Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, November 24

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Alabama vs. Iowa State
The Cyclones take on an Alabama team that is coming off an 81-67 win over Southern Miss and is 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 games following a SU victory in their previous game. Iowa State is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Cyclones favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-6).

Game 715-716: Santa Clara at Michigan State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 57.438; Michigan State 74.753
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 15
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-15)

Game 717-718: Florida International at Georgia Southern (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 47.475; Georgia Southern 53.354
Dunkel Line: Georgia Southern by 6
Vegas Line: Georgia Southern by 4
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Southern (-4)

Game 719-720: Pepperdine at Iowa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pepperdine 56.552; Iowa 68.803
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 12
Vegas Line: Iowa by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pepperdine (+14 1/2)

Game 721-722: Brown at Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brown 51.460; Illinois 64.722
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Brown (+19 1/2)

Game 723-724: Western Michigan at San Diego (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 55.210; San Diego 59.636
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-3)

Game 725-726: WI-Green Bay vs. East Carolina (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 58.189; East Carolina 46.669
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 9
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-9)

Game 727-728: Fresno State vs. Evansville (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 50.192; Evansville 60.183
Dunkel Line: Evansville by 10
Vegas Line: Evansville by 7
Dunkel Pick: Evansville (-7)

Game 729-730: Marist at Florida Gulf Coast (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 49.155; Florida Gulf Coast 61.252
Dunkel Line: Florida Gulf Coast by 12
Vegas Line: Florida Gulf Coast by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Gulf Coast (-9 1/2)

Game 731-732: San Francisco vs. Hawaii (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 63.813; Hawaii 55.159
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-6 1/2)

Game 733-734: Weber State vs. Nevada (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 52.257; Nevada 57.366
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 5
Vegas Line: Nevada by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-1 1/2)

Game 735-736: Clemson vs. LSU (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 61.335; LSU 61.465
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Clemson by 1
Dunkel Pick: LSU (+1)

Game 737-738: Gardner-Webb vs. Old Dominion (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Gardner-Webb 53.446; Old Dominion 54.572
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 1
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 4
Dunkel Pick: Gardner-Webb (+4)

Game 739-740: Seton Hall vs. Illinois State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seton Hall 65.967; Illinois State 60.257
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 3
Dunkel Pick: Seton Hall (-3)

Game 741-742: Purdue vs. Kansas State (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 63.530; Kansas State 60.121
Dunkel Line Purdue by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Purdue by 2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-2)

Game 743-744: Missouri vs. Arizona (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 59.350; Arizona 75.663
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona by 14
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-14)

Game 747-748: BYU vs. San Diego State (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 63.220; San Diego State 64.343
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 1
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BYU (+3 1/2)

Game 751-752: UL-Lafayette vs. WI-Milwaukee (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 54.313; WI-Milwaukee 52.933
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (+3 1/2)

Game 753-754: Oklahoma State vs. Oregon State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 68.470; Oregon State 58.741
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 13
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+13)

Game 755-756: Tulsa vs. Auburn (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 61.142; Auburn 61.392
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (+4 1/2)

Game 757-758: MD-Eastern Shore vs. Detroit (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: MD-Eastern Shore 40.011; Detroit 56.367
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-14 1/2)

Game 759-760: Bucknell vs. Toledo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bucknell 53.702; Toledo 68.860
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 15
Vegas Line: Toledo by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (-10 1/2)

Game 761-762: Chicago State vs. Georgia State (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago State 47.348; Georgia State 56.467
Dunkel Line: Georgia State by 9
Vegas Line: Georgia State by 17
Dunkel Pick: Chicago State (+17)

Game 763-764: Western Carolina at Oakland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 49.905; Oakland 54.071
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 4
Vegas Line: Oakland by 6
Dunkel Pick: Western Carolina (+6)

Game 765-766: Arizona State vs. Maryland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 63.194; Maryland 71.176
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 8
Vegas Line: Maryland by 6
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-6)

