SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL
Tennessee (3-6, 4-5 ATS) at Houston (5-4, 5-3-1 ATS)
After beginning the season with six straight losses, the Titans now head to Reliant Stadium in search of their fourth straight victory as they take on the Texans in an AFC South clash.
Tennessee scored a 41-17 win over Buffalo last weekend, cashing as nine-point favorites as they broke open a 17-17 tie by scoring the final 24 points. During their 0-6 start to the season (1-5 ATS), the Titans topped the 17-point mark only once, but since coach Jeff Fisher made the switch at QB from Kerry Collins to Vince Young, the offense has exploded for 30 or more in three consecutive SU and ATS wins.
The Titans still ranks just 21st in total offense (332 yards per game), but they now have the league’s second-best rushing attack at 161.8 ypg. RB Chris Johnson leads the NFL in rushing and during the winning streak, the second-year pro has 495 rushing yards, 136 receiving yards and six total touchdowns. On the downside, Tennessee’s defense is 30th in the 32-team NFL in points-allowed (28.3 per game) and 31st in pass defense (270.4 ypg, just a yard better than lowly Detroit).
Houston won three of its last four (3-0-1 ATS) going into its bye last week. The Texans last played on Nov. 8 when they went to Indianapolis and fell 20-17, covering as 7½-point underdogs. Houston’s offense ranks sixth in the league at 374.9 ypg, with QB Matt Schaub leading the third most-prolific passing attack at 283.7 ypg. The Texans are middle of the pack when it comes to defense, ranking 17th in total defense (332.1 ypg), but they have not been able to get to opposing quarterbacks this season, ranking next to last in sacks with just 11.
These teams played a shootout in Week 2 this season with Schaub throwing for 357 yards and four TDs to lead the Texans to a 34-31 road win as seven-point road ‘dogs. Houston has won the last two meetings (2-0 ATS) after dropping seven in a row to the Titans (6-1 ATS). The underdog is on a 9-3 ATS streak in the last 12 meetings.
Tennessee is on ATS slides of 2-5 on the road, 0-5 against winning teams and 1-5 against AFC South rivals, but the Titans are on positive pointspread runs of 4-0 in November, 16-7 as an underdog and 4-1 in Week 11 games. Houston is on modest ATS runs of 4-0 in November games, 5-1 against AFC South rivals and 5-2 in Week 11.
The Titans are on “over” streaks of 6-2 overall, 4-0 on the road, 4-1 in November and 5-1 against AFC squads. The Texans have topped the total in 20 of 27 against the AFC South but they’re also on “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 4-1 after a bye week, 8-2 after a spread-cover and 7-2 against teams with a losing record. In this rivalry, the over has been the play in six of the last seven overall and five of the last six in Houston.
Finally, the last two Monday Night Football games have stayed under the total following a 19-5-1 “over” streak. The over is 8-3 on Monday this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Chicago (6-6, 4-8 ATS) at Portland (10-5, 9-6 ATS)
The Bulls continue their six-game West Coast road trip with a stop at the Rose Garden in Portland to take on the Trail Blazers.
Chicago opened the trip with a victory at Sacramento on Tuesday, but it has dropped the last two, falling 108-93 at the Lakers as a 9½-point ‘dog Thursday, then losing in Denver on Saturday 112-93 as an eight-point pup. Chicago, which has scored more than 94 points just once this season, shoots 43.2 percent from the floor but just 29 percent from behind the three-point line.
Portland has alternated wins and losses over its last six outings, including Saturday night’s 106-78 home win over Minnesota, cashing in as a 13-point favorite. All five starters scored double-digits for the Blazers on Saturday, led by Martell Webster’s 21 points and 13 rebounds, while Steve Blake had 14 points and nine assists.
The Trail Blazers have won four straight (3-1 ATS) in this series, including a 116-74 blowout win in Portland last season as a 6½-point favorite. Portland is 5-3 ATS in the last eight meetings and the straight-up winner has gotten the cash in eight of the last 10 matchups.
Despite failing to get the money at L.A. and at Denver in the last two, Chicago has still cashed in 14 of its last 18 games against Western Conference teams and seven of its last 10 Monday games, but the Bulls are also on negative ATS streaks of 1-4 overall, 2-6 on the road, 1-7 after getting a day off and 0-7-1 after a straight-up loss. The Blazers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five against the Eastern Conference, but they’re otherwise on positive ATS runs of 7-3 overall, 11-5 at home, 7-2 on Mondays, 5-1 after spread-cover and 5-2 after a straight-up win.
