SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL
Pittsburgh (5-2, 2-5 ATS) at Denver (6-1 SU and ATS)
Looking for their fifth straight win, the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers head to Invesco Field in Denver for a primetime matchup with the AFC West-leading Broncos.
Pittsburgh opened the season 1-2 (0-3 ATS) but rebounded to win four straight (2-2 ATS) prior to taking last week off. Two weeks ago, the Steelers beat the Vikings 27-17 at home, covering as a six-point favorite and they cashed in two Minnesota turnovers for defensive touchdowns in the fourth quarter to secure the spread-cover. QB Ben Roethlisberger is third in the NFL with 2,062 passing yards, and he’s completing 70 percent of his throws with 11 TDs and six INTs. Defensively, the Steelers rank seventh in the NFL in points allowed (18.4 ppg), eighth in total yards allowed (291 ypg) and first in rushing yards allowed (76.6 ypg).
Denver fell for the first time this season last week in Baltimore, losing 30-7 as a 4½-point underdog. The Broncos opened the season with six straight wins (6-0 ATS), and they’re getting quality play from QB Kyle Orton, who has thrown for 1,617 yards, nine TDs and just one INT. Denver’s defense had its worst out of the season last week, giving up season highs in points (30) and rushing yards (125). Still, the Broncos continue to rank in the top three in the league in scoring defense (13.7 ppg, second), total defense (266.7 ypg, first) and rushing defense (86.1 ypg, third).
The Broncos have won seven of the last 10 meetings (5-5 ATS) with the Steelers dating back to 1990. Since the Steelers scored a 34-17 upset win in Denver in the 2005-06 playoffs, the Broncos have taken the last two by scores of 31-20 as a three-point road underdog in 2006 and 31-28 as a four-point home pup in 2007. The ‘dog has cashed in four straight in this series, winning the last three outright, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes.
Pittsburgh is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 against teams with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in its last five Week 9 games, but it is on pointspread slides of 2-6 since last year’s Super Bowl (all as a favorite), 0-5 on the road, 1-5 after a straight-up win and 2-5 on Mondays. Denver is just 7-17-1 ATS in its last 25 at home and 7-20 ATS in its last 27 after a non-cover, but otherwise the Broncos are on positive pointspread runs of 6-1 this year, 5-1 against AFC teams, 4-0 as a home ‘dog and 4-1 against teams with a winning record.
The Steelers are on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 5-1 as road favorites, 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 16-5 against AFC teams and 5-1 against opponents with a winning record. The Broncos have topped the total in 20 of 28 after a non-cover and 15 of 21 after a straight-up loss, but they are on “under” stretches of 6-1 overall, 8-1 at home and 4-1 as an underdog. In this series, the “over” has been the play in five of the last six overall.
Finally, the “over” is 19-5-1 in Monday Night Football games dating back to last season (8-1 this year).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Phoenix (6-1, 4-3 ATS) at Philadelphia (3-3, 2-4 ATS)
The red-hot Suns conclude a five-game, seven-dayr Eastern Conference road trip with a stop in Philadelphia for a battle against on the Sixers inside the Wachovia Center.
After suffering its first loss of the season on Wednesday – 122-100 in Orlando as a 7½-point underdog – Phoenix has rebounded to upset the Celtics 107-101 on Friday as 10½-point ‘dogs and then beat the Wizards in Washington 102-90 on Sunday as two-point favorites. Going back to the end of last season, Phoenix has won nine of its last 10 games (6-4 ATS), scoring at least 100 points in all 10 contests.
Philadelphia has alternated wins and losses in its last four, losing in Detroit 88-81 as a 1½-point underdog Sunday. The Sixers’ offense has struggled lately, topping the 100-point mark just once in its last five games, with that being a 141-127 overtime win in New York on Halloween.
These teams split their two matchups last season with the home team winning and covering in each outing. Philadelphia scored a 108-91 victory as a 3½-point favorite in February and then lost in Phoenix 126-116 as a seven-point ‘dog six weeks later. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 clashes, with the favorite going 11-2 ATS during this stretch. Also, the Suns have covered in 10 of the last 14 overall.
Phoenix has failed to cash in seven of its last 10 Monday games, but it is 4-1 ATS in its last five against the Eastern Conference and 5-2 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records. Philadelphia is on ATS slides of 2-6 overall, 3-8 against the Western Conference, 2-8 when playing the second day of a back-to-back and 2-6 on Mondays.
