Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, November 28

Scott Spreitzer

Long Beach St. at Louisville
Prediction: Long Beach St.

Long Beach State lost a tough one to Montana last time out, but the 49ers are the only team to have hung a loss on both Pittsburgh & Boise State so far this season. Coach Dan Monson led LB to a 22-12 record last season and a 1st place finish in the Big West. No less than four players return to the squad and all four have received all-Big West honors in their college careers. One of those returnees, Caspar Ware leads 5 players who average between 18.8 ppg and 8.4 ppg. T.J. Robinson takes care of the glass, averaging over 11 rpg, but he does have help with two others averaging at least 5 rpg. And Ware, Larry Anderson, and James Ennis, combine to average 11 apg. I mention all of the above to show just how talented and underrated this 49er team is. Long Beach "canned" 59% of their shots against Pitt, hanging even on the glass, while finishing with 24 assists and just 10 turnovers. Louisville is off to a 5-0 start, but they're a battered and bruised team. No less than 3 "regulars" are expected to miss tonight's game and at least 5 have been out at least one game this season. The Cardinals have piled up wins against somewhat soft opposition, and barely escaped with a 59-54 win over Ohio U. last time out. They may escape again tonight, but I don't believe it'll be by more than a couple of baskets. The value lies with the underdog in this one and I'm taking the points with Long Beach State on Monday.

VEGAS EXPERTS

NY Giants at New Orleans Saints

The Saints are averaging nearly 40 PPG here at home this season. They have a suspect defense however and Giants QB Eli Manning will be able to trade points with them. The G-Men are 22-9 Over against NFC opponents the last three seasons. They have also gone Over in each of their last four games indoors. New Orleans is 5-0 Over off back to back division games and 3-0 Over off a bye week. Look for a high scoring affair Monday night.

Play on: Over

Jim Feist

Long Beach State vs Louisville
Pick: Under

Rick Pitino lost his top scorer from last year's edition of Louisville basketball in Preston Knowles. With just two starters returning this year, Pitino will look to the incoming class to fill the void. And Pitino has one of the best of the freshman class in 6-foot-5 Wayne Blackshear. Pitino also looks forward to the addition of power forward Chane Behanan. Meanwhile, Long Beach State returns four starters to coach Dan Monson's team. Long Beach is 3-2 S/U, 2-3 ATS to start the season. Meanwhile, Louisville is 5-0 S/U and 3-1 ATS in 2011. In the three games with total lines, the Cardinals have gone UNDER in each contest. Louisville held Arkansas State to just 27 points and both Butler and Ohio U to under 55 points. In fact, Ohio University's 54 points was the most scored against Louisville in five games. The defense has been outstanding for Rick Pitino, holding three opponents to under 30% from the field and the other two to under 40%. I don't see Long Beach doing much offensively here either. This game is on national television, and the total opened at 134 1/2 and has dropped slightly to 133 1/2. I don't look for these two clubs to come close to that number as I'm going UNDER in this contest.

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Giants +7½ over NEW ORLEANS

Oh, those Giants. Each time they move up the league’s ladder, they find a way to slide back down. Frequently, it is when they are expected to win that they disappoint while performing best when expectations are low. Last week’s loss at home to the Eagles was a mind-bender and looks even worse now after the Pats demolished the same Eagles yesterday in Philadelphia. What’s interesting is that the G-Men defeated both the Patriots and the Eagles as substantial road underdogs and the Saints have not hosted a team with the passing ability of the Giants. With the Saints weak tackling skills, New York’s behemoth RB Brandon Jacobs capable of exploiting that weakness and the G-men’s pass rushing skills, the Giants could once again pull off a considerable upset or keep this one well within range. Play: N.Y. Giants +7½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Tampa Bay +106 over MINNESOTA

Minnesota is coming off back-to-back 5-2 losses while playing its third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs. Those two losses were to Edmonton and Calgary and they’re surely not taking a step down in class here. The Wild are an offensively challenged team that shot up in the standings due to some tremendous goaltending by Josh Harding and Niklas Backstrom. Both have come back down to earth from their unsustainable form and it’s no great surprise that the Wild can’t compensate for ordinary goaltending. The Lightning plays the type of style (the 1-3-1 trap) that Minnesota will find difficult to deal with. Tampa is coming off back-to-back wins over the then surging Panthers. They cooled them off with a 2-1 OT win in Florida and followed that up with an impressive 5-1 victory the next night. After a slow start the Bolts are looking more and more like the Bolts these days with an aggressive forecheck and creating chaos around the net. They’re the superior team here in a favorable spot taking back a tag. Play: Tampa Bay +106 (Risking 2 units).