The Bulls are on modest “under” streaks of 5-1 overall, 5-1 on the road, 4-1 against Western Conference teams and 7-0 after a non-cover. Portland has topped the total in seven straight Monday contests, but otherwise it is on “under” streaks of 5-1 overall, 7-1 at home, 8-3 after a spread-cover and 4-1 after getting a day off. In this series, the “over” is 4-1 in the last five contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(3) Texas (2-0 SU and ATS) vs. Iowa (1-2 SU and ATS)
(at Kansas City, Mo.)
Third-ranked Texas takes its high-scoring offense to the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo., for a non-conference showdown with Iowa in the CBE Classic.
Texas is averaging 81 points through two games, destroying UC Irvine 89-42 as a 26½-point home favorite in the season opener and then crushing Western Carolina a 73-41 as a 23½-point home chalk Wednesday. The Longhorns are shooting 55 percent from the floor through two games and limiting the opposition to 41.5 points a game, along with 26.8 percent shooting overall and 17.2 percent shooting from beyond the three-point line.
Iowa struggled coming out of the gate, losing its first games at home to Texas-San Antonio 62-50 as a nine-point favorite, followed by a 52-50 setback to Duquesne as a 1½-point underdog. The Hawkeyes bounced back on Friday, crushing Bowling Green 68-46 and easily cashing as a 9½-point favorite. Iowa is having issues on offense, shooting just 37.3 percent from the floor and 29.1 percent from behind the three-point line.
These teams met in late-November in 2004 and 2005 in Texas, with Iowa taking the first meeting 82-80 as a 3½-point ‘dog, while the Longhorns got revenge in 2005 with a 68-59 victory as a four-point favorites.
Texas is on ATS runs of 4-0 overall, 20-8 on Mondays and 4-0 in non-conference games, but it is on ATS slides of 4-12 after a spread-cover and 0-4 against teams with losing records. Iowa is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine neutral-site games.
The Longhorns have topped the total in eight of 11 after a straight-up win and five of six after a spread-cover, but they have stayed below the posted number in 11 of 14 on Monday. Iowa is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 5-1 overall, 5-1 in non-conference action, 6-2 against Big 12 teams, 5-2 in neutral-site games and 4-1 after a straight-up win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS
SPORTS INSIGHTS
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
One of our more colorful offshore contacts circled this game early in the week. We spoke to this line-maker and he was carrying on about some of his sportsbook's sharpest bettors piling onto Houston early in the week. The line opened at Houston -3.5 but moved to -4.5 at most books by Monday! SportsInsights flagged this move as "steam moves" early in the week.
Our contact said that Tennessee was attracting some Square money because they reeled off three wins in a row. However, the wins have been against the likes of mediocre teams like Jacksonville, San Francisco, and Buffalo. The last win was a blow-out win of 41-17 over Buffalo. Needless to say, our guy thinks the Titans are overrated right now. On the other hand, Houston lost a very tough decision to undefeated Indianapolis -- at Indy -- by a score of 20-17, last week.
Houston, with its 5-4 record, looks a bit undervalued, while Tennessee is overrated with its current three-game winning streak. Let's "buy low" and "sell high" and take a "surprising" favorite as a contrarian play ("surprising" because we don't often find value on favorites).
Houston Texans -4.5
MTi Sports
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Prediction: Over
Tennessee is 9-0 OU as a dog after scoring at least 4 touchdowns and the Texans are 9-0 OU (+14.4 ppg) after a game in which they punted fewer than four times and gained fewer than 100 rushing yards. In addition, the Texans are 5-0 OU as a favorite when hosting a team that has won at least their last two games, going over by an average of 12.6 ppg. Take these two OVER it should be a good show.
EZWINNERS
Milwaukee Bucks @ San Antonio Spurs
Play: Milwuakee Bucks +9
The Bucks are off to a very surprising 8-3 start this season behind solid play from rookie Brandon Jennings. The Spurs have been struggling having lost five out of their last eight games and San Antonio is dealing with injuries to Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli. For whatever reason, Milwaukee has been a thorn in the Spurs side. The Bucks have won five out of the last eight meetings with the Spurs and only one of those San Antonio wins was by double digits. Take the points.