Game 767-768: Alabama vs. Iowa State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 64.286; Iowa State 73.060
Dunkel Line: Iowa State by 9
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (-6)

Game 769-770: VCU vs. Villanova (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: VCU 63.873; Villanova 68.422
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Villanova by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-1 1/2)

Game 771-772: Oregon vs. Michigan (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 63.943; Michigan 71.599
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan by 5
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-5)

Game 773-774:Austin Peay at Indiana State (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Austin Peay 41.602; Indiana State 58.211
Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Indiana State by 13
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (-13)

Game 775-776: Murray State at Xavier (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 60.434; Xavier 72.773
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Xavier by 10
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-10)

Game 777-778: Eastern Washington at Indiana (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 57.539; Indiana 67.649
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 10
Vegas Line: Indiana by 13
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (+13)

Game 779-780: Rider at Kansas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 53.378; Kansas 67.444
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 14
Vegas Line: Kansas by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rider (+17 1/2)

Game 781-782: SIU-Edwardsville at Portland State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SIU-Edwardsville 42.061; Portland State 54.304
Dunkel Line: Portland State by 12
Vegas Line: Portland State by 9
Dunkel Pick: Portland State (-9)

Game 791-792: NJIT at Marquette (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NJIT 40.460; Marquette 63.772
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 23 1/2
Vegas Line: Marquette by 20
Dunkel Pick: Marquette (-20)

Mike O'Connor

Baltimore (+3.5) 27 NEW ORLEANS 25

It appears that the Saints just aren’t the same team this season due nearly exclusively to a defense that has been terrible. New Orleans can’t stop the run or the pass and last week allowed a struggling Cincinnati offense to tear them apart, with big gains on the ground and in the air. The Saints have been very good at home in the recent past but have now lost their last two games and have lost the cloak of invincibility that they had in the dome. In a bad NFC South they are in second place with a 4-6 record (they lose the tie-breaker with Atlanta) and every game is important. Their struggling defense took another hit as well last week as safety Rafael Bush was placed on IR and their depth now is paper thin as top safety Jairus Byrd and Vinnie Sunseri are also on IR. In addition, top cornerback Keenan Lewis has been hobbled and is not the same player. The injuries don’t stop there. On offense, they lost rookie WR Brandin Cooks last week as he was placed on IR and as a result the Saints will lack real explosive ability without his speed.

On the other side, the Ravens are feeling refocused and refreshed coming out of their bye week and have gotten a bit healthier with the extra time to recover. Since taking over as head coach of the Ravens in 2008, John Harbaugh has been tough to beat coming off the bye with a 6-2 record. They’ll be plenty motivated and excited to play in primetime on Monday night football and needing a win to keep pace in the highly competitive AFC North race. Baltimore is a better team overall and should be able to both run and pass effectively in this game while I expect the Saints will have trouble scoring points on a very good Ravens defense. An area of concern is the Ravens pass defense which has been shaken up after the loss of top cornerback Jimmy Smith and some moving pieces in the secondary, but the Ravens have a talented front seven that should be able to provide a pass rush to compensate for those shortcomings. My model only predicts a 1.2 point Saints win and there are situations going both ways in this one (a 74-36-3 Monday night situation that plays on the Saints and a 139-68-7 statistical match up situation that plays on the Ravens). I like the Ravens.

NY Jets (+2.5) 20 BUFFALO 19

With massive amounts of snow in the Buffalo region, this game has been rescheduled to Monday night and will now be played at Ford Field in Detroit. It appears that the Jets are in a good spot here as the Bills have been distracted by the weather and have had an unusual schedule this week where they haven’t been able to practice. Many of the coaches were apparently able to get to the facility on Monday or Tuesday and have slept there since, preparing for the Jets. They were able to send out film and game plans to the players but it isn’t the same as getting out onto the practice field and going through the motions. Meanwhile, the Jets are coming off their bye and a home win against the Steelers the week prior. They have enjoyed a normal practice week and the offense is excited about having the opportunity to play indoors on a fast track.

