Wunderdog
New York @ Houston
Pick: New York +6.5
New York heads to Houston on a high note, an 8-point win over Philly. They played some defense, too, allowing 83 points, just 13 in the first quarter. And the offense clicked as Carmelo Anthony scored 25 points, Amare Stoudemire added 16 points and 11 rebounds. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS against a team with a winning percentage above .600, as well as 6-0 ATS versus the NBA Southwest Division. Houston only has three losses, but two of them have been at home. Star center Dwight Howard is banged up and out indefinitely. Houston is on a 1-4 ATS run, overvalued after that sizzling start, and 0-4 ATS playing on one days rest. Play the New York Knicks.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
NY Jets / Buffalo Under 42: Both offenses are not great and both have had their routines upset with the snowstorm in Buffalo. The Bills have missed allot of practice time and even had trouble getting out of Buffalo. The Jets offense has just been horrible this year , averaging just 17.4 ppg and I don't see them getting much going vs this tough Buffalo defense that has allowed just 20.4 ppg on the year. This is a very tough Buffalo defense that is facing a very poor jet offense. For the Bills their offense is not all that good either as they come in averaging just 20 ppg and they have scored 17 or less in 6 of their last 8 games. The Bills did score 43 points on the Jets a few weeks back, but on just 280 yards of offense, as Jet miscues really helped the Bills in that one. The Jets have allowed 26.5 ppg on the year, but they are also 7th in the league in yards allowed, so this is not a bad defense and if their offense doesn't give the Bills short field then they will not give up a tone of points here. This should be a game played in the lower 30s.
SPORTS WAGERS
NEW ORLEANS -3 over Baltimore
The Ravens are 6-4 and in last place in the AFC North but a win here and they're tied with the other three teams in the division with seven wins. In other words, this division is completely up for grabs but we’re not convinced that Baltimore has what it takes to win it. We also don’t like teams coming off the bye. During the bye week, the collective bargaining agreement says that players must have four consecutive days off and most coaches choose to give them off Thursday through Sunday. That takes them completely out of their routine and so does returning to practice on Monday. We often see teams’ very flat coming off the bye, especially in the first half. Assuming the Ravens aren’t flat, we still don’t like them. Baltimore’s schedule has been about as easy as it gets. Their toughest opponent this year has been Cincinnati and they’ve lost twice to them. Baltimore’s first three wins came against Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Carolina. They beat Pittsburgh only because the Steelers turned the ball over twice inside Baltimore’s 20 and once inside their own 10. In the rematch, Pittsburgh destroyed the Ravens, 43-23. Baltimore’s victory over Cleveland came on the on game’s final play. The Ravens last three wins occurred against Tampa Bay, Atlanta and Tennessee and the win against Tennessee wasn’t pretty. The Ravens four losses occurred against Cincinnati twice, Indy and Pittsburgh. Baltimore’s two road wins came against Cleveland by 2 and in Tampa Bay way back in Week 6. Since the start of the 2013 season, Joe Flacco's passer rating on the road is 73.1, the fifth worst in the NFL over that span. Only Jason Campbell, Kirk Cousins, EJ Manuel and Geno Smith have been worse. That isn't exactly elite company. The Ravens do not have a signature win this year. They have beaten up on cupcakes and have lost to every team above .500 that they’ve played. They are not battle tested enough or talented enough to hand the Saints their third straight loss at the Superdome.
By contrast, the Saints have played Dallas, Detroit, Green Bay, San Fran and Cincinnati among others. They whacked the Packers in a prime time game back in Week 8, 44-23. The Saints have won 14 straight prime-time games at home, including the playoffs, by nearly 20 points per game. They don't just win them. They routinely score in the 40s and win by 20 points. The crowd is even more frenzied from the start in night games with the Dome being one of the louder venues in the league. The conditions obviously favor New Orleans' offense (fast track, no weather, no crowd noise). It was really stunning to see how lifeless both the team and the fans were last week against the Bengals. The Saints have lost two straight home games now after having won 11 straight before that and their 10 points against Cincinnati was the lowest total at home since 2006. This is the bounce back week for the Saints.
SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT -½ +109 over OTTAWA
Regulation only. No question the Senators have been a pesky bunch that continue to overachieve but at some point they are going to hit the skids and that point will come when Craig Anderson isn’t standing on his head every game. Analytics say these Senators are in trouble. They allow the second most shots on net in the league, ahead of only the Sabres. When they defeated the Predators two games ago, they were outshot 35-19 and spent just 17% of the game in the Predators end. That has been a reoccurring theme this entire year for the Senators and the amazing thing is that they have an almost identical record as the Wings. Ottawa is 9-10 while Detroit is 10-10 but there is nothing identical about these two clubs.
