going to add more grief to this already bad nightmare. New Jersey has one win at home all season and it came against the bottom feeding Oilers in OT. Fans are quickly losing interest and playing to a crowd with a ton of empty seats is not inspiring at all. The Devils have scored just three goals in its last three games, all losses and that includes a loss in Toronto in which the Maple Leafs made them look bad. The Devils return home in a fragile state with a unproven goaltending duo, a bunch of rookie D-Men and an offense that has not been producing. The Caps have to smell a kill here and this is a team they enjoy beating as much as any other. Play: Washington -½ +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
Joel Tyson
Denver at SAN DIEGO
Free play tonight goes on the "over" in tonight's clash between the Broncos and Chargers.
The case for plenty of points tonight is too overpowering, as Denver is on a 12-2 over clip their last 14 games, and they have played 7 straight overs away from home!
San Diego is on a 9-4 over run their last 13 at Qualcomm Stadium, and that includes an easy over between these rivals last season in a game that also happened to come on a Monday night.
6 of the last 8 times the Broncos and Chargers have played have landed in the over column, and this one will as well.
Points add up in a hurry when these 2 tangles.
Over is the call at the Q tonight!
5♦ OVER
Stephen Nover
Indiana at MIAMI (-10)
Miami is proving to be highly overrated with an 8-5 record. Worse, the Heat may again be without Dwayne Wade and definitely will be missing Udonis Haslem, who has a torn ligament in his foot.
Haslem is far more valuable than just his eight-point scoring average. He averages 8.2 rebounds, is an excellent defender and a co-captain who provides leadership. The Heat lose a lot more than just stats if Haslem and Wade are both missing.
Indiana is improved this season. The Pacers nearly upset Orlando, losing 90-86 despite shooting less than 40 percent from the floor. Miami's big weakness is lack of a center. The Pacers' Roy Hibbert can take advantage. He's been one of the best centers in the Eastern Conference this season making major improvements in his all around game.
2♦ INDIANA
Karl Garrett
Orlando at SAN ANTONIO (-4)
Free play tonight on the Spurs to handle the Magic.
At 11-1 this season, the Spurs have been a bit of a surprise. They come into tonight's game with a 10 game winning streak under their belts, and better still is the fact they have covered in each of their last 5 wins.
Orlando comes into this one having won 3 of 4 on the road this year, but they have yet to cover a road game at 0-4, and they lost by a dozen last year in their lone visit to San Antone.
The home team is on a 6-2 spread run the last 8 series meetings, and right now the Spurs are too hot to go against.
Push the winning streak to 11 in a row, and 6 covers in a row.
Take the Spurs.
4♦ SAN ANTONIO
Craig Davis
Orlando (+3') at SAN ANTONIO
Today's free play is on the Orlando Magic. I like the underdog here as I'm still just not sold on the Spurs and their quick start. I'm not discounting what Poppovich has been able to do with this team, year in and year out. But then again, when you have Tim Duncan every year, it makes things a bit easier.
The Spurs are looking to match their longest winning streak in almost three years when they host the Orlando Magic tonight. After starting last season off with a 6-6 record in their first 12 games (which led them to have to bust their butts at the end of the year to get into the playoffs and earn the 7-seed in the West), the Spurs have been determined to get off to a better start this season.
San Antonio ranks second in the league with 107.8 points per game, compared to last season when they were only at 101.4 ppg. And considering they were always known as a defensive team, it definitely surprises me to see them so focused on offense.
Orlando hasn't been winning games pretty, but they have won five in a row with Saturday night's win, improving their record to 9-3 on the season. And Orlando has been playing much like the Spurs of old... average offense, solid defense. Orlando ranks first in the league in points allowed at 90.3 and fifth in rebounding, pulling down 43.6 per game.
The Magic are 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings with San Antonio, and anytime you match up a solid defensive team with a solid offensive team, my money is usually going on the defensive team. It's kinda like the old saying in baseball... great pitching beats great hitting anyday.
Even though the Spurs look "prettier" on paper, they also haven't played the same schedule as Orlando through 12 games, and that's why I give the Magic the advantage. Even if the Spurs pull off this win, I still don't think they cover the 4-point line. I expect this one to come down to a last-second shot.
3♦ ORLANDO
Bobby Maxwell
Orlando (+3') at SAN ANTONIO
For my comp selection, after two ugly games in a row, the Magic have certainly found their defense again, dominating the last four games and not allowing any of the four foes more than 90 points. I suspect they are going to do the same to the Spurs tonight in San Antonio. So go ahead and grab whatever points you can get and play Orlando.
San Antonio is playing its third game in four nights with this one after winning at Utah on Friday and then returning home to beat the Cavaliers on Saturday night. These guys aren’t exactly youngsters, so that is a lot of games in a short time for old legs.
Orlando is holding teams to 89.4 points a game in the last five and 43.8 percent shooting. Meanwhile, at home, the Spurs actually give up 100.4 points per game and allow the opposition to shoot 46.8 percent. The Magic’s Dwight Howard is a tough matchup for anybody and he will cause problems for the Spurs’ DeJuan Blair and Tim Duncan.
Orlando is on ATS surges of 7-1 on Mondays, 4-1 against the Western Conference and 4-1 against Southwest Division teams. I like the way this team plays when the defense is there. They hit the open shot and get Howard in prime scoring positions.
