Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, November 7

SPORTS WAGERS

Chicago +8 over PHILADELPHIA

We should thank the Cowboys for this one. Think about it. What would this line have been prior to Philly’s Sunday night dismantling of the enigmatic Cowboys? Four? Maybe five? Now we’re being handed a slew of extra points with a rested Bears team that had won two-straight and appeared quite solid in doing so. Chicago’s Cover-2 defensive scheme and strong linebacking corps will not allow receivers to roam freely as they did against Dallas. Philadelphia’s defense has been susceptible to top-tier running backs and none is more versatile than Chicago’s Matt Forte. This is a huge overreaction to the “Dream Team” finally getting off the mattress and putting a whipping on somebody. Not that the Bears need any more motivation but this line is a big insult to them and you can be damn sure they’ll have a response. This is a ridiculous line based on one strong win by Philadelphia and an upset would not surprise one bit. Play: Chicago +8 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

David Chan

New York Islanders @ Boston Bruins
PICK: Boston Bruins

I bet value where I see it and expect the Bruins to maul the visiting New York Islanders.

The 4-5-2 Islanders storm into Boston to take on the 5-7-0 Bruins.

Rick DiPietro gets the call in net for the visitors while Tim Thomas is between the pipes for the home side.

Like the Vancouver Canucks, the Bruins got out to a slow start to the season, but have really started to turn things around of late, and I expect them to assert their dominance tonight over this perennial cellar dweller.

Boston crushed Toronto 7-0 on Saturday for its second straight victory.

“We’ve got to build off this,” said Thomas (who coincidentally is 7-1-1 with a 1.78 GAA in his last nine vs. the Isles). “We have another game Monday and we’ve got to focus on that one and get a win and start letting them add up.”

New York ended a six-game slide with a 5-3 win over Washington on Saturday.

Note though that the Islanders have the worst overall offense in the league with just 23-total goals thus far.

DiPietro is expected in net, as Evgeni Nabokov continues to recover from injury; DiPietro has lost his last four starts vs. Boston, sporting a sub-par 3.29 GAA.

But Boston's offense is finally untracked, scoring 12-goals in its last two games, and will be looking to improve upon its 11-2-1 record in its last 14 vs. New York.

All signs point to a commanding home victory!

Jim Feist

William & Mary vs St. Johns
Pick: William & Mary

William & Mary coach Tony Shaver should have a good squad this year as he returns four starters from last year's club. William & Mary plays well in the dog spot, going 25-13 ATS the last three years. St John's was a surprise team last year, though they disappointed down the stretch. This will be a rebuilding year for coach Steve Lavin, who has no starters returning to his team. The Red Storm made the NCAA Tournament and for the first time since 2002. But they lose 10 seniors from that post season team and this year they lost three more recruits who were declared academically ineligible. Lavin won't be with his team for tonight's game as he's expected to be home recuperating from prostrate cancer surgery. This will be the first meeting between these clubs in 52 years and with the Red Storm having to get used to an entirely new team and missing their coach early on, I'm taking the points here on Monday. William & Mary has the experience with four starters back and that should be good to cover the number here in the 2k Classic opening round game.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks

The Kings come into the Shark Tank off four straight losses, the last of which came in OT 3-2 to the Penguins as they blew a 3rd period lead Saturday night. Considering their 11-3 mark last three seasons when on the road and off an OT loss, we look for Los Angeles to break through tonight in San Jose where they have a winning record last three seasons and have revenge for a 1st round playoff exit last year in six games. Goaltending edge goes to the visitors w/ LA's Quick owning the 4th best GAA in the league at 1.68. The Kings offense will pick up here against San Jose's G Niemi, who had a 3.99 GAA in last year's playoff series. LA is also the better penalty killing unit (87.0 to 73.2).

