LARRY NESS
San Antonio @ Charlotte
PICK: San Antonio -4
The Spurs made it three straight wins on Saturday by edging Houston 124-121 in OT. Tony Parker (16.8-8.4 APG) scored 21 points and added 14 assists, Ginobili (21.0) finished with 28 points, Jefferson had 22 plus Duncan (17.6-10.8) added a double-double (19-11). The "Big 3" looks just fine and Jefferson (20.4) has rebounded from a poor first season with the Spurs. The Spurs are 4-1 and take on a Charlotte team which has opened 1-5, after going 44-38 last season for the club's first-ever winnings season and playoff appearance last year. The Bobcats are the second-lowest scoring team in the league at 89.7 PPG and cannot stay with the Spurs. Popovich had said in the preseason that he would "push the tempo" this year and he's been a man of his word, as the Spurs are 4th in scoring (109.0 PPG) and 4th in FG percentage (48.0%). San Antonio has won 10 of the 12 meetings between the two clubs and tonight makes it 11 of 13!
Black Widow
1* on Atlanta Hawks +9
This is too big of a spread for the Orlando Magic to have to cover without the services of starting point guard Jameer Nelson, who is doubtful with an ankle injury. Sure, the Magic swept the Hawks in a lackluster effort by Atlanta in the second round of the playoffs last year. But because of that, Atlanta has had this game circled on their calendar all offseason. Getting swept in the playoffs has been their driving force to a 6-1 start this season, and now they get their shot at revenge Monday to improve to 7-1 on the year. The Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Atlanta is a perfect 4-0 on the road this season, winning by an average of 10.0 points/game. Take the Hawks and the points.
Info Plays
3* on Dallas Mavericks -3
Reasons the Mavs cover:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home favorites (DALLAS) - off a upset loss as a favorite, first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games. This is a 31-10 ATS System hitting 75.6% since 1996. After an upset loss to Denver last time out, the Mavs will be ready to go tonight when Boston comes to town.
2.) The Celtics are playing the second of a back-to-back. After a nice win at Oklahoma City last night, this veteran team will have a hard time coming back with the same type of effort in Dallas. We do not believe they'll be able to match the effort they get from the fresh Mavericks in this one. The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Dallas is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite. Bet Dallas at home.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Charlotte Bobcats +4
Charlotte is 0-2 at home this season, but both of those losses have come by just 3 points. Hungry for its first home win, I expect Charlotte to keep this one within the number this evening. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Spurs are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Bet the Bobcats.
Jack Jones
Toronto Raptors PK
The Toronto Raptors are showing excellent value as a pick 'em at home against the Golden State Warriors Monday. Sure, Toronto is just 1-5 this season, but they've played a brutal shedule which has included four straight road games at the Lakers, Blazers, Jazz and Kings. In their last home game, Toronto destroyed Cleveland 101-81. A return trip home tonight is just what the Dr. ordered for the Raptors. They faced a Golden State team that is overvalued after a 4-2 start. All four of the Warriors wins have come at home this season, and they are 0-2 on the road losing by and average of 14.5 PPG.
The Warriors have been a terrible road team. Golden State went 8-33 away from home last season, and are now 8-35 on the road over the last 2 seasons. The Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Toronto is a 1-point favorite in most places, and the Raptors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Toronto is playing with a days' rest, while the Warriors are playing their second of a back-to-back tonight as they continue their 5-game road trip. Golden State will not be able to match Toronto's effort tonight, especially after a hard-fought 97-102 loss at Detroit Sunday. Take the Raptors Monday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Atlanta Hawks +9
Atlanta got caught looking ahead to this game last night. Following a loss to Phoenix, it will have no problem getting up for this one. Plus, the Hawks will be out for some serious revenge after the way they were embarrassed by Orlando in last season's playoffs. While Atlanta will be without Marvin Williams, it catches a break with Orlando point guard Jameer Nelson not expected to go. This is a terrific spot for Atlanta when you consider that plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, if those dogs are very good teams outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more, are 24-5 ATS since 1996. Also, the Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take Atlanta.
