Jimmy Boyd
Los Angeles Clippers -8½
After not playing their best basketball in back-to-back wins to open the season, the Clippers got a major wake-up call yesterday in a 92-98 home loss to the Kings. I look for LA to use that as motivation and come out with their best effort of the season against the Jazz.
Utah is comes in off an upset home win over the Suns, but had lost each of their first two by double-digits, including a 18-point road loss at Dallas. It's no secret that the Jazz are not a good road team and they have had more than their share of troubles trying to beat the Clippers. Los Angeles has won each of the last 9 meetings in the series, including 5 straight at home. Their smallest margin of victory in the last 5 meetings is 8-points, so there's definitely some value here.
The Clippers are a dominant 20-9 ATS in their last 29 home games against a bad road team that's winning less than 40% of their games. LA is also a strong 14-3 ATS in their last 17 following an upset loss as a favorite, while Utah is just 11-22 ATS in their last 33 after a game where they covered the spread. These trends combine to form a 71% (56-23) system in favor of the Clippers.
Steve Janus
Kings/Nuggets Under 202
I think the books have set this total too high. Sacramento has held each of their first three opponents under 100 points and that's saying something considering they have played the Warriors, Trail Blazers and Clippers. Denver is only averaging 90.0 ppg in their first two and were dominant defensively in their home opener, limiting the Pistons to just 79 points on 36.9% shooting. Sacramento isn't going to be looking to push the pace. The Kings are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set and it's also their 3rd game in the last 4 days.
System - UNDER is 43-17 (72%) over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 200 to 209.5 points with a home team that was not strong defensively the previous year (allowed 45.5% or better shooting).
Nick Parsons
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies
Play: Under 187½
Something will have to give when Memphis plays host to New Orleans. New Orleans comes in ranked 12 in the league in scoring averaging 102 points a game. While the Grizzlies are allowing just 86.3 points per game and forcing 20.3 turnovers. They are looking to get sorer Mike Conley fired up as he has only shot 16-48 so far this season.
In the Grizzlies last game, the first without injured Courtney Lee, they shot a dismal 36.3 percent in scoring 71 points. They did get the win however. Memphis' defense held the Hornets to 36.1 percent shooting,
In two games the pelicans Anthony Davis has 57 points, 32 rebounds and 12 blocks thus far. The Pelicans are shooting 41.6 percent, though they've committed only 22 turnovers.
The Grizzlies' reserves have been outscored 124-51 while New Orleans has given up a 61-47 advantage.
The total is set at 187 and I am playing on the under. I see Gasol and Randolph controlling the paint on the defensive end andcontinue to struggle sgooting the ball without Lee in the lineup.
Wunderdog
Boston vs. Dallas
Pick: Boston +10
The Boston Celtics may have created some false hopes with their season opening victory, but they met a quick harsh reality in game two where they were ousted 104-90 in Houston in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score. Dallas took a narrow loss to San Antonio in their opener, but have gone on to win two straight since, and have reached the century mark in all three games. The Mavs may be a bit flat here for this one as they leave for their next game in Portland, followed by Utah, and then back home against Miami. Boston will not get their attention, and there is enough depth on the Boston roster to get a player or two hot, and keep this one at arms length, or a back door cover. The Mav's have proven to lay down at home vs. a team with a losing road record, now at 1-5 ATS in their last six. The Celts may have lost the last four here, but they are 7-2 ATS here in their last nine. Too many points, make the play on Boston.
Mark Franco
Colts at Giants
Play: Giants
The bye week came just in time for the New York Giants, who will attempt to halt a two-game skid when they host Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night. Back-to-back road losses to division rivals Philadelphia and Dallas dropped the Giants below .500 and they face a steep climb to get back into the playoff picture. The Colts were riding high with a five-game winning streak, but it came to a screeching halt in a 51-34 loss at Pittsburgh last week. Indianapolis had allowed 17 points or fewer four times during its five-game run and was coming off a shutout before its defense was shredded by Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers, allowing six touchdown passes and more than 500 yards through the air. New York had won three in a row and rolled up a staggering 105 points in the process, but it was shut out in Philadelphia and unable to keep pace with Dallas prior to the bye week. I expect the Giants to bounce back and play down to the wire.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. GIANTS +3 over Indianapolis
The Giants have lost two straight and have been outgained by 71 yards, 194 yards and 80 yards in their past three games. They were also outgained by the Lions by 220 yards. The previously mentioned three games were against Matt Ryan, Nick Foles and Tony Romo. Add Drew Stafford and that set of QB’s has shredded the Giants defense. The other three QB’s the G-Men faced were Drew Stanton, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Kirk Cousins, who has been relegated to third string and who threw four picks against the Giants. Do you see a pattern here? We sure do. Good QB’s will tear apart the Giants and Andrew Luck is great.
