Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
New Orleans/ NY Giants Under 51: Obviously when one first looks at this game you have to think OVER, but as Lee Corso would say "not so fast my friend". .The OU is 7-19-2 (0-2 this year) when the Giants are a road dog of 7 or more, while the OU is 1-6 in the Saints last 7 vs a team with a winning record. . The Giant defense hasn't been that great and they do rank in the bottom 3rd in the league in most categories, but they have been playing better of late allowing just 20.3 ppg in their last 4 games. Now when most people think about the Saints they think quick strike offense, but this team is actually 7th in the league in TOP so they work the ball down the field rather than hit the big plays all day. The Giant secondary has not played well this year, but they will look to keep everything in front of them and make the Saints us a lot of time consuming drives, plus we note that as bad as the Giants defense has loooked at times, they are still 11th in the league in red zone defense. The Giants are last in the league in running the ball, but they will need to do that tonight to keep a fierce New Orleans pass rush at bay. NY is 4th in the league in passing, while the Saints are 22nd vs the pass, so I really expect them to try and get pressure on ELi, which will force errant throws and miscues. Sure their is alot of offense that can be had in this game, but the Giants did a pretty good job on Philly and new england's offense, while the Saints have had the extra week to get their defense ready for this one. I look for a game in the low 40's here at best.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
UCLA/ Pepperdine Under 133.5: The Bruins played horrible defense on the islands and they have allowed teams to shoot for 56.9% on the year, including a whopping 60.7% from long range. Ouch. Tthat has not set well with Ben Howland and you can bet that the focus of tonight's game will be defense. Good thing they're playing a poor shooting Pepperdine squad that is hitting just 39.4% of their shots. Pepperdine does score 65.8 ppg, they are not an up tempo team as they have averaged just 52 shots per game (256th). The Bruins do like to run a bit, but they still have scored just 60.8 ppg on 39.1% shooting, including 27.3% shooting from long range. The Pepperdine defense should match up well vs this offense as they have allowed just 43.1% shooting on the year. They have allowed 38.6% from long range, but UCLA can't make threes so it doesn't matter. I fully expect UCLA to play much better defense in this one and I don't expect this game to put more than 125 points on the board.
4 UNIT PLAY
Tennessee/ Oakland Over 156: Last year these teams put 171 points on the board and I can see that happening tonight. Oakland had a couple rough road games vs Alabama and Arkansas, in which they put up just 62.5 ppg, but since then they have taken off, scoring 80 ppg in their next 3 games. The difference between the first 2 gamne vs SEC foes and tonight is that Bama and Arkansas plays defense and the Vols dont. Tennessee has allowed 75.2 ppg on 46.1% shooting, including allowing teams 42.9% from long range. On Offense Tennessee likes to push the ball as much as possible and they have averaged a healthy 85.2 ppg so far on 46.6% shooting, including a nice 40.2% from long range, plus they also have hit their FT's at a 75.7% clip. This team can score in all phases and they will be facing an Oakland team that gives up 73.4 ppg on 44.7% shooting. Both teams really push the ball as Oakland is 33rd in the nation in shots per game (61.4), while Tennessee is 29th (61.8 spg and I can see a game like last year when both teams put 80+ points on the board. I say this one hits 170 again.
3 UNIT PLAY
Akron +10.5 over WEST VIRGINIA: The Mountaineers are a very young team with 8 Freshmen, including PG Jabarie Hinds, who may have 4.3 assists per game and 2.8 steals per game, but his youth an inexperience has also led him to 3.5 turnovers per game. WVU is off BB easy wins, but Morehead State is not the same team as last years NCAA Tourney team and Alcorn State is well, Alcorn State. WVU did lose to Kent State here earlier and the Flashes are picked just ahead of the Zips in the MAC East. The Zips are 15th in the nation in FG% (50.3%), while the Neers are 32nd at 48.9%. The defensive stats are pretty even overall, but Akron does defense the arc very well (a good part of WVU's offense allowing just 19.2% from long range, while WVU allows 32.8%. A few edges for the Zips is that they are more experienced, have better depth, a very well coached team and WVU really has no one that can match up with 7 foot Zeke Marshall, who tallies 3.2 blocks per game, 9 points per game, grabs 4.2 rebounds per game and hits 70% of his shots. Akron already had a big win on the road (Mississippi State) and while I don't expect the outright win here, I do see them keeping it close.
