Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, November 3

Randall the Handle

Colts 5-3 at Giants 3-4

It's feast or famine with the Giants as they either win or get crushed. All four of the G-Men's defeats have been by 10 or more and now they get an angry Colts squad that was embarrassed in Pittsburgh last week. Prefer to hitch our wagon to Andrew Luck and his mates than this erratic New York bunch as Indy had won five straight before getting trounced last Sunday. Indianapolis has shown a penchant for bouncing back as it has won 13 of 14 after a loss. The Giants return from a bye but they are still minus some key players and they had dropped a pair by a combined 58-21 prior to their week off. The Colts should get back in win column here. TAKING: COLTS -3

Mike O'Connor

Indianapolis (-3) 32 NY GIANTS 23

The Colts were thoroughly whipped last week as Ben Roethlisberger had a career day, tearing through the Indy defense for 522 yards at 10.7 yps. Overall, the Steelers racked up 640 total yards at 8.0 yppl in the Colts 34-51 loss in Pittsburgh. Amazingly, just the week before, the Colts defense had pitched a 27-0 shutout in Cincinnati, completely shutting down the Bengals offense. Only one other time since 1983 has a team posted a shutout two weeks back and then allowed >50 points the following week. It was the Bucs and they beat the Lions in 1985 as a pick, 19-16. It’s not much of a sample size but that being said, I expect the Colts defense to rebound after getting clobbered last week and play more like the defense that allowed 19.4 points the first six games.

There’s certainly no reason to be concerned about the Indy offense, as they put up 449 yards at 8.0 yppl last week and so far on the season are averaging 452 total yards at 6.2 yppl against teams that allow 367 yards at 5.5 yppl. They should move the ball well this week against a Giants defense that is below average both against the run and the pass, allowing 382 total yards at 6.3 yppl to teams that gain 369 yards at 5.8 yppl. The Giants have been a bit banged up in the secondary with top cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie trying to work his way back from injury. Having a shorthanded secondary could be a real problem against a deep Colts offense.

Since Andrew Luck arrived in 2012, the Colts are 10-1 SU and ATS off a loss and should be highly motivated to play well in primetime on Monday Night Football. Meanwhile, the Giants come off of their bye and a 21-31 loss to the Cowboys in Dallas the week prior. New York has played well against .500) in the Lions, Cardinals, Cowboys and Eagles. There are situations that go both ways in this game but the stronger one is on the Colts and my model favors Indy by 9.0 points. However, Indy has had some positive fumble luck while the Giants have lost eight of their eleven fumbles offensively while their opponents have only lost two of their six. Also, Indy is #1 in defensive 3rd down conversions, holding opponents to a league best 31.1% while converting well on offense with a 44.6% rate and #6 ranking. I don’t expect those rates to continue and with a rested Giants team needing a win to get back in the mix in the NFC I can’t play on Indy. This game is close to being a Best Bet, but I’m going to pass and just offer a strong lean on the Colts minus the short number.

DAVE COKIN

UTAH JAZZ AT LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
PLAY: LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS -9

I like to look for spots where I expect a good team to play up to its collective abilities. This will generally mean having to spot a good number of points in the NBA, but it has also proven to be a profitable method for me going back more years than I can even count.

The Clippers tossed in a clunker on Sunday as they lost at home to the Sacramento Kings. Fact is, the Clippers are 2-1 out of the gate, but they haven’t really played a complete game yet and ended up paying the penalty yesterday.

Losses in games good team no doubt feel they should have won frequently serves as a good wakeup call for these entries. I’ll be hoping that’s the case tonight as the Clipper swing right back into action against the Utah Jazz.

The Clippers have moved up the NBA power ranking ladder nicely following so many years of utter mediocrity. I think they’ve got a chance to be an elite entry this season. As it is, they were at least a very solid team last season. The Clippers also did a great job of responding to a loss, as they were 19-5 outright and 18-6 against the spread off a defeat last season. I expect that trend to continue this year and will therefore be considering a play on this squad when in these circumstances.

