Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, November 29,2010

Scott Spreitzer

St. Peters at Seton Hall
Play: St. Peters

I had the Peacocks last week and we cashed when they not only covered as a double-digit dog, but beat Alabama outright. The number hasn't quite caught up as far as I'm concerned. You'll remember I pointed out that St. Pete's 0-3 start to the season didn't give a true representation of how well this team can play. They actually had a chance to win against Long Beach State and Old Dominion. St. Peter's was tied with ODU with just over six minutes to go, but couldn't overcome the Monarchs down the stretch. This is a good ODU team that came within 3 points of knocking of Georgetown. The Peacocks lost to Long Beach by 12, yet they trailed by only two points with three minutes to go in the game. It didn't help that they were outscored from the FT line, 25-6. St. Pete's has rebounded by winning their last two games over Bama and Long Island. They return all five starters from last year's squad, one that came within two points of knocking off Seton Hall last November. These two programs are quite familiar with each other, having played nine times since 2001. St. Pete's, some might be surprised, are 6-3 ATS in those games. They're on a 23-9 ATS run away from home, while the Pirates are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. And just as the Pirates thought things were coming together, they lost guard Jeremy Hazell to a broken wrist on 11/20. He's expected to miss about six weeks of action. Hazell led the team in scoring, averaging 24 ppg through three games. The Pirates are 0-2 SU since the injury. Let's grab the value and back the St. Peter's Peacocks for the second time this season.

Charlie Scott

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: San Francisco 49ers -1

Sometimes as handicappers we find matchups where just plain "common sense" can bring us a winner. The Az Cardinals are a bad Football team that has lost 5 in a row s/u and lost their last 2 games by 18 points each to KC and Seattle. While the Niners aren't having the season they wanted, they play competitive and have a good talent base with playmakers at skill positions.

BIG AL

North Carolina-Wilmington @ George Washington
PICK: George Washington -10

At 7 pm, the NC Wilmington Seahawks will tip-off with the George Washington Colonials in Washington, DC, and UNCW will be seeking revenge from a 76-71 home loss last season. But with just two starters returning this year from a club that won just 9 of 31 games last season, Buzz Peterson's men will be hard-pressed to get that revenge. This season, NC Wilmington is 2-0 at home, with narrow wins over Liberty and Morehead St., but 0-3 on the road, and its losses have been by an average of 21 ppg. Wilmington is averaging just 61 ppg this season (vs. foes that give up 65 ppg), and that doesn't bode well against a GW club that returned four starters from last year's team, and one that's holding its opponents this season to 59 ppg at home on 40% FG shooting. In their last three games, the Colonials have given up 62, 56, and 59 points, and fall into a College Hoops system of mine that's 66-20 ATS which plays on certain teams that gave up 65 or less points over their previous two games. GW is 67% over the past 21 years at home when laying double digits vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss, and we'll back the Colonials tonight over UNCW.

JIM FEIST

WASHINGTON WIZARDS / MIAMI HEAT
PLAY: MIAMI HEAT

The Miami Heat are yet to prove they are the team to beat this year in the NBA. With the signing of Lebron James in the off season, everyone was penciling-in a 70-win season and NBA championship for the Heat. However, with the Heat off to a 9-8 S/U and 5-12 ATS start, they have everyone scratching their respective heads as to what's wrong with this team. The answer maybe nothing or it could be everything. I'm pretty much going with the former and not the latter. Some times it takes a team a while to jell when you put many superstars on the team. They have to find their respective roles and once that happens, I think we will see this club rattle off the wins. But it also doesn't hurt playing Washington at home as they do tonight. The Wizards are just 5-10 SU and 6-9 ATS on the season. The Washington defense has been horrible, allowign 110 or more points in four straight games and five of the last six. In fact, the Wizards have allowed 110 or more in eight of their 15 games this season. The news gets even worse when you realize that the Wizards have broken the century mark in the points column just five of 15 games. As for the Heat, they haven't covered a games since Novemeber 5th. That is mainly due to the oddsmakers over-valuing them game in and game out. When you know the public wants to bet on the Heat, you are going to pay the extra price for doing so. There's no doubt the Heat have struggled this season, but sometimes there is not better cure than playing a soft team like Washington. While I don't normally like playing over-valued teams like Miami, I think tonight is the night they put a hurting on someone, and that someone is Washington.

