Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday November, 26

DAVID BANKS

Panthers / Eagles Over 40.5

My how the mighty have fallen, as a money-burning Philadelphia Eagles team (3-7, 1-8-1 ATS) picked by many to go to the Super Bowl before this season started now turns up as a small home underdog to the Carolina Panthers (2-8, 4-6 ATS) on Monday night. The Eagles easily have the worst ATS record in all of football and they will now be without both quarterback Michael Vick and running back LeSean McCoy for this contest as they are both out with concussions. The Panthers may have just two wins, but at least they have continued to play hard, which cannot be said about Philadelphia, and Carolina has played its best football this year on the road.

Even before the big injuries to Vick and McCoy, the Eagles were probably the most overrated team in football, as this is a team that is incredibly only four points away from being 0-10 right now! They have lost six straight games since a 19-17 win over the New York Giants in Week 4 and it now looks like Coach Andy Reid's long tenure in Philadelphia is over as he will most likely be fired after the season. The Eagles are apparently very well aware that they are playing for a lame duck coach as they have given virtually zero effort on the field in recent weeks. Their most recent debacle was a 31-6 beatdown absorbed at Washington last week where the offense produced a measly 257 total yards and the defense allowed Robert Griffin III to achieve a perfect QB Rating by completing 14-of-15 passes for 200 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions, and that was with the Redskins reining him in with a huge lead! If the defense has given up, then the Eagles have very little hope of winning games with Nick Foles and Bryce Brown filling in for Vick and McCoy respectively on a team that ranks second to last in the NFL in scoring offense at 16.2 points per game, ahead of only the Kansas City Chiefs.

Now the Panthers may be a disappointing 2-8, but six of their eight losses this year have been by six points or less, with the most recent one coming in overtime last week 27-21 to the red-hot Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Furthermore, that was their second loss by six points to Tampa Bay this year and the other four close losses came vs. the Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys, so this team would have a much better record if the schedule was a bit easier. Moreover, Carolina is 3-1 ATS on the road this year where it has its close calls vs. the Falcons and Bears, as well as its second win of the year at Washington the last time the Panthers hit the road. They are now facing a weak opponent for a change and the Carolina defense, which has played very well in recent weeks, should have little trouble controlling this Philadelphia offense.

Interestingly, the Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a road favorite. Carolina is also 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. teams with losing home records. The Eagles are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss.

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Denver at UtahFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Utah -3.5 FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Utah Jazz are not off to the type of start they would like as they host Denver as a 7-7 team. The good news is nine of those 14 games have come on the road, while the Jazz have one of the top homecourt advantages in the NBA at 5-0 to start the season this year. The Jazz have been 184-59 here in their last 243 home games, so getting them as a short favorite is certainly appealing. The Nuggets have always been a disappointing road team and over their last 700+ road games this franchise has failed on the road to the tune of a 230-483 mark, winning less than one of every three. They also have a losing record again this season so far. The favorite has dominated this series as each team excels at home and has trouble on the road, leaving the favorite at 33-16-2 ATS in the last 51 meetings. Play on Utah.

Ben Burns
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San Antonio vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
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The Wizards are 0-11. Not many are going to want to back them against the mighty Spurs. Beating the NBA pointspread requires backing bad teams in good spots though. At least, the way I do it. In this case, the Wizards have a significant scheduling advantage. In fact, I won't be even shocked if they step up and win outright.
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While Washington had yesterday off, the Spurs were involved in an early afternoon game up in Canada. That proved to be a little more difficult than they likely bargained for, as the Raptors took them all the way to double-overtime.
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While the Spurs have admittedly fared well, when playing the second of back to back games in recent seasons (they're 29-13 SU and 25-15-2 ATS their L42 in that situation) those games aren't usually coming after such a hard fought OT game.
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Tony Parker acknowledged: "...We had to work for this one."
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Speaking of Parker, he was on the floor for more than 46 minutes yesterday, one of three Spurs to top the 40 minute mark. Green played more than 48 minutes while Duncan saw more than 41 minutes of action.
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The Wizards have been "so close" recently, as each of their last five losses has come by seven or fewer points. In fact, their last two defeats (at Atlanta and vs. Charlotte) came by only three points.
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The fact that the Wizards were favored in the loss vs. the Bobcats is noteworthy, as they're 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they were off an "upset" loss. Consider "plugging your nose" and taking the points.

Matt Fargo
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New York vs. Brooklyn
Pick: Brooklyn
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This is the makeup game from opening night that was postponed due to the storm in New York City. The makeup date catches both teams coming off games on Sunday with the Knicks and Nets winning. New York stopped a two-game slide with a win against Detroit as it hammered the Pistons by 21 points. This came after a loss at Dallas and a blowout loss at Houston but now the Knicks are back on the road where they have lost three of their last four on the highway. Brooklyn meanwhile is also coming off a home rout as it made it two straight wins at home following a two-game skid on the road. The Nets are now 6-1 at home and yet are home underdogs tonight as the publicly wagered Knicks are seeing a majority of the action. This is the first meeting since the Nets moved to Brooklyn and they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder as they do not want to play second fiddle in the city and win will actually tie them for first place in the Atlantic Division. The Knicks are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games after leading their previous game by 20 or more points at halftime while the Nets are 4-0-2 ATS in their last six games following a win. Brooklyn also falls into a great situation where we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are allowing between 43.5 and 45.5 percent shooting going up against teams allowing between 45.5 and 47.5 shooting, after three straight games allowing 47 percent shooting or higher. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) since 1996.