The Jazz opened some eyes with some surprising pre-season play, but got thumped in their first two games that counted. Utah comes into this game off a nice win over the Suns, but if the Clippers are right, it ought to be a long night for the visitors. I’ll bank on the hosts showing more intensity off their initial loss, and I’ll go ahead and spot the points with the Clippers this evening.

Rob Vinciletti

Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Los Angeles Clippers -9.5

The Clippers fit a nice early season system that pertains to teams in the first week off spread losses in their first 3 games, vs a team off a dog win like the Jazz. The Clippers were beat here last night by a mediocre Sacramento team. Tonight they have the Jazz coming in off a big home dog win over Phoenix on Saturday, The Jazz have failed to cover 6 of the last 8 on the road if the total is 205 to 210. The Clippers are 19-1 with 14 spread wins as a home favorite from -9.5 to -12 and are 5-0 with 4 spread win as a home favorite with no rest off a home game. In the series they have covered 4 of the last 5 here vs Utah. Look for The Clippers to get the cash tonight.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Kings at Nuggets
Pick: Under

Both these clubs tonight enter this contest at 1-1 S/U and ATS. The Kings have been led by Rudy Gay, who has averaged 27 ppg in the first two games. However, once you get past Gay, DeMarcus Cousins (18.5 ppg) and Darren Collison (15.0 ppg), there really hasn't been much contribution. In fact, this Kings club is very weak on the bench. On the flip side, Denver goes deep into their bench, evidenced by 10 of their 12 players averaging over ten minutes of playing time this season. Arron Affalo and Kenneth Faried both lead the club with 14.5 ppg this season. There really aren't any big name players on this club, so they will need to rely on a lot of players to win in a tough west. Neither of these teams scoring much with both clubs averaging 90 ppg this season. The Kings are shooting just 36% from the field, well below the league average of 44.7%. Sacramento had to play at the Clippers on Sunday and now play the ever-tough, back-to-back spot in a high altitude Denver. We could see the King sucking air before this one is over. In fact, the last 18 times these teams have met in Denver the game has gone UNDER 13 times. Both teams already not scoring much, and with the Kings having played yesterday, I look for this one to go UNDER here on Monday.

Heath Mac

Colts vs. Giants
Play: Under 50½

This game will be a tight one and the total looks to have been set a little high. There are a few key trends that point us in the UNDER direction here. Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (INDIANAPOLIS) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the second half of the season are 40-13 UNDER L53 games. The Giants are 2-10 O/U L12 games when playing against a team with a winning record.

Jesse Schule

Pelicans vs. Grizzlies
Play: Under 189½

The Grizzlies host the upstart New Orleans Pelicans on Monday night, and the visitors are 1-1, scoring over 100 points in each of those games. Don't expect that trend to continue here in Memphis, against a Grizzlies team that is allowing an average of just 86.3 points, ranking first in the NBA.

The Pelicans should have no trouble holding their own though, with 21 year old superstar Anthony Davis. He comes in averaging over 28 points and 16 rebounds per game, but the statistic I am most excited about is his 12 blocks in the first two games. Keep in mind I placed a cheeky little bet on Davis to win the Defensive Player of the Year at 8-1 odds. He led the league in blocks last year, and I think he's likely to do it again this season.

The Pelicans have covered five straight versus Memphis, and four of those five games went under the total. Going back further finds that six of the last seven went under the number, and tonight's total is higher than it was in five of those games.

The Grizzlies are coming off a 71-69 win over the Hornets, and prior to that they defeated the Pacers by a score of 97-89 in Indiana. I expect this to be another closely contested low scoring game.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Soccer Authority

Cagliari vs. Lazio
Pick: Lazio

Lazio will take on Cagliari at the Stadio Olimpico on Monday evening in buoyant mood, after a fantastic run of form which has propelled them into Champions League contention.

After losing three of their first four league matches under Stefano Pioli, the club’s worst start to the season for 54 years, the Biancocelesti went on a run of four consecutive victories against Palermo, Sassuolo, Fiorentina and Torino before a draw away to Verona last time out.

At home this season they have won 3 of their 4 games in the league.

They are the inform side and are proving very hard to oppose recently.

Lazio have beaten Cagliari the last two times the sides have met, both 2-0 wins for Lazio.

