Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, October 10

Rob Vinciletti

Vancouver Canucks vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Play: Vancouver Canucks

Vancouver comes in off a loss in their opener to the Penguins on Thursday night. They play this one with 3 days rest. A role they have relished the past 3 years. The Canucks are 16-2 with 3+ days rest.. Tonight they play Columbus. The Blue Jackets have lost their first two games at home vs Washington and then at Minnesota. They play this one knowing they have struggled vs Vancouver, losing 7 of the last eight in the series. Look for another Vancouver win here tonight. Take the Canucks.

BEN BURNS

Carolina Hurricanes @ New Jersey Devils
PICK: New Jersey Devils

Neither team is off to the start it hoped for. The Devils are 0-1, having fallen 3-0 to the Flyers. The Hurricanes are in worse shape, already sitting at 0-2. While both teams should be highly motivated to earn their first "W," I feel the price is fairly reasonable on the home team.

The Devils have dominated the Hurricanes here over the years. They're 26-13 with one tie the last 40 meetings here, including 5-0 the last five here.

Hedberg will apparently get the call for the Devils and he was 3-0-0 with a superb 1.64 goals-against average in three starts against the 'Canes last season.

New Jersey got off to a terrible start last season and was forced to fight an uphill battle the rest of the way. The Devils badly wants to avoid a similar fate and I look for them to "go all out" here. Consider backing the home team.

Jim Feist

Tigers vs Rangers
Pick: Under

Game 2 of the series was rained-out on Sunday, meaning that after tonight's game, there won't be a travel day on Tuesday. Instead, the teams will play game 3 on Tuesday in Detroit. This is actually good news for the Tigers, who get an extra days rest for their hard throwing right-hander, Max Scherzer. Scherzer is a big reason the Tigers advanced to the ALCS, pitching some great middle relief in game five of the ALDS at New York. Scherzer pitched great against the Yankees, starting and going six strong innings, holding the Yankees to just two hits and no runs. Then he came back and pitched a nice 1 1/3 innings of game five. Derek Holland will toe the rubber for the Rangers in game 2. Holland was 16-5 this season with a 3.95 ERA. Holland also had a strong ALDS, pitching 6 1/3 innings, allowing seven hits and just one earned run. The 24-year old beat the Rays and then got a hold in relief. Two strong pitchers here in game two. With two strong pitchers again here matching up, I look for a game similar to the first game, low scoring and close. I'm taking the UNDER in game 2.

SPORTS WAGERS

Toronto +13 over MONTREAL

The Argonauts are the laughing stock of the CFL but they’re not far off from being competitive. In fact, they’ve been very competitive on the road this year. In their last game in Saskatchewan, the Argos were down by three with seconds left when a pick-six made them a 10-point loser. They were the better team that day. Prior to that they lost in B.C but everyone is losing to the Lions these days and Toronto was the last team to hold B.C to under 30 points. The Boatmen’s other two road games recently saw them lose in Edmonton by a point and in Hamilton by five points. The Als are not as dominant as years gone by and they're really not in any desperation mode right now. They’ve won three of their past four games and they have a big game up next week against the smack-talking Tigercats, a team they would rather beat than any other. The Argos defense is solid and their offense, although a big work in progress, is showing signs of snapping out of it. Argos keep this one close. Play: Toronto +13 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2 units).

EDMONTON –6½ over Saskatchewan

The Riders are in too much turmoil right now to get an endorsement. They’ve dropped their last two games by a combined score of 82-8 and that has to wreak havoc on a team’s psyche and confidence. Usually teams will bounce back after a blowout but Saskatchewan did nothing of the sort. Instead they got blown out worse last week in Calgary. They’ll travel again to Edmonton to take on an Eskies squad that came within a point of beating the scorching hot Lions. Under normal circumstances, the Roughriders would be a play taking back these points against a team that is not in the habit of winning big. In fact, Edmonton has dropped six of its last eight games and five of those six losses were by double digits. However, they also played Montreal twice, B.C. twice, Calgary twice, Hamilton and Winnipeg over those past eight games and that group is undoubtedly the leagues best. Finally, Edmonton gets a break and a big step down in class against a reeling Riders club that is decimated by injuries and that has mentally written off the season and checked out. Play: Saskatchewan –6½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

