Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, November 8,2010

Frank Jordan

Denver Nuggets vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Chicago Bulls -3

Denver has shaken off any talks about the trading away of Carmelo Anthony as they are off to a 4-2 start and in first place. They are playing consistently with 2-1 records at home and on the road as they head to the windy city and take on the Bulls. Chicago has been up and down this year with a 2-3 record as they fought back to take the Celtics into overtime, but didn't have enough to finish as Boston won by 5. In this one look for the Bulls to have a complete game as Rose leads the way with the Bulls winning in the end over the Nuggets.

BIG AL

San Antonio @ Charlotte
PICK: Charlotte +4

It seems to happen every season for Larry Brown down in Carolina: The Bobcats always get off to a slow start. The last couple of years, they've started 3-9, and they're on their way this season to a similar start. But Charlotte is dressed in one of its best pointspread roles tonight, and we'll play on the Bobcats as a home underdog, as they've always (since the inception of their franchise) done well at home off a loss vs. an opponent off a win. In this situation, they're a solid 45-30 ATS. And even though Gregg Popovich's crew is off to a super 4-1 start, they really have been poor on the defensive end, as they're not rotating fast enough to open shooters. But Richard Jefferson's fast start, and the steady play of Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan has overshadowed the lackluster defense. But eventually that will catch up to the Spurs, and Charlotte defeated San Antonio 92-76 last season. Indeed, that was the Spurs worst offensive performance of the entire 2009-10 campaign. Look for an upset in the Queen City. Take the points with Charlotte.

Scott Spreitzer

Boston @ Dallas
PICK: Boston +4

Boston's depth is already coming into play this season. Even with Shaq sidelined (knee - questionable) Boston has plenty of bodies to bring in throughout the game, giving the starters plenty of rest. Yesterday's result in Oklahoma City was a perfect example. Only one Celtic logged more than 36 minutes last night, and that was Ray Allen who played 40 minutes. No less than four reserves logged at least 13 1/2 minutes. Kevin Durant "got his" for OKC last night, but no one else was much of a factor. Boston has won their last three in Dallas and have a bounce to their step like they have at the start of every season since the "Big 3" arrived. And just like the last three visits to American Airlines Center, the Celtics are an underdog. Dallas has been horrible in the role of a home favorite, covering just 9 of 37 a season ago. And they have not rebounded well from bad losses. Dallas enters tonight's game on a 0-4 ATS slide after a double-digit home loss. They have lost each of their last two home games, scoring just 92 points in an 11 point loss to Denver on Saturday and just 90 points in a one point loss as a 9 1/2 point favorite to Memphis. Look for Boston to continue their road dominance in Dallas. I'm taking the points with the Celtics.

JIM FEIST

NUGGETS / BULLS
TAKE: OVER

Despite missing a few key players, the Denver Nuggets are off to a 4-2 S/U start. The Nuggets have had to adjust their line with Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen being out and that has resulted in a smaller, faster lineup. The Nuggets have scored over 100 in six of their seven games including a season high 111 points in a win at home over the Clippers on Friday. Carmelo Anthony had 30 points in their win over the Clippers and then came back with 27 the next night in a win over Dallas. The Nuggets were the 10th best shooting team in the NBA last season and while their adjustments have seen that number drop this year, they have picked up the scoring percentage of late. Chicago, 2-3 SU, had hoped the hiring of Celtics assistant coach Tom Thibodeau would help their defense. However, that hasn't seen any success yet, as the Bulls are allowing 105 points per game thus far, six more than last year. Though the last two meetings between these clubs have gone UNDER the total, before that the matchups had gone OVER eight straight times. I am looking for tonight's game to go over here again. The Nuggets are getting into a groove with their new, faster lineup and the Bulls have not been holding anyone down so far. Take the OVER.

James Patrick Sports

Rhode Island vs. Pittsburgh

Pittsburghs winning percentage at the Peterson Events Center is (.923) with a (132-11) in eight years. Panthers HC Jamie Dixon has led his Panthers to (20) victories and (10) Big East wins in each of the past (7) seasons. Pittsburgh returns (86%) of its scoring,(91%) of its rebounding and (86%) of the minutes played from a team that is reliant on Defense, Rebounding and Toughness. College Basketball's initial complimentary selection from Big Game James Patrick is Pitt Panthers.

