EZWINNERS
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Minnesota Timberwolves @ Golden State Warriors
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves +7
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The Golden State defense is giving up 113.5 points per game. The Warriors offense, which is supposed to be their strength, is struggling to score during key moments and is riddled by selfish play. The Warriors are a team in turmoil. Stephen Jackson wants out and Monte Ellis doesn't like playing with Stephen Curry. The Wolves are 5-0 against the spread in their last five trips to Golden State and the Warriors can't be trusted as a home favorite. Take the points.
John Ryan
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Utah Jazz vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks +5.5
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Knicks as they host the Utah Jazz set to start at 7:30 EST. AIS shows a 72% probability that the Knicks will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and has a 51% probability of winning the game. With a total of 210 the tempo will be above average. The AiS shows an 85% probability that the Knicks will score 105 or more points. Note that Utah is just 7-29 ATS (-24.9 Units) when they allow 105 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Phoenix is a solid ball handling team, but the Knicks play these types of teams well. Note that they are a solid 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) versus good ball handling teams committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. Take the Knicks.
LT Profits
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
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The 6-1 Denver Broncos continue to get a lack of respect from the oddsmakers, as they once again find themselves as home underdogs when they host the 5-2 Pittsburgh Steelers Monday night.
This is already the third time this season that the Broncos have been home dogs, and on the first two occasions, they upset the New England Patriots and the Dallas Cowboys. They are allowing 11.0 points per game while going 3-0 at home, and Denver has been equally stingy vs. the run (74.7 rushing yards per game on 3.1 yards per carry) and vs. the pass (198.7 passing yards per game on 5.6 yards per attempt) in this stadium.
Now granted, the Pittsburgh defense will be the best that the Broncs have seen all year to this point, but looking at the home-and-away splits, the Denver defense at home actually grades out better than the Pittsburgh defense on the road. Also, Bronco quarterback has been very efficient with nine touchdown passes vs. just one interception while averaging 7.00 yards per attempt, and we trust him to continue to play error-free ball and not force things vs. this still Steelers defense.
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Also, if the Denver defense can shut down New England here the way the did, we see no reason why they cannot contain a Pittsburgh team that is just 1-2 straight up and 0-3 against the spread on the road so far.
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Look for Denver to again prove the non-believers wrong with yet another home upset.
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Pick: Broncos +3
VEGAS EXPERTS
Utah Jazz at New York Knicks
Sure the Knicks have been horrible this season in getting off to a 1-6 SU/ATS start, but they are 21-10 ATS in non-conference games, including their lone win this year, 117-111 over New Orleans, and have covered four straight vs. Utah. The Jazz are not a good road team going 0-2 SU/ATS away from home this season. A big surprise in the Big Apple Monday night!
Play on: New York
Rocketman Sports
Phoenix Suns vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Phoenix Suns +1
Phoenix is now 6-1 on the season while Philadelphia comes in with a 3-3 overall record this year. Philadelphia is 12-27 ATS since 1996 when the total is 210 or higher. Philadelphia is 3-14 ATS at home since 1996 when the total is 210 or higher. Philadelphia is 23-42 ATS last 3 years against good offensive teams scoring 99 points per game or better. Phoenix is scoring 109.7 points per game overall this year and 105 points per game on the road this season. Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. 76ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. 76ers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. 76ers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference. 76ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Monday games. 76ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. 76ers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. 76ers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss. 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss. 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest. Suns are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Phoenix tonight!
Ben Burns
Los Angeles Kings at Chicago Blackhawks
Prediction: Chicago Blackhawks
The Kings have been among the league's weaker teams for quite a few years now. While this year's team is admittedly improved, this figures to be a tough spot.
The Black Hawks are also an improved team - one which has plenty of good young talent. While they've lost two in a row, both those losses came on the road. Now, they're back home where they've won three straight. For the season, they're 6-2-1 here. They've outscored opponents by a 3.4 to 2.6 margin in those games, outshooting them by a 32.5 to 23 count. The back to back losses should ensure a highly motivated effort.