Randall the Handle
Titans @ Texans
Texans are undependable and when you consider that they lost home games already to the mediocre Jaguars and Jets, it would be foolish to give away points to a surging Titans squad. Tennessee lost to Houston earlier and is now afforded a national stage to make amends.TAKING: Tennessee +4½
Vegas Vick
Titans (+5) over TEXANS
We have been riding Tennessee for the last two and don't plan to get off the money train right now. Coming into the bye week, the Titans were 0-6 and going nowhere. After the bye, Vince Young took over for Kerry Collins, and Tennessee has won three in a row, covered all three, winning by an average of 16 points per game. And not to belabor the homecoming angle, but guess where Mr. Young was born? Yup, Houston.
JIM FEIST
SACRAMENTO KINGS / MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
TAKE: OVER
The Sacramento Kings are the seventh highest scoring team in the NBA this season with a 104.25 ppg average. They have been very consistent both at home and on the road where their road average is 104. The Kings have gone over in five of their last six games. Defensively, the Kings are 26th in the league, allowing an average of 104.38 ppg. On the road they allow a slightly higher 105.33 ppg. The Grizzlies rank slightly better defensively, allowing 100.25 ppg (19th). These clubs have already met once this season and that game resulted in a Sacramento win, 127-116. That makes three of the last four meetings that have gone OVER the total between these teams. In fact, the last five meetings have averaged 214 points per contest. The Kings have had little trouble scoring points or for that matter keeping opposing teams from scoring. Sit back, enjoy the show and watch this game go OVER the total on Monday.
DUNKEL INDEX
Tennessee at Houston
The Titans look to build on their 9-1 ATS record in their last 10 games as an underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Tennessee is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has the Texans favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+5)
Game 435-436: Tennessee at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 134.417; Houston 136.049
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Houston by 5; 48
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+5); Over
NBA
Milwaukee at San Antonio
The Bucks look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games as an underdog. Milwaukee is the pick (+9) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+9)
Game 701-702: Sacramento at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 113.493; Memphis 116.785
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 3 1/2; 208 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 703-704: Milwaukee at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 118.899; San Antonio 123.150
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 4 1/2; 184 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 9; 192
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+9); Under
Game 705-706: Chicago at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 115.753; Portland 127.548
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 12; 185 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 8 1/2; 181 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-8 1/2); Over
Game 707-708: Minnesota at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 104.043; LA Clippers 115.937
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 12; 189
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NCAAB
Colgate at TCU
The Horned Frogs look to build on their 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 Monday games. TCU is the pick (-15) according to Dunkel, which has the Horned Frogs favored by 18 1/2. Dunkel Pick: TCU (-15)
Game 709-710: Illinois State at Illinois-Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 63.731; Illinois-Chicago 61.701
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 2
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois-Chicago (+5 1/2)
Game 711-712: Western Michigan at Loyola-Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 50.938; Loyola-Chicago 54.127
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Chicago by 3
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 1
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Chicago (+1)
Game 713-714: San Diego State at Fresno State
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 61.029; Fresno State 54.992
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 6
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-4 1/2)
Game 715-716: San Francisco at UC-Santa Barbara
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Francisco 49.630; UC-Santa Barbara 56.842
Dunkel Line: UC-Santa Barbara by 7
Vegas Line: UC-Santa Barbara by 6
Dunkel Pick: UC-Santa Barbara (-6)
Game 717-718: Cal Poly at St. Mary's (CA)
Dunkel Ratings: Cal Poly 46.604; St. Mary's (CA) 67.596
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 21
Vegas Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 22
Dunkel Pick: Cal Poly (+22)
Game 719-720: Pepperdine at UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: Pepperdine 45.843; UCLA 68.384
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: UCLA by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-14 1/2)
Game 721-722: South Dakota State vs. East Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 53.947; East Carolina 47.560
Dunkel Line: South Dakota State by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 723-724: Northern Iowa vs. Boston College
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 60.572; Boston College 65.300
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 725-726: DePaul vs. St. Joseph's
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 56.046; St. Joseph's 59.309
Dunkel Line: St. Joseph's by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 727-728: Tennessee vs. Purdue
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 75.960; Purdue 71.393
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 729-730: Colorado vs. Gonzaga
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 54.877; Gonzaga 68.440
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-10 1/2)
Game 731-732: Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 61.330; Vanderbilt 66.662
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 4
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-4)
Game 733-734: Maryland vs. Chaminade
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 69.763; Chaminade (No Rating)
