Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday November, 5

Chris Elliott

Indiana vs. San Antonio
Pick: San Antonio

The Pacers are 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS and 1-1 SU on the road with a 2 point win at Toronto and a 1 point loss at Charlotte. The Spurs at AT&T Center is a completely different beast!

The Pacers leader and best player Danny Granger is sidelined with a knee injury. His offensive and defensive presence will be missed as he is considered one of the better 2 way players in the league. The small forward has had an excellent 7 year career averaging 18.2 PPG, 5.2 REB, 2.0 Ast, 0.9 Blk, 1.0 steals and 2.0 TOs. Injuries have plagued the star as Granger has missed games in 4 straight seasons. Veteran PF David West will lead the charge but could be in for a long day matched up with Tim Duncan and the Spurs physical front court that includes 270 pound DeJuan Blair.

The Spurs are 3-0 SU, 1-1-1 ATS and 2-0 at home with a 10 point victory over tough Utah and a 2 point win over the defending Western Conference champion Thunder. Although the Pacers are young and talented, they are over matched in SA. Duncan looks fresh with back to back 20 point games and strong defense while Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are the veteran catalysts to a dynamic offense that finished 2nd in the NBA last season scoring 103.7 PPG. The defense wasn't too bad either giving up 96.5 PPG for a net differential of +7.2 PPG.

The Spurs have absolutely owned the Pacers at home with a record of 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games, winning by an average margin of 9.8 PPG.

Take the Spurs to win this game ATS in a route!

Matt Fargo

Indiana vs. San Antonio
Pick: Indiana

The Spurs are off to a 3-0 start and despite having some incredible teams in the past, they have never started a season 4-0. they hare laying a big number tonight which signals a game they should definitely win but a loss here is far from out of the question. While the 3-0 start is impressive, the way San Antonio has accomplished is not. In their last game, they blew an 18-point lead at the half but finished with a big fourth quarter to pull out the win. In the first two games, San Antonio had to come from behind late both times and won those games by just six points combined. San Antonio has won the last nine meetings in this series but that streak could easily be ended tonight. Indiana is off to a 2-1 start despite missing the services of Danny Granger and it should be 3-0 but lost by a point in Charlotte after D.J. Augustin missed a three-pointer at the buzzer. Even with no Granger in the lineup, this is a very solid team still as they are efficient, a great rebounding team and very solid defensively. The Pacers have yet to allow more than 91 points in regulation and a low scoring game here would again be in their favor as well as our favor considering the amount of points we are getting. Indiana falls into a great situation here as we play against home teams that averaged 98 or more ppg last season and are coming off a game where 205 or more points were scored. This situation is 40-14 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1996. Indiana meanwhile is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 games after two straight games outrebounding opponent by 10 or more. The Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game and Indiana is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games when its opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

David Chan

Cleveland vs. L.A. Clippers
Pick: Under

The Cavs are coming off a 105-102 loss to the Bucks on Saturday.

Kyrie Irving had 27 points.

Note that dating back to last season, Cleveland has seen the total go "under" the posted number in nine of its last 17 as a road dog in the 9.5 to 12-point range.

LA is coming off a 114-110 loss to the Warriors on Saturday. Jamal Crawford had 20 points. Chris Paul had a season-high 27.

Blake Griffin had 19 points and 11 boards.

Note that dating back to last year that LA has seen the total go "under" the number in 11 of 17 after playing to three or more consecutive "overs".

Cleveland took the only meeting last season 95-92, and I'm expecting a similar final score this time around, as each team plays with a concerted effort on the defensive end, after both stumbled in their previous outing.

Consider a second look at the "under" here!

Jimmy Boyd

San Antonio Spurs -8

The Pacers are 2-1 and somewhat fortunate to be so. They have gotten all they've wanted and more in each of their games against the Raptors, Bobcats and Kings. Now, they take a big step up in competition against the 3-0 Spurs, who showed off their strong early form with a win over the reigning Western Conference champion Thunder.

The Spurs have been a tremendous investment. They are 41-17-5 ATS in their last 63 games overall, 33-15-3 ATS in their last 51 home games and 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 versus the Eastern Conference.

The home team has been the play in this series as it is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Pacers are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings in San Antonio. Lay the points.

Rob Vinciletti

Phoenix Suns vs. Miami Heat
Play: Miami Heat

The Heat may have the bulls eye on their back. However in some games it wont make much of a difference. Tonight is one of those games. Miami will be home for the Phoenix Suns team that was just blown our by 21 points. Home favorites of -10 or higher with 1 day of rest off a home game where they scored 110 or more as a favorite are 12-0 straight up and have covered in 8 of those games, vs an opponent that scored 90 or more on the road with a +3 to -3 line. Look for Miami to win and get the cover tonight.

