Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, November 4

Mike O'ConnorFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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GREEN BAY (-10.5) 34 Chicago 18FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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On a four game win streak, the Packers now sit atop the NFL North with a 5-2 record and a half game lead on Detroit. Last week against the Vikings and without several of his receiving options available, Aaron Rodgers continued his stellar play by completing 24 of 29 passes for 282 yards and 9.1 yps. With a ground game this year, the Packers offense is balanced and very difficult to defend. This week they will be facing a Bears defense that has played well below average and will have matchup problems as they attempt to defend the Packers offensive attack. Jay Cutler had played well so far this year in the new scheme with an upgraded offensive line but was knocked out of the Redskins game and gave way to back up Josh McCown and the offense didn’t miss a beat. Now that he has had two weeks to prepare and get 1st team reps I expect him to play well. I just don’t believe the Bears will be able to keep up with the Packers here as Green Bay sports the much better defense and have been very good against the run (allowing 84 yards at 3.8 ypc to teams that gain 108 yards at 4.2 ypc). If the Bears don’t have balance with the run game it will be very difficult for McCown to have a lot of success. My model favors Green Bay by 13.3 points and the Packers qualify in 70-39-4 and 40-19-2 situations. If the line drops below 10, a 274-168-14 situation that plays on the Packers will also be triggered. I like the Packers minus the points.

Randall The HandleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Bears (4-2) at Packers (5-2)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Could have been a good Monday nighter but the Bears are banged up with its most significant injury to QB Jay Cutler. It’s never easy to win at Lambeau but with Chicago having an extra week to get Josh McCown ready and with the familiarity factor between these two, there are just too many points being offered here. Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is a freak as he seems to get his numbers no matter who he is throwing to. But backups tend to make mistakes and these Bears thrive on that. Chicago’s coaching staff knows it can’t win a shootout but if they run the ball and take advantage of any Green Bay miscues, they can keep it close. We’ll count on that. TAKING: BEARS +11

Doug Upstone

Anaheim Ducks vs. NY Rangers
Play: Anaheim Ducks -113

Anaheim concludes it's long eight game road trip tonight in Madison Square Garden vs the Rangers. Both teams have been playing good hockey, especially Anaheim who is 4-0-1 their last five. The one area holding this team back from being considered one of the better teams in the league has been the power play, and no doubt they will improve on their league worst 6.9 goal percentage in that area, just a matter of when. Should be a good game, but take the better team with a very cheap price. Play the Ducks.

Steve Janus

Golden State Warriors vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Golden State Warriors -7

The 76ers have been the biggest surprise early on this season, but even with their success I still believe this is one of the worst teams in the league. Philadelphia has had to rally from double-digit deficits in each of their last two games, including a 20-point rally against the Bulls. That simply isn't going to continue. Golden State isn't going to be caught off-guard by the 76ers and I look for them to come out and put a beating on the home team. There's a reason oddsmakers have listed Philadelphia as a 7-point home dog. I'm showing 60% of the public on the 76ers, which only makes me feel that much stronger about the Warriors in this spot. Golden State isn't as strong on the road as they are at home, but the difference in talent in this one is pretty clear-cut.

Rob Vinciletti

Minnesota vs. Cleveland
Play: Over 195½

This game fits a nice totals system from the database that plays to the over for road dogs of 4 or less points like Minnesota that have no rest and are off a road game where they scored 90 or more also as a road dog of 4 or less, vs an opponent like Cleveland that played on the road and scored 90 or less. These games have played over 16 of 21 times since 1995. The Cavaliers have shot under 40% the last 2 games and should improve that number tonight against a Minnesota team off a game in NY with no rest. The Cavs have played over in 14 of 16 games if they went under in 3 or more straight. Minnesota has pled over in 8 of 12 on the road with no rest off a road game. Look for this one to go over the total tonight.

Jim Feist

Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Clippers
Pick: Houston Rockets

We had a straight-up dog winner last night in the NBA with the T'Wolves over the Knicks. Tonight we come right back to the NBA with the Rockets at the Clippers. Houston puts a perfect 3-0 record on the line tonight in LA. The Rockets are 2-0-1 ATS after a cover at Utah on Saturday, 104-93. The Rockets added Dwight Howard in the offseason and he's flourished thus far. Howard is averaging 15 points and 17 rebounds in his first three games. He's also tamed with 7-foot Omer Asik which gives the Rockets a formidable front court and will pose problems tonight for Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. The Clippers took their cross-town rivals a little light in the season opener, losing to the Lakers, 116-113. However, the Clips rebounded with a home win over the Warriors and then a road win at Sacramento, 110-101. Houston has had great success at LA, goint 15-4 ATS in the last 19 trips to play the Clippers. I'm sticking with the dog here tonight. I look for Howard and Asik to give problems to the Clippers all night. Take the points again with your free play on the Rockets.