Dunkel Line: N/A
Vegas Line: N/A
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 735-736: Arizona vs. Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 66.811; Wisconsin 69.036
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 2
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 3
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3)
Game 737-738: NC Central vs. James Madison
Dunkel Ratings: NC Central 31.449; James Madison 50.233
Dunkel Line: James Madison by 19
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 739-740: Murray State vs. Florida International
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 56.578; Florida International 40.991
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 741-742: Binghamton vs. Duquesne
Dunkel Ratings: Binghamton 51.097; Duquesne 63.421
Dunkel Line: Duquesne by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Duquesne by 22
Dunkel Pick: Binghamton (+22)
Game 743-744: Ark-Monticello vs. Western Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Ark-Monticello (No Rating); Western Carolina 47.845
Dunkel Line: N/A
Vegas Line: N/A
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 745-746: Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Eastern Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Fairleigh Dickinson 40.082; Eastern Kentucky 49.752
Dunkel Line: Eastern Kentucky by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Eastern Kentucky by 10
Dunkel Pick: Fairleigh Dickinson (+10)
Game 747-748: TX-San Antonio vs. UC-Irvine
Dunkel Ratings: TX-San Antonio 54.906; UC-Irvine 46.961
Dunkel Line: TX-San Antonio by 8
Vegas Line: TX-San Antonio by 3
Dunkel Pick: TX-San Antonio (-3)
Game 749-750: Wichita State vs. Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 60.555; Pittsburgh 71.665
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 11
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-6)
Game 751-752: Texas vs. Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 73.545; Iowa 56.134
Dunkel Line: Texas by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-15 1/2)
Game 753-754: Yale vs. Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 48.310; Charlotte 59.148
Dunkel Line: Charlotte by 11
Vegas Line: Charlotte by 12
Dunkel Pick: Yale (+12)
Game 755-756: Elon vs. Hofstra
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 45.520; Hofstra 56.088
Dunkel Line: Hofstra by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Hofstra by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Elon (+13 1/2)
Game 757-758: Coastal Carolina vs. Indiana State
Dunkel Ratings: Coastal Carolina 50.287; Indiana State 57.144
Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 7
Vegas Line: Indiana State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (-6)
Game 759-760: CS-Northridge at Western Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Northridge 52.234; Western Kentucky 66.810
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 15
Dunkel Pick: CS-Northridge (+15)
Game 761-762: Texas State vs. WI-Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Texas State 50.436; WI-Milwaukee 55.271
Dunkel Line: WI-Milwaukee by 5
Vegas Line: WI-Milwaukee by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas State (+9 1/2)
Game 763-764: Colgate at TCU
Dunkel Ratings: Colgate 44.455; TCU 62.745
Dunkel Line: TCU by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: TCU by 15
Dunkel Pick: TCU (-15)
Game 765-766: Appalachian State at Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: Appalchian State 49.433; Louisville 81.716
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 32 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 767-768: Florida Atlantic at Manhattan
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 42.603; Manhattan 53.042
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 769-770: Montana at Oregon
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 54.659; Oregon 65.669
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 11
Vegas Line: Oregon by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montana (+14 1/2)
NHL
Carolina at Dallas
The Hurricanes look to take advantage of a Dallas team that is coming off a 5-3 win over New Jersey, but is 0-4 in its last 4 games after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. Carolina is the pick (+180) according to Dunkel, which has the Hurricanes favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+180)
Game 51-52: Detroit at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.885; Nashville 12.496
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100); Over
Game 53-54: Columbus at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 12.050; NY Rangers 11.938
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+120); Over
Game 55-56: NY Islanders at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 10.840; Toronto 10.527
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-125); 6
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+115); Over
Game 57-58: Pittsburgh at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.943; Florida 12.432
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+105); Over
Game 59-60: Washington at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.255; Ottawa 11.618
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-125); Over
Game 61-62: Boston at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.235; St. Louis 11.734
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-110); Over
Game 63-64: Carolina at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.814; Dallas 11.769
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+180); Under
Game 65-66: Philadelphia at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.383; Colorado 11.261
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-115); Under
Game 67-68: Phoenix at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 11.437; Edmonton 11.849
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-130); Under
Game 69-70: Calgary at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.513; Anaheim 11.868
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-110); Under
VEGAS EXPERTS
Milwaukee Bucks at San Antonio Spurs
The Bucks beat the Spurs twice last season and have in fact covered 16 of the previous 22 meetings. Since suffering a 99-86 loss in the season opener to Philadelphia as six-point dogs, Milwaukee is a perfect 4-0 ATS as underdogs, including three outright wins. San Antonio is 13-30 ATS when coming off back to back home games.