The Hawks, who last played on Friday, are 29-17 (+10.2) the last 46 times that they played with two day's rest in between games. During the same stretch, they've gone 46-25 (+7.5) when playing a home game with a total of 5.5, including a pair of wins (4-1 and 4-2) over the Kings here last spring. Consider laying the wood.
JR TIPS
HORNETS at CLIPPERS
The Los Angeles Clippers are on a 3-game winning streak although they will try to end a nine-game slide against the Hornets tonight.The Clippers have reeled off three wins in a row including a 113-110 victory over Memphis on Saturday. The Clippers have dropped five in a row to the Hornets at Staples Center since 2006 although a resurgent Chris Kaman could play a major role in ending their losing streak tonight as he leads Los Angeles with averages of 23.0 points and 9.9 rebounds. The Hornets shot a season-low 35.6 percent Sunday losing 104-88 to the Los Angeles Lakers as Chris Paul had a season-low 15 points. New Orleans also lost 107-90 at home to Toronto on Friday and is looking to avoid a three-game slide. Paul leads the Hornets with 26.6 points and 9.7 assists per game while averaging 14.9 points and 11.9 assists during the Hornets' nine-game winning streak against the Clippers. The Hornets are struggling to score and play defense. Playing back to back games with the LA nightlife won't fare well for this team who has no confidence and looking to find their identity. The Clipers meanwhile are playing good basketball and their talent is starting to gel. They will break their losing streak tonight against the Clippers.
TAKE CLIPPERS-1
Jeff Benton
Pittsburgh at DENVER
I’m still on a 13-7 roll with NFL free picks. For Monday, we’ll stay in the NFL and play tonight’s Steelers-Broncos game OVER the posted total.
Simply put, how do you not play the “over” in Monday Night Football? Eight of this year’s nine Monday contests have flown over the total, and all eight would’ve eclipsed tonight’s posted number. Going back to the start of the 2008 NFL season, the over is on an insane 19-5-1! Because of these “over” trends, the oddsmakers have been forced to inflate Monday night totals, but it hasn’t mattered. I don’t think it will matter tonight either, because while both defenses are strong, both offenses are extremely talented with weapons that can break long ones at any moment. Additionally, both sides have playmakers on special teams that have delivered two TD returns for each squad.
The Steelers have scored 20, 28, 28, 27 and 27 points in their last five games (four of the five went “over,” and all five had more than 40 total points), while Denver has scored 20 or more in four of its last six games. Also, the “over” is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these teams, with all six featuring at least 45 combined points, including five with 50 or more combined points.
Finally, the over is on runs of 16-5 for Pittsburgh in AFC contests, 4-1 for Pittsburgh on the road, 15-4-2 for Denver after a SU loss and 3-1-1 for Denver on Monday night. In fact, the only “over” for the Broncos this season occurred three Mondays ago in San Diego, when their 34-23 victory over the Chargers soared over a 44½-point total.
3♦ OVER
Drew Gordon
Toronto at SAN ANTONIO -6
For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Raptors/Spurs match up.
I know, I know, bettors everywhere are excited to take the Raptors plus the points in this contest with Tony Parker out. Rationally, you'd think the Spurs would be a lesser team without their star point guard, which is true, but only in the long-term. In other words, bettors almost always overreact to an injury, when in fact, the line has already been adjusted. Make no mistake, the Spurs will win and cover this contest without Parker, and here's how:
First, this is a BAD situational spot for the Raptors, who are playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights, and could very well fall flat against what will be a highly motivated Spurs team. San Antone is coming off a couple tough losses, and will be happy to return to the friendly confines of the AT&T Center, where they average 113 ppg on 55% shooting! The last time the Raptors played in San Antonio, they got crushed, and I expect more of the same tonight.
Second, if there's one thing the Raps don't do well its play defense, especially on the road, where they're surrendering 111 ppg on 54% shooting. True, its still early on, but did you watch Dallas drop 129 points on this Raptors defense this past Saturday? Guys, the Raptors have some talent, but until they decide to play some D, they are going to lose tough road games like this one.