The Suns have stayed under the posted total in six of its last eight road games and five of six Monday contests, but they’re also on “over” runs of 4-1 against Atlantic Division teams and 7-1 when playing the second day of a back-to-back. The Sixers are on “under” streaks of 8-3 overall, 5-1 at home and 23-8-2 on Mondays. Finally, the under is 6-3 in the last nine meetings in this rivalry, with the last three at the Wachovia Center staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX and UNDER
Rob Vinciletti
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New Orleans Hornets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: New Orleans Hornets +1
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The Hornets have controlled the series the last 3 years winning and covering all 7 meetings. The Clippers are just 3-9 when installed as a home favorite of 3 or less points. Look for the Hornets to sting the Clippers tonight. Those looking to sting their man can jump on a 100% Perfet NFL system that has cashed every time since 1980. This big 5 STAR will start your week in the right direction. Get on and see all the Power Angles that apply to our side.We cashed all 3 Sunday afternoon games on Sunday and went 5-1 on Saturday cashing the big GOY.More damamge tonight. NBA will be up on later report. Take the Hornets as the free play. RV.
Alex Smart
Utah Jazz @ New York Knicks
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On Monday night, the Utah Jazz and New York Knicks crack skulls on the hardwood. The oddsmakers have made the Jazz modest favorites in this one, but the number I'm focusing in on is the posted 'total' of 210, which is too low for my money.
It's an understatement to say that both of these teams have been struggling defensively. Utah just conceded a whopping 104 points at home to a Sacramento team that was playing without its best shooter. The 104.0 points per game that the Jazz are allowing ranks 21st in the NBA. They're allowing opposing teams to knock down 45.9% of their shots from downtown. However, save the clunker of a 96-85 loss to Dallas back on November 3rd, the offense for HC Jerry Sloan has done its job. Yes, he would've loved to see a lot more points hit the board against the Kings on Saturday, but 113 points against San Antonio proves that this team can score and score in bunches.
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Then there are the Knicks, who not only play an up and down game like no one else in the Eastern Conference, but they also do a very poor job of playing defense. The Bucks, playing without G Michael Redd, dropped 102 points on New York's 'D' on Saturday night, easily the most embarrassing performance for HC Mike D'Antoni's team this season. The Knicks have allowed every opponent to score at least 100 points this year, and that's very unlikely to change on Monday night.
It's not like New York doesn't have the ability to score as well. The team is averaging 100.6 points per game, and will likely finish well above that by the team the '09-'10 season is over. However, the unit has been held to an average of 89 points in its L/3 games, a number which is incredibly unacceptable by Knicks fans.
In addition to the fact that both teams should be able to run to this 'total', they can both shoot free throws as well. The Knicks rank 3rd in the NBA at 81.9% from the charity stripe, while the Jazz are just behind them in 4th.
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The 'over' has cashed in ten times in Utah's L/12 road games overall and is 10-4 in its L/14 games following an ATS defeat. Even though the Knicks have played 18 of their L/25 games 'under' the number, 'over' bettors have cashed in nine times in New York's L/12 home games when it is a dog by less than five points. The last outing between these teams ended in a 112-104 victory for the Jazz. Expect at least that many points on the scoreboard on Monday. Book it!!!
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Play: Utah Jazz/New York Knicks Over
Frank Jordan
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New Orleans Hornets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: New Orleans Hornets +1
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New Orleans played in the Staples Center Sunday against the Lakers and were outscored by 10 points in the first quarter and it was all down hill after that as the Lakers own 104-88. The Hornets get another crack at beating an LA team at the Staples Center as they take on the Clippers looking to snap a steak of losses in 4 of their last 5 games. The LA Clippers are coming off a 113-110 win over Memphis which puts them at 3-4 on the season. Despite a 3 game winning streak by LA and New Orleans winless on the road look for New Orleans to finally play a full and complete game earning the win. Play New Orleans
Sports Gambling Hotline
Toronto at SAN ANTONIO -6'
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Lay the wood in the NBA tonight, as the Spurs get back on track after back-to-back road losses at Utah and Portland.
San Antonio is a perfect 2-0 both straight up, and against the spread at home thus far, and they catch the Raptors playing their third road game in the last four nights.
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Toronto was just blasted by 28-points at Dallas, and they have dropped 7 of the last 9 series meetings against the Spurs.
We just don't see the Spurs losing their third in a row, so we will go right ahead and lay the home wood, as San Antonio gets the job done back on their home hardwood.
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Play on the Spurs.
2♦ SAN ANTONIO
Chris Jordan
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New Orleans +1 at L.A. CLIPPERS
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Last night the Hornets were shelled by the Lakers.
Tonight they'll turn the tables and serve a beat down of their own, as they should have no trouble with the injury-plagued Clippers.
Second-year guard Eric Godon is suffering from a sore left groin, which adds him to the list of players nursing injuries. And since he's listed as doubtful for tonight's game against Chris Paul and the Hornets, this is the biggest reason I think the wrong team is favored.
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Facing Paul was going to be a tough task for the Clippers anyway, but now they have to do it sans one of their best defensive players and second-leading scorer. Already missing is top-darft pick Blake Griffin, who is out indefinitely with a bum knee.