SPORTS WAGERS
Denver +1.31 over CHICAGO
Lost in all the hoopla surrounding Carmelo Anthony and his future is the fact that the Nuggets are a pretty damn good squad. The early season attention has been placed on the usual suspects like the Lakers, Celtics and Heat but if you take a quick look at the Northwest standings you’ll see Denver at the top. Granted, its every early and the Nuggets will be in a dogfight for that top spot all year but it’s still a good start and one that is much more encouraging than their opponents. The Bulls hired Tom Thibodeau to revamp their defense but so far what he’s been preaching hasn’t been working. Chicago ranks second worst in the East in points allowed and the main reason for that is opponents have averaged and eye-popping 35 free throw attempts per game. That is simply an unacceptable number and more importantly completely unsustainable for success in the NBA. The Nuggets are one of the most physical teams in the league and have a plethora of guys that can get to the charity stripe starting with Anthony, who is consistently in the top ten in attempts per game. Then there’s Chauncey Billups, who actually leads the team in foul shot attempts this season. The Bulls garnered all kinds of praise in the off-season and the books still believe this is a team in the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference - right now, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Without Boozer, it’s the same team that went 41-41 last year. After Rose, Noah and Deng, it’s a squad that gives big minutes to guys like Keith Bogans, Kyle Korver, and unproven Taj Gibson. When Boozer rejoins the team the Bulls will be great but right now they’re just not a good team. The Nuggets are the better club on paper and look to be in mid-season form. Play: Denver +1.31 (Risking 2 units).
EZWINNERS
Pittsburgh Steelers -6
The Bengals swept Pittsburgh last season, but this is not the same Bengals team that we saw last year. Cincinnati is not playing the same physical style or shown the intensity that they had a season ago. They really don't have much of a home field advantage as they are just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games at Paul Brown Stadium and overall they are on a 3-12 slide against the spread in their last fifteen games. The Steelers had won five straight meetings between these teams before last season and I expect Pittsburgh to get back on track in this game. The Steelers offense has been sputtering a bit, but I expect Big Ben and company to get it going against a Cincinnati team that is unable to pressure the passer. I expect Hines Ward and Mike Wallace to have big games. Lay the points.
JR O'Donnell
CHI / DEN Over 205.5
Jr O's is all "Over 205.5" tonight as the Denver Nuggets are a smaller and quicker bunch lately and we are super high on Chi Bulls Derick Rose and Luol Deng who has started to get nasty and play stronger! The Chi Bulls also will fill it up quick in the paint. These Nuggets are banged up but still scoring as they shot a nice 51% vs the Clippers . These Bulls are having trouble stopping anybody these days and the Bulls let the Knicks put up 120 and the Knicks hit 16 trey's! The Jr O power ratings have this Baby @ 218.5! Derick Rose is rock solid on the scoring and assist end but he has increased the turnovers 2 fold since last year. The Over is a solid (( 21-10)) in Nuggets last 31 vs. NBA Central
Lenny Del Genio
DAL -3.5 vs BOS
We'll side with the Mavericks here as the catch an old Celtics team playing without rest Monday night. Boston won in Oklahoma City Sunday night, making this a tough turnaround and we've already seen them go 0-2 ATS this season playing without rest as they got spanked by Cleveland (after beating Miami) and failing to cash at home vs. Milwaukee (after beating Detroit). Don't the Mavs have to start covering at home sooner than later? Going back to last year, they are 12-31 ATS when laying points at home (incl playoffs). They will be playing 14 of their next 21 games here. Take Dallas.
Karl Garrett
Pittsburgh at CINCINNATI
Taking a look at the total in tonight's AFC North battle, and I like the under to be the way to go.
2 of the last 3 Monday night games have held low, and 10 of the Bengals last 14 home games have also held low.
G-Man added it up, and the Pittsburgh defense is allowing just over 14 points per game this season, and they have held 5 of their 7 foes to 17 points or less.
Cincy has plenty of talent on offense, but it has yet to translate to points, as the Bengals have not topped 3 TD's in 5 of 7 games this season.
