Stephen Nover
Chicago at MILWAUKEE -3
Milwaukee has been one of the surprise teams in the NBA going 8-7 through its first 15 games.
The big reason for this has been the brilliant play of Brandon Jennings, who has been the best rookie during the first month of the season. Defenses, though, are really starting to key on Jennings, knowing he's the Bucks' only real scoring threat.
Sharpshooter Michael Redd is back on the shelf with a knee strain. Center Andrew Bogut is out, too. Bogut was Milwaukee's lone inside scoring threat. This puts all the pressure on young Jennings, who has made just 20 of 69 shots (29 percent) from the floor in the last four games, all Milwaukee losses.
Look for a motivated Derrick Rose to play Jennings tough.
The Bucks' defense has suffered, too, without Bogut. Milwaukee is giving up 105.5 points in its last four games.
Chicago has a strong history versus its nearby rival beating Milwaukee in seven of the past nine meetings. The Bulls are 7-3 at the Bradley Center. Since 2003-'04, the Bulls are 17-4 versus the Bucks.
The Bulls are still on their annual circus road trip. This marks their sixth consecutive away contest. But this isn't as bad as it looks from a situational standpoint.
Chicago's first five games on the trip were all on the West Coast. Now the Bulls are back in the Midwest, close to home. They are more rested than the Bucks having last played on Thursday.
Milwaukee, by contrast, is playing for the fourth time in six days. In addition to Bogut and Redd being out, the Bucks also could be missing unsung Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, a defensive specialist and member of their rotation who was starting before suffering a left foot strain.
4♦ BULLS
Chris Jordan
Memphis at UTAH -10
The Grizzlies were down in Los Angeles tangling with the Clippers last night, and eventually lost 98-88. Now they come up for a second helping on this road trip, on back-to-back nights no less, and will be out of sorts when facing the Jazz.
Utah is in the midst of a six-game home stand, and is in off two impressive wins over the Bulls and Trail Blazers, winning by a collective 35 points. The Jazz have taken days off in between during this home stand, so I'll have fresh legs on the court at all times, no doubt.
On the other hand, the Grizzlies will be playing their fourth road game in six nights after games at Phoenix, Portland and Los Angeles last night. It's no wonder they scored a mere 88 points last night, they were involved in up-tempo contests with the Suns and Blazers.
You really think they'll have their wind for tonight's contest in Salt Lake City?
Lay the chalk.
4♦ UTAH JAZZ
Drew Gordon
Indiana +2' at GOLDEN STATE
14-5 roll L19 Free Plays! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Pacers/Warriors match up.
Like most basketball match ups, the team that controls the boards and plays better defense, usually wins. This has been the key to betting the Pacers in particular, as they get crushed by teams like Dallas (who outrebounded them 54-33 and shut them down defensively), and yet easily beat this Golden State team the the last time they saw them (outrebounding Warriors 57-42, and took full advantage of their piss-poor defense). I expect the Pacers to maintain their edges on the glass and on defense, leading to another solid cover against the Warriors.
From a match up standpoint, anyone who follows this series knows that Danny Granger seemingly always brings his "A" game against the Warriors, averaging 38 ppg and 11 rpg in his L3 agains them! Not only that, but we saw Hibbert, Jones, and Hansbrough dominate the boards in their last meeting (along with Granger's 16 boards). The Warriors simply do not have the size to match up effectively with Indiana, and it'll show once again here tonight.
Finally, the Pacers are a rock-solid 8-2 ATS in their L10 meetings with Golden State! Coupled with the fact the Warriors are just 2-6 ATS in their L6 games as a favorite, and all of a sudden the road dog is looking quite attractive. One final note, the Pacers haven't played since Friday, giving them plenty of time to prep for this contest. In the end, Indiana delivers the cash, as they open their road trip with a razor sharp effort at the struggling Warriors tonight.
Take Indiana plus the points over Golden State in this NBA match up.
1♦ INDIANA
Tony Weston
Sure, we had to sweat out that Colts game, but Peyton Manning does what he does best and delivers us a strong winner.
I’m handing you another Comp Play winner tonight as I’m taking the Milwaukee Bucks at home against the visiting Chicago Bulls.
Milwaukee comes into tonight’s game having covered in 3 straight home games and having gone 6-2 ATS at home for the season.
Straight up, the Bucks are outscoring their opponents, on average, 105-98.4 at home.
Now they face a Bulls team that’s been horrible on the road this season, going 2-7 SU and ATS away from ChiTown and getting outscored, on average, 103.4-91.4.