Throw at last week’s 51-34 loss to Pittsburgh in a very unfavorable scheduling spot and the Colts have outgained their last five opponents by the following yards: 185, 237, 145, 124 and 371. That 371 is not a typo either. Luck has thrown for at least 300 yards in six consecutive games, passing the franchise record of five set by Peyton Manning during the 2009 season. The NFL record for most consecutive games of at least 300 yards is nine by New Orleans' Drew Brees, set twice from 2011-12 and 2012-13. Do we need to go any further? The Colts have plenty appeal here while the Giants have little and this info isn’t anything you already don’t know. However, we feel the same way about this game as we did with the Denver/New England game yesterday and if you missed it, here’s what our position is:
We couldn’t care less which team on paper is supposed to win. If the team that was supposed to win every week won, we’d all be rich. We’re more interested in the conversation at the round table when the oddsmakers set this line. They knew that this is an isolated game in which millions will be that will make or break the week for sportsbooks. If Indy wins and covers, the books will get buried. Obviously the oddsmakers discussed coming out with a line of Indy -3½ or even -4. Obviously they knew that if they set the line at -3, that 80% or more of all bets would come in on the Colts. Surely, the linesmakers could have set this line at Indy -3½ or -4 in an attempt to “balance the books” but they didn’t. The oddsmakers are enticing one-sided action. They want it and they welcome it. That doesn’t mean they’ll be right but when they’re “gambling” with millions they’re usually right and because of that, we want to be on the same side as the books. That’s our position and there’s nothing more to it than that. We’re not playing it but in no way would we lay the points with the Colts because of the aforementioned reason and because backing Monday Night road favorites has been a low percentage play forever.
SPORTS WAGERS
St. Louis -½ +142 over N.Y. RANGERS
Regulation only. There are a few juggernauts this year that have a very legit chance of winning the Cup and there are many very average teams that have no chance. The Rangers, if 100% healthy has a very slight chance of getting back to the finals. That means they need two of their best players, Derek Stepan and Ryan McDonagh in the lineup but tonight, that pair is on the rack. The Rangers are still overvalued. They’ve won four of six but some good scheduling situations have aided that. Over their past three games, the Rangers were shutout by Winnipeg, lost 3-1 at Montreal and in between those two games they won against Minnesota 5-4 in that bizarre game that they were trailing in 3-0 going to the third. Take out that one fluky period and the Rangers have scored 1 goal in their last eight periods. Losing McDonagh is also very serious. He’s a stabilizing force behind the blue-line, who plays 23 to 25 minutes a night.
By contrast, the Blues are a legit threat once again. They were favored to win the Cup last year and because they were knocked out early and got off to a rather slow start this year, they are a little bit under the radar. Make no mistake, the Blue Notes are better, deeper, and more determined than ever to shake off their choke label. They have reeled off four in a row over Chicago, Dallas, Anaheim and Colorado while allowing just 7 goals against in those four games against a whole slew of offense. Forget that T.J. Oshie and Paul Stastny are out, as Stastny has been out for a while and Oshie was doing nothing before he was injured. St. Louis lost to the Rangers in its season opener back in St. Louis. They were making some line adjustments then. Losing to this inferior opponent twice in a month is not likely to happen unless the Blue Notes come in unprepared but we can’t imagine for a second that being the case.
Bruce Marshall
Sacramento Kings AT Denver Nuggets
Pick: Denver Nuggets
Sacto on a nice 2-game uptick, but expect a letdown tonight at Denver after yesterday's rousing win over the Clippers. With a full complement of players once again after LY's injury-ravaged campaign, Nuggets look like a force to be reckoned with. Kings will also have their hands full with "Manimal" (Nuggets F Kenneth Faried 17 boards in opening win over Pistons).
Doug Upstone
Houston Rockets vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Houston Rockets -10
Play On road teams like Houston after two or more consecutive Under's, who are averaging 102 or more a game, against a defensive team surrendering 102 or more PPG. In the past four years, teams like the Rockets are 53-22 ATS, 70.7 percent.
