James Patrick Sports
Boise State vs. Northern Illiniois
WAC sources have been impressed with Boise State's ability to quickly adapt to new uptempo schemes of first-year HC Leon Rice, Mark Few's longtime Gonzaga assistant who has brought much of the Zag playbook with him. Now unleashed, srs. G La'Shard Anderson and wispy 6-7 F Paul Arnold (both 18 ppg) emerging as legit go-to threats. Meanwhile, MAC sources still advising to proceed carefully with NIU bunch in adjustment phase after four projected starters bolted program in offseason. Big Game James Patrick's Monday complimentary selection in NCAA College Basketball is Boise State Broncos.
Bryan Leonard
Boise State vs. Northern Illinois
Play: Boise State -6
The Huskies of Northern Illinois are entering a strange year in which four of their top scorers decided to transfer in the off-season. A lot of the talk was that the players couldn't get along with head coach Ricardo Patton. That leaves a patchwork lineup that is short on interior players and a group that is a work in progress. Northern hasn't been a powerhouse in quite some time and they could be in for another long year. The Huskies had major second half issues in the two games against quality competition as they just don't seem to have the conditioning to compete at a high level.
Boise State went through a coaching change in the off-season as former Gonzaga assistant Leon Rice has taken over the program. While he talked early on about not knowing what he had at Boise, the Broncos have really been an early season surprise. The Broncos have been impressive with quality wins over San Diego and UC Davis on the road along with blowout home victories over Eastern Washington and Denver. The defense has been outstanding limiting those four foes to 60, 47, 54 and 52 points. The players have really taken to the Gonzaga style of offense and they should have little problems with a Northern Illinois team still trying to put the pieces together.
Wunderdog
Oilers vs. Senators
Play: Under 5.5
The Senators scoring has continued. This is a team that had one nine game stretch this season where they scored four or more goals five times. The problem is that in the preceding six games they scored four or more zero times and since that have scored four or more zero times in a total of 15 games, with the latest streak at nine. The nine games shows them finding the net a total of just 16 times, less than two per contest. That positions Edmonton to likely need four here, something they have accomplished just one time in their last 13 games. This is the fourth game for Ottawa in the last six nights, a situation that has left an UNDER trail behind them to the tune of 18-7-2 in their last 27. The Senators are also 15-5-3 to the UNDER in their last 23 as a home favorite. I like the UNDER in this one.
Tony Stoffo
Minnesota Wild vs. Calgary Flames
Play: Minnesota Wild
Tough spot for the Flames here as this will be their 4th game in 6 night's as they face the Wild here tonight. While throw in this will be their first game back home after a long and tiring road trip, and that makes them a fade here in this spot as they quality under one of my strongest system plays. Great value play on Minnesota at this nice plus price. Wild are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. Western Conference. Flames are 1-4 in their last 5 home games. Flames are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. Flames are 0-6 in their last 6 Monday games.
Teddy Covers
Houston @ Dallas
Pick: Houston +9
If you’ve bet against Dallas in the role of a home favorite every time, you’ve cashed at a 37-15-3 clip in their last 55 tries. While the Mavs have a ‘flavor of the month’ feel about them following their red hot start, they continue to come up short when asked to lay points at the American Airlines Center.
Already this year, the Mavs have lost SU as home chalk against the Grizzlies, Nuggets and Bulls. They’ve also failed to cover pointspreads as big home favorites repeatedly, winning by only two against Boston, nine against Philly, three against New Orleans and four against Detroit. Rick Carlisle’s squad is stellar to support on the road (7-0 ATS this year), but they are not a team to lay points with at home.
Houston finally has some positive momentum after knocking off Oklahoma City last night. They won SU here in Dallas on their last visit; their third SU win on this floor in their last five trips to Dallas. And while the Rockets have been a major disappointment early on, they’ve been competitive in defeat on a consistent basis – only two of their eleven losses have come by more than ten points. 2* Take Houston.
Jack Jones
Utah Jazz -8.5
Utah is playing arguably better than anyone in the NBA right now. The Jazz are 13-3 in their last 16 games overall, going 12-4 ATS in the process. They have won and covered in five straight games with wins by 9 points or more in every game except for the Lakers, who they beat by 6 points. The Bucks are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall, and they have dropped 5 of their last 6 outright. During their recent 1-5 run, they have lost three times by 11 points or more including an 11-point loss at Philly and a 14-point setback at Detroit.