Things won’t get any better for the Bulls, who are riding a 4-game SU and ATS losing streak.
3♦ BUCKS
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the Milwaukee Bucks. Getting great value on the Bucks at home tonight as this line should be at least 5. True, Milwaukee has dropped four straight after starting the season rather hot, but they played very well in their last home game Saturday night (a 100-98 loss to Orlando) and covered the number by 5. Injuries to Milwaukee's G Michael Redd and C Andrew Bogut have steered people clear of taking a chance on this team, but they haven't had their services to this point and yet the Bucks still have a winning record. And let's not forget the Bulls have plenty of injuries themselves. Hinrich and Thomas won't play and two other starters aren't 100%. Milwaukee is playing with triple-revenge, having dropped three straight to Chicago dating back to last year. Brandon Jennings is making an early name for himself as a possible Rookie of the Year, and as good as Derrick Rose is, I'm not sure he can stop Jennings. The Bulls, to put it mildly, suck on the road. They've won just twice in nine tries away from the United Center and have covered just 4 of 14 games overall. Bucks just need to win the game and they basically cover. Take the Bucks as your free play of the day.
3♦ BUCKS
LARRY NESS
Fla. International -10.5 vs Bowling Green
It has been a rough start for Isaiah Thomas at FIU. He opened the season having lost five of the team's top-six scorers from the year before. FIU has beaten Florida-Memorial and NC Central but the team's six losses have been by an average margin of 14.2 PPG. Bowling Green has a "name" coach as well, although Louis Orr is not quite so famous. Orr did an excellent job in his second season at BG last year, leading the team to an 11-5 conference mark, the school's first postseason bid since 2002 (lost a two-point game at Creighton, one of the NIT's four No. 1 seeds). Orr was rewarded with a contract extension in October but his Falcons are off to a poor 1-3 start, including an embarrassing 101-57 loss at Xavier. Thomas has built this team around JUCOs. The team's leading scorer is the 6-5 Roberts (15.3-7.3) and he's joined by fellow JUCO guards PG Gary (13.1-2.9-3.0), Weaver (12.7) and Watson (8.6-3.1).The 6-7 Otero (8.6-6.0) is back after missing most of LY with a torn ACL. As for BG, the frontcourt is a trio of seniors. The 6-9 Polk (10.8-5.8), the 6-6 Thomas (10.5-5.5) and the 6-9 Larson (8.5-4.0). The backcourt consists of junior Jakubowski (7.3-4.8 APG) and sophomore Brown 98.5). Off the bench is the 6-7 Marscall (6.0-4.0) and freshman Crawford (4.0). The Falcons have struggled so far because of their play offensively, averaging just 63.2 PPG. However, FIU should play the perfect foil in this one, as the not so-Golden Panthers have allowed 83.6 PPG. FIU is in the second-game of an eight-game road trip, not returning home until a 12/31 date with South Alabama. Expect BG to roll in this one.
Stan Lisowski
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Chicago at Milwaukee
Play Milwaukee -3
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Bulls have been on the road for 5 straight games, with the results of their last 4 being beats by 19, 24, 19, and 15 points. Chicago is 4-10 against the spread this year, only 2-7 on the road. Bucks are 5-1 as a home favorite, 4-2 ATS in that setup. Play Milwaukee!
Tom Freese
Philadelphia at Dallas
Play Philadelphia +11
Philadelphia is 15-4 ATS after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and they are 10-4 ATS their last 14 games as road dogs of 5.0 to 10.5. The Sixers are 4-1 ATS with no rest and they are 5-0 ATS their last 6 road games. Double-digit home favorites in the NBA are 22-34-1 ATS this year. Dallas is just 5-7 their last 12 games with the Sixers. The Mavericks are 7-16 ATS off an ATS loss where they allowed over 100 points.
Mr. Vegas Wins
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Patriots at Saints
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The Practically a pick em game with an undefeated team playing at home. New Orleans has been a juggernaut on offense, ranked No. 1 with an astounding 37 ppg, while the defense has been aggressive while forcing 20 turnovers. The Patriots have more flaws, with a weak running game and problems in the red zone, plus a poor road record. Play the Saints!