Since making the switch to Mike Vick, the Jets offense has been better and should improve with the extra time to acclimate Vick into the starting role. Neither team will have much success running the ball as they each have below average rush offenses and will be facing above average rush defenses. After giving a spark to the Bills offense initially, quarterback Kyle Orton has regressed the past two weeks in losses to the Chiefs and the Dolphins but will have his opportunities against a Jets pass defense that is below average. I don’t have any situations in play in this game and my model, adjusted for the site change, favors Buffalo by 2.3 points. With the weather issue being a factor for the Bills while the Jets are healthy and confident coming off their break, I like the Jets.

Randall the Handle

BEST BET

Ravens (6-4) at Saints (4-6)

We’re not ready to write off the Saints just yet. Yes, New Orleans has lost consecutive home games, but that doesn’t wipe out their 18-3-1 mark against the spread in its past 22 here played with coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees teaming up. That duo has demonstrated the fortitude to overcome a loss as they have posted a 21-6 ATS mark after a defeat, including a 16-3 ATS record on this field. The Saints have been their own worst enemies and Brees has made uncharacteristic boo boos that have cost his side. However, Brees and his troops can move the ball. They lead the league in first downs and have punted the fewest times. The Ravens are not built to stop this type of team. The loss of DB Jimmy Smith cannot be overstated as Smith was by their top guy in the secondary and his absence has players being shifted into unfamiliar positions. Baltimore is ranked 21st in pass defence while New Orleans’ passing offence is ranked third-best. The Ravens won’t be facing a rookie QB at home like they did against the Titans in Baltimore’s last game. TAKING: SAINTS -3

THE REST

Jets (2-8) at Bills (5-5)

After a 5-3 record quickly became 5-5, Buffalo’s season is slipping away quicker than a toboggan on an icy hill. The defence has held up its end of the bargain, but the same can’t be said for an anemic offence that has surpassed 17 points only twice in its past eight games. However, the Jets are unreliable and have not won a road game this season. Buffalo was aided by a bunch of Geno Smith gaffes in the first meeting, paving the way for a 43-23 Bills win. While Michael Vick is an improvement, he’s still Michael Vick. Buffalo’s pass rush and strong “D” should fluster the aging QB. This game has been moved out of Buffalo because of the massive snowfall that has beset the city. TAKING: BILLS -4

Jim Feist

Knicks at Rockets
Pick: Under

The Knicks have finally started to play a bit better. There were high hopes in the Big Apple for this club this year and people were worried when the team started 2-6. They haven't exactly been great since, but are 3-4 the last seven. However, bettors are still not doing well with the Knicks, covering just three of 14 games this season. Tonight, I'm looking at the UNDER in this contest. The Knicks have been a better over team than under, but tonight they play a pretty good defensive team in Houston. The Rockets have been winning this season, 10-3 S/U, thanks to a defense that has allowed over 100 points just twice in 13 games. That has translated to the total as the Rockets are 2-11 O/U this season (0-6 O/U at home). The Rockets have been a very goo defensive efficient team, allowing a 96.9 at home (league avg is 107.3). Moreover, the Rockets haven't been a very good offensive efficient team with just a 96.9 rating at home. Tonight, the Rockets could be without one of their best scorers in center Dwight Howard, who is questionable. Howard is average just over 18 points per game this season. The last 11 times these teams have met the game has gone under eight times. I look for that again here with a good under club in Houston who should control this tempo.

Sam Martin

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Prediction: New York Jets

Tough week for the Bills, who because of the massive snow storm had to move their home game to Detroit. The bigger problem for Buffalo isn't the game location but the fact that they have not had a normal week of practice, and we don't believe they'll be properly prepared for this game against the Jets. We'll back New York to win outright on Monday night in a low-scoring, defensive battle.

Jets come off they bye wee following a morale-boosting win against Pittsburgh - a victory that ended an extended eight-game losing streak. Normally we would look to fade a team in an obvious letdown spot, but the bye week should have nullified that motivational disadvantage and they can now build off that win. Jets have played a string of games against very good offensive teams, but Buffalo doesn't quality averaging less than 100 yards rushing and 230 yards passing per game. This is the type of foe the Jets can beat, and they won't miss their chance to earn another rare win this Monday!