Play on: Los Angeles

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

William & Mary +8 over ST JOHN'S: What a rebuilding project the Red Storm has to go through after they lost 10 seniors from last years group that surprised many by their NCAA berth. St John's lost 96.3% of their scoring and 97.8% of their rebounding and that's a lot to replace. They do have 3 of the top 100 recruits coming in, but it will take a bit for them to gel. William & Mary is pick for the middle of the Colonial, but they are a more experienced team than St Johns, who will also be without their coach tonight. The Tribe did just go 2-13 SU on the road last year, but theyb were 7-6 ATS in those games and they nearly upset Syracuse in an early season game last year. Look for the Tribe to keep this one close.

2 UNIT PLAY

Arizona -13.5 over Valparaiso: The Cats are off a fine 30-8 season, which included an Elite 8 finish in the NCAA Tourney. They do lose thier top 2 scorers from that team, but they do have one of the top Guard recruits in the nation coming in in Josiah Turner. The Cats are ranked 16th to start the year and with good reason as this team is loaded and will be one of the favorites in the PAC-12 this year. The loss to Seattle-Pacific in an Exhibition game was a shock, but will only motivate this team for a good showing tonight. Valpo comes in off a fine year that saw them win 23 games, but 3 starters and 61% of their scoring are gone from that team and it will be hard for a middle of the pack Horizon team that lost so much to keep it close vs a PAC-12 power. Arizona is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 November games, while Valpo is just 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games in November. Arizona by 17+ here.

1 UNIT PLAY

St Johns/ William & Mary Under 137: You will see that just like in all other sports I am mostly an Under player in CBB, so why not start with one on the first night. St Johns just lost too much offense from last year to fell that they can put up a ton of points here. They will look to the defensive end until their offense gels. William & Mary is not a high scoring team and last year when facing Syracuse just 123 points were scored in that one. I see a similar result tonight.

Jack Jones

Eagles/Bears OVER 47

I expect a similar shootout to the 31-26 Chicago victory last year when these teams met up. Chicago racked up 349 yards behind 247 passing and four touchdowns from Jay Cutler. Philly accounted for 398 total yards with 333 passing and two scores from Michael Vick.

Both Philly and Chicago have underachieving defenses this season. The Eagles are allowing 21.7 points/game while the Bears are yielding 21.4 points/game. Each team is getting it done offensively as the Eagles are scoring 25.6 points/game behind the No. 1 offense (449.4 yards/game). Chicago is averaging 24.3 points/game on the season.

The OVER is 5-1 in Bears last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 8-3 in Bears last 11 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The OVER is 3-0-1 in Eagles last 4 Monday games. The OVER is 37-17-1 in Eagles last 55 vs. a team with a winning record. Take the OVER in this game Monday.

Rob Vinciletti

New York Islanders vs. Boston Bruins
Play: Boston Bruins

Boston is off a 7-0 blowout win in their last game and have won 8 of the past 9 here vs the Islanders and 20 of the last 26 coming off back to back division games. New York finally broke their 6 game losing streak on Saturday night. However this will not be an easy task tonight for an Islander team that is the 2nd worst scoring team in the league with 2.1 goals per game. The Islanders are just 2-6 on the road when the total is 5 or less and have dropped 19 of the last 27 in November games and 14-58 in a road game where both teams scored 3 or more in last game Look for Boston to get the win here tonight.

Steve Janus

St. John's -8

The Red Storm opened up as 10-point favorites at home over William & Mary, but have since been bet down to just 8-points. While St. John's lost 10 seniors from a team that went 21-12, head coach Steve Lavin landed one of the top recruiting classes in school history. Nine new players have been added in, six of which were ranked among the top 100 recruits in the nation. The group is headlined by 6'10 forward/center Norvel Pelle, 6-8 forward Maurice Harkless,6-6 forward Amir Garrett, and 6-7 forward Jakarr Sampson.

A big reason St. John's has been bet down in this matchup is Pelle, Garrett, and Sampson have all been suspended for the first half of the season due to academics. While these three would have made a huge impact, there is still plenty of talent in this recruiting class to dominate a Horizon League opponent.