Also, the last 3 times the sides have met at the Stadio Olimpico, Lazio have won!

The signs all point towards a Lazio win here, so get on board!

Ben Burns

Sacramento vs. Denver
Pick: Denver

I successfully backed Sacramento in Friday's 103-94 win vs. Portland. The Kings followed up that victory by upsetting the Clippers, yesterday afternoon. That means that they'll be playing their third game in the past four days here. The Nuggets know that they'll face these same Kings, at Sacramento, on Wednesday. In other words, they know they need to take care of business tonight. Armed with this knowledge and with the schedule in their favor, I believe the Nuggets will come away with the win and cover.

Ben Burns's Featured Package

Mike Lundin

Blues vs. Rangers
Play: Over 5

These two teams played each-other in their season opener at Oct 9, a game that the Rangers won 3-2. I expect more goals tonight, New York is likely to struggle on defense missing defenders Ryan McDonagh, Dan Boyle and John Moore, plus rest its #1 netminder Henrik Lundquist. Cam Talbot will take place between the pipes instead, making his second start of the season. His first was not particularly impressive, the 27 year old conceded four goals on 23 shots in a 5-2 loss to Columbus on Oct 11.

The Rangers do however have offensive firepower in Rick Nash who is second in the league with his nine goals (two fewer than Corey Perry who has played three games more). They are averaging 31.3 shots per game and have scored 26 goals over their first 10 games.

EZWINNERS

New York Giants +3

Indianapolis was torched by the Steelers offense last week as the Colts defense failed to get any pressure on Big Ben and I expect the Giants to use the same max protection schemes to give Eli Manning time to pick apart the Colts secondary. Giants head coach Tom Coughlin has been terrific at getting his team ready to play coming off of a bye week and this is a critical game for the Giants who are coming off of back to back division losses. Andrew Luck and the Colts offense will put up points, but I don't believe they should be favored in this spot and I will take the available points in what could turn into a shoot out. New York does have four losses, but those losses are also against the four teams that have the best records in the NFC.

EZWINNERS

New York Giants +3

Indianapolis was torched by the Steelers offense last week as the Colts defense failed to get any pressure on Big Ben and I expect the Giants to use the same max protection schemes to give Eli Manning time to pick apart the Colts secondary. Giants head coach Tom Coughlin has been terrific at getting his team ready to play coming off of a bye week and this is a critical game for the Giants who are coming off of back to back division losses. Andrew Luck and the Colts offense will put up points, but I don't believe they should be favored in this spot and I will take the available points in what could turn into a shoot out. New York does have four losses, but those losses are also against the four teams that have the best records in the NFC.

Jack Jones

Los Angeles Clippers -8½

The Los Angeles Clippers have not played well through their first three games of the season. Sure, they are 2-1, but their two wins have come by a combined 10 points over the Thunder and Lakers, and they also lost to the Kings yesterday.

Because they are off to a slow start, I believe the Clippers are showing a ton of value tonight as only 8.5-point favorites over the lowly Utah Jazz. I still believe that the Clippers are one of the best teams in the NBA, and if not for the slow start, they would be a double-digit favorite in this one.

Los Angeles will be up against a Utah team that has started 1-2 and appears to be one of the worst teams in the NBA once again in 2014-15. It has lost to both Houston (93-104) at home and Dallas (102-120) on the road, and I fully expect the Jazz to lose by double-digits to the Clippers here as well.

The Clippers have won nine straight meetings with the Jazz. Their last five wins in this series have all come by 8 points or more, so it has rarely been competitive between these two over the past couple seasons. They have won those five games by an average of 11.6 points per game.

Los Angeles is a sensational 14-3 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last two seasons. The Jazz are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Clippers are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The home team is 23-8-1 ATS in the last 32 meetings in this series.

Dave Price

Los Angeles Clippers -8½

The Clippers will come storming back following Sunday's upset loss to the Kings. They are on a 14-3 ATS run following an upset loss and have won by an average score of 111.1 to 98.8 in this spot. The Clippers have also had Utah's number, winning each of the past nine meetings with the last five wins coming by an average of 11.2 points.