Scott Spreitzer

LA Clippers -4.5

When the Clippers left California for their current east coast road trip, we stated it would be good for the Clips to get away from home as they look to find a rhythm that has escaped them in the early going. We also felt games against Orlando, Miami, and Charlotte would afford Doc Rivers' troops a chance to garner three victories. So far so good. The Clippers beat the first two teams mentioned before getting knocked around in Memphis on Sunday. Chris Paul played well against the Grizzlies, but the Clippers were pushed around inside and Blake Griffin had a poor night from the field, making just 5-of-17 shots. Charlotte doesn't have the "goods" to hang with Griffin or DeAndre Jordan for that matter and I expect a refocused effort from the visitors from the west coast. While the Hornets have dropped five straight games (0-3-2 ATS), the Clippers have yet to drop two straight games this season. We believe they'll rebound with a win on Monday. I'm recommending a play on the Clippers minus the points.

Rob Vinciletti

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -12

The Blazers are rolling and have won 6 straight. They are 8-2 ats this month and 5-0 ats vs an opponent who allows 99 or more points per game. The Sixers have dropped 40 of 65 to the spread when the total is 200 to 205 and have dropped 5 of 7 to the spread vs winning teams. Last season the Blazers were 34 point winners here. The winning team in this series has covered 29 of 20 times. Look for a solid Blazer team to lay it on the Sixers here tonight.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Steve Janus

Toronto Raptors -5

The Raptors are showing some solid value here as a mere 5-point home favorite. Toronto has one of the top home records in the league at 8-1 (6-3 ATS) with their only loss coming against the Bulls. They are outscoring opponents 106.7 to 92.2 at Air Canada Centre and I look for them to win here by 6+ rather easily. Phoenix is getting a little too much respect for a 4-game road winning streak, as it's come against the likes of the Celtics, Pistons, 76ers and Pacers. This is the final game of their 6-game road trip. They have already secured a winning record at 4-1 and could have their eyes set on returning home for the holiday.

Ari Atari

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -12

When will the bleeding stop for Philly? Not tonight. The Blazers are too tough on defense and too balanced on offense to hang out in the dumps with the 76ers. The Blazers took care of the Celtics 94-88 and will have to turn around on a back to back for this one. That's the only disadvantage which is offset by a bench that can still cover this spread against the Philly starters.

Every game matters and the coaching staff will make sure the Blazers don't take this game lightly. The last 6 meetings between these 2 teams has seen the line push twice (Blazers covered 3 times and Philly covered 1). An even number spread of 12 allows the likelihood of a push to exist and it could very well happen. I've got this capped with Portland winning by 12+ and I wouldn't recommend you taking it +12.5 or higher.

EZWINNERS

New York Jets +2.5

I love the Jets in this match up against a Bills team whose post season hopes pretty much ended last week with a loss at Miami. Buffalo has had all kinds of distractions with the weather having to move this game to Detroit. The Jets are coming off of a big win in their last game and are still playing hard for head coach Rex Ryan. Michael Vick has provided a spark and has got Percy Harvin involved heavily in the offense. The Bills defense has played well, but they have lost standout corner back Leodis McKelvin for the season due to injury. I like the Jets straight up, take the points.

Baltimore Ravens +3

Playing the Saints at home in primetime used to be a no brainer, but this Saints team has some serious flaws. Quarterback Drew Brees timing is off just a bit with his receivers. Tight end Jimmy Graham has not been healthy and rookie wide receiver Brandon Cooks is now out due to injury. Baltimore runs a similar style defense that the Saints Rob Ryan will put up against them. Coming off of a bye week I expect Joe Flacco and company to have a strong showing. The Saints are just 1-5 against teams that currently have winning records. The Superdome magic is not what it used to be. Take the points.

