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Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, November 30,2009

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TEDDY COVERS
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Fairfield @ Hofstra
PICK: Fairfield +7
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By the end of the ’08-’09 season, Fairfield was an injury riddled mess, yet they still finished with a winning record, earning their first trip to the MACC semifinals in the three year tenure of head coach Ed Cooley. This year, a healthy Stags squad has won four out of five to open up the season, their lone loss coming at Maryland.
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Fairfield has won back-2-back games on the road by double digit margins, beating American U by 16 and Howard by 21; corresponding with the return of leading scorer Yorel Hawkins (17 points per game) to the lineup. Anthony Johnson and Shimeek Johnson provide low post muscle and super frosh point guard Derek Needham has proven to be a capable distributor in early season play.
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The Stags hung tough against Hofstra last year, a five point game. The Pride just lost at home to Charlotte as 3.5 point favorites, and they failed to cover the number as eight point home chalk against Yale. As a team, Hofstra is shooting just 40% from the floor; a woeful 25% from three point range; not atypical of teams that lack any sort of dominant low post presence. Expect the Stags and the Pride to be in a real dogfight tonight, the SU winner not determined until the final minute of the game. 2* Take Fairfield.

 
Posted : November 30, 2009 2:05 pm
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Matt Fargo
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Penn State at Virginia
Prediction: Penn State
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The Big Ten/ACC Challenge tips off tonight and this game will be more entertaining than people think. Penn St. is coming off its NIT Championship from a season ago and arguably the best season in school history as it went 27-11 on the season but there is still some animosity as the Nittany Lions thought they should have been invited to the Big Dance. They are out to make up for it this season and despite the losses of big time players Jamelle Cornley and Stanley Pringle, there are pieces in place to get back into the NCAA Tournament window. This is a game it needs to win as a lack of quality wins were part of the reason that they were snubbed last season. Losses against UNC-Wilmington and Tulane will not help the r?m?ut if anything, it should provide some extra motivation for a quality victory. Talor Battle leads the team and he is one of the top guards in the Big Ten. He averaged 16.7 ppg last season and is up to 18.2 ppg this year and Penn St. will go as far as he takes them. I like the fact that he is the best player on the floor tonight albeit not by much as the Cavaliers do have a star of their own. Virginia is 4-2 at well including 3-0 at home but this is easily the first real home test of the season. Sophomore Sylven Landesberg was one of the top freshmen in the nation last season but take him out and there is not much else on the roster than can win games unlike the Nittany Lions whose frontcourt of David Jackson and Jeff Brooks is solid. Tony Bennett is the new head coach in Charlottesville as he comes in from Washington St. and these are the games that need to be faded. This is a brand new system and even Bennett has said that the transition will be difficult because the players simply are not used to it. Give him a couple years with the system in place and his players using it and this could be a team to look out for. Right now however, the consistency and cohesiveness just isn?t there early in the season and going up against a quality opponent. Penn St. is 17-1 ATS after playing three straight games as a favorite and that certainly bodes well here when receiving points. 3* Penn St. Nittany Lions

 
Posted : November 30, 2009 2:05 pm
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JR TIPS
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PACERS at WARRIORS
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The struggling Indiana Pacers are finally getting healthy as the Golden State Warriors are still trying to be healthy enough to have a full bench. Indiana looks for the season sweep of Golden State who are coming off its worst home loss in three seasons. Pacers forward Mike Dunleavy is back after being out due to an injury and hit 4 of 7 from the field and scored 13 points in 15 minutes Friday in a 113-92 loss to Dallas as the Pacers lost their fifth in six games Friday. Pacers leading scorer Danny Granger also returned to the lineup after missing Wednesday's 86-73 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers with a sprained medial collateral ligament in his left knee as he scored 20 points on 5 of 16 shooting versus the Mavericks and had 31 points and a career-high 16 rebounds in a 108-94 victory over Warriors on Nov. 11. Granger is averaging 38.0 points and 11.3 rebounds in his last three games against Golden State, including a career-high 42-point effort in the Pacers' last visit to Oracle Arena. Indiana looks to get off to a good start on its four-game western trip and the Warriors are trying to bounce back from Saturday's 130-97 loss to the visiting Los Angeles Lakers. Warriors coach Don Nelson isn't expected back until Thursday against Houston while leading scorer Monte Ellis was averaging 37.7 points on 53.7 percent shooting in his previous three games before the blowout to the lakers Friday. The Pacers outrebounded Golden State 57-42 in their last matchup as with rookie Tyler Hansbrough grabbing a season-high eight. The Pacers are getting healthy while the warriors seem to be wearing down with all their injuries. Indiana will look to get off to a good start on the first game of their 4-game road trip as Golden State will have problems all night rebouding against the Pacers who dominated them in the first game on the boards. The healthy Pacers are a strong underdog tonight against the wounded Warriors with no head coach.
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TAKE PACERS +2

 
Posted : November 30, 2009 2:06 pm
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GoodFella