Play on: Milwaukee
LT Profits
Calgary at Anaheim
The Anaheim Ducks have a losing record at home this season of 5-7 while the Calgary Flames are a scintillating 7-1-2 on the road, but we feel that a correction is in order this evening.
This is the first meeting between these teams this year, but the Ducks won three of the four head-to-head meetings with the Flames last season including both encounters in Anaheim, which has always been a house of horrors for Calgary. In fact, the Ducks are 18-4-4 in the last 26 meetings in The Pond.
Now Anaheim has lost five of their last six games, but four of those contests were on the road and they were a home underdog vs. the San Jose Sharks in the other. We feel that the Ducks will close as small favorites here before all is said and done, and they are 3-0 the last three times they have played n the home favorite role.
Besides, the Flames have not exactly been hot themselves, going just 2-3 in their last five games. Granted, both wins came on the road, but we feel that the Ducks are a tougher assignment than those last two teams they beat on the road, the Toronto Maple Leafs and Los Angeles Kings. It is also worth noting that leading scorer Jarome Iginla has gone scoreless in his last six meetings with the Ducks and in 10 of the last 11 matchups.
We look for the Ducks to continue their home dominance over the Flames here at a cheap price, as Anaheim is an underrated team right now that should turn things around soon.
Pick: Ducks -110
BEN BURNS
Boston Bruins @ St. Louis Blues
PICK: St. Louis Blues -115
I won "premium (guaranteed) plays" on the Blues in each of their last two games. After playing hard and coming up just short in several games, I felt that they were ready to break out of their slump. An overtime victory two games ago was "just what the doctor ordered" (as it created some momentum) and I came back and successfully played on them again in their last game, a 4-1 victory. Tonight's opponent, Boston, also brings a 2-game winning streak to the table. However, I believe that the Blues have an excellent shot at becoming the first of these teams to win three in a row this season.
While the Bruins are playing the third leg of a 4-game road trip, the Blues are wrapping up a 6-game homestand. A win would get them to 500 in those six games, something they'd badly like to achieve.
While I'm not necessarily sure the same can be said of the Bruins, I believe that the Blues are better than their current record indicates. After being so impressed with their last effort, even Isles coach Scott Gordon had this to say of them: "I can't believe (the Blues) are just .500. That just blows my mind with the talent they have."
The Blues have dominated the Bruins. They're 13-3 (+11.6) the last 16 meetings including a 7-1 (+6) mark here at St. Louis. Consider the Blues.
MATT FARGO
Cincinnati @ Vanderbilt
PICK: Cincinnati +4.5
Cincinnati should be a very improved team this season. The Bearcats finished 18-14 last year including 8-10 in the Big East and they return four starters as well as bringing in two very talented freshmen. Depth was an issue for this team the last few seasons but with a full roster for the first time under fourth-year head coach Mick Cronin, expectations are once again on the upswing for the Bearcats. The best player on this team is guard Deonta Vaughn who is a two-time All-Big East selection but there is plenty of talent around him. Yancy Gates averaged double figures last season and was named to the All-Big East Freshman team while Rashad Bishops joins him down low and is the best defender on the team. Two of the players that could make the difference this season are both in their first year. True point guard Cashmere Wright was injured last season and is back healthy while incoming freshman Lance Stephenson is considered one of the best incoming rookies in the entire country. Cincinnati had trouble getting points last season as it was 12th in the Big East and 158th nationally but with all of the pieces in place, that should improve greatly. Vanderbilt is no slouch either and it will be a player in the SEC this season. The Commodores return all five starters to a team that endured a number of injuries and bad luck last season and it results in Vanderbilt missing the postseason for the first time in six years. It is coming off a big win at St. Mary’s in its last game but the matchup here is not in its favor. The team is athletic but not very physical and that is not good against a very physical Cincinnati team. The Commodores will be at a disadvantage down low and that is partly due to center A.J. Ogilvy still not at 100 percent. Vanderbilt has gotten outrebounded by five per game in the first two games while the Bearcats +13.5 rpg through their first two games. Vanderbilt is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games following a win by six points or fewer and being on the road for a lengthy period, as it travelled last Wednesday to St. Mary’s, that will make thing even tougher. 3* Cincinnati Bearcats