William & Mary went just 10-22 and 4-14 in the Colonial Conference last year. The Tribe do bring back a couple of quality players in Quinn McDowell and Brandon Britt, but the talent level isn't close. McDowell is expected to play, but isn't 100% as he battles a knee injury. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see St John's struggle early and allow William & Mary to keep it close, but look for the Red Storm to pull away late and bring home the cover tonight. BET ST JOHN'S!

Dave Price

1 Unit on Eastern Kentucky +17.5

The Colonels were a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons when catching 10 or more points. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, were 0-6 ATS the last 2 seasons as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. Also, Mississippi State is a terrible 1-12 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games. We'll take the points.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Bears/Eagles Under 47.5

These two combined for 57 points in last year's meeting, but I don't see this game being as high scoring. Prior to that game, the Bears and Eagles hadn't combined to score more than 44 points in 5 straight meetings. It will take some big plays from both teams to get over this number, and I expect the big plays to be limited. Chicago doesn't have a big play offense, and it's defense is designed to take away big plays. That's a big reason why the Bears have only been over this number in 2 games this season. Philly, believe it or not, has only been over this number in 2 games this season as well. Under coach Lovie Smith, the Bears have played to the under in 15 of 21 road games when valued as an underdog. We've seen an average of only 39.0 total points scored in these games. Looking back further, the under is 45-18-2 in the Bears' last 65 games as a road underdog. The under is also 5-1 in the Eagles' last 6 home games. I'll recommend the under tonight.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Bears/Eagles UNDER 47.5

Chicago is 8-1 UNDER in all games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since the beginning of last season. The Bears are also 11-1 UNDER when inserted into the road underdog role since the start of the 2009 season. We've seen 44 or less total points scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Bet the UNDER.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Philadelphia/ Chicago Under 47: After the opening week of MNF, which saw both games go Over, the OU has been 1-4-1 on MNF since and that 1 ovewr put just 41 points on the board. Now let's look at this series for a moment. Last year these teams put up 57 points, but the 5 games between these team have failed to put up more than 44 points as those 5 games averaged just 36.6 ppg and dating back to 1995 the last 10 games between these teams have averaged just 38.4 ppg, incluiding an average of just 28.5 ppg the last 2 games these teams played here. After a slow start the dream team defense of the Eagles is starting to sghow signs of gelling, as they have allowed just 277 ypg and 10 ppg in their last 2 games. That has now helped them climb to 10th overall (336 ypg) and 9th vs the pass (212 ypg). Tonight they will not be facing a great bears offense, but Chicgao does like to run with Forte and they will lookk to use that running game as part of their defense and play keep away from the leagues top ranked offense. Helping the Bears gameplan is the fact that the Eagles have struggled vs the run as they rank 17th allowing 118 ypg. The Eagles are more of a running team, but Chicago can stop the run as they rank 11th, allowing 108 ypg. Both of these defenses allow just 21.4 ppg and with more running than throwing here I will look for this one to finish right around 40. KEY TRENDS--- The OU is 18-45-2 when the Bears are a road dog, while it is 9-24 when the Eagles are off a game in which they scored 30+ points.

Tony Stoffo

Kings vs. Sharks
Play: Over 5

With both teams having fared well on the power play, with San Jose scoring at 22% and Los Angeles at 20% points towards a higher scoring game here. Plus I'm hearing the Kings defenseman will try and get more involved in the offensive zone tonight which will help both teams hitting the back of the net this evening. As the Kings will be forcing turnovers, and the Sharks getting a ton of odd man rushes when the Kings defensemen get caught deep. Over is 4-1 in Kings last 5 Monday games. Over is 6-1 in Sharks last 7 home games. Over is 6-1 in Sharks last 7 Monday games.

Doug Upstone

Philadelphia

It is time for Monday Night Football and it's a good matchup with Chicago and Philadelphia. We are going to have to give the edge to the Eagles on two accounts since the Bears are 2-10 ATS after two consecutive covers as a favorite and chalk like Philly is 23-6 ATS off a home win against a division rival, when playing on Monday night.