Scott Spreitzer
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Penn State at Virginia
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It's been a mixed bag for the Nittany Lions during their 4-2 start. While it is a winning jump out of the gate, the wins have not been too impressive and the losses have come against mediocre opposition. Despite guard Talor Battle's leadership and the team's experience, they have struggled at times in their first six games. They're nothing special on the glass, their assist-turnover ratio is almost even in their last three games, and if not for a huge advantage at the FT line, they may have struggled to win their last two games over Sacred Heart and rebuilding Davidson. Rebuilding is the term new UVA coach Tony Bennett doesn't want to hear around campus. The former Washington State coach wants to win...now. That's something he's used to after working a small miracle in Pullman. His Cavs are off to a 4-2 start and Bennett is getting solid play from Sylven Landesberg, who had 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists against Cleveland State. The Cavs also have the size to handle under-achieving Penn State on the boards. Virginia has never lost at home in the ACC/Big-10 Challenge, going a perfect 4-0. And Penn State has been a solid go-against in road games under coach DeChellis. They're 25-36 ATS as a dog or pk'm away from Happy Valley. It's a big early tilt for the new Cavs' coach and I believe he and his team are up to the task of beating and covering against the mediocre Nittany Lions.
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Play on: Virginia
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz
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This head to head series has been dominated by the Jazz, who have produced seven straight covers vs. the Grizzlies, but tonight we're thinking Over. Utah is 30-16 Over coming off a win by 15 or more points and 53-31 Over after scoring 105+ points. Memphis has gone Over in five of their last six games and are allowing 112 points per game on the road this year. The Jazz have gone Over in 10 straight home games when facing a bad team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400.
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Play on: Over
John Ryan
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Washington Capitals vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Play: Carolina Hurricanes
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Carolina as they take on Washington set to start at 7:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 156-152 for 50.6% winners since 2004. Play against any team against the money line off a road win by 1 goal and with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. The average play for this system has been a +139 dog. Washington is a solid 15-6-0-5 for 35 points and is off big 4-3 win at Montreal. AiS shows an 80% probability that Carolina will score 3 goals in this game. Note that they are 27-10 making 15.8 units over the past 3 seasons and 121-63 making 58.4 units since 1996 when they score 3 goals exact in past games. Take Carolina.
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Chicago Bulls vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Chicago Bulls +2
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Bulls as they take on Milwaukee set to start at 8:00 EST. AiS shows a 68% probability that Chicago will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 45-19 ATS for 70% winners since 2004. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 4 or more consecutive losses and is a tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 65-27 ATS for 71% winners since 1996. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after having lost 4 of their last 5 games and is a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days. Milwaukee not just tired but coming off a tough loss to Orlando by 2 points 100-98. Milwaukee is just 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) off a close home loss by 3 points or less since 1996. Take the Bulls.
Wunderdog
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Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Play: Tampa Bay Lightning
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The Colorado Avalanche went the final 16 games of last season without winning a game in regulation. What a surprise to see them off to a start that saw them losing just once in regulation over their first 13 games. There is an old saying that "water seeks its level,” and the Avalanche appear to be heading back in that direction. Their last 14 games show just three wins in regulation, and just one of those on the road. It might be tough to grab a win on the road vs. a Lightning team that has dropped just one all season in Tampa. Teams heading in opposite directions says the Lightning get this one.
LT Profits
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Colorado Avalanche @ Tampa Bay Lightning
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The Under is 15-6 in the last 21 Colorado Avalanche road games, and we look for that pattern to continue tonight when the Avs visit the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Colorado is a surprising 14-8-6 thus far, and most of their success has to do with an improved defense and good goaltending. The Avalanche were one of the worst defensive teams in the league last season, but they are allowing fewer than three goals per game this year, including a respectable 2.81 goals per game on the road.
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Their starting goaltender Craig Anderson owns 13 of the 14 team wins, and he has a 2.67 GAA and .918 save percentage. Anderson has also played well in three starts against the Lightning despite just a 1-1-1 record in those games, as he owns a nice 2.06 GAA against them.
The Lightning have also played great defense at home, where they are allowing an excellent 2.09 goals per contest in 11 games so far. Mike Smith is expected to get the start in goal, and he was excellent the last time he faced the Avalanche, stopping 34 shots in a tough-luck 2-1 shootout loss here in Tampa.
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Now this game may not quite be as low scoring as that last encounter, but we still envision a rather safe Under here.
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Pick: Avalanche/Lightning Under 5.5
MTi Sports
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Indiana Pacers at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Golden State Warriors
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The Warriors are 8-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) at home when facing a Eastern Conference team they lost to on the road in their first match-up of the season. Look for Golden St to gain revenge vs the Pacers.