Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday October, 1

Sixth Sense

DALLAS –3.5 Chicago 41.5

The Bears defeated St. Louis last week 23-6 and their defense played well against a Rams offense that is still not that good. Chicago was out rushed 3.5ypr to 3.0ypr but out passed the Rams 5.2yps to 2.5yps. Overall, the Bears out gained the Rams 4.1yppl to 2.8yppl. The Bears sacked the Rams six times in the game.

Dallas got by TB last week in a snoozer, 16-10 but they weren’t very efficient in doing so. They averaged just 1.7ypr while holding TB to just 3.0ypr. Dallas was decent through the air, averaging 6.0yps and holding TB to just 3.0yps. Overall, they out gained TB 4.5yppl to 3.0yppl. Dallas was sacked four times. They scored 13 of their 16 points on drives of 23, 11 and 2 yards. They also allowed a touchdown on a drive of just 29 yards following an interception.

Chicago averages just 3.5ypr against 4.5ypr and 5.4yps against 6.0yps. Overall, their offense is not very good, averaging just 4.5yppl against 5.3yppl. On defense they have been good, allowing 3.8ypr against 3.8ypr and just 4.8yps against 5.6yps. Overall, they allow just 4.5yppl against 5.0yppl. But, their overall defensive numbers are a bit skewed by their performance against the Rams, which have made them look better than they really are. Dallas averages 3.5ypr against 3.2ypr, 6.9yps against 7.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.7yppl. They allow 4.0ypr against 3.9ypr, just 4.7yps against 6.2yps and 4.4yppl against 5.1yppl.

I don’t have any situation on this game. Numbers favor Dallas by 2.5 points and predict about 40 points. The Cowboys have played good defense this year. They allowed just 17 points to a good Giants offense. In their 27 points they allowed at Seattle, 10 of those points came off of turnovers or a blocked punt. We just pointed out above TB scored seven points on a short drive. The Bears have not moved the ball this year either. Indy has a bad defense so we remove that game. The Bears did nothing against the Packers and scored seven of their 23 points on an interception return last week. But, the Bears have also played good defense and Dallas has not shown an ability to move the ball this year either. Best play here is probably the under. DALLAS 21 CHICAGO 17

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Bears at Cowboys
Play: UnderFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 41 points will be scored in this game. The sim shows that Dallas and Chicago will score less than 21 points. In past games where Dallas has scored 15 to 21 points they have posted a 50-25 UNDER mark since 1992. The Bears have posted a 55-30 UNDER record when they have allowed 15 to 21 points in game since 1992.
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Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 71-36 UNDER for 66.4% winners since 2002. Play UNDER the posted total with any team against the total that are off two or more consecutive UNDERS and now facing an opponent off three or more consecutive unders. Of the 107 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 42 of them have gone UNDER the total by seven or more points.
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The Chicago Bears are struggling offensively despite posting a 2-1 record through the first three weeks of the season. There is a very intriguing and contrary statistic involving the Bears offense. On the one hand they rank 29th in the NFL averaging just 4.5 yards-per-play. Yet, on a yards-per-point basis they rank best in the NFL posting an 11.0 ratio. This reflects the fact that Chicago?s defense has forced turnovers giving the offense a short field to operate and enhances the probability of scoring points.
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With that piece of information in hand it is painfully clear to me that the Dallas offensive scheme will be to establish the run and use short slant and out routes to control the clock . This entire scheme will be used to minimize turnovers and to not provide the Bears with a short field for scoring opportunities.
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The Bears will be without Matt Forte and this severely hurts the Bears offensive scheme. This leaves only Michael Bush at running back and he has averaged just 3.5 yards-per-carry on 44 attempt for the season. Cutler needs to be able to use play action to generate vertical play routes. If he does not have that option, then all that will be left or slants, ins, and bubble screen passes to minimize the Dallas defensive front seven pressure.
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When these two schemes matchup, it gives the immediate feel of a field possession type of game and one where both teams are not going to take risks with vertical pass routes. Misdirection plays may be the most run play by both teams.
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Dallas is a solid 10-2 UNDER facing teams who force 2.75 or more turnovers per game on the season since 1992; 15-5 UNDER in home games vs. poor passing teams with a completion percentage of 53% or worse. since 1992. Moreover, Dallas is 17-6 UNDER in home games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. I believe this last game situation reinforces Dallas? commitment to the running game, especially after a game where the run game struggled to get established. Take the UNDER for a 10* Play.