The Hornets have covered nine straight meetings, so there's no reason to believe they cannot bounce back to make it 10 straight and avenge last night's loss to the other team from L.A.
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3♦ NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Bobby Maxwell
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New Orleans +1 at L.A. CLIPPERS
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The Texans got it done for us on Sunday and delivered my fourth straight FREE winner. Tonight I'll make it five in a row as I hit the NBA hardwood for a winner on the Hornets in Los Angeles against the Clippers.
The Hornets are going to come out tonight and take out some frustrations on the Clippers. They got drilled by the Lakers Sunday night and rested some of their starters in the fourth quarter so they'd be fresh for this one.
I know the Clippers have won three straight games, a mini-miracle in and of itself, but they’ve only gone 1-2 ATS as they aren’t beating the league’s elite. The three wins are over the Grizzlies, Warriors and T’Wolves.
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New Orleans has gotten off to a slow start this season but they have absolutely dominated the Clippers the last few years, winning nine straight and cashing in all nine. Last year these two teams met three times and the closest contest was a six-point road win by the Hornets in April, winning 104-98 as a four-point road chalk.
The Hornets have won five straight in Los Angeles against the Clips, cashing in each and the favorite, the Hornets, is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 clashes.
Los Angeles is on ATS slides of 19-40 at home, 8-20 as a favorite, 6-18 against the Southwest Division and 5-25 on Mondays. I’m loving the Hornets in this one.
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4♦ NEW ORLEANS
DUNKEL INDEX
Pittsburgh at Denver
The Broncos look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games as a home underdog. Denver is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3)
Game 429-430: Pittsburgh at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 138.030; Denver 136.545
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3); Over
NBA
Toronto at San Antonio
The Spurs look to take advantage of a Toronto team that is coming off a 129-101 loss to Dallas and is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss of 10 points or more. San Antonio is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6 1/2)
Game 701-702: Phoenix at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 121.652; Philadelphia 116.940
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 4 1/2; 206 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 214
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+1); Under
Game 703-704: Utah at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 116.629; New York 114.766
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 2; 213 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 4 1/2; 210
Dunkel Pick: New York (+4 1/2); Over
Game 705-706: Toronto at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 115.991; San Antonio 124.504
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 8 1/2; 201
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6 1/2); Under
Game 707-708: Minnesota at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 109.091; Golden State 117.124
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 8; 208 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 6 1/2; 211
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-6 1/2); Under
Game 709-710: New Orleans at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 112.452; LA Clippers 112.044
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 199 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 1; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+1); Over
NCAAB
Murray State at California
The Golden Bears look to take advantage of a Murray State team that is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games. California is the pick (-13 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Golden Bears favored by 18 1/2. Dunkel Pick: California (-13 1/2)
Game 711-712: Florida International at North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 49.358; North Carolina 82.875
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 33 1/2
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 31
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-31)
Game 713-714: Murray State at California
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 54.019; California 72.476
Dunkel Line: California by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: California by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: California (-13 1/2)
Game 715-716: Alcorn State at Ohio State
Dunkel Ratings: Alcorn State 31.381; Ohio State 72.083
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 40 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-35 1/2)
Game 717-718: Albany at Syracuse
Dunkel Ratings: Abany 49.817; Syracuse 73.815
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 24
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 20 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-20 1/2)
NHL
Los Angeles at Chicago
The Kings look to build on their 4-1 record in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles is the pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+135)
Game 51-52: Los Angeles at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.553; Chicago 10.825
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+135); Over
DAVE COKIN
PHOENIX SUNS / PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
TAKE: PHOENIX SUNS
The Phoenix Suns are off to a great start and I don't see them getting slowed down tonight in Philly. The 76ers are struggling with their new offense and they aren't likely to be able to defense the Suns well enough to stay close tonight. Both teams played on Sunday so there's no scheduling advantage. I'll go with the hot team and will spot the points with Phoenix.
JIM FEIST
UTAH JAZZ / NEW YORK KNICKS
TAKE: OVER
What in the world happened to the Jazz defense? In fact, can they even spell defense. The Jazz are 22nd in the league in points allowed with a hefty 104.88 ppg average. They are 4-2 Over the number and haven't held any of their first six opponents to less than 96 points. Tonight they face the Knicks who rank 11th in the league in scoring with just over a 100ppg average. If Utah can't spell defense, then the Knicks couldn't spell it if you spotted them the D E F E N and S!! The Knicks are allowing over 105ppg (24th in the league) and haven't held even one of their first seven opponents to under 100 points. Still, after four straight overs to start the season, the Knicks have seen their last three games go UNDER the number. The result is a lower total than my own numbers point to in this contest. We are getting a bit of correction on the part of the linesmaker and this is a good spot to take advantage. In fact, it's not very often that the Knicks have four straight UNDER games. The last 14 times they had a streak of three consecutive under selections they rebounded with a OVER in 10 of those game four situations. That's just the spot we see tonight and with a softer total we look for this one to go OVER the total.