SPORTS WAGERS

San Francisco @ ARIZONA

Brutal Monday night game sees two fire dumpsters going at it and assessing this one is a big waste of time. The Cardinals are a garbage team with no talent. The 49ers have talent but no heart or direction and therefore the correct line of a pick’em is up for grabs. The 49ers couldn’t score a single point at home against the 29th ranked defense of the Bucs last week while the Cardinals get their rear-ends handed to them weekly. So pick your poison, we’ll sit this one and not even attempt to figure out which way to go. Pass.

RANDALL THE HANDLE

49ers (3-7) at Cardinals (3-7)

Who scheduled this one? Freddy Krueger? Not to worry, a new episode of House is just a couple of clicks away. Obviously, neither side excites us but if you must, prefer home team over lame Niners, who couldn’t even score a point while home to penetrable Tampa defense. TAKING: CARDINALS +1

VEGAS EXPERTS

Milwaukee Bucks at Utah Jazz

No one is going to belabor the point of the Western Conference being far superior than their Eastern counterparts, but with these two teams 'the proof is in the pudding.' Milwaukee is 0-7 ATS in non-conference games while Utah is just the opposite at 6-0 ATS. The Jazz are 5-0 SU/ATS their last five games overall while the Bucks had failed to cash six straight games before a three-point win over Charlotte last time out.

Play on: Utah

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on TCU Horned Frogs -2

TCU is off to a 3-0 start at home, and I like it to improve to 4-0 on its home floor against the struggling USC Trojans. The Trojans and Horned Frogs have already played two like opponents this season, and TCU was more impressive against both of them. The Frogs played Rider to a 15-point game while the Trojans lost to Rider by 20. The Frogs defeated Bradley by 6 points while the Trojans lost to Bradley by 1. Both teams have proven that they are solid on the defensive end, but TCU holds the advantage offensively. The Horned Frogs are averaging 83.0 ppg at home while USC is only scoring 67.0 ppg on the road. Kevin O'Neill is a good coach. I'm confident he'll get this USC program back on track, but he'll take a few lumps along the way. Take TCU.

Frank Jordan

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Utah Jazz -8.5

Utah is in first place, has a 13-5 record, on a current 5 game winning streak and has won 8 of their last 10 games. Milwaukee, a playoff team from a year ago, is not quite having the same year this year as they are 6-10 and if the playoffs started today would be on the outside looking for a playoff spot. Milwaukee is 2-6 on the road and even worse against the West at just 1-6. Look for Utah to declare it buck season and crush Milwaukee tonight. Play Utah

Rocketman

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Utah Jazz -8.5

Milwaukee comes in with a 6-10 overall record this year while Utah is now 13-5 on the season. The Jazz are led by Deron Williams who is scoring 21.9 points per game on the season. Paul Milsap is pouring in 18.9 ppg, Al Jefferson 16.5 ppg, Andrei Kirilinko 11.8 ppg and C.J. Miles 11.2 ppg this season. That's five players scoring double digits for the Jazz. Williams also leads the team in assists averaging 9.9 per game. Al Jefferson is grabbing 8.6 rebounds per game and he leads the team in blocks at 1.4 per game. Utah has won 5 straight games overall heading into tonight's contest. It appears that Andrew Bogut will miss tonight's game for the Bucks and Corey Maggette and Drew Gooden are both listed as questionable. Milwaukee has lost 8 straight and 18 of their last 21 in Utah. We'll recommend a small play on Utah tonight!

BEN BURNS

Edmonton Oilers @ Ottawa Senators
PICK: Ottawa Senators -200

Large underdogs always have a shot at cashing in the NHL, as its a league where any team can win on any given night. That said, when a 'good team' hosts a 'bad team,' unless a goalie absolutely stands on his head and/or there's some sort of other situational factor involved, more often than not, the home team will come away with the two points. In this case, while the price may seem steep, I feel it could easily be even higher.

The Oilers certainly qualify as a 'bad' team, so far this season. They've got the fewest points in the Western Conference. They've allowed 88 goals already, by far the most the entire league. With their 5-0 loss at Phoenix on 11/23, they're now 4-16 their last 20 road games, dating back to last season.

In my opinion, the Senators also qualify as a 'good' team, at least when they're playing here at Ottawa. I played on the Sens on Saturday. At the time I noted the following: "...they've still gone 5-3 at home over the last month and are above .500 here on the season. Keep in mind that they were 26-15 (26-11-4) here last season..." We can add an extra "W" to those stats now as the Sens came through with an impressive 3-0 victory.