CHI +2.5 vs MIL

This is the Bulls final game on their annual "circus roadie" and they have dropped the previous 4 games on this trip. If we look closer at WHO the Bulls have played on this trip- we see that have played 4 of the better teams in the NBA; Lakers, Denver, Portland & Utah (who are always incredibly tough to beat at home). Chicago has been off the last 3 days & I look for them to be VERY motivated to get this last (VERY WINNABLE) game vs the Bucks tonight, and notch 1 win on this trip, as this is clearly the most winnable game of the 5. Milwaukee has lost 4 straight games as well, and are coming off a tough 2 pt home loss vs Orlando in their last game. I really believe this Bucks team was overachieving early on, and now are falling back to being the below average ballclub they are. I really like the Bulls to win this game outright, so the +2.5 is a bonus. Grab the points with the Bulls tonight and look for the outright win here.

 
Posted : November 30, 2009 3:10 pm
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Lenny Del Genio

UTA -10 vs MEM

Play on Utah at 9:05 ET. We used this very situation with a free play on Saturday when the Jazz were hosting a Blazers team playing with no rest. The result? A 108-92 win and cover by Utah. Now they play host to a Memphis team that is off one of the most shocking fourth quarters we've seen in recent NBA history as they were outscored 33-7 by the Clippers, losing a 16-point lead and the cover. The Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS the last seven games in this series. Take Utah.

 
Posted : November 30, 2009 4:02 pm
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Insider Angles

The Golden State Warriors had been on a 6-1 run against the spread with the lone loss being by just half a point before they were blown out by the Lakers Saturday, and we look for an undervalued Warriors team to bounce back at home Monday vs. the Indiana Pacers.

Golden State may be just 5-10 straight up this young season, but they have a winning 8-7 ATS mark, and before that Lakers debacle, they had won their previous home game by 14 points over an excellent Portland Trail Blazers team. The Pacers represent a drastic drop in class from the Western Conference powerhouses the Warriors have been facing, and when you add in home court advantage, they should win this game safely.

Indiana has been sputtering of late, losing five of their last six games, and the lone win was an ugly 86-73 triumph over the pathetic Los Angeles Clippers. The Pacers are 2-3 on the road this season, but those two wins came vs. the winless New Jersey Nets and another awful team in the New York Knicks. Granted, they did beat these Warriors 108-94 in Indiana on November 11, but that should work against them here, as it gives Golden State the added motivation of revenge.

Look for Golden State to avenge that loss at Indianapolis here in Oakland Monday night.

Pick: Warriors -1.5

 
Posted : November 30, 2009 4:06 pm
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Craig Trapp

Indiana Pacers vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Indiana Pacers +126

Two bad teams are squaring off tonight in California. The big difference between these teams is that the Pacers are getting healthy with the return of Dunleavy and Grainger tonight verse a banged up Golden State team. Also a really good ATS trend play as IND is 8-2 ATS the last 10 games in this series. Grainger loves playing against the GS Warriors averaging 38 points the last 3 games verse them. GS looks also to be missing head coach Don Nelson again tonight. Monte Ellis has been very upset about the direction of the team and has made it very clear that he wants to be traded. This GS team is a train wreck, verse a IND team that is yound and looking like they are ready to break out. This m/l is a gift!

 
Posted : November 30, 2009 5:44 pm
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Freddy Wills

Chicago Bulls vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Bulls +3

I'm going with the Bulls here as they are of a few days rest which was much needed as this will be their 6th road game on this road trip. I think they'll the line is a bit off mainly because both teams have lost 4 straight games and the favorite goes to the home team, but the Bulls had probably the toughest road trip I have seen in a while. In their last 4 games they were @Lakers, @Nuggets, @Blazers, and @Jazz. Two games at high elevation and then the other two against two of the best home teams from a year ago. They stood no chance to win those games in my opinion. The Bulls are 11-2 in their last 13 match ups with the Bucks and while Brandon Jennings has been incredible and was the main reason why this team held it close against the Bulls in a loss on 11/3 83-81 it was Jennings playing well. Defenses have picked up on Jennings and in his last 4 games he's averaging just 14ppg and 29%FG. Look for that trend to continue as the Bulls are just too physical for the Bucks down low and they will get to the line and out rebound the Bucks.

 
Posted : November 30, 2009 5:45 pm
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Jack Jones

Indiana Pacers vs. Golden State Warriors
Pick: Golden State Warriors -2

The Warriors are showing excellent value as a small home favorite Monday against the 6-8 Indiana Pacers, who are allowing 103.8 points/game on the road this season. The Warriors are putting up 110.2 points/game at home this year where they have played solid basketball. Coming off a bad loss to the Lakers, I look for the Warriors to rebound. Golden State is 11-2 ATS in home games after allowing 120 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5 points, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog overall. The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Golden State is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. Eastern Conference. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the favorite is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Take the Warriors.

 
Posted : November 30, 2009 5:46 pm
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