EZWINNERS

Detroit Tigers +130

The Rangers and CJ Wilson got by Detroit's ace Justin Verlander 3-2 in game one of this series, but I like the Tigers to even things up in game two. The Tigers had a statistical dominance over the Rangers in the regular season and I like the Tigers offense to come to life against another Texas lefty Derrick Holland. Detroit's slugger Miguel Cabrera hit .421 against Texas in the regular season and had an OPS of 1.016 and I expect him to get it going and be the spark in game two. I also expect Detroit's starting pitcher Max Scherzer to have a dominate performance. Scherzer was lights out against the Yankees and should be full of confidence and I look for that to continue. The rainout and extra day of rest is also a plus for Scherzer. Play on Detroit.

Vegas Experts

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

You just can't go against the Brewers here at home, particularly when the Cardinals had their shot yesterday and blew it. Milwaukee had the best home record in MLB during the regular season and is now a perfect 4-0 during the playoffs at Miller Park. They are now an awesome 82-35 when favored this year, including 53-17 in the -125 to -175 price range. Cardinals starter Edwin Jackson had one of the worst starts of his career earlier in the year here at Miller Park, giving up 10 runs, eight of them earned, and a career high 14 hits.

Play on: Milwaukee

SPORTS WAGERS

Colorado +213 over BOSTON

Considering they won the Cup last year and played well into June, the Bruins are showing no signs of a Cup hangover. They looked good in their season opener against Philly and looked much better in their next game, a 4-1 win against the Lightning. The Avalanche were shutout in their season debut against the Red Wings. That shutout loss combined with a rough second half last year has them undervalued. Colorado has talent, make no mistake about that. Paul Stastny, Matt Duschene, T.J. Galiardi and Ryan O’Reilly all have the potential to be outstanding high-end talent. Rookie Gabriel Landeskog is everything they said he was and more. Man, can this guy skate and play. On defense, Jan Hejda, Matt Hunwick, Kyle Quincey and Erik Johnson are all solid, puck moving D-men. The Avalanche might surprise a few folks this year. We also love the fact that they embark on a five-game trip beginning today with this one. We can almost guarantee a strong effort from this group. Said Kyle Quincey, “We’re looking forward to bonding with the new guys and becoming a family — because that’s how you win.” Quincey and coach Joe Sacco both stressed how beneficial a tough, early road trip can be to a team. The Av’s may not win but this is a great price in a good spot and it would not be a bit of a surprise to catch the B’s flat. Play: Colorado +213 (Risking 2 units).

Carolina +120 over NEW JERSEY

There’s going to be a lot of teams fighting for playoff spots come March and the Hurricanes figure to be one of them. They’re off to a tough 0-2 start but they were a lot sharper in game two vs. the Caps than they were in their opener against Tampa. Carolina lost that opener 5-1 but that score is misleading. So, after dropping its first two against the top two teams in the division, Carolina now gets to take on a Devils club that is about as beatable as any team in the NHL. The Devils are offensively challenged, their goaltending is weak and when they’re favored, they’re a big risk. Trying to predict the outcomes of games is next to impossible. There is no crystal ball in the world that can predict the things that happen in a given sporting event. A late penalty, a couple of 5 on 3’s, a soft goal let in, a bad bounce, a four-minute power-play, etc, etc, etc. The right approach is to find value, bet it and let the chips fall where they may. When the Devils are favored, wagering against them is true value because they’re very likely going to lose a lot more games than they win. Play: Carolina +120 (Risking 2 units).