Nashville –106 over EDMONTON

Key game for the Predators, as they play third leg of a five-game trip and the first of three in Western Canada. After losing the first two of said trip, we expect a more focused effort here, especially after getting smoked 6-3 by Edmonton in Nashville last week. That may have been the Predators worst performance of the year and now they catch the Oilers in a difficult situation. Edmonton returns home from a four-game trip that ended in Colorado with a 5-2 loss. The Oilers also lost a key player as Taylor Hall went down and that doesn’t help a team that is already without three starting backliners. Edmonton has shown a propensity for stringing together some poor performances and this should fall into that pattern. Play: Nashville –106 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

COLORADO -½ +131 over Dallas

It’s no coincidence that the Stars’ free-fall began when Alex Goglioski went down with a fractured thumb. The Stars have dropped seven of nine since and they’ve been shutout in three of their past seven games. Even before Goglioski’s injury, Dallas had been getting outplayed almost every night. Some outstanding goaltending by Kari Lehtonen kept them in every game and they found ways to win, most of them in the late going. Things have gone from bad to worse, as Lehtonen has been sidelined too, along with d-man Trevor Daley and another key contributor in Brendon Morrow. The Stars were an overachieving club when all those key guys were in and their free-fall is not over. Highly touted defenseman Stefan Elliott made his NHL debut for the Avalanche in their last game and he gave the Av’s a much-needed boost. Colorado trailed 2-1 going to the third and rallied for four unanswered goals to put away the Oilers, 5-2, capped by Elliott’s game-winner. The Av’s have some momentum after that needed win and it should carry over against this fragile and beatable visitor. Play: Colorado -½ +131 (Risking 2 units).

JR O'Donnell

Akron +10.5 vs W.Virginia

The J Oster off a powerful 4-1 "All Sports Sunday" & a members BB play on the Majerus lead Billikins by 20... goes short & sweet tonight as the members play goes to the Akron Zips + 10.5 as they have the back court play , Walsh, Maclandan & Abreu will keep these 3-2 boys for Ohio in it! The Neers who check in @ 3-1 are super soft..... They played and destoyed a Morehead State team by 35.... Thus line value here to a scrappy well coached ball club... The Zips protect the rock & have a deeper bench... They are on a smooth 14-4 ats cover run ....

Bryan Power

Pacific @ Stanford
Pick: Stanford -19

Big number to lay with a Cardinal team at home, but it is deserved. Stanford is 5-0 ATS in the early going, and coming off its first SU loss of the season - 69-63 to Syracuse. Pacific finds itself in a dreadful scheduling spot having played at Hawaii Saturday night, which is technically Sunday morning, giving them less than 48 hrs turnaround here. The Tigers return only two players from last season, neither of whom contributed much and are dealing w/ injuries right now in the backcourt. Under head coach Thomason, Pacific is 0-30 SU as a double digit underdog, so no need to worry about them challenging for the game. Both of their wins this season came against non-board teams and they needed to come from behind to beat one of them.

Matt Fargo

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Minnesota
PICK: Minnesota Wild

Minnesota will be out to end its homestand on a winning note following two straight losses which came on the heels of opening up a perfect 3-0 on this current six-game homestand. The Wild have lost their last two games by identical 5-2 scores, the latest coming last night against Calgary. Playing in the second of back-to-back nights should not be an issue as Minnesota won its last game playing with no rest which ironically came after a 5-2 loss against Los Angeles the previous night.

Tampa Bay meanwhile has won two straight games as it took back-to-back games against in-state rival Florida on Friday and Saturday. The Lightning have won only twice in their last six road games and both happened to come against Florida, neither of which took place in regulation. The four losses came by an average of 2.5 gpg and the defense has hurt on the road all season as Tampa Bay is allowing 3.42 gpg away from home. The Lightning are getting outshot by nearly five shots per game on the road.

Niklas Backstrom struggled last night in goal as he allowed three goals in the first nine minutes of the game and was pulled. It was his first game back after missing three games due to the birth of his child and rust was a definite factor last night. He is likely to get the start tonight and should be in much better shape. Even after last night he still has a solid 2.17 GAA and this is a team he has had success against as Backstrom is 4-1-1 with a 1.80 goals-against average against the Lightning.

Tampa Bay is 0-7 in its last seven road games following a win by four or more goals while going 1-6 in its last seven games after scoring five or more goals in its previous game. Meanwhile Minnesota is 7-2 in its last nine games after scoring two goals or fewer in its previous game. This is an ideal bounceback situation for Minnesota as it needs to end the homestand strong while extending its two-point lead over Vancouver in the Northwest Division.

Jack Jones

Tennessee Volunteers -3½

The Tennessee Volunteers should be more heavily favored over Oakland Monday night. This team has three wins all by 23 points or more, and their losses have come against Duke (77-67) and Memphis (97-99) on neutral courts. This tough early schedule will only benefit the Vols going forward.

Oakland also has two losses, but both of those came in blowout fashion to Alabama (57-74) and to Arkansas (68-91). Their lone home win was a lackluster one as they beat Utah Valley State by a final of 89-83. It's clear in my mind that Oakland is not on the same level as Tennessee talent-wise.

The Vols will have no problem getting motivated to play Oakland tonight. They were upset by Oakland 89-82 last year, and these returning players certainly have not forgotten that loss.