Jim Feist

Pacers at Spurs
Pick Over

The Indiana Pacers started the season with a 2-1 record, but had a bad loss in game two at Charlotte, 89-90 as 6 1/2 point road favorites. And the Pacers will also have to make due without 6-foot-8 forward Danny Granger who is out indefinitely with a knee problem. The Pacers will now take on undefeated San Antonio. Indiana hasn't done very well in Texas, going 2-6 in their last eight trips to San Antonio. The over has been the best play in this series with 14 of the last 19 meetings going OVER and seven of the last 10 in San Antonio going OVER. The Spurs (3-0 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) opened with a win at New Orleans and then a big win at home over Oklahoma City before beating Utah last time out, 110-100. Tonight's game will conclude a 3-game home stint for the Spurs as they head out west for a four-game road swing. The Spurs have been able to score well in this series at home and I don't see that changing here on Monday. Take the OVER.

Greg Daraban

Portland Trailblazers at Dallas Mavericks
Pick: Portland Trailblazers

Both teams come in at 2-1. Both teams already own wins over the Lakers. No Dirk right he is out. Portland has cover 3 straight vs the Mavs. Portland covers in Big D.

Dave Cokin

New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers
Pick: Philadelphia 76ers

Nothing complicated here. Quick turnaround revenge spot for Philly, and they were substantially outplayed on Sunday. I'll look for the rapid rebound with the 76ers minus the points.

SPORTS WAGERS

NEW ORLEANS -3 +108 over Philadelphia

Some had these two pegged to meet for the NFC Championship. That ain’t happenin’. The Eagles are a tough sell. The team is in turmoil. They’ve won three games by a combined four points and have scored 19 points or less in five of their past seven. Changes are coming for the Eagles. It’s inevitable and what usually precedes those changes are bad losses. Both Michael Vick and coach Andy Reid have overstayed their welcome. Vick starts here but may be replaced by Nick Foles if he cannot sustain drives or hold onto the ball.

Times are tough in the Big Easy but they figure to get better as several players and personnel return. The Saints are likely to respond with a "stand up and fight" game after getting blasted so badly in Denver in another prime timer last week. We all know the Saints can score points and lots of them. The defense has to step up tonight. They’ve been a complete embarrassment thus far. They get a great opportunity here to stop the bleeding against a struggling offense and a struggling team that is on the verge of hitting rock bottom. The Saints have issues but prefer theirs over their guest’s.

SAN ANTONIO -8 -108 over Indiana

The Pacers look rather appealing taking back eight points but a close look reveals otherwise. Last season, the Pacers were 28th in 2-point shooting percentage, ahead of only Cleveland and Charlotte. Most folks don't realize how bad Indiana's bench was and how much it held the Pacers back, especially in the playoffs. Consider that the four-man pairing of David West, Paul George, Danny Granger and Roy Hibbert outscored opponents by 259 points. The rest of the time Indy was -41. Every bench player had a negative plus-minus and off-season moves did not improve the situation. Also consider that Granger is out and that defensive rebounding was well below the league average.

Indy is 2-1 after three close games. They beat Toronto on the road by a bucket and barely beat Sacramento at home. Against Charlotte on the road on Friday, they lost, allowing the Bobcats to snap a 23-game losing streak. Three games against Toronto, Charlotte and Sac does not prepare you well to play one the league’s best.

The Spurs are 3-0 after wins against New Orleans, OKC and Utah, the latter by 10. They were a 7½-point favorite over Utah and now they’re a bigger favorite over a perceived East contender. What that tells us is that Indy’s serious flaws from a year ago are worse and that the battle-tested Spurs will expose them even more.

Joe Gavazzi

Golden State +2

The Kings return to their home court for their home opener after a 0-3 SU road start. Can you really take any team seriously if they play in "Sleep Train Arena". It makes sense the Kings have one of the worst home records in the League. In the last 3 years they are 48-67 ATS on this court including 14-19 ATS LY. Golden is one of the most improved teams in the League with the addition of Bogut and Ezeli up front, and Jack and Landry on the perimeter. These 4 are meshing well enough with the existing core to have recorded a pair of road wins already at the Clippers and Suns.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