ST. LOUIS -½ +125 over Calgary

If they stay healthy the St. Louis Blues a playoff team that could do some serious damage. Jaroslav Halak learned the role of being a #1 goaltender last year and he should be better off this year. The Blue Notes added a strong veteran presence in Jason Arnott and Jamie Lagenbrunner. They also have Chris Stewart and Kevin Shattenkirk, the two players acquired in the Erik Johnson deal. Andy MacDonald and T.J. Oshie are both healthy and that duo along with Brad Boyes are all top-tier NHL talent. Watch out for Oshie this year. The Blue Notes lost their opener 4-2 at home against the Preds. That was Saturday’s most misleading score, as St. Louis dominated play from start to finish but ran into a red-hot Pekka Rinne. The Flames also dropped their opener to Pittsburgh by a score of 5-3, which looks a lot better on paper than it was. Calgary was dominated from start to finish and probably should’ve lost by five goals. The Flames are loaded with a bunch of aging vets like Alex Tanguay, Jerome Iginla, Cory Sarich, Brendan Morrison, Ollie Jokinen, Niklas Hagman, Scott Hannan and goaltender Mikka Kiprusoff who is 34 and has played a ton of minutes over the years. A heavy turnover is forthcoming over the next couple of years because other than experience, the Flames offer up very little. There are holes everywhere for the Flames and those holes will be exposed constantly until major changes are made. The Blue Notes are a whole lot better than most think and now is the time to “buy low”. Play: St. Louis –½ +125 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Chicago +6 over DETROIT

When was the last time the Lions played a meaningful prime-timer? Motown should be jubilant but we can’t ignore Detroit’s slow starts, requiring unprecedented comeback wins in successive games. The Bears can be erratic but they’ve faced some stiff competition, which should have them battled-tested for this divisional romp. Sometimes a team can be a little too jacked up, as we saw with the Winnipeg Jets last night and it becomes a hindrance instead of a benefit. We’re really not sure how good the Bears are with expected losses to New Orleans and Green Bay and wins over Atlanta and Carolina. What we do know is that the Bears usually don’t get blown away and they’ll be just as jacked up as the Lions. The six points being offered could certainly factor in and thus, we’re leaning Bears. Play: Chicago (No bets).

St. Louis +127 over MILWAUKEE

It’s really a huge mystery as to why the Brewers can’t lose at home and can’t win on the road. Regardless of that, Shaun Marcum is not in good form at all while Edwin Jackson is in great form. Marcum went just 5-4 at Miller Park this year with an ERA of 4.81 in 17 starts. That’s five wins in 17 starts for a team that went 57-24 at home. Marcum also allowed 14 bombs at home and that’s what you get with a guy that has a high 43% fly-ball rate against a 37% groundball rate. In his one playoff start against the Snakes, Marcum was whacked to the tune of seven hits and seven runs in 4.2 frames. He also walked three, struck out three and gave up a granny. Marcum now has a 6.62 ERA over his past three starts. Edwin Jackson was brilliant in his crucial start against Philly. He went six full and allowed just five hits and two runs. The more this guy pitches under the guidance of Cardinal pitching coach Dave Duncan, the better he gets. Jackson has a nice edge over Marcum and in playoff baseball, as we keep learning year after year after year, pitching is everything. Play: St. Louis +127 (Risking 2 units).

WEST CAPPER

TIGERS @ RANGERS

After beating ace Justin Verlander in a rain-induced game on Saturday, the Rangers look to go up 2-0 in the series at home. The Tigers lose Ordonez and with Delmon Young being limited by an injury, the bats of the powerful Tigers just took a bit hit.

Holland starts for the Rangers and while he has a significantly higher ERA at home, Holland went 10-1 with a 2.77 in his final 15 starts of the season, and the Tigers didn’t see him this season. Scherzer was one of the hero’s for the Tigers against the Yankees, but now he goes on short rest and will his road numbers aren’t very impressive this year (5.24 ERA on the road).