Dave Cokin

Minnesota vs. Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -2

The Timberwolves are off to great start, winning three in a row out of the gate including Sunday’s win against the Knicks. Minnesota will look to maintain their impressive form tonight with a stop in Cleveland.

The Wolves are obviously thrilled to have Kevin Love back in good health, and he’s off to a huge start. Old pro Kevin Martin is drilling bombs, Nikola Pekovic is averaging nearly a double double, and Ricky Rubio is dishing out dimes while ballhawking on defense. Corey Brewer has been effective as well, while Jose Barea and improving Derek Williams are contributing valuable second unit minutes. I don’t think there’s a great deal beyond the first seven though, so it’ll be interesting to see how this team fares in the back end of two games in two nights situations.

That last note is of some significance here. It’s the second of back to back road games for Minnesota, and it’s been quite some time since this squad grabbed a sweep in this scenario. They have not done so since all the way back in February 2011, dropping seven straight subsequently in this identical situation.

As for the Cavaliers, they’re 1-2 and their guard play has been a sore point so far this season. This is a surprise as the Cleveland backcourt features the dynamic Kyrie Irving. So far, not so good for Irving, but given his skill set, it’s difficult to envision the slump lasting much longer. Backcourt mate Dion Waiters is off to a rocky start as well.

Up front, Tristan Thompson looks like he’s got a real shot to breakout this season. Anderson Varejao is still shaking off the rust and will never be the most aesthetically pleasing guy to watch, but he’s tough and effective. Jarrett Jack has been solid so far as has CJ Miles. The Cavs need more production per minute out of the bench performers. Earl Clark and Alonzo Gee have been pretty brutal so far. Top pick Anthony Bennett has been terrible and his minutes need to be reduced until he shows at least a little improvement.

I don’t think there’s much question that right at the moment, the Timberwolves are the better team here. But the NBA is a schedule driven league, and that’s the key for me tonight. I’m expecting Irving to come out determined to get rolling tonight, and this is a spot where Minnesota has struggled. With the number as short as it is, I’m taking my chances with the Cavaliers tonight.

John Ryan

Golden State Warriors at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers

The wins total at most Vegas strip books reflected that the 76ers would be one of the worst NBA teams in the league. It was for good reason with the youngest average team, a rookie at PG, and their Center Noel rehabbing possibly for the entire season. How things have changed in Philadelphia swiftly. I am off to a 3-0 ATS NBA start and 2-of-the-3 winners have been on the 76ers when they played the Heat and won SU as 12 point dogs, and when they defeated the Wizards SU as 9 1/2 point dogs. I have now personally seen Michael Carter-Williams play and his length, speed, quickness, and NBA IQ are off the charts and very real. This is no fluke and like Magic Johnson, Jordan, Kobe, and LeBron, he is immediately making all of his teammates better when he is running the offense. Then there is his defense, where he set an NBA first game record with 9 steals and then DOMINATED D Rose in the 20 point comeback win over the Bulls. So, there will be no doubt growing pains with this very young team. They run the floor nearly every possession and the offense just flows, and they are very hard to stop with the majority of shots getting to the rim. The simulator shows a high probability that the 87ers will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Turnovers will be a big part of tonight's game. The SIM projects that the 76ers will have at least three less turnovers than GS. In past games, the 76ers are 15-4 ATS over the past three seasons, when they have had three or fewer turnovers than the opponent. The public has yet to recognize the strength of this 76er team, so take advantage of it while it lasts. With that said, I am sure the public sentiment pendulum will swing to the other extreme and give us a few opportunities to play against the 76ers as well. For tonight, take the 76ers plus the points.

Jimmy Boyd

Cleveland Cavaliers -2

Minnesota is playing in their second straight road game, and they are without rest after facing the New York Knicks last night. The Cavaliers come into this game with a night off, and I expect them to be a lot more efficient than Minnesota in this game. This is the first back-to-back situation the Timberwolves have played in this season.

In Minnesota's only road game they allowed 100 points, but the overall defensive numbers are not far behind at 98.7 points per game allowed. The Cavaliers will be at home in this matchup, and have a stingy defense that has given up just 91 points per game through the first three games of the season. Home court advantage is big in Cleveland, and it led them to a four point win over Brooklyn in the season opener. I expect a similar result tonight against a Timberwolves team that has quickly become overrated by the oddsmakers.

Jack Jones

Philadelphia 76ers +7

The Philadelphia 76ers continue to get no love from oddsmakers despite their 3-0 start. I still believe there is value in backing this team tonight as a 7-point home underdog to the Golden State Warriors.

It's not like Philadelphia is beating weak opponents, either. It has home wins over the defending champion Miami Heat AND the Chicago Bulls, who are expected to give the Heat a run for their money in the East with Derrick Rose back. They also have a solid road win over an improved Washington team.