The Sens have been a team that's been able to take care of bad teams. With Saturday's win, they're now a profitable 6-1 (+5.4) against teams with a losing record. Given that they're a perfect 6-0 against the Oilers since 2006, the current price seems reasonable. Consider laying the wood.

LT Profits

Boise State -6

The Boise State campus may be in mourning due to the collapse of the football team on Friday night, but they are not the only team in school as the Broncos basketball team has represented the WAC well by getting off to a 5-0 start heading into Monday’s road contest vs. the Northern Illinois Huskies, out of the MAC.

The college basketball latest line from Bookmaker for this contest Boise State -6, with the betting odds set at -110.

Not only is Boise State 5-0 straight up, but the Broncos are also a perfect 4-0 in NCAA betting so far in their four lined games. This includes going 2-0 on the road with wins at San Diego and UC Davis. Not only are the Broncos outscoring their opponents by an average of +16.8 points per game in the early going, but they are also outrebounding their foes by +8.3 boards per contest, a figure that actually places them in the top 35 nationally.

The Broncos simply do not allow their opponents second chances at the basket, as they are only allowing offensive rebounds on 20.1 percent of opponents’ misses, which is best in the entire country based on the Pomeroy Ratings! That has been a major key in Boise’s success vs. the NCAAB odds this season, as few second chances is one of the main reasons that are allowing just 53.2 points per game, which is third best in the country behind Cincinnati and Michigan.

Northern Illinoismay be home, but that is just about the only thing in their favor here. In fact, they even lost their only home game vs. a Division I foe badly as they were blown out 97-78 by a Northwestern team not renowned for its offense. Also, while Boise State does not allow many second chance points, the Huskies have allowed a ton of them, as they are allowing offensive rebounds on 38.1 percent of missed shots, ranking 302nd in the country!

That has been a key reason why NIU is allowing a woeful 81.0 points per game while going 0-2 vs. Division I schools on the NCAAB betting odds, so look for the Boise State Broncos to take advantage in the NCAAB matchup.

SPORTS WAGERS

CALGARY -½ +1.14 over Minnesota

The only reservation you should have about this game is the fact that the Flames are returning home from a five-game road trip but it was not a grueling trip and therefore it will not deter us. Calgary started the trip in Detroit, followed by games in New York, New Jersey and Philly and finishing up in Pittsburgh. In terms of travel, that might be the easiest five-game trek in history. Having said that, the competition was anything but easy and the Flames actually played great despite winning just one game. Calgary was in every single game against some of the best. They took the Wings to OT, they beat Philly and they also took the Devils to OT. They still picked up points in three of those five games and they’re taking a huge step down in class when facing Minnesota. The Wild are simply the worst team in the NHL with a GM (Chuck Fletcher) that doesn’t know what the hell he’s doing. He’s taken a solid foundation and turned it into muck. The Wild get so badly outplayed every game that we’re not going to let up playing against them until they show us something dramatically different. When the season is over the Minnesota Wild will very likely have less wins than anyone else. There is nothing more to be said about this talentless intruder. Play: Calgary -½ +1.14 (Risking 2 units).

Edmonton +1.99 over OTTAWA

This really has to be considered a trip the Oilers are looking extremely forward to. Edmonton has a poor record but this team is loaded with outstanding young talent and they’re only going to get better. This team is very much like the Chicago Blackhawks were about four years ago with all that talent making its way to the major league level. Anyway, the Oilers will play its next three games in Ottawa, Toronto and Montreal and with at least a third of its roster from that general area, you can be sure they’ll be jacked right up. The Oilers rarely get a chance to play in this hotbed and the best news is that they’re coming off two solid games against Colorado and San Jose. The Sens are coming off a game against the hated Maple Leafs in which they won 3-0 but it was only its second win in seven games and frankly they just don’t warrant being this big a price over an enthusiastic and what should be a very motivated Oilers club. Edmonton has a chance to win two of three games on this trip, they should definitely win one and you know for sure the effort will be there. Play: Edmonton +1.99 (Risking 2 units).

EZWINNERS

San Francisco 49ers -2

What looked to be a very attractive Monday night match up before the season began could actually be the worst MNF game of the year as two struggling teams in a struggling division take the field tonight. I still think that the 49ers are the better team and San Francisco swept the Cardinals last season when Arizona still had Kurt Warner as their quarterback. This season the Cardinals do not have a quarterback and they have allowed 74 points in their last two home games which were both losses. San Francisco has not won away from home this season, but they should be able to break through with a win this week. Play on San Francisco.