Joe Gavazzi
Denver Nuggets -7
The long-suffering Sacramento Kings are off to their best start in years at 2-1 SU ATS. At the close of 2013, Sacramento had a typical 28-54 SU mark, 3rd worse in the Western conference. It should come as no surprise to long-time NBA aficionados that the Kings last season were an identical 28-54 SU, again finishing 3rd worst in the Western conference. Defense has long been a challenge for Sacramento, as indicated by the fact that in those two seasons, the Kings allowed 104 PPG. This is not something new for Sacramento, who ending last season, had a defensive record that saw foes shoot an NBA best 47.2% against the Kings in the last 8 years.
This year has seen a dramatic turn in fortunes by Sacramento. Through 3 games of the current season, Sacramento is allowing just 40.7% from the field, 28.6% from the arc and only 93 PPG. Most impressive is that these numbers have against winning Western conference teams, Golden St., Portland and the LA Clippers. On Friday night, Sacramento upended Portland (103-94) as 5 point home dog. Yesterday afternoon, the Kings traveled to face the LAC, promptly pulling a 98-92 upset. Note that these were a pair of teams who went deep into the NBA playoffs last May. Also note, that the Kings have allowed none of those 3 teams to score more than 95 points. However, NBA underdogs, following consecutive upsets, are a low percentage play following those shocking victories. We all know how fragile the egos of this team are. Right now, Cousins is averaging 27/13, while Rudy Gay is averaging 26 PPG. When dissension begins to creep, life will not be so smooth on the road for the Kings. After their Sunday night contest vs. the Clippers, they now must travel to altitude to face the Denver Nuggets.
This is a Denver team who has owned Sacramento on this floor, winning 9 of the previous 10 games against the Kings at this site. In their opening game on Wednesday night, the Nuggets played solid, if not spectacular ball in an 89-79 victory on this court over Detroit. Clearly, they were over confident at OKC on Saturday night, once the realization sunk in that the Thunder were without Durant and Westbrook. They were shocked by the eventual 102-91 defeat. But, home/road dichotomies have been nothing new over the years for the Nuggets. In 2013, Denver was 57-25, going 38-3 at home but 19-22 away. Though Denver fell to 36-46 last season, they still won 8 more home games than road.
Early season NBA handicapping is clear on the reversal in this game. Game 3 NBA teams, who posted 30 or more victories last season, are a better than 75% ATS proposition, if they lost as a favorite in their previous game. Combined with the fact that the Kings are off consecutive underdog victories vs. quality opponents and now must travel to altitude, it sets up an outstanding value play on the Denver Nuggets.
Harry Bondi
Colts / Giants Under 51
We expect both of these defenses to play well tonight. Giants best chance to hang in this game is to slow down the Colts high scoring attack by keeping Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis offense off the field. Look for New York to go with a run heavy offensive game-plan that will eat up the clock and keep the Colts offense off the field. Indianapolis's defense had been playing well before being embarrassed by the Steelers last week. We look for them to play much better tonight.
Bob Balfe
Indianapolis Colts -3
There is that old saying, keep it simple and sometimes when we wager we get away for this kind of stuff and try to get to crafty. Andrew Luck is 11-1 after a loss and on the other side the Giants have won their last 6 game after a bye. None of those stats have anything to do with this game. The reason why I am taking the Colts is because the Giants have no running threat, no deep threat and they can’t really protect the QB. The Colts running backs are nothing to write home about when running the football, but they are excellent at protecting Luck when he throws the ball. This offensive line with the help of the backs are making sure Luck does not get sacked which means everything in this league. In this ever changing league you have to adjust when you handicap football games. The receivers for the Giants are young and don’t yet know how to sell a play to get the big penalties needed to extend drives. Great teams do this well. This Giants Offense is really limited in what they can do. On the other side the Colts and Andrew Luck throw the ball all over the field and they go for the homerun balls. This game reminds me a lot of the game we saw Thursday Night when the Saints went in and beat the Panthers. In that game Carolina was just so limited on what they could do while it was just a matter of time before Brees in a 60 minute game found his guys for scores. I think this is another under game, but the way the league throws penalties it is like slow torture when you take the under. Simply put, if the Giants can win this game with a rookie running back and receivers that don’t have much experience in this league then so be it. For me there is no reason to back these Giants in this spot. Andrew Luck leads the league in almost every offensive stat. Hilton is an incredible deep threat and Allen is coming up the ranks as a great tight end in this league. The Colts have more proven weapons and I just can’t see this Giants Pass Defense turning it around tonight and slowing this team down. Take Indianapolis.