Rookie point guard Michael Carter-Williams has been sensational as he leads a Philadelphia offense that is putting up 110.0 points per game on 51.2 percent shooting. Golden State allowed 126 points to the Los Angeles Clippers in its lone road game this season, which resulted in an 11-point loss.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won nine of the last 11 meetings. Dating back further, the home team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Golden State is 0-6 ATS in its last six meetings in Philadelphia. Bet the 76ers Monday.

Jeff Alexander

Golden State Warriors -7

This is a letdown spot for the 3-0 76ers, who erased a 20-point deficit against the Bulls to improve to 3-0. Playing against November home underdogs that are coming off a a close home win of 3 points or less has resulted in a 27-5 ATS record since 1996. This system is an unbeaten 5-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. The 76ers have benefited from shooting a high percentage, but now they are up against a team that has held two of its three opponents below 40% shooting. I believe it will also be difficult for Philly to keep pace with a Golden State squad that leads the NBA in field goal percentage and 3-point field goal percentage because the 76ers haven't been very sound defensively. The Warriors are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. The 76ers are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 versus Western Conference foes.

Dave Price

LA Clippers -5

Since opening the season with a dud against the Lakers, the Clippers have responded with back-to-back impressive wins over the Warriors and Kings. Those victories bode well for us as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off two consecutive wins against division rivals are 34-11 ATS the last five seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have won by an average of 9.5 points. The Clippers have a couple advantages tonight. First off, they are at home where they went 32-9 last season. It's also worth noting that they are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. Secondly, they have had two full days to rest their legs and game plan for the Rockets. Houston is playing its second road game in three days and was extremely fortunate to escape its last one with a "W" as it trailed by 19 points to the Jazz in that contest. The Rockets ended up winning that one by 11 points to cover the spread, but they are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a cover and 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Clippers are 5-1 in the last six meetings with the five wins coming by 10.4 points on average. Lay the points.

Joe Gavazzi

Green Bay Packers -10

Anyone who tracks the correlation between TO margin and ATS records, understands that the Chicago Bears +9 net TO margin should translate into far better than the 1-5 ATS mark they bring to this MNF division rivalry. In short, the projection for Chicago's ATS success is limited once TOs begin to even out. HC Trestman has proven to be an offensive guru as advertised. The Bears average 30 PPG on offense on a decent 368 yards. Though QB Cutler is replaced by QB McCown, not sure there is much drop off. The major issue for the Bears is a defense that allows 29 PPG, 391 yards and 6.4 YP Play, that latter number among the worst in the NFL. Prior to their bye week, Chicago was losing 41-45 at Washington, a high-scoring defeat that dropped the Bears to 3-8 ATS as road dog. Not usually one to fancy laying double digits in division rivalries, one must make an exception with Green Bay. Included in their 22-7 ATS mark on this field, is 7 consecutive home covers vs. division rivals. It has been "next man up" for the Packers this year with LT Bakhtiari and WR Boykin filling in admirably for their injured counterparts. Key addition has been RB Lacy who has balanced the offense with a ground game that runs at an average of 30 times per game for 141/4.8, outrushing opponents by an average of 57 YPG. Put that running game in the mix with QB Rogers, who leads a GB passing game that averages 8.4 YPA, and you see why the Packers are leading the league at 6.7 YP Play. No surprise that Chicago is 6-1 OVER this season, as their games average 59 PPG. High-scoring GB offense only too happy to oblige.

Andre Gomes

Memphis Grizzlies -11.5

Unlike some lowly teams that are surprising the league early on the season, Boston is fulfilling the expectations in being poor this season. I took the Over on their game yesterday, as I expected Detroit's frontcourt to have a mega edge over Boston's poor frontcourt and that happened, as the Pistons scored 54 points in the paint, while Josh Smith, Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond had a combined of 21-42 (50%) FG and 29 rebounds, crushing the Celtics on the boards battle. In theory, Boston would have the edge against Detroit's bad perimeter defense, especially considering that the Pistons' starting backcourt is formed by Chauncey Billups and Will Bynum, but that didn't happen. In fact, Boston struggled terribly on the perimeter and couldn't even hold on to the ball with 24 turnovers committed!

Three games later, the Celtics have just 43 assists for 63 turnovers! That's an average of 14.3 assists per game versus 21.0 turnovers per game! These problems will certainly continue tonight, as Memphis's frontcourt will dominate like Detroit did last night with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph dominating down low, while the Celtics's terrible ball handling will be exposed by the Grizzlies' good ball pressure defense that had 10 and 12 steals on their last two games. Memphis has been having some natural issues on offense early on the season, as they are implementing a new system, but they are also struggling on defense in stopping opposing guards to penetrate and attack the rim. But that's something that won't be explored tonight by Boston, as they don't have players to explore this area like Tony Parker or Monta Ellis did in the Grizzlies' previous games. So, Memphis's defense will just have to pack the paint tonight and let Boston continuously miss their jump shots, as they are shooting just 10-45 3pts so far on this season. Therefore, we have every condition for an easy win for Memphis tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.