Finally, while Bargnani and Bosh have both played well, the Spurs have the personnel to match up well with Toronto. San Antonio's bench is deep, even without Parker starting, and we all know Duncan, Jefferson, Ginobili, Hill, and company stress defense, and that'll be the difference here. In the end, it may be tempting to fade the Parker-less Spurs, but buyer beware, San Antone will come to play in this match up.
Take San Antonio over Toronto in this NBA match up.
3♦ SAN ANTONIO
Stephen Nover
New Orleans -2 at L.A. CLIPPERS
I don't especially like the makeup of the Hornets right now. Certainly they haven't played well so far going 2-5, including losing four of their last five games.
But I'm not willing to write off New Orleans yet like the oddsmaker is by opening them an underdog to the Clippers.
The Clippers were favored because they're home and have won three in a row, but the line has shifted the other way.
Let's not get carried away, though. The Clippers lost their first four games. Their win streak has occurred versus Minnesota at home, Golden State and Memphis at home. The combined record of those three teams is 3-16.
The Hornets are nowhere near where they were two years ago. But they aren't as bad as the Clippers. New Orleans has played a tough schedule facing the Spurs, Celtics, Mavericks, Raptors and Lakers last night. The games against San Antonio, Boston and the Lakers were on the road.
The back-to-back situation for New Orleans isn't as daunting as it may seem. The Hornets played the Lakers Sunday night at the Staples Center. That's where this game is. So no travel is involved.
The Hornets have the best point guard in the NBA, Chris Paul. The Clippers don't have anyone who can stop him.
Eric Gordon is doubtful for Los Angeles after suffering a groin injury on Saturday. He's the Clippers' second-leading scorer at 18.9 points per game. It's huge for the Clippers if he doesn't play. I don't the Clippers would want to risk him in such an early-season game.
The Clippers have failed to cover 14 of the last 16 times they've been a home favorite of up to 4 1/2 points.
The Hornets have always matched up well to the Clippers covering the past nine times in the series.
3♦ HORNETS
Tony Weston
The Texans almost had the outright win, but couldn’t do enough to stop Peyton Manning and the Colts. Still, Houston kept it close enough and cashed in as I delivered that winner for you.
I’m giving you another winner as I’m taking the Under on the Broncos-Steelers matchup in this Monday nighter.
Coming into this game the Broncos have stayed Under the Total in 6 of their 7 games overall this season, including each of their 3 at home where they’ve totaled, on average, just 32.3 points per game.
Going back a little further, Denver has stayed Under the Total in 8 of its last 9 home games and has seen the Under come in 5 of its last 6 games against the AFC. Denver has also stayed Under the Total in 4 of its last 5 games when installed as an underdog.
On the other side, the Steelers have stayed Under the Total in 7 of their last 10 games against a team with a winning home record.
Pittsburgh has also stayed Under the Total in 8 of its last 10 games played in Week 9.
These two will keep scoring at a premium as they stay Under the Total in this one.
3♦ STEELERS-BRONCOS UNDER
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the San Antonio Spurs to pound the Toronto Raptors. Remember, I went against the Spurs twice in a row last week and won both games rather easily. Tonight I'm going to side with them as I believe they are feeling a big desperate and match up very well with Toronto. Tim Duncan, even at his age, still plays pretty good defense and I think he's going to be a handful for Chris Bosh... on both ends of the floor. I realize that Tony Parker isn't going to be playing tonight, but wouldn't you think that if it was that big of a deal to Vegas they would adjust their line accordingly? They haven't. That tells me they're begging you to take the overmatched Raptors in this one tonight, but I won't be fooled. San Antonio still has plenty of talent and Greg Poppovich still preaches defense first... something Toronto doesn't begin to know the first thing about. The Spurs are 2-0 at home and 0-3 on the road. Toronto is 2-1 at home but just 1-2 on the road. The Spurs last played the Raptors at home one year ago... San Antonio led by as many as 17 and eventually won by 10. Ginobili and Duncan will be enough tonight... Spurs win by 10.
2♦ SAN ANTONIO