Tom Freese
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Florida Panthers
Play: Under 5½
Florida is 12-5-2 UNDER their last 19 games vs. Atlantic Division teams and they are 5-2 UNDER off a straight up win. The Panthers are 4-1-1 UNDER after allowing 2 goals or less in their last game and they are 3-1-1 UNDER when playing their third game in four nights. Pittsburgh is 8-3 UNDER their last 11 games vs. Eastern Conference teams and they are 4-1-1 UNDER after allowing 2 goals or less in their last game. The Penguins are 26-12-3 UNDER their last 41 Monday games and they are 7-3-1 UNDER their last 11 meetings vs. the Panthers. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Randall the Handle
Boston +1.00 over ST. LOUIS
The Bruins pretty much have a full, healthy team, as Marc Savard will come off the IR today and play in this one. The Bruins have a little momentum going with back-to-back road wins in Atlanta and Buffalo and they’re sure not taking a step up in class here. Savard could be a bit rusty but then again he’s one of the hardest working players in the league and just his presence alone gives the team a boost and instantly makes them a whole lot better. The Blue Notes have back-to-back wins also, however, it came against two teams, the Coyotes and Islanders that were both dead tired. In fact, when the Islanders came to St. Louis it was the their sixth consecutive road game and when the Coyotes visited it was their fifth game in seven days, its third in four days and the tail end of back-to-backs. Prior to those two very winnable games, the Blue Notes had lost six of seven and over those seven losses they scored six lousy goals. St. Louis is dead last in the NHL in power-play percentage, which now stands at 12.7%. It’s also worth noting that the Blues have been at home for an extended amount of time (14 days) and that’s never beneficial. The Bruins are in the more favorable spot, they’re hungrier, healthier, superior and so ready. Play: Boston +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
NASHVILLE –1.06 over Detroit
They have recent wins over Columbus, New Jersey and San Jose. They’ve won five in a row and six of its last seven games. They play as good or better defensively than anyone in the business and nobody spends less time in the box than these Predators. Nashville plays a strong, disciplined and aggressive style and they’re also getting tremendous goaltending. At home, the Preds have won seven of 10 games and right now they’re on a serious roll. Meanwhile, the Red Wings will play its third game in four days against this extremely tough team. Detroit is warm with four wins in its last six but over that stretch they’ve had a few soft games that includes wins over Anaheim and Montreal. The Red Wings last two road games came in Toronto, where they lost 5-1 and in Montreal where they needed OT to win 3-2. Now Detroit will take a huge step up in class minus Niklas Kronwall among others, thus, this has to be considered an underlay. Play: Nashville –1.06 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Milwaukee +9½ over SAN ANTONIO
Man, this line seems rather high when you consider that the Bucks are playing tremendous basketball with Brandon Jennings become front page news in every sports section in the land. The kid has been unstoppable and has led the Bucks to three straight wins, seven wins in its last eight games and an overall record of 8-3. The Spurs are just 5-6 with losses in three of its last four and its only won over that stretch coming against the Wizards. In three meeting last year between these two the Bucks won twice and lost the other by a single basket and this year the Bucks are so much better and confident and the Spurs are worse. Perhaps the general consensus is that the Bucks are just an aberration and they’ll come back down to earth at some point. Perhaps this is the sucker bet of the night. After all, if the Bulls are getting 8 in Portland how can one justify the Bucks getting 9½ in San Antonio minus Ginobili? In any case, if it is the sucket bet of the night shame on me. However, it’s also quite possible that the Spurs are just way overvalued in this one based on each teams past and I’ll gladly go with that. Play: Milwaukee +9½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Karl Garrett
Tennessee at HOUSTON
G-Man expecting some offense this Monday night after a pair of Monday night UNDERS the last 2 weeks.
Still, the OVER has come through in 8 of the 11 Monday night games this year, and tonight we have a pair of teams that can move the sticks.
The first meeting between the teams ended in a 34-31 Houston win, as the teams easily climbed OVER the total to make it 6 of the last 7 in the series landing UP.
5 of the last 6 series meetings at Reliant Stadium have also climbed OVER the posted price,
You need more convincing?
Tennessee comes into this game having played OVER in their last pair, and 3 of their last 4.
Hard to imagine an UNDER based on the trends listed above.
OVER the total we go!
5♦ OVER