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Chicago Bears at Dallas CowboysFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Chicago BearsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bears rebounded from their lethargic effort against the Packers two weeks ago with a solid 23-6 win versus St. Louis last Sunday -- and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than two touchdowns in their last game. Additionally, the Bears have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 appearances on Monday Night Football. Dallas (2-1) comes off a 16-10 win versus Tampa Bay as a 9-point favorite. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up victory. Dallas has also failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 7 games after holding their previous opponent to less than 15 points. And in their last 7 appearances on Monday Night Football, Dallas has failed to cover the spread in 6 of these occasions. In a game expected to be very close, the value is to take the points with a live Chicago team that could very well walk away with the win. Take Chicago plus the points.

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Detroit vs. Kansas City
Pick: DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Tigers' (86-73) Rick Porcello (9-12, 4.68 ERA) is set to square off against the Royals' (71-68) Bruce Chen (11-13, 5.13 ERA) on the mound this evening.
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Porcello earned a no-decision vs. the Royals last Wednesday. He'll be looking to atone for his sub-par effort when he gave up four runs off seven hits over four frames in his team's eventual 5-4 victory; he struck out three and walked no one. Porcello has looked brilliant at times this season, and very pedestrian at others. He'll be looking to build upon his 5-6, 4.63 ERA road record.
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Chen gave up ten hits over 6 2/3's frames, giving up two earned runs in a loss to Detroit on Tuesday; he walked three and struck out five. Chen is 7-4 with a 4.24 ERA home record.
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This is a pivotal game and series for the Tigers as they are looking to secure a playoff berth for a second straight season, something the club hasn't done in 77 years.
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Detroit is now three games ahead of the White Sox in the AL Central after yesterday's 2-1 win over the Twins. A victory tonight, or a loss by Chicago in Cleveland, and the Tigers are in the postseason.
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I believe they won't let "chance" have an opportunity, and expect slugger Miguel Cabrera and company to be ultra focused this evening.
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These team's are clearly moving in opposite directions, as the Tigers have won six of their last seven, while the Royals have lost seven of eight, including a 15-3 beatdown at the hands of the Indians yesterday.
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The strong motivational factors, coupled with what I deem to be a very reasonable line, all point to a play on Detroit!

Scott SpreitzerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Reds at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis CardinalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cardinals' magic number is two as they look to grab the final NL wildcard spot. Garica is certainly a pitcher the team likes having on the mound in this situation. The lefthander owns a 2.83 ERA & 1.28 WHIP in eight home starts this season. He's allowed just 4 earned runs, 18 base runners, and 1 home run in his last three starts, spanning 19 innings, for a 1.89 ERA & 0.95 WHIP. Garcia owns strong overall career numbers against the Reds. Cincinnati still has something to play for, tied with Washington for the best overall record in the NL. But they have dropped each of Arroyo's last three starts and the team he faces tonight is 48-30 at home, including 6-1 in their last seven, outscoring the opposition, 45-21! The Redbirds are on a 5-0 run in Garcia's last five home starts against Cinci, and I'm betting they'll extend that run to 6-0 with a win on Monday.

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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees -1½
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The Yankees are in a big Fight for the Division with a Baltimore team that wont go away. New York returns home for Boston in what usually would be a big series. With Boston ending a mediocre season and the Yankees with staff ace Samathia on the mound we will make the runs line play knowing that Sabathia is 18-1 in the first game of a series if he is favored, on regular rest and allowed 6 or less runs last out. Boston has Buchholz going tonight and he was roughed up pretty good in his lone start this season vs the Yanks allowing 6 runs in 6 innings. With the Yankees the #2 ranked offense we will back them to get the win by more than a run tonight.

Dave CokinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Dodgers need to sweep the Giants and hope the Cardinals lose two against the Reds. Definite long shot. But LA has won five straight, so they are go with as long as they have life. Tough task against Cain, but I'll side with the Dodgers.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tigers at Royals
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The Detroit Tigers are on the verge of their 2nd consecutive AL Central title. However, they will have to reply on Rick Porcello here on Monday and the way he's pitched of late, that might not be an easy task. Porcello is 9-12 this year with a 4.68 ERA, but has lost six straight decisions and not won a game in nine starts. Bruce Chen will oppose for the Royals with a 11-13 mark and 5.13 ERA. But the bigger story might be Miguel Cabrera for the Tigers who is in pursuit of the Triple Crown. Cabrera won't be sitting out any games in this last series as he looks to grab this historic title. But on Monday, look for this game to go OVER.