Ball control the key tonight, and the clock ticks away on the 3rd under in the last 4 weeks under the Monday night lights.
G-Man playing the Steelers-Bengals LOW.
3♦ UNDER
Joel Tyson
San Antonio at CHARLOTTE (+4)
San Antone off to a 4-1 start, while Charlotte has gone a disappointing 1-5 to start the new season, but to be fair, the 'Cats have already played 4 games on the road.
Back at home where they went a solid 18-10 against the spread in games where the price was 6-points or fewer, I like Larry Brown's team to come to play.
Charlotte did stop a 6 game series losing streak with a double-digit home win last year at home against San Antonio, and I am calling for deja-vu all over again.
Take the Bobcats plus the points.
1♦ CHARLOTTE
Derek Mancini
San Antonio at CHARLOTTE (+4)
Don't make the mistake of underestimating this Bobcats team because they've started slow out of the gate. They are talented, have a Hall of Fame coach, and most importantly, they match up extremely well with the Spurs. Charlotte beat San Antonio the time they met 92-76, highlighted by some excellent defensive play. I expect another strong defensive battle tonight.
For all the public love the Spurs are getting in this match up, bettors seem to be forgetting the Bobcats just played the Magic extremely tough, losing 91-88, but easily covering as a 6' point home pup. In that game against Orlando, we saw the Bobcats defense finally start to round into form, holding the Magic to 41% shooting and outrebouding them 40-37.
Bobcats have the pieces to match up with San Antonio, specifically in the frontcourt. We'll see who get the Duncan assignment, but reports are Tyrus Thomas could see extended time against the Spurs star power forward, which I believe is the right move. Both Diaw and Wallace are undersized, while Nazr Mohamed is not the answer. Either way, the match ups are right, and with two defensive minded teams going toe-to-toe, I expect a low-scoring competitive affair in this one.
Overall, there's simply too much public love for the Spurs here, as bettors have been too quick to dismiss a good, but slow starting Bobcats team. Saw some spark in the Bobcats loss (but cover) against Orlando the other day, and I see them building off that effort tonight. Take Charlotte plus the points over San Antonio Monday.
3♦ CHARLOTTE
Michael Cannon
San Antonio at CHARLOTTE (+4)
Take the points with the Bobcats tonight at home over the Spurs.
I know Charlotte isn’t off to the best start in the world, but there’s still potential there. Especially with the way the Bobcats can play defense.
Coach Larry Brown preaches defense and anytime you get a team that buys into that philosophy you have to seriously consider them when they’re listed as a home dog.
San Antonio clearly has history on its side in this series, having won 10 of 12 all-time meetings with Charlotte.
But the Bobcats won the most recent meeting at Time Warner Cable Arena by a convincing 92-76 count last season.
Charlotte was 18-10 ATS last year in home games where the line was six or less.
Take the points with the Bobcats as they stay within the number.
3♦ CHARLOTTE
Scott Delaney
Denver (+3) at CHICAGO
The smaller, quicker and methodical lineup has finalyl caught on with the Nuggets, who I believe will win their third straight with an outright win tonight in Chicago.
I'm still take the points in this game, don't get me wrong, but I do believe the Nuggets have a good shot at winning this game, as they pose matchup problems for the defensive-starved Bulls.
While Chicaho has allowed 105 points per game early on this season, the Nuggets come in after finding an offensive groove over the weekend, beating the Clippers, 111-104, and the Mavericks, 103-92, after hitting 13 of 21 3-point firings.
The Nuggets - who won both games against the Bulls last season, including a 90-89 victory at the United Center - have covered 10 of the last 14 meetings overall.
Take the points in this one, as it could come down to holding the ball last - and if that happens, I'm comfy with the Nuggets given how hot they've been from beyond the arc.
3♦ DENVER
Chuck O'Brien
Phoenix (+4') at MEMPHIS
Monday’s complimentary selection comes from the NBA – I’m 6-3 with NBA free releases so far – as I’ll take the points with the Suns in Memphis.