Detroit’s 10-10 record is a little bit mind-boggling because they are so much better than that. One could attribute it to the Red Wings tough schedule thus far, as they have played the 6th toughest schedule in the league while Ottawa’s strength of schedule ranks 17th. That aside, Detroit is ranked highly in every important advance stat category. In shot differential per game, the Red Wings rank 6th. In shots allowed per game, the Red Wings rank third. In time of possession in the opponents end, Detroit ranks 7th while Ottawa ranks 29th. The Red Wings are loaded with talent up front and their defense is perhaps the most underrated in the league. The Red Wings are not a .500 club. They’re much better than that and it’s only a matter of time before they string together a serious run to send them up the standings, where they belong. Detroit will very likely dominate this game and the only thing that will prevent them from a regulation win is a huge game from Craig Anderson. Counting on Anderson every game is a fundamental leak that will eventually catch up to the Sens.
Tony Stoffo
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: New York Jets +3
Strong reverse money action play setting up here as the public all on the Bills here with 70% of all bets placed - however the odds makers have been something here that they definitely don't want to do and that's coming off the magic number of 3 - but they had to as the sharps came in heavy on the Jets here overwhelming all the public action. So let's follow this move and release a play on New York here this evening.
Jack Jones
New York Jets +3
Due to massive amounts of snow in Buffalo this week, the Buffalo Bills won’t be able to play at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The NFL has decided to move their game against the New York Jets to Ford Field in Detroit at the home of the Lions on Monday, November 24th.
Buffalo (5-5) suffered its second straight defeat with a 9-22 road loss at Miami last Thursday. New York (2-8) put an end to its eight-game losing streak with a 20-13 home win over Pittsburgh last time out on November 9th.
This line is very interesting to me. The Bills were going to be 4.5-point home favorites over the Jets had this game been played in Buffalo. When you factor in three points for home-field advantage, that means oddsmakers believe the Bills would be a 1.5-point favorite on a neutral field. This is essentially a neutral field in Detroit, so the Bills should only be 1.5-point favorites. I believe we are getting some value in backing the Jets as 3-point underdogs in this one.
I am also not so sure that the Bills are the better team. The Bills are probably about right where they should be at 5-5. They are dead even in yardage differential with their opponents, which is a number that would resemble a .500 team. They have a poor offense that ranks 25th in the league at 321.6 yards per game, and a solid defense that ranks 6th at 321.6 yards per game allowed.
The Jets, meanwhile, are much better than their 2-8 record would indicate. They are only getting outgained by 4.4 yards per game on the season, which is a number that would also resemble a .500 team. They rank 26th in total offense at 319.4 yards per game, and 7th in total defense at 323.7 yards per game. They have simply been on the wrong end of the turnover battle all season prior to their +4 performance against the Steelers last time out.
Winning the turnover battle helped the Jets to an impressive 20-13 home win over the Steelers. It was a rare occurrence for the Jets, who only forced three turnovers through their first nine games of the year. They were simply unlucky up to that point, and should receive much better fortune in the second half in this department, which started with that game against Pittsburgh.
The Jets come into this game on two weeks’ rest having last played on November 9th. They certainly needed this break as they were probably pretty fatigued having to play 10 straight weeks to open the season. I believe they will come back rejuvenated, especially since they beat the Steelers prior to their bye, which would have made these two weeks off much more enjoyable and productive.
I know that the Bills beat the Jets 43-23 in their first meeting this season, but that was a very misleading final score. The Jets actually outgained the Bills 312-280 for the game, or by 32 total yards. The Bills simply took advantage of six turnovers by the Jets in the win. They scored 43 points on 280 total yards, which is unheard of. Now, the Jets will be wanting revenge in the rematch on Monday.
Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) – revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1993. The Jets are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points. New York is 47-28 ATS in its last 75 road games versus division opponents.
Red Dog Sports
Philadelphia Flyers vs. NY Islanders
Play: Philadelphia Flyers +145
The Islanders are hot and off a sweep of the Pittsburgh Penguins. They played a home and home series with Tampa Bay and split and then played home and home with one of the best teams in hockey and won both so I expect a possible letdown tonight. Small play on the underdog that has plenty of value.