2 UNIT PLAY
LOUISVILLE -10 over Long Beach State: The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on Monday nights, while the 49ers are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog of 7 to 12.5. Two things should wake up Louisville in this one and that is LBS' upset road win over Pitt and Louisville's narrow 5 point home win vs Ohio in their last game. Lousville is the better team with better depth and a better coach and they will not take any chance with this team or overlook them as they win by 15 points or more.
1 UNIT PLAY
Georgia/ Colorado Under 135: Contrasting styles here, but I feel that Georgia will find a way to slow this one down The Dawgs play good defense and they are 314th in offensive FG% (37.9%), plus neither team shoots FT's well. The OU is 3-13 in Georgia's last 16 non-conference games and I look for this one to not even hit 130 points.
Tradeline Sports
Tennessee -155
Backing money line chalk (Tennessee) between -165 and -500 that are coming off two straight games where they scored 85 points or more against opponent (Oakland) after a game where the two teams combined to score 165 points or more has cashed at a 83-12 (87%) clip over the last 15 college seasons. This is the first time the bias has presented itself this season.
Colorado -140
Fading road underdogs (Georgia) that are coming off a contest where they allowed 30 points or less in the first half for two straight games against a home opponent (Colorado) coming off a win by six points or less when the oddsmakers set the road dog between +145 and +350 on the money line. The trend is a time tested and shocking to say the least cashing at a 173-37 (82%) clip over the last five college campaigns and the bias is 1-0 this season.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Minnesota/ Tampa Bay Under 5.5: In their last game the Lightning put 5 goals on the board vs Florida, but this offense has been sputtering of last as they put up just 5 total goals in their in 3 games prior to putting up 5 vs Florida and they have averaged just 2.2 gpg in their last 8 overall. Minnesota has allowed 10 goals in their last 2 games, but they are still ranked 4th in goals allowed (2.2) and Nikolas Backstrom has a 1.80 GAA in 6 career starts vs TB, so I look for them to shore up the defensive end tonight. Minnesota is 28th in scoring at 2.2 gpg, so I don't expect much from them tonight. I expect a tight low scoring game in Minnesota tonight.
2 UNIT PLAY
San Jose -113 over LOS ANGELES: The Kings have no offense and the Sharks are the best road team in the league, plus San Jose is 19-7 the last 26 meetings here. Sharks roll.
Dr Bob
College Opinion
ST. MARY’S (-10) over Weber State
Weber State is now 4-0 after beating a back Jacksonville State team last night but the Wildcats are in a bad spot tonight against a very good St. Mary’s team. Teams playing in the championship game of their own tournament tend to cover and St. Mary’s applies to a 61-21-7 ATS home tournament final situation tonight. Weber may be a bit underrated and my ratings favor the Gael by just 9½ points and I’m not willing to give up any line value to make this play. I’ll lean with St. Mary’s based on the good situation.
OC Dooley
Georgia / Colorado Under 135
Both squads involved suffered serious offensive losses in the offseason due to graduation or early entry into the NBA. In four lined games so far Georgia has played UNDER the number each time as they struggle to replace the tandem of Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslie who one year ago averaged more than 30 points per contest. In the most recent outing the Bulldogs missed their initial 11 shot attempts from the field in a contest against Xavier where they trailed by as many as 36 points and put only 56 on the scoreboard. For the entire season to date Georgia is averaging a mere 60 points per outing. As for Colorado they have lost all four double-digit scorers from a year ago including sensational talent Alec Burks who arguably was the best single player in the entire Big 12 conference. Burks alone contributed more than 20 points per game and will be sorely missed from a team who is now led by big man (6’ 9”) Austin Dufault who along with Andre Roberson are hauling down a combined 18 rebounds per contest. Here is a 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (47-20 since 1997) which plays home teams like Colorado off consecutive upset wins as an underdog UNDER the total, with just two returning starters. My research indicates that in the month of November Colorado is 9-1 UNDER the last tem times they have played in front of the HOME fans. In the past three years Georgia just happens to be a resounding 8-1 UNDER the total when taking the court in the month of NOVEMBER