BIG AL
TORONTO RAPTORS / SAN ANTONIO SPURS
TAKE: SAN ANTONIO SPURS
The Spurs have gotten off to a miserable start, which has not been altogether surprising to me, since I forecasted San Antonio to win less than its projected season win total of 54.5 games. That is not to say that I believe San Antonio won't be a force at season's end -- I definitely think it can win the title -- but just that I believed there would be growing pains at the beginning of the year. One trend to note thus far: The Spurs are 2-0 at home, yet 0-3 on the road. That's one reason why I think they'll rebound tonight with a win and cover. Another is that I really like the player that 2nd-year pro George Hill has become. He was lights-out in the Las Vegas Summer League, and coach Gregg Popovich has proclaimed Hill to be his "favorite player." Tonight will be the Spurs' first game without Tony Parker, who suffered an injury early in the loss at Portland. So, Hill will step into the starting point guard role. And, even though Hill is going to be solid on the court for San Antone, there will be line value since most will just focus on the absence of Parker. Additionally, the Spurs are real deep this season, and have more than enough firepower on the bench to make up for Parker's offense (e.g., Manu Ginobili, Roger Mason). But a silver lining might be that it opens the door for more playing time given to the defensive-minded Keith Bogans. And, after Parker's injury, the lineup on Friday that included Bogans, Hill and Richard Jefferson was especially effective, so I expect Popovich to employ that combination at some point tonight. Finally, the Spurs come into tonight's contest with 2 days' of rest and have been a big money-maker in that situation over the last 6+ seasons (86-56 ATS). Take San Antonio.
Doug Williams
Pitts @ Denver
The Broncos are coming off their first loss of the season, and guess what? It won be their last. Injury depleted or not, the Broncos do not have an answer for this pass rush and seconday, Orton has another Orton day.Pittsburgh Covers -3
Scott Spreitzer
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Albany at Syracuse
Prediction: Albany
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This is one of those cases where the line was set solely on reputation and public perception when Syracuse was opened as a 24-point favorite. The money has gone the other way and I agree with the move...and think it's still too high. Syracuse lost a lot from last season and they aren't going to kick it into gear overnight. Jonny Flynn, Paul Harris, and Eric Devendorf each left school early. While Jim Boeheim always seems to reload rather than rebuild, it's not going to be so easy in the early going. Losing Flynn really hamstrings the Orange at the PG position. He filled the spot over the last couple of years, and now will be replaced by a player who saw no court time a season ago, or by a true freshman. Scoop Jardine was hoping to take over the starting role. He didn't play last season due to an injury. In all likelihood, Jardine would just be keeping the position warm until 6'4 freshman Brandon Triche is ready. Triche started their exhibition game just six days ago. The Orange lost that game to division-II entry, Le Moyne, 82-79. It was their first exhibition loss in six years. What's scary about the results, (other than the loss itself), is that after the game, Le Moyne players were saying that they forced the tempo. That they didn't want to play Syracuse's style and "they" dicated the pace of the game. Syracuse finished with 14 turnovers and shot just 41.8%. While the Orange find their identity, Albany will be looking at this as their biggest game of the season. The America East entry owns solid players at all positions, including a pair of heralded point guards. The Great Danes' backcourt is also young, but will not be overwhelmed by the inexperienced Orange. The team has no less than three players who can stand outside and bomb away from the perimeter, which could definitely frustrate the Syracuse backcourt. And Albany is solid at the "3" and "4." This is not an easy opener for a young Syracuse team. And while they should win the game outright, I believe 20-points is asking too much of them. I'm taking the generous spot with Albany, my first release of the college basketball season.
Tom Freese
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Minnesota at Golden State
Prediction: Under
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Minnesota is 22-6 UNDER their last 29 games as underdogs and they are 8-0 UNDER vs. a team with a win percentage of under 40%. The Timberwolves are 7-0 UNDER their last 7 games as underdogs of 5.0 to 10.5. Golden St is 6-1 UNDER their last 7 and they are 5-2 UNDER their last 7 home games. The Warriors are 6-1 UNDER vs. Northwest Division teams and they are 6-1 UNDER vs. Western Conference teams. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
MTi Sports
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Phoenix Suns at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Under
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The Seventysixers are 0-5 OU (-19.1 ppg) at home after a game in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line and 0-4 OU (-11.0 ppg) since vs non-conference opponent in their first match-up of the season. The Suns are 0-6 OU (-17.6 ppg) when they are playing in at least their fourth straight road game, 0-7 OU (-14.6 ppg) with at most one day of rest after a game on the road in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average and 0-7 OU (-14.1 ppg) on the road with no rest after a win on the road in which Steve Nash had more assists than points. How about going under this number?