Kansas State +2.5

Purdue comes into this game at the Maui Invitational with a 3-0 record, but this will be there first true test of the season after feasting on Samford, IUPUI and Grambling State. Purdue is a very young team that is projected to be a bottom feeder in the Big Ten this season. Kansas State is 2-1 and coming off of a loss against an under rated Long Beach State team. Two of K-States top players Marcus Foster and Justin Edwards were a combined 2-23 from the field against Long Beach State. I expect them to wake up in this one and spark K-State to the win. The will be this young Boilermakers teams first game away from home and should not be favored here. Take the points.

Larry Ness

Los Angeles Clippers at Charlotte Hornets
Pick: Los Angeles Clippers

The LA Clippers opened the season with SEVEN consecutive ATS losses (4-3 SU), before winning and covering a week ago Saturday at home vs the Suns (120-107). However, the Clipps got thumped by the visiting Bulls last Monday night, falling to 5-4 SU but a money-burning 1-8 ATS. LA hit the road this past Wednesday, for a seven-game road trip and the team enjoyed its first two stops, winning in Orlando by 24 and Miami by 17. LA’s current road trip doesn’t end until after Thanksgiving, with the final stop being a Nov 29 date in Salt Lake City. Of the seven stops along the way, NONE figured to be tougher than the team’s visit to Memphis last night.

I made a 10* play on the Grizzlies, noting that the Clippers were 3-1 SU on the road so far averaging 111.5 PPG but faced a Memphis team which was allowing just 92.5 PPG on the season. These two teams are very familiar adversaries, having met in the 2011-12 and 2012-13 playoffs, plus they don't much like each other. Center Marc Gasol was the 2012-13 Defensive Player of the Year and his presence in the paint tended to make a big difference in this series. The Grizzlies had won the last SIX meetings in which he been healthy (including the playoffs), with Gasol averaging 18.5 points.

Well, I was sure “on the money” with that call, as Memphis won 107-91 with Gasol going for 30 points (added 12 rebounds). Memphis held the Clippers to just 91 points.on 41.6% shooting plus outrebounded them by a 52-32 margin. Blake Griffin turned in his worst scoring effort of the season, netting just 12 points on 5 of 17 shooting. The Clipps have no time to cry over spilled milk though, as it’s off to Charlotte, tonight. The good news is, Griffin averages more points in the second half of back-to-back games than any player, averaging 32.0 points on 62.9 percent shooting on the second half of back-to-backs, helping Los Angeles go 3-0 in those contests. PG Chris Paul is averaging 17.0 points and a league-best 11.3 assists in second halves of back-to-backs. "We really have to come out executing and aggressive and hit first," said Paul, who led the Clippers with 22 points, five assists and four steals in the Memphis loss. "We really have to do a better job of doing it consistently." He is looking for the Clippers to start with greater urgency after they fell behind by 13 at halftime Sunday.

Urgency only begins to describe the predicament Charlotte (4-10) finds itself in. The Hornets are on the verge of their first six-game slide since a 10-game streak Feb 20-Mar 9, 2013. The Hornets rallied from a nine-point halftime deficit Sunday to go ahead but in the end fell 94-93 at Miami. Al Jefferson posted his second straight double-double with 22 points and 12 rebounds and Lance Stephenson and Kemba Walker combined for 33 points. That loss came two nights after blowing a 23-point lead in a loss to Orlando. "The stretch of games we have played has definitely taken their toll on our confidence," Hornets coach Steve Clifford told reporters after his team lost its fifth straight game. "When things are going against us, it's the body language, heads are down, there's doubt and we're a better team than that," Clifford said. "I think you go through stretches like that sometimes in this league, unfortunately for us it's early."

Charlotte remains without starting forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who will miss his seventh straight game with a stress reaction in his right foot. He’s a terrific defensive player and his absence matter. Paul has amassed 56 points and 28 assists in winning his last three games in his home state of North Carolina and the Clippers have taken six of the last seven meetings with Charlotte. Laying the points is the way to go.