Rob Vinciletti

San Antonio Spurs vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Play: San Antonio Spurs -3

The Spurs have controlled the series against Charlotte over the past few years and have won 5 of 5 here in Charlotte. Even better is the Spurs 5-0 straight up and ats record the last 3 years when facing opponents who average less than 91 points per game. Charlotte has struggled early on this year while the Spurs have started out rather quickly and are coming off a nice home overtime win vs Houston. Look for the Spurs to take another vs the Bobcats. On Monday I have a Big 100% Monday night football system that has 2 Power angles that are rare and equal 18-1. Football combined is up over 20 games over .500 this year. Jump on now and start your week right.

Tom Freese

Suns at Grizzlies
Prediction: Over

Memphis is 8-3 OVER their last 11 games and they are 11-3 OVER their last 14 Monday games. The Grizzlies are 7-2 OVER after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. Memphis is 5-1 OVER with one day of rest. Phoenix is 14-4 OVER when the Suns opponent scores 100 or more points in their last game. Phoenix is 7-3 OVER after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. The Suns are 8-2 OVER vs. a team with a losing record.

John Ryan

Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors
Prediction: Golden State Warriors

5* graded play on the Golden State Warriors. The Golden State Warriors have won four of their first six games and are off to their best start since the 2005 season, but they still can?t win on the road. They lost yesterday at Detroit 102-97 and were two point favorites. Last season they went 8-33 away from home and need to establish themselves as a team that can win road games if they are to take the next step to making the playoffs.

Toronto is without Chris Bosch this season and they did not make the playoffs with him on the team last season. So, fan and team expectations are extremely low for the Raptors, who already are off to a poor 1-5 start.

Toronto started the season splitting two home games losing to the Knicks 98-93 in a pick-em game and then destroyed a very weak Cleveland team 101-81 installed as four point favorites. The Raptors then took to the road for a very difficult road trip to the West Coast where they lost all four games, but covered two of them against the spread. The first game at Sacramento saw them lose 111-108, but covered as six point dogs. Then lost big to Utah 125-108 as 10 1/2 point dogs. They played very well against the undefeated Lakers losing 108-103 and covering as 13 point dogs, and finally losing at Portland 97-84 as 12 point dogs.

Golden State is off to a 4-2 start and are in second place in the Pacific division of the Western Conference. Although still quite early in the season the Warriors are moving and distributing the ball extremely well ranking fourth with 24.2 assists per game. They are also defending the glass well and rank fourth with 46.5 total rebounds per game. They rank second in the NBA getting an impressive 15.5 offensive rebounds per game.

The real surprise for the Warriors is that their star player Monta Ellis leads the NBA in scoring at 27.8 points per game. His average is a bit inflated with a 39 point performance against Memphis, which the Warriors won 115-109 on November 3. Still, his leadership as the shooting guard on the team cannot be under estimated. He is averaging heavy minutes at nearly 40 minutes per game and fatigue will not be a factor until at least the 25th game of the season.

Golden State will look to play an up-tempo style tonight and improve on their 83 points per game and poor 40.9% shooting on the road. Golden State can pack the paint area knowing that Toronto is a struggling perimeter shooting team and does not have any weapons from the beyond the arc. Toronto is shooting just 28.7% from three point territory this season. By backing off the perimeter, Golden State will have a strong rebounding night on the defensive glass and minimize second chance scoring opportunities.

Given the posted total of 214 1/2 it is a near certainty that both teams will score more than 98 points each in this game. Note that Golden State is a solid 41-19 ATS where both teams score 98 or more points in a game over the last two seasons. Golden State is also a solid 15-3 ATS when facing struggling defensive teams allowing 103+ points per game over the last two seasons; 24-6 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game over the last two seasons.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Let's go against the public, who has moved this line all the way up to six in some shops as the desperate Bengals beat the Steelers outright in both meetings this year and need a win to save their season. Prior to a loss to Cleveland, Cincinnati had won eight straight division games.