Wunderdog

Houston at Chicago Cubs
Pick: Chicago Cubs -110

It has been a long season for both these teams and the Houston Astros have endured thair second straight 100 loss season. It is impossible to back Houston on the road with their 18-60 road mark particularly at almost even odds. The Cubs have to sweep to avoid the 100 loss mark and they have been a decent team at home where they are 37-41 on the season. The Astros haven't fared much better on the road vs. a losing team where they are 12-40 in their last 52. The Cubs aren't posted as home chalk often, but have been a profitable 11-5 in their last 16 in this role. Play on the Cubs in this one.

SPORTS WAGERS

DALLAS -3 -120 over Chicago

The 2-1 Bears have two big wins at home against weak opponents (Indy and St. Louis) and then got beat big on the road in Green Bay. The win over the Rams was a letdown spot for the guest after they rallied from a big deficit to beat the Redskins. Despite being 2-1, the Bears look like anything but contenders with an array of issues. Jay Cutler has struggled in the last two games, failing to exceed 183 yards passing and tossing for just one score. He was intercepted four times in Green Bay and once by the visiting Rams. Worse yet, Cutler has been sacked 11 times this season while being hit hard far more times than that. The offensive line continues to be a major issue and facing the Cowboys in Dallas is not going to do anything to improve the blocking.

The ‘Boys 2-1 record isn’t thrilling either. They were whacked by Seattle in between wins over the Giants and Bucs. The season opening win against New York was impressive while the other two games were not. However, the Cowboys defense has been outstanding and now they’ll face a Bears club that is likely going to be without Matt Forte. Even if Forte goes, he’ll be at half speed. Dallas has weapons which will go off sometime soon.

The Bears defense has also been good but the problem is they could be on the field for an extended period of time and that’s grating to a stop unit. With Chicago taking to the road and it’s offence struggling, facing the best secondary they’ve seen yet does not bode well for them here. While the price seems fair, it may turn out to be rather cheap and that’s the side we’re far more comfortable endorsing.

CLEVELAND +106 over Chicago

Speaking of teams that choked when it mattered most, one need not look further than these White Sox, who have dropped 10 of their past 12 games to fall three games behind the Tigers with three games left. Detroit closes out the season with three against the Royals.

Instead of going with someone they can rely on, the South Side will turn to Hector Santiago’s wildness to try and keep their faint hopes alive. Santiago has walked 39 in 63 frames. He made a start against Cleveland last week, lasting only 3.1 innings while allowing five hits, four BB’s, and three earned runs. His xERA in three starts is 7.52. He also has an unfavorable fly-ball bias profile and while he has some upside with a good strikeout rate, you can’t keep falling behind hitters at this level and expect positive results.

Corey Kluber’s expected results are much better with a groundball bias profile, 16 walks in 57 frames and 48 K’s over that same span. Kluber’s ERA is 5.02 but an xERA of 3.41 over the his past four starts reveals just how much upside the kid has. The Indians second half will go down as one of the worst ever. A little satisfaction by officially eliminating the White Sox would be a fun way to close out this forgettable season for the Tribe. With a pitching matchup in our favor, we'll lean that way.

San Diego +150 over MILWAUKEE

The Brewers never really got it going until September when they were on a 17-4 run to close within 2½ games of a Wild Card birth. Then, when it counted most, they proceeded to lose five of their past six games, including two of three this past weekend at home to the hapless Astros. How does that happen? Now they’re being asked to spot -160 when morale is shot and the season is over. In terms of psychological edge, give a big advantage to the visitor.

The Padres season was over in May but they refuse to quit. They’re coming off seven games against the Dodgers and Giants in which they went a respectable 3-4 against some of the best pitchers in the game. They should find the going a little easier against Shaun Marcum. Marcum’s batted ball profile of 35% groundballs, 23% line-drives and 41% fly-balls makes him a big risk at this price. Pitching with nothing on the line for the first time all season increases that risk.