Dave Price

Charlotte Hornets +5.5

This is a tough spot for the Clippers playing their second road game in as many days. The Clippers are just 3-9 ATS on the season and 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing without a day of rest. LA is coming off a 107-91 loss in Memphis so it should be noted that it is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games following a loss and 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more. The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400 while the Hornets are on a 15-2 ATS run versus teams with a win percentage of .510 to .600. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Jimmy Boyd

Jets/Bills Over 42

What was originally scheduled to be a home game for the Bills on Sunday, will now be played at Detroit's Ford Field tonight. I believe this has created some exceptional value on the OVER, as we are to have ideal conditions inside the Dome. Both of these teams have some fast players who should be able to take advantage of the fast playing surface at Ford Field, which should lead to a bunch of big plays and quick scores.

It's also worth noting that these two teams have a history of going over the total. They combined for 66 points at New York back in Week 8 with a total set of just 40 points. In the last 9 meetings between these two teams, 7 have gone OVER the total, with the fewest combined points in all 9 games being 37.

The situation also presents a great possibility for a high-scoring game. Buffalo has barely been able to get any practice time in because of that huge snow storm and neither squad will be benefiting from the emotional lift of the home fans. I believe this weird scenario is going to take away from the defensive intensity of both squads.

Adding to all of this is a great system. The OVER is 106-66 over the last 10 seasons in games with a total set between 35.5 to 42 points in a matchup of two average defensive teams (allowing 295 to 335 yards/game) at least 9 games into the season. That's a 62% system backing this one to finish above the mark.

Joe Gavazzi

LA Clippers -5

If the playoffs were to begin tomorrow, neither of these teams would qualify for the post-season party. For the Clippers, you can blame their opening week funk in which they began the season on a 1-6 ATS slide. The fortunes for LAC have turned around more recently! For Charlotte, the opposite has been true. A 4-2 SU start has disintegrated quickly.

At 7-5 SU, there is still plenty of upside for the Clippers this season. A team that went 63-32 SU last year, amidst late season turmoil regarding ownership, was expected to bounceback strong this season. The talent is there with the likes of PG Paul and big man Griffin to challenge every team in the West. Such was not the case last night, when Memphis, their playoff adversary from the previous 2 years, dominated them 107-91. Key issue for the Clippers, as it has been all season, was their work on the boards. Last night, they were outrebounded by Memphis 52-32. For the season, the Clippers have a -6 net rebound margin, among the worst in the league. But, the Clippers have been resilient this season, turning in a record of 3-1 ATS following a defeat. In addition, this has historically been a strong team in the 2nd of back-to-back games on the road. On November 20th, LAC followed up a 114-90 road win at Orlando with a 110-93 victory at Miami. The Clippers are in the midst of a 7/11 day road trip to end November. More on that later this week … as we will find a great play against spot to profit!

The Hornets have lost their way, as they enter tonight on a 5-game losing streak. After ascending to the .500 mark last year, and projected to be a winning team this season, the Hornets enter on a 5-game losing streak. HC Clifford says their body language and confidence are sending negative signals. It certainly would not have gotten better last night, when the Hornets rallied from being 9 down at the half in Miami, but fell short, 94-93 for their 5th straight loss. Al Jeff went for 25/12, while Lance and Kemba combined for 33. But, it was all for not! Consider it to be no coincidence that glue guy, Michael Kidd Gilchrest, has missed the last 6 contests.

Again this season, the Western Conference is superior to the East. The proof is in the pudding! Consider that all Eastern Conference teams are 85-111 SU. All Western Conference teams are 112-86 SU. Searching for the difference in those records, leads us to the fact that when West plays East, the record is 45-19 SU. A microcosm of that is that the Clippers are on a recent 18-4 SU run vs. the East and have won 6/7 of late vs. Charlotte. The Hornets, conversely, are on a 1-6 SU slide vs. Western Conference opponents. Let's play the Clippers' bounceback, while following the negative momentum of the home team, all backed by the strong West to East dichotomy.