Play on: Cincinnati

LT Profits

Celtics +3½

It is still early in the NBA season, but the Boston Celtics appear to be taking the regular season more seriously this year than they did last year, no doubt motivated by most experts already handing the Eastern Conference crown to the Miami Heat this season. A motivated Celtics team would be bad new for their opponents tonight, the 3-2 Dallas Mavericks.

The NBA latest line by the sportsbooks for this contest has Boston as dangerous 3½ point underdogs, with the betting odds set at -110.

The Celtics are 6-1 with their only hiccup coming vs. the Cavaliers in the second game of the season, when they were still hung over after beating the Heat on opening night. Boston has not had any letdowns since, and they are again playing great defense, limiting opponents to 93.1 points per game on 43.4 percent shooting.

Furthermore, their points allowed would be even lower if not for two overtime games where the extra five minutes of playing time allowed those two opponents to sneak just over 100 points. The Boston defense was as stifling as usual last night at Oklahoma City in a nice 92-83 road win ower the Thunder where the Celts held Kevin Durant and Company to 42.7 percent shooting. Ray Allen paced Boston in the win with 19 points while Paul Pierce added 17.

The Celtics have also dominated the head-to-head series with the Mavericks in recent seasons, going 5-1 straight up in the last six meetings. That streak includes a perfect 3-0 mark here at American Airlines Center despite Boston being underdogs on the NBA betting odds on two of those occasions, with the Mavericks not scoring more than 93 points in any of those three games.

Besides, the Mavs have not exactly done a great job of protecting their home court this year, as since their season opening win over the Charlotte Bobcats in this building, they have been upset in their last two home games by the Grizzlies and Nuggets respectively, and Boston will represent the biggest upset yet.

Take the points with Boston tonight, and do not be surprised if they win outright at Dallas again in this NBA matchup.

BEN BURNS

Golden State @ Toronto
PICK: Toronto -1

The situation favors the home team here. After wrapping up their road trip on Saturday, the Raptors had yesterday off. The Warriors, on the other hand, lost at Detroit. In addition to playing back to back road games, they're now playing their third game in the past four days.

The Warriors are 13-22 SU the last 35 times that they played the second of back to back games. During that stretch, they've gone an ugly 16-68 SU on the road, overall.

With the Raptors at 11-8-2 ATS the last 21 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of greater than 210, consider backing the rested home team.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Toronto Raptors -1

The Raptors came up empty handed on their 4-game road trip, but they were impressive in covering efforts against Sacramento and LA (Lakers). Playing their first home game since Oct. 29, Toronto will be hungry to get back in the win column tonight.

They catch the Warriors in a good spot as they just played a tough one in Detroit last night. The Warriors may be 4-2, but all 4 of those wins came at home. Golden State was just 8-33 on the road last season, and its road woes will continue until it can improve on the defensive end.

The Raptors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less period. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. We’ll take the Raptors tonight.

Sam Martin

Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks

Way too many points for Orlando to be laying here against a good Atlanta team, even with the Hawks playing this game without rest. Atlanta has jumped out to a 6-1 straight up record to start the season, including a perfect 4-0 on the road. Of course they haven't played a quality opponent like this Orlando team away from home this season, but they can use this game as a measuring stick as to how good they are right now, and we think they'll be able to keep this game close. Also, the Magic were blown out against their only tough opponent this year (Miami), so we don't expect a big win by Orlando tonight!

Wunderdog

Cal Irvine vs. Illinois
Play: Illinois -21.5

The Fighting Ilini has a lot to look forward to this season. They open the season ranked No. 13 in the nation against UC Irvine at home. The Illini have not been to the dance in two of the last three seasons, but with almost all the pieces back from last year's NIT team, things are looking up again. Demetri McCamey, now a senior and All Big-10 guard a year ago will lead the Illini attack. His backcourt running mate is D.J. Richardson who was voted the top newcomer of the year in the Big-10 a year ago, so the Illini have a pair of lethal guards. The front court is stacked as well, and with the Illinois Player of the Year, Jereme Richmond, in uniform, the Illini are talented and deep. UC Irvine hopes that new coach Russell Turner can turn around a 14-18 season as he takes the helm at UC Irvine. New systems sometimes take awhile to come together, and it will be a monumental task against an Illinois team on a mission. I like Illinois to win and cover this one.