Tennessee has three studs in G Trae Golden (18.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 7.2 APG), F Jeronne Maymon (14.4 PPG, 9.4 RPG) and F Jordan McRae (13.4 PPG). Throw in returning starter Cameron Tatum (9.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG), and this has the makings of a potential NCAA Tournament team.

This play falls into a system that is 43-16 (72.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on a road team (TENNESSEE) - an explosive offensive team (>=78 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG), after scoring 85 points or more 2 straight games.

Tennessee is 9-2 ATS in November games over the last 2 seasons. The Vols are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games off a road win by 10 points or more. Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Bet the Vols Monday.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Long Beach State +10

The 49ers have 2 losses on the season, but those defeats came by just 4 and 2 points and to quality opponents. We saw this team stun Pitt with a 10-point win on the road earlier this month, and I believe it has what it takes to give a banged up Louisville squad a game this evening.

The Cardinals aren't at full strength. As many as 5 players have missed time this season. Forward Stephan Van Treese is out indefinitely after reaggravating a left knee injury. Mike Marra will likely miss the entire season with a knee injury and Wayne Blackshear could be out another month after undergoing shoulder surgery. Rakeem Buckles is just now starting to practice following knee surgery and Peyton Siva's ankle still isn't 100 percent.

With so many guys out, chemistry has been an issue for Louisville. That was apparent in its last game when it was lucky to survive Ohio.

Long Beach State has lost 2 of its last 3 but is 6-0 ATS when checking into a contest with 2 losses in 3 games since the beginning of last season. The 49ers are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. We'll take the points.

Steve Janus

Pepperdine +12½

UCLA doesn't deserve to be favored by 12.5-points in this game. The Bruins have opened the season 1-4, and it doesn't look good for this team going forward. They stated the year with back-to-back home losses against Loyola-Marymount and Middle Tenn St, went on the road and beat a terrible Chaminade team by 32, then lose ugly to Kansas and UCLA.

Pepperdine has a 3-2 overall record, including a nice 66-69 road win at Arizona St earlier this season. a game in which they were receiving 14.5-points. Playing in the WCC the Waves get to face some good teams in Gonzaga, BYU, and Sain Mary's, but rarely do they get a shot to play a program like UCLA. Expect Pepperdine to be extremely fired up for this game, while UCLA likely still has their head between their legs from the way this season has started.

If you don't include the Bruins win over Chaminade, they are really stinking it up on the defensive end. Every other team has shot 46% or better, with Middle Tenn St shooting a ridiculous 71.4%. UCLA's lack of defense should allow Pepperdine to keep this score close and make a run to possibly win it late. The Waves also appear to have an edge on the boards. Pepperdine comes in grabbing nearly 39 rpg, while UCLA averages just 31.8 rpg. UCLA's low rebounding numbers goes right along with the lack of effort they are playing with on defense.

Pepperdine is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. PAC-12, while UCLA is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. WCC.

Rob Vinciletti

Pacific vs. Stanford
Play: Stanford -19

Stanford has covered all their lined games this season and has played a much tougher schedule. They are coming off a hard fought loss to Syracuse in their last game. Tonight they come home for a Pacific team that is not as talented as in years past and their results this season indicate that. Pacific has a pair of wins vs Two lower tired California teams that are only on their schedule to prop up the win record. When they have played decent competition they have not looked good, getting blown out by 24 in Nevada and back dooring Hawaii for the cover last out. Pacific has lost and failed to cover the last 3 times as a road dog of +12.5 or more and are 2-6 straight up and ats vs opponents that allow 64 or less points per game. Look for Stanford to get the win and cover tonight.

Wunderdog

Xavier vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Vanderbilt -3.5

Xavier is going to find out that Memorial Gym is a very difficult place to play a basketball game, especially when the Commodores have a good team. Vanderbilt comes into this one playing with revenge as they have never beaten the Musketeers in four prior meetings. John Jenkins has picked-up right where he left off a year ago, averaging over 20 points per game and has now gone for 10+ in 38 straight games for the Vanderbilt. Xavier has dominated Atlantic-10 play for several years running, but have not fared well in out-of-conference games of late, posting just a 2-9-1 ATS mark in their last 12. Vanderbilt has ridden the momentum after a big win as they are now 36-16 ATS following a win of 20 points or more. We have a home-court advantage here, so Vanderbilt is the pick.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit Akron +10.5

Akron has already defeated a quality Mississippi State team on the road and should be able to test West Virginia tonight. The Zips are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Also, plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (W VIRGINIA) following a cover as a double digit favorite, playing only their 2nd game in 8 days, are 88-49 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take Akron.

Dave Price

1 Unit Tennessee -3

The Vols are 5-0 ATS on the season and their only defeats have come to very good Duke and Memphis teams. The Vols will be heavily motivated this evening as they look to avenge last season's upset loss to Oakland. Plays on favorites of 3 to 9.5 points (TENNESSEE) - an explosive offensive team (>=78 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG), after scoring 85 points or more 2 straight games, are 32-10 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 11.1 points. Take Tennessee.