Clayton Richard doesn’t strike out as many as we’d like but he did ride elite control and a 54% groundball rate to a respectable season (3.91 ERA, 1.23 WHIP). This wager, however, is more predicated on the Brewers lack of interest after losing 7-0 to the Astros yesterday and being officially eliminated after 159 games.

MLB Predictions

Oakland Athletics -134

This series is going to be a good one, as the Athletics still have a shot at winning the AL West division with a sweep of the Rangers. This should have a playoff type feel to it, as neither team will want to play in a one game elimination on Friday. The Rangers managed to split their double header yesterday vs the Angels and are now just 2-4 over their last 6 games. Oakland swept away Seattle at home over the weekend and are 5-1 over their last 6 games. These two teams met last week in Texas with a 2-2 split in their four game series. Oakland has scored 5+ runs in 5 straight games, where they are averaging 7.2 runs per game. The Rangers have had troubles scoring runs lately despite a line up full of good hitters. The Rangers have scored 4 or fewer runs in 10 of their last 14 games. We will see the same pitching match up we saw in Texas on the 26th of September, where the Athletics won 9-3. Tonight Martin Perez will be on the mound for Texas. He is 1-3 on the season with a 5.03 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and .291 opponents batting average split between time as a starter and a reliever. As a starter he is 1-3 with a 5.32 ERA. His last start came against Oakland where he didn't even make it out of the first inning giving up 6 hits and 5 earned runs. That start followed a 4 inning outing where he allowing 6 hits and 3 earned runs. Starting for Oakland will be Jarrod Parker who is 12-8 with a 3.44 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .248 opponents batting average on the year. His last start was good enough for the win in Texas as he went 6 innings giving up 5 hits and 3 earned runs. That start was He pitches better at home where he is 5-5 with a low 2.49 ERA. Take note that the Rangers are just 3-9 in their last 12 games as a road underdog, and 2-6 in their last 8 games following a win. The Athletics are 54-26 in their last 80 games overall, 36-15 in their last 51 home games, and 17-6 in their last 23 home games vs a team with a winning road record. The A's are also 6-2 in Parker's last 8 starts, while Texas is 0-4 in Perez's last 4 starts. Oakland is 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs Texas, and I like them to win again tonight with a favorable pitching match up.

Jimmy Boyd

San Francisco Giants -114

The Giants have remained focused despite clinching the NL West quite some time ago. They have won 14 of their last 18 games, and I expect them to keep rolling with ace Matt Cain on the mound.

The Giants have won each of Cain's last three starts and eight of his last nine, during which he has given up two runs or fewer eight times. The Giants are 5-0 in Cain's last 5 road starts. The Dodgers have dropped five of Aaron Harang's last six starts overall and each of his last six at home.

Cain has also had plenty of success against the Dodgers, and the Giants are 6-2 in his last 8 starts against them as a result. He has posted a 2.08 ERA during this span. The Giants are 4-0 in his last 4 road starts versus the Dodgers. Take San Francisco.

Dave Price

Detroit Tigers -128

Detroit has won six of seven while Kansas City has dropped seven of eight. The Tigers have also won 11 of 15 in the season series and are 5-1 in Porcello's last 6 starts versus the Royals. Take the Tigers.

Jack Jones

Detroit Tigers -127

The Detroit Tigers will be playing for the AL Central crown tonight. A win and they'll be going to the postseason as they sit three games ahead of the Chicago White Sox within the division. Behind that motivation, I look for the Tigers to get the job done tonight.

Detroit has come up big down the stretch, winning six of its last seven games overall. That includes a 4-game sweep of these same Kansas City Royals last week. The Royals have clearly packed it in, losing seven of their last eight games overall.

The Tigers also have a slight edge on the mound with Rick Porcello (4.67 ERA in 30 starts) over Bruce Chen (5.13 ERA in 33 starts) in this one. Chen is 5-6 with a 5.29 ERA in 15 career starts against Detroit, and Porcello is 5-3 with a 4.71 ERA in 14 career starts against Kansas City.

The Tigers are 23-9 in Porcello's last 32 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Detroit is 5-0 in its last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Royals are 0-6 in Chen's last 6 starts during game 1 of a series. The Tigers are 5-1 in Porcello's last 6 starts vs. Royals. Bet Detroit Monday.