Grab the points and go with Orlando.
5♦ ORLANDO
Derek Mancini
Sacramento at UTAH (-11)
At first glance, it may seem like a lot to lay tonight in Salt Lake, and it's no surprise the public is showing the Kings some love here. But once you get into the "meat" of this match up, its clear the Kings are in big trouble Monday.
The biggest indicator has to be recent play, as this Sacto offense has been struggling mightily, averaging 89 ppg on 42% shooting over their L5 games (1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS). And it's not like they're playing the cream of the crop either, besides New Orleans, they've lost to the Suns, Pistons and Knicks over that span - three very marginal NBA teams.
Tonight they not only take a major step up in competition, but they're doing so on the road, and with no rest! That trifecta of factors is the backbone for fading the Kings here. Note that despite all their struggles over the L5 games, FOUR of those five games were at home... So, to answer you're question: Yes, it can get worse Sacramento.
Besides the All-Star level play of both Williams and Millsap, both Jefferson and AK-47 are enjoying resurgences this season. Jazz have one of the better and more balanced starting 5's in the NBA, and it'll show against one of the lesser starting 5's in the Kings. Take away Evans, and this Kings offense is nothing but a bunch of average players (Cousins is obviously special, but he's young and up against a very good Jazz frontline). Not to mention, pairing Evans with journeyman Luther Head, means there's basically no point guard on the floor. Don't tell me you consider Evans, and his 5.3 assists per game, a point guard. (and Head only has 24 assists on the season). The Jazz enjoy big situational and match up edges in this one... Lay it with Utah over Sacramento Monday.
4♦ UTAH
Scott Delaney
Sacramento at UTAH (-11)
The Jazz are going to take it to the Kings tonight, mark my words, as they'll take advantage of a Sacramento team that lost to New Orleans, 75-71, yesterday.
It was the Kings' seventh loss in eight games, and now they'll have to play the second of back-to-back nights in that notorious altitude.
Not good for a team that has struggled offensively after scoring 108.8 per game in their first four games of the season.
The Kings, who are now sitting at 4-8, are averaging 90.8 points during this skid.
Checking the betting numbers, the Kings are on losing runs of 2-7 after an ATS cover, 1-4 versus the Western Conference and 2-9 overall.
I'd much rather take the Jazz, who are on ATS runs of 12-4 against teams with a losing record, 5-2 when laying 11 or more at home and 6-2 overall.
3♦ UTAH
Chris Jordan
New Orleans (-5') at LOS ANGELES
I love New Orleans laying this low number against the lowly Clippers, as it'll be out to avenge last night's 32.2 percent shooting performance in its 75-71 win at Sacto.
On Nov. 9, six Hornets scored in double figures during a 101-82 rout of the Clippers, New Orleans’ 14th straight win in the series.
Meanwhile, the Clippers have lost nine straight, and come in having allowed an average of 110.6 points over their last nine games.
Los Angeles, which is off to its worst start since dropping its first 17 games 12 years ago, is on ATS slides of 18-44 against Southwest Division teams, 2-5 when catching points in this range, 1-6 at home and 1-4 overall.
On the other hand, New Orleans is on spread streaks of 7-0 in L.A. against these Clippers, 19-7 in this series and the favortie is on a 13-3 run.
4♦ NEW ORLEANS
Michael Cannon
New Orleans (-5') at LA CLIPPERS
For tonight’s free play take the Hornets minus the points over the Clippers.
I know this is a potential flat spot for a New Orleans team that is off to a 12-1 start and playing on the road. But the Hornets are so well coached and so defensively sound I really can’t see them getting it done over the Clippers.
The woeful Clippers are off to a 1-13 start and have lost nine straight. They have allowed an average of 110.6 points per game during their skid and it won’t get any better against a Hornets team that has beaten them 14 straight times.
Lay the points as the Hornets roll to the easy win and cover.
3♦ NEW ORLEANS
Chuck O'Brien
Gonzaga (+4') vs. Kansas St. (at Kansas City)
For Monday’s complimentary selection in college basketball, take Gonzaga plus the points in a neutral-site non-conference game against Kansas State.
I’m willing to give the Zags a mulligan for Tuesday’s 79-76 home loss to San Diego State – just Gonzaga’s fifth loss on its home court in the last 95 games – because the Aztecs are a legit Top 20 team that has Sweet 16 potential.
I’m not, however, willing to give Kansas State a pass for its last performance, a lethargic 76-67 home win over Presbyterian on Thursday. The Wildcats allowed a Division II squad to come into its building and make 50 percent of its shots, and K-State barely won the rebounding battle (31-29). Also, the Wildcats made just 9 of 19 free throws, and through three games – all at home – they’re shooting a woeful 50.6 percent from the charity stripe.
If you can’t make free throws at home, how are you going to make them at a neutral venue? And if you’re missing half of your foul shots, how can you be trusted to lay points against a Top 25 team that’s shooting 54.4 percent overall and 73.4 percent from the foul line?
Gonzaga has cashed in four straight games after a defeat, six of eight non-conference contests and nine of 12 against teams with a winning record. Also, the Bulldogs went 7-2 ATS as an underdog last season.
3♦ GONZAGA