Ron Washington says he will not use Ogando today if needed, but the Texas bullpen is solid without him. The big X factor in today’s game is Delmon Young. He is in the original submitted lineup (hitting third), but he is still a game-time decision. The Tigers will prepare for the game and see if Delmon can play, if he can’t, then Andy Dirks takes his place. Delmon Young is the only player on the Tigers roster that has had brief success against Holland, so his playing is key for the Tigers.

Detroit struck out 14 times in game one, largely due to the cutter of CJ Wilson. With Ordonez out now, their offense takes a major step back. Texas is one of the best teams at home, and -140 is great value here. Take the Rangers for 4* if Young is out and 3 if Young is in the lineup. I have a feeling he tries to play through the pain in a big game like this. I also like the over 9 runs for 1* unit.

CARDINALS @ BREWERS

The Brewers are 29-10 this year when the roof is open (as expected in game two). The Brewers are the best home team in baseball in 2011, and are 4-0 during the postseason at Miller Park.

Both teams should be very familiar with the opposing starter today, as the Brewers faced Edwin Jackson four times in 2011, and the Cardinals faced Shawn Marcum four times.

Jackson has pitched well down the stretch, and Marcum has allowed 5+ runs in 4 of his last 5 starts.

The Brewers need to win this game before heading to St. Louis to face Carpenter, but this game is a true toss-up. I do like the over if it can drop to 8 runs, because it’s a little inflated right now because of the fireworks in game one. If it drops to 8 runs, I’ll take the over for 1* unit.

David Banks

Bears / Lions Over

Week 5 of the 2011 NFL season closes shop at Ford Field where the Detroit Lions (4-0, 3-0-1 ATS) will look to remain unblemished and improve to 2-0 within the NFC North when it battles the Chicago Bears (2-2, 1-3 ATS) under the bright lights of Monday Night Football; kick-off is set for 8:30 ET on ESPN.

Though it was far from pretty, head coach Lovie Smith’s outfit evened up its 2011 campaign at 2-2 with a 34-29 home win and non-cover against Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers last week. Chicago was aided by a defensive and special teams score in accruing its highest point total of the young season. Though they ended up with the higher tally on the scoreboard, the way the Bears went about their business was most disturbing. For starters, Chicago gave up an unheard of 543 yards to an offense led by a rookie quarterback; something their Cover 2 scheme is supposed to limit. Offensively, RB Matt Forte had his biggest game of the season going off for 205 yards and a score on 25 carries, but QB Jay Cutler only threw for 102 yards and tossed yet another head scratching interception to what looked to be a wide open receiver. Chicago was embarrassed in its lone road game to date, falling 30-13 in its trip to the bayou against the New Orleans Saints.
Can you name the last team to defeat the Detroit Lions in a game of any kind? If you guessed the Chicago Bears… you are right! That loss came in Week 13 of last season when Chicago swept the season series with a 24-20 win at Ford Field. Since then, the Lions have gone a dominating 12-0 not only SU but ATS as well; that mark includes this year’s four preseason games. Coach Jim Schwartz and his staff simply have this club playing with their hair on fire extremely evidenced by the fact that it enters this Week 5 spot off back-to-back come from behind wins on the road at Minnesota and Dallas. Last week’s 34-30 outright road win and cover as three-point underdogs in Big D was a marvel in and of itself. The secret to Detroit’s success has been its ability to put points on the board (#2 at 33.8 PPG) as well as limit its opponents from scoring (#8 at 19 PPG). This will be the franchise’s first appearance on Monday Night Football since the 2001 season.

The Bears have dominated these division rivals recent series winning each of the L/6 match-ups (3-3 ATS) and have won by an average score of 32-17 their L/3 trips to Ford Field. Chicago’s also won six of its L/7 Monday night appearances, but stands just 1-4 ATS the L/5 times it was installed a road underdog in the 3.5-7 point range. Detroit’s covered each of its L/4 as a home chalk and has gone 13-3-2 ATS the L/18 times when facing NFC opposition. However, the underdog has covered 10 of these teams L/14 overall meetings, while the ‘over’ has cashed in four of the L/5.