The Bucks are plagued by injuries right now, with starting center Andrew Bogut doubtful to play Monday and starting forwards Corey Maggette and Drew Gooden questionable with ankle and foot injuries, respectively. With these injuries comes little depth and a poor starting line-up, one that couldn't compete with most teams in this league. Utah is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings with Milwaukee, including a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home meetings. The Jazz have won each of their last 5 home meetings with the Bucks by 11 points or more. Take Utah Monday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on New Orleans Hornets +3.5
Both the Hornets and Thunder are looking to bounce back from disappointing losses Sunday, but I'll gladly take the Hornets catching better than a trey. The Hornets are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. They are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Thunder are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Take the points.
Info Plays
3* on Houston Rockets +8.5
Reasons the Rockets cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home favorites (DALLAS) - extremely tired team - playing their 5th game in 7 days, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record. This is a 58-23 ATS System hitting 71.6% since 1996. The Mavs are tired right now and coming off an emotional win over the Miami Heat. They are in for a letdown when the Rockets come to town.
2.) Houston has won their last 2 meetings with Dallas. In four meetings last season, Houston held Dirk Nowitzki to just 16.0 PPG and 5.8 RPG. The Mavericks are 14-36-3 ATS in their last 53 games as a home favorite. Bet Houston on the road.
Triple Threat Sports
TCU (-) over USC
Frogs have played pretty well this year, with a win over Bradley the highlight. Coach Jim Christian has improved the talent level of this team in now his third year at the helm, and here they have a chance to knock off a Pac 10 team. USC playing its second road game in three days, having lost the first one at Nebraska. Look for TCU to snag a five to seven point win here.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Hornets/Thunder UNDER 200
Plays Under on any team (OKLAHOMA CITY) off a close road loss by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 127-78 ATS since 1996. We are only seeing an average of 188.3 total points scored in this situation. Plus, the Under is 4-0 in the Hornets' last 4 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. With both teams playing yesterday, tired legs should favor a slower pace in tonight's contest. Bet the Under.
Black Widow
1* on Hornets/Thunder UNDER 200
When the Hornets and Thunder have gotten together over the last few seasons, a defensive battle has taken place in almost every meeting. 4 of their last 5 meetings have seen 198 or less combined points, with the other finishing at 202 points. With the way the Hornets are playing this season, we see no way this one finishes above the number come game's end. New Orlenas is scoring 96.5 points/game and allowing 92.2 points/game overall. In 8 road games this year, the Hornets are scoring 92.7 points/game and allowing 90.1 points/game for an average combined score of 182.8 points/game. This is a team that is 12-4 this season due to their play on the defensive end, because they are actually having a hard time scoring the basketball. Both teams are playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. Thus each is very tired right now which makes an up-tempo game highly unlikely, favoring a defensive battle. Take the UNDER 200 points here.
Hollywood Sports
Hoftstra at Rider
Play: Hoftstra
The Pride bounced-back from losing three games in the Puerto Rico Tip Off Classic tournament by defeating Wagner by a 68-62 score. New head coach Mo Cassara comes from being an assistant at Boston College where slowing the pace down was often used to keep the Eagles in ball games. Cassara has the benefit of the Colonial Athletic Association's Player of the Year, Charles Jenkins, back for another season. Hoftra has covered 6 of their last 8 road games and now travel to Rider who come off a 73-60 loss to Siena. The Broncs (4-2) have failed to cover the spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as a favorite. They return four starters from a 17-16 club that struggled with scoring the basketball. Last season in MEAC play, Rider produced only 0.98 Points-Per-Possession which is not very efficient. Look for the Pride to keep it close. Take the points with Hofstra.
O.C. Dooley
Heat -12
One of the “intangibles” has to do with the fact that during the weekend Miami held a PLAYERS-ONLY meeting following their latest loss, which helped clear the air for a struggling squad where rumors have been flying that Pat Riley will step down from the front office to coach the team. Miami had better get healthy in a hurry because on Thursday of this week in a game that will be nationally televised (TNT), LeBron James will be returning to Cleveland for the first time since making the infamous “decision”. The heavy-hyped Miami Heat (9-8) are barely above the .500 mark overall and have lost 4 of the most recent 5 games straight-up, with a pair of them by “double-digit” margins. Miami’s offense has been held to “100 or less” points on the scoreboard in six consecutive outings, where the team has been out-rebounded on the boards five different times. For investors the Heat have been an absolute disaster (1-11 ATS skid) and yet the oddsmakers have chosen once again to “over-price” LeBron and company this evening which to me speaks volumes. One of the reasons why has to do with the wretched ROAD record of Washington (0-7 SU/2-5 ATS) whose defense on the highway has been scored to the tune of 110 points per game. The only player on the Wizards roster that is of any interest to the national media is standout rookie John Wall who due to injury (knee) has either been sidelined or been below average in the past week. It would seem that Miami is facing the perfect opponent this evening as they are a resounding 7-1 SU/ATS the past three years when facing Washington in this series