Mike Lundin
Philadelphia Flyers vs. NY Islanders
Play: NY Islanders -154
The Islanders have won eight of their last nine and managed to pick up both wins in a back to back series against the hot Pittsburgh Penguins Friday-Saturday. They'll host a Flyers team that snapped a four game losing skid as they defeated the Blue Jackets two days ago but I fear the visitors will struggle to follow that up with another win.
The Flyers have found themselves on the losing side in the majority of their games on the road winning only two of their eight contests away from home, while the Islanders have the exact opposite record home at Nassau Coliseum. Look for Jaroslav Halak to stay hot as he has won six straight starts overall behind a 1.31 goals-against average and two shutouts. Bad news for Philly as they've not been able to find the net regularly recently getting outscored 17-10 over their last five games. Ron Hextall's team is struggling on the penalty kill big time giving up a goal on six of its last 15 penalties and is sitting at the bottom of the table allowing its opponents to convert on their power play 71.9% of the times for the season.
Nick Parsons
NY Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: NY Jets +2½
It has been a tough week for the Buffalo Bills. They massive snow storm in Buffalo has the caused the loss of practice but more importantly they game has been moved to Detroit. They have not had the proper time to practice to prepare for Michael Vick and the New York Jets.
The Jets are coming off a bye week following a surprising win over the red hot Pittsburgh Steelers. That win snapped an eight game losing streak by the Jets.
The Bills haven’t been a good team offensively this year. They are averaging less than 100 yards rushing and 230 yards passing per game. This should be a game the Jets win easily.
Harry Bondi
NY JETS (+3) over Buffalo
This game opened last week with the Bills as a 3-point home favorite and since then it has been moved to a neutral site and the line still hasn't budged. So, we'll gladly take the gift points here against a Buffalo team that has been snowed in for the last week while the revenge-minded Jets come in off a bye week following their best performance of the season when they upset the Steelers. Buffalo won the first meeting 43-23, but that was a misleading final score. The Jets actually outgained the Bills in the game, limiting Buffalo to 67 rushing yards on 32 attempts, but turned the ball over six times. Since that game, Michael Vick has replaced Geno Smith as the Jets QB and while he is far from the Michael Vick of old, he takes much better care of the ball and benefited from last week's bye to get more comfortable with the offense.
OC Dooley
Arizona State +4.5
Throughout the country the early college basketball schedule is littered with neutral-court matchups such as this (CBE Classic tournament). Tonight marks the first time Arizona State has faced Maryland in exactly TWENTY years any my research indicates we have a high percentage underdog. In the past three years when off a double-digit margin of victory in front of the home fans Arizona State has COVERED SEVEN IN A ROW when taking the court in a ROAD affair. After being cast as a home favorite in three consecutive contests Arizona State has successfully COVERED the spread at a 14-5 long term clip in the ensuing contest. Tonight marks just the second “lined” affair for Maryland (0-1 against the spread) and have had a creampuff schedule that has featured the likes of Wagner and Central Connecticut State
Andre Gomes
Cleveland Cavaliers -10.5
Orlando is a good match up for Cleveland to bounce back in here. It's a fact that Vucevic will have the edge over Cleveland's poor interior defense, however the Magic lack a single backcourt player who is skilled enough to expose Cleveland's problems on stopping the opposing penetrations into the basket.
On the other hand, Orlando's defense is quite weak and it's very easy to score against them. Harris will be out and so, Green will once again get big minutes and he's a scrub who shouldn't start in a NBA team. This situation makes it much harder for Orlando to defend Lebron, as they play a lot of time with Green, Oladipo and Fournier at the same time, with none of them being a SF and therefore undersized to defend Lebron. I expect Cleveland to finally have an easy win and so, I'll take them in here.
Vegas Butcher
Los Angeles Clippers -4.5
Both teams are on a b2b here but while Clippers were getting blown out @ Memphis, Hornets were involved in a very close game. It was actually their 3rd straight close game as they lost by 2 @ IND, by 5 to ORL, and by 1 @ MIA yesterday. If the Hornets are struggling against these types of squads, what is going to happen against a Clippers team coming off a loss? LA has not had more than 1 loss in a row this year, as they are 4-0 following a loss on the season. Matt Barnes is out but he’s a mediocre player this year and his loss is insignificant. Clippers have much better depth than Charlotte, and that should be a factor in today’s game. I expect a better team to win this one and with a short spread, I don’t see that being a factor in tonight’s game.