POWER ANGLE PLAY

New Orleans/ Philadelphia Under 52: Boy I know Ill take some heat about this pick, but if the over is a forgone conclusion then why isn't the line higher, like last weeks Denver game, which saw 55 as the OU line? 78% of the public on the Over yet the game came down a half a point. Hmmmmmm. Anyway we have an Eagles team that has struggled at times on defense and that prompted them to fire Juan Castillo in favor of Pat Bowles. Now they did struggle last week vs Atlanta, but with another week under his system I feel they will be much better this week. This is a team with plenty of defensive talent and it should show this week. Now can you tell me who the MVP of this Saints offense is? I would have to say Darren Sproles. Last week he got injured pretty early in the Denver game and the Saints had their worst offensive out put of the year. Just look how the San Diego offense has sputtered once he left. This guy is important and is the leading receiver on this team, plus he is their KR and PR and he has set them up with pretty good field position most of the time. Take that security blanket away from Brees and he could struggle just like Rivers has. I know that the Saints defense is the worst in league, but i don't look for the Eagles to get many big shots on them. The Eagles OL just doesn't give their WR's enough time to get down field for many explosive plays. I really look for Philly to use the run game allot to take pressure off of Vick and to keep that Saints offense on the sidelines and that should run plenty of clock. I also know that Vick turns the ball over plenty, but that also hasn't led to allot of points for their opponents as the Eagles have allowed just 22.1 ppg on the year. Allot of Vicks TO's are in the redzone and that then means that the Eagles don't score and their opponent has to then drive the length of the field. I really expect this one in the low to mid 40's and not in the 50's. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- New Orleans is 12-1 UNDER as home faves of 12 or less off BB games and are facing a .400 or better team.

Sean Higgs

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: New Orleans Saints

Listen, normally I would probably be on the dogs here as I don't like home teams laying less than 3. But I had a Top 10* on the Eagles last week out of their bye and they promptly got blitzed by the Falcons. I thought this team would respond for their coach. The sad fact is that it looks like Andy Reid has lost this team. He has clearly lost Vick who is a turnover machine and is looking to basically get out playing if I am reading some of his quotes correctly. Saints 13-3 ATS last 16 at home and 4-1 ATS last 5 on Monday Night.

NFL Betting Picks

New Orleans Saints -3.5

Unfortunately we got this play at a bad number as money has come in on the Eagles, but I still think we have a winning pick here tonight. Both of these teams have underachieved so far this year, but they have time to re-group and make a push for the playoffs. The Philadelphia Eagles are 3-4 overall and 1-2 on the road. They have lost three straight games and 4 of their last 5. In fact their 3 wins have come by a combined 4 points against the Giants and Ravens at home and Browns on the road. Losses have come against Arizona, Pittsburgh, Detroit and Atlanta. New Orleans is just 2-5 on the year and 1-2 at home this season. They started the season off losing 4 straight, and have since won 2 of their last 3. Their most recent was a 20 point loss in Denver against a good team led by Peyton Manning. Their two wins came in Tampa Bay and at home vs San Diego. The Saints problems come from their defense, which is ranked dead last in the NFL this season. They are giving up 30.9 points against per game, compared to the Eagles who give up 22.1 points against per game. Offensively it is a different story though, as the Saints rank 5th overall and are averaging 27.1 points per game, while the Eagles rank 14th overall but are only scoring 17.1 points per game (28th). The number one reason for liking the Saints tonight comes down to the most important position on the field - the quarterback. Drew Brees has had better years, but he has still been very solid completing 59.7% of his passes for 2,310 yards, 20 TDs and 8 INTs for a 93.0 QB Rating. On the other hand Michael Vick has been plain bad this year, completing 59% of his passes for 1,823 yards but just 9 TDs to 8 INTs for a 78.6 QB Rating. He has been sacked 20 times and has already fumbled 9 times (losing 5 of those). Take note that the Eagles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs a team with a losing record, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss, and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 vs NFC opponents. The Saints are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games, 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games on fieldturf, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs NFC opponents, and 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up loss. Drew Brees has lead the offense to an average of 29 points per game at home this year, and he is extremely tough to beat at the Superdome. Despite their 3 wins coming from a combined 4 points the Eagles are still getting a lot of respect, which I don't think they deserve. Take the Saints to win and cover at home in this Prime Time showdown.

Bruce Marshall

Minnesota vs. Brooklyn
Pick: Brooklyn

After working out the kinks in long-awaited (and eventually delayed) opener at the new Barclays Center in Brooklyn, the Nets should be a bit less distracted tonight when hosting the T-wolves. Brooklyn was enocuraged by several developments in Saturday's opening win, espeically 27 points from C Brook Lopez and the deubt of the new Deron Williams-Joe Johnson backcourt that combined for 33 points and 13 assists vs. the Raptors. Meanwhile, Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love are still out for Minnesota, and now J,J. Barea looks to be less than 100% for tonight. T-wolves not hitting Brooklyn with much momentum, either, after Sunday's lopsided 105-86 loss at Toronto.