OC Dooley
Blues / Rangers Over 5
Not only is tonight’s host injury-riddled with a defense that is now paper thin, the star goaltender of the Rangers Henrick Lundquist who helped lead the team to the Stanley Cup Finals during the summer will NOT be starting tonight. Lundquist was spectacular in the net back on Saturday when when New York’s offense was shutout in a 1-0 final verdict. After eight consecutive starts he is being given a much needed rest this evening reserve Cam Talbot will patrol in the net. In the one start that Talbot has been given this campaign he permitted FOUR goals so it is imperative the the Rangers respond offensively especially since they are facing a red hot opponent (St. Louis) who has tallied at least three goals 3 different times during a four-game win streak. For those with access to this evening’s contest keep an eye out for Vladimir Tarasenko of St. Louis who has FIVE goals in the past three games combined. Also keep an eye out for New York offensive star Rick Nash who had a pair of goals way back on opening night when the Rangers lost a 3-2 road contest at the Blues. The Rangers a paper-thin on defense as captain Ryan McDonagh has just been lost for the next month with a separated shoulder while defenseman John Moore (head hunting) is in the midst of serving a five-game suspension. Another New York defenseman Kevin Klein (foot) will miss at least the next couple of contests which as stated earlier puts the pressure on the offense to step up
Vegas Butcher
New York Giants +3.5
In the last 8 years with Coughlin in charge, the Giants are 7-1 SU after a BYE week. The Giants are also 6-3 ATS after 2+ consecutive losses in their last 9 games. Today, they are in such a scenario while at the same time being listed as a 3-point underdog at home. The Colts rank 31st defensively on the road this year and their 13.2 YPPT (Yards Per Point) allowed on the road is one of the worst marks in the league. This team has been able to compensate offensively of course, but even there they're been fairly turnover-prone lately. In their last 4 games they've had 4, 2, 2, 2 TO's in each. NY by comparison has only registered 7 TO's in their last 5 games. Giants under-performed @ PHI and @ DAL in their last two games but they've put up 30, 45, 30 points in the 3 games prior, against defenses that closely resembled Colts' mediocre unit. I think we'll see a very good game today with both teams scoring some points, but catching 3 points on a home team provides solid value here. My model has this one at 26-25 Giants, and I'll grab the FG tonight.
Denver Nuggets -6.5
Kings are on a b2b and playing their 3rd game in 4 nights here. They are coming off a big home win against Portland and followed that up with an emotional win @ LAC, as Collison faced his former team. Collison and Gay played 39 minutes, Thompson 37, and Cousins 34. The bench didn’t do much yesterday and I’m wondering if ‘fatigue’ could be an issue for the Kings tonight, especially playing in Denver. Nuggets rank 5th in pace so far as this team always looks to push the tempo, especially at home. They haven’t played well just yet, but do have better depth than the Kings, are more rested, and of course they’re at home.
Utah Jazz +9
Yesterday, the Clips got embarrassed as a 9.5 home favorite, losing to the Kings. Today, this team is on a b2b and playing their 4th game in 5 nights, a very tough spot to be in. They also have games against GSW, POR, and SAS on the horizon, potential ‘look ahead’ spots, though I doubt that would be the case after a loss. Clippers played Utah in the pre-season twice, losing by 13 on the road and winning by 4 at home. It seemed like the Jazz matched up pretty well against the Clips in those 2 games, especially the on in Staples Center where LA’s starters all played ‘regular season’ type of minutes. With the way Clippers are playing right now, there’s no reason to expect another close game tonight.
Andre Gomes
Boston Celtics +5 1st Half
I believe Boston has the right ingredients to cause problems to Dallas at the start of the game. Dallas is coming from a game against New Orleans's poor perimeter defense and they will now face a team that has a quite aggressive perimeter defense. If there is a problem with the Mavs is the fact that they are quite soft and the fired up Celtics, after a humiliating defeated at Houston should take advantage of that to catch Dallas by surprise tonight.
Dallas's perimeter game has been excellent, but I must say that they also faced some favorable match ups like Utah and New Orleans. Now against the much more aggressive Celtics, I expect Boston to have a good start of the game. I know that they didn't show that aggression on their game at Houston, but this is exactly why they will come fired up for tonight. Boston scored 62 and 60 points in the paint on their first two games of the season and in tonight's contest, only Chandler might offer some resistance near the basket. I believe the Celtics will play a very good first half tonight and so, I'll take them in here on a FIRST HALF bet!