Very, very tough spot for the Grizzlies, who are coming off a four-game, five-day West Coast road trip that started with three straight losses to the Lakers, Warriors and these Suns followed by Saturday’s impressive 100-91 win at Sacramento. Memphis has now played seven games in seven different cities, having yet to play back-to-back home contests.
Phoenix is in a bit of a tricky situation, too, having played at Atlanta last night (winning 118-114 as a 5½-point underdog). The Suns have had just one back-to-back this season, and it didn’t go well (114-106 home loss), but that was to the Lakers. Memphis is certainly not in the class of the two-time defending champs, and with the Grizzlies coming off their long road trip (and thus likely sluggish), that negates Phoenix’s back-to-back situation.
With Sunday’s upset of the Hawks, the Suns are on ATS runs of 38-18-1 overall, 19-9 on the road and 8-3 as an underdog, and they’ve also cashed in 20 of their last 27 against the Southwest Division and eight of 10 after a SU victory. Meanwhile, Memphis has been a pointspread disaster at home, going 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21, including 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 as a home chalk.
4♦ PHOENIX
Bobby Maxwell
Boston at DALLAS (-3')
For my comp play, this is a very tough spot for the Celtics, coming in off a tough victory in Oklahoma City Sunday night and now they have to take on the Mavericks just 24 hours later. Boston has some old legs on that roster and will be sluggish in this one. Lay the points and play the Mavericks.
The Mavericks last played Saturday, losing at home to the Nuggets 103-92 as a 6 ½-point favorite. While Dallas is a strangely unpredictable team, beating the Nuggets in Denver three nights earlier, they will be up for this one against Boston.
Boston comes into this one on ATS skids of 1-4 overall, 3-10 on Monday and 2-6 against the Southwest Division. The Celtics are already 0-2 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back, including an ugly loss in Cleveland and an overtime win over Milwaukee when they couldn’t cash as eight-point favorites.
Dallas has lost its last two games at home after opening the season with a dominating 101-86 home win over the Bobcats. The Mavericks will get the consistency from Dirk Nowitzki, but they have to get more from Caron Butler and Tyson Chandler. Butler has to be a star on this team while Chandler has to come out and get a double-double, using his legs and athleticism to get easy putbacks and rebounds.
I will go ahead and play the Mavericks at home tonight as they will be fired up, as well as all the fans in the arena, to beat up the Celtics. Lay the points and play Dallas.
3♦ DALLAS
Stephen Nover
Boston at DALLAS (-3')
I like Dallas in this spot not just because the Mavericks are one of the best teams in the league and have three seven-footers, but that the aging Celtics are in a tough situational spot.
This marks Boston's fifth game in eight days. Two of the games during this span went into overtime. The Celtics are off an impressive road win against up-and-coming Oklahoma City on Sunday night.
Ray Allen went 40 minutes in that victory. Rajon Rondo logged 36 minutes with Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce each playing 32 minutes. This mark's Boston third game in four days. The Celtics are vulnerable in these heavy fatigue situations.
The Celtics are 0-2 ATS in the second of back-to-back games. The last time they beat an elite team - Miami - they lost to Cleveland the following night.
2♦ DALLAS
Chris Jordan
Boston (+3') at DALLAS
I'm going to take the road team in this one, as the Celtics come in a with a bit of steam, a bit of momentum, after winning in Oklahoma City yesterday, 92-83.
Though Kevin Durant scored a game-high 34 points, the Celtics limited the rest of the Thunder to 39.6 percent shooting.
What was most impressive in the win, which is something I've noticed about their counterparts in the Western Conference - the Lakers - was the Celtics' bench, which combined for 33 points and helped build a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter after a 22-point lead was sliced to six.
Tonight the Celtics storm into Big D, where morale is low thanks to the football Cowboys and all hope for success rest with the Mavericks, and I think Boston is the value play as the underdog.
Since Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen came on board three years ago to form the Big Three, the Celtics have seen their fortune against these Mavericks turn around. Tonight they look toward their sixth straight win and fourth in a row at Dallas, which is 1-2 at home this season.
The underdog has covered seven of the last 10 meetings, while the road team has won three in a row straight up.
Take the points in this one.
3♦ BOSTON