Teddy Covers
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Cleveland vs. Memphis
Pick: Cleveland
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This is the epitome of a ‘flat spot’ for the Memphis Grizzlies. Memphis has been as good as any team in the NBA through the first four weeks of the season. Lionel Hollins’ squad enters tonight’s game with a 9-2 SU, 9-2 ATS mark. They’re coming off a very satisfying win over the Lakers, after having already knocked off the likes of New York, Oklahoma City and Miami in the last two weeks.
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The Grizzlies have been off for a couple of days, and now face the Cavs, Raptors and Pistons in their next three ballgames, all at home; teams with a combined 9-32 SU record this year – teams the Grizzlies know full well that they can beat. It sets up for a lethargic performance for a team that isn’t used to this pointspread range – they haven’t been favored by more than seven points in any previous game this season and only two of their nine wins have come by more than ten points. Last year in this role, the Grizzlies stumbled repeatedly; just 2-9 ATS in their eleven tries as favorites of -9 or higher.
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The Cavs have lost their go-to guy during crunch time, point guard Kyrie Irving, to a broken finger, out for at least another few weeks. In his absence, the Cavs have gone 3-1 ATS, the lone pointspread defeat coming as 6.5 point underdogs against Philly when they lost by seven. Their bench has stepped up; big man Anderson Varejao continues to play like a man possessed on a nightly basis, and Jeremy Pargo has filled in reasonably well for Irving at the point.
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Coming off a tough two point loss at Miami, the Cavs aren’t lacking for confidence right now. They’ve covered as double digit dogs on each of their last two visits to Memphis, losing by eight here last year and by seven the year before. A similar result tonight would be no surprise to this bettor! Take the Cavs.

Sean Murphy
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Cleveland vs. Memphis
Pick: Under
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The Cavs have been involved in back-to-back high-scoring affairs totaling 218 and 212 points. Their lone meeting with the Grizzlies last season reached 210 points. So perhaps it should come as no surprise that we're dealing with a considerably higher total (194.5) than we saw in the two teams' most recent matchup (190.5).
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I'm not sure it's warranted.
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Keep in mind, the Cavs continue to play without their best player, Kyrie Irving. They've managed to hold their own offensively without him, but that can only last for so long. Tonight they'll face a formidable challenge in the form of a Grizzlies defense that has held 10 straight opponents under 100 points, and six of those to 94 points or less.
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Yes, the Cavs have struggled defensively, but it's not as if they're facing an offensive juggernaut here. The Grizzlies have gotten off to a terrific 9-2 start, but they're not a team I expect to see sail over the 100-point mark on a regular basis. Of course, they did score over 100 points in six of their first eight games this season, but have since eased back, putting up 94 points or less in two of their last three contests.
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The Cavs know that their best shot at staying competitive against a vastly superior Grizzlies squad will come by turning this one into a low-scoring slugfest. As we've seen in their last couple of games, both losses, they're not going to win many games when giving up well north of 100 points - at least not without Kyrie Irving in the lineup. The Grizzlies aren't a 'run-and-gun' type of team, and that should be made apparent tonight.

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East Carolina at Georgia State
Prediction: East Carolina
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The simulator shows a high probability that ECU will win this game. ECU is off to a solid 4-0 start and granted, Georgia State, will be their most difficult test yet this season. However, they are playing sound fundamental team hoops rebounding well on the defensive end and taking care of the ball. In each of their games they have had fewer turnovers than their opponents. The same cannot be said for Georgia State as they have been largely inconsistent even against the inferior foes they defeated. One of the dominant reasons for this disparity between the two teams, is the fact that ECU returns four starters from last year?s team while Georgia State has returned just one. Team chemistry and experience is a valuable asset in the first third of the college hoops season and I strongly believe that will play out again in this game. Georgia State is just 3-8 against the money line (-12.5 Units) when facing good defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage of <=42% in games played over the last 2 seasons. Take the Pirates.

John RyanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Spurs at Wizards
Play: Over
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The simulator shows a high probability that more than 195 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 82-37 mark for 69% winner since 2006. Play over with all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points and is a tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days with the game taking place in November. This system has already gone 14-7 ATS and 56% of all plays made have gone over the total by seven or more points. Washington is projected to shoot between 43 and 47% from the field. In past games, the Spurs are 21-8 OVER (+12.2 Units) in road games when their opponents make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons. Both teams are projected to have between 13 and 17 turnovers in this game. Spurs are 28-15 OVER in games where they force 13 to 17 turnovers over the last 2 seasons and are 29-15 OVER (+12.5 Units) in games where they commit 13 to 17 turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Washington is not an agressive to-the-hoop type of team and as a result they don?t get a high number of free throw opportunities. Spurs are 19-7 OVER (+11.3 Units) in road games versus low foul drawing teams that are attempting <=24 free throws per game over the last two seasons. Take the OVER.

Jimmy Boyd
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Milwaukee Bucks +4.5
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As if three consecutive losses aren't enough motivation, the Bucks have lost nine straight to their Central division rivals. In other words, this is a game the Bucks want badly.
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Under coach Scott Skiles, Milwaukee is an outstanding 26-12 ATS after three or more consecutive losses. It has actually won by an average score of 98.8 to 94.8 in these games. In addition, the Bucks are a rock solid 3-2 on the road this season and 4-1 ATS in those games.
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The Bulls, who are 2-8 ATS in their last 10, have been a poor investment this season, especially at home where they are 0-6 ATS. Chicago won at Milwaukee in its last game but is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a win.
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The road team has been the play in this series as it is on a 5-2 ATS run. Take the points as the revenge-minded Bucks give the Bulls a game.

Steve Janus
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Brooklyn Nets +1
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The Knicks were able to rebound from back-to-back losses with a 121-100 win over the Pistons at home last night, while the Nets continued their red-hot play with a 98-85 home blowout win over the Trailblazers.
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While both teams are playing the second of a back-to-back set, the Knicks face the more difficult challenge of having to play on the road. New York has lost two straight in this situation.
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The Knicks 6-0 start to the season certainly created a huge buzz around this team, but they are just 3-3 over their last six games and simply should not be favored on the road tonight. Brooklyn has won seven of nine and are 6-1 at home this season.
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While its extremely early in the season, I believe this game will have the feel of a playoff matchup. This is one of the more hyped games of the season to this point and it will only be magnified by the fact that it's being played in front of a national audience on TNT. Anytime you have a playoff atmosphere you have to take your chances on the home underdog!

Jack Jones
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Utah Jazz -3
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The Utah Jazz should be laying more than 3 points to the Denver Nuggets tonight. They have been extremely tough at home this season and over the last several year. This is a tough spot for the Nuggets as well.
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Denver will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days. It has not fared that well on the road this season, going 4-5 while giving up 101.7 points/game.
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Utah is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season. It is outscoring opponents 101.6 to 90.8 in Salt Lake City, or by an average of 10.8 points/game.
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The Jazz want revenge from their 84-104 road loss at Denver on November 9th. Considering Utah is 29-5 in its last 34 home meetings with the Nuggets, I like its chances of avenging that loss tonight. The favorite is 33-16-3 ATS in the last 52 meetings. Bet the Jazz Monday.

Rob Vinciletti

N COLORADO vs. COLORADO STATE
PLAY: COLORADO STATE

Colorado St has started off hot winning their first 4 games. They are off a pair of impressive road dog wins at Denver and Washington. They have won 15 of the last 16 vs losing teams and covering in 10 of the 12 that were lined. They have won all 5 meetings here vs North Colorado and beat them by 14 last season on the road. North Colorado is 1-5 straight up and to the spread vs Mountain West Conference teams and is coming off a 9 point home loss to Wyoming. Look for Colorado St to coast and cover tonight.

Red Dog Sports
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EAST CAROLINA vs. GEORGIA STATE
PLAY: EAST CAROLINA
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This is ECU's first road game. The Pirates some weak teams so far such as UNC-Greensboro and Appalachian State. They do have a solid PG in Miguel Paul and strong inside player Robert Sampson. Kemp can add points as well for Coach Jeff Lebo's ECU hoops' team.
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Georgia State has won two close games at home. They beat South Alabama by 2 and Tennessee State by 2. They are a nice CAA team led by Manny Atkin, Devonta White and the coach's son, CJ Hunter.
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Take ECU +4 in a close game that ends 67-66.

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Panthers / Eagles
Play: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Carolina Panthers aren't losing this season because of a lack of offense. In fact, just about every game they have played has been decided by 6 points or less with the exception of the Giants and Denver losses. With Carolina averaging almost 21 points per game minus those two losses, simple math would say this total is set too low. It goes quite a bit deeper than that though. Their defense is allowing more points than they are scoring, after all, if it was the other way around Carolina would have a winning record this season. It is a similar story for the Eagles who's defense is allowing 25.2 points per game. If you take a deeper look at the Eagles schedule its obvious to see why the offense hasn't been putting up huge numbers. They are playing tough defensive teams. A healthy Steelers team, the Redskins, Ravens and even an Arizona team back when they were undefeated. This game should serve as a good opportunity for the Eagles to build up some offensive stats against a Carolina team that has been beat up this season. Expect a shootout tonight as this game goes over the total.