Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, October 11,2010

LT Profits

Giants / Braves Under 7

Derek Lowe of the Atlanta Braves has been great since recuperating from a sore shoulder, as he was one of the best pitchers in baseball during the month of September, while young southpaw Madison Bumgarner has also pitched well for the San Francisco Giants and is facing a struggling Atlanta lineup, so do not look for much scoring at Turner Field Monday night.

The bookmakers have installed a total of 7 for this contest, with the betting odds on the ‘under’ set at an underdog price of +100.

Lowe was simply sensational down the stretch, going a perfect 5-0 in five September starts while posting a 1.17 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, and he also had outstanding command, with an unbelievable 29 strikeouts vs. three walks in 30.2 innings. He also pitched well enough to win Game 1 of this series, allowing only one run and four hits in 5.1 innings, but he had the misfortune of running into Tim Lincecum in an unlucky 1-0 loss.

Lowe is now pitching on three days rest, but he has flourished on short rest in the past, going 5-1 in his career when pitching with three days rest or less, including 1-0 in the playoffs. Lowe is a sinkerball pitcher, and those types of hurlers oftentimes pitch better when they are a tad tired, as that usually results in more sink on their pitchers. Lowe’s numbers seem to bare this out and his Big Game experience also helps here as he tries to save the Braves’ season.

Young Bumgarner is trying to close this series out for San Francisco with the Giants up 2-1 in the NLDS, but that should actually mean he has less pressure than if it was the Giants that were down 2-1, as it is comforting to know that if the Giants do lose this game, they have Lincecum waiting in the wings for Game 5.

That said, Bumgarner posted a very good 3.00 ERA in 18 starts this year, and he too finished the season strong, as he closed out with by allowing two runs or less in each of his last six starts. This is also his first career start vs. the Braves, which works to his advantage, and he is facing an Atlanta lineup that is batting just .222 over the last 10 games including a putrid .202 vs. left-handed pitchers.

Finally, the San Francisco bullpen has posted a great 1.96 ERA in their last 10 games while the Atlanta pen had posted a fine 3.03 ERA during this same time, so it is unlikely there will be many tack-on runs late that would blow up the ‘under’ at a fairly low number like this.

Therefore, look for the third ‘under’ in the first (and possibly only) four games of this series.

BIG AL

Giants @ Braves
PICK: Over 7

So far, things are going pretty much according to plan in the 2010 MLB playoffs. The two "beasts of the easts", the Yankees and Phillies have wrapped up their series over the Twins and Reds respectively and will get some time off, while the other two series are providing at least a little drama. The Giants will be looking to put away the Braves tonight on the road, and they're going to take at least a little bit of a gamble by starting young southpaw Madison Bumbarner and preserving Tim Lincecum for a game five if needed. Bumgarner received very generous run support in his recent road starts as the Giants scored a total of 52 runs in the rookie lefthander's ten starts away from San Francisco in the 2010 regular season. Postseason runs have been hard to come by, but the Giants will be hoping to boost the youngster's confidence by giving him some support early in his first-ever playoff start. The Braves will turn to game one starter Derek Lowe, and although his team gave him no run support whatsoever in his first start, that was almost totally due to the fact that Lincecum also started that game, and in fact in his last six regular season outings, the Braves scored a total of 36 runs, so expect them to be much closer to those types of numbers tonight. Even with the low scores in games one and three, the over is still 8-2 in the last 10 Atlanta playoff games. Take the 'over.'

JIM FEIST

GIANTS / BRAVES
TAKE: UNDER

The Atlanta Braves season is one game away from over after they blew a ninth inning lead on Sunday to the Giants. It was a bit of payback after the Braves took game two off a late inning Rick Ankiel home run. On Sunday, the Giants were down to their last out before stringing together three hits and scoring the go ahead run on Brooks Conrads' third error of the game. The Braves can ill afford their defensive lapses that have plagued them of late, considering they are hiting a paltry .165 against the Giants in this series. The Giants have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, but will forgo ace Tim Lincecum here in favor of Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner hasn't pitched in nearly two weeks, but he was very solid in his last outing, giving up one run and striking out seven in five innings of a 4-1 win over Arizona. Derek Lowe has been solid at home this year, going 10-5. Lowe is used to going on three days rest and in his career has a solid 3.28 ERA when piching on short rest. This has been a solid under series and I don't see that changing here on Monday. I'm sticking UNDER again.

EZWINNERS

Giants @ Braves Under 7

This should be a low scoring affair as Derek Lowe takes the mound for the Braves and Madison Bumgarner gets the start for the Giants. Lowe pitched well in his first start in this series only allowing one earned run and Bumgarner has been a better pitcher on the road this season than he has at home. The Braves are in a funk offensivly in this series and the Giants have struggled to score all season. Expect more of the same in this game. The Under is 13-3 in Bumgarner's last sixteen starts when the game total set between 7 and 8.5 and the Under is 9-2 in Lowe's last eleven starts against a team with a winning record. Play on the UNDER.

Chuck O'Brien

San Francisco at ATLANTA

For today’s complimentary selection, take the Giants-Braves game UNDER the posted total. Not much explanation needed here, as it’s been a very low-scoring postseason so far. Of the 13 playoff games to this point, nine have stayed under the total with one push. Not only that, but those nine “unders” have featured an average of just five runs per game. And even if you factor in the three “overs” and the one push, the first 13 postseason contests have had an average of 5.7 runs per game.

Two of the first three games of this Braves-Giants series have stayed low, the lone exception begin in Game 2 when Atlanta scored three runs in the eighth inning and one in the 11th to rally from a 3-1 deficit. The under is now 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these pitching-rich squads, including 4-1 at Turner Field.

San Francisco lefty Madison Bumgarner gets the start in this one, and from Aug. 31 till the end of the regular season he gave up just six runs and seven walks in 38 innings (1.42 ERA). And in his final four road starts, he allowed three runs in 28 1/3 innings for a 0.95 ERA, pitching at least seven innings in each game.

Meanwhile, the Braves are going with Game 1 starter Derek Lowe, who held San Francisco to just one run on four hits in 5 1/3 innings Thursday but suffered a 1-0 defeat. Lowe’s last six starts – like Bumgarner’s – have all been gems (five runs allowed in 36 innings for a 1.25 ERA). And since the start of 2007, Lowe has a sub-2.25 ERA in 11 starts against the Giants. Three of those games have been played this year, with Lowe yielding just four runs in 16 1/3 innings (2.20 ERA).

The under is 8-2 in San Francisco’s last 10 games overall, 8-2 in Atlanta’s last 10 and 8-3 in the Braves’ last 11 at home.

3♦ UNDER

Bobby Maxwell

San Francisco (+135) at ATLANTA

Tonight, I'm going to the playoff diamond and grabbing the plus-money with the Giants as they will close out this series with the Braves in Atlanta.

I’m expecting the Giants to get a great start from Madison Bumgarner (7-6, 3.00 ERA) and the Giants tonight in Atlanta and I expect them to wrap up this series today.

Bumgarner was almost perfect down the stretch for the Giants, allowing two runs or less in his last six starts, including a huge start in his last one, coming Sept. 30 at home when he allowed just one run in five innings of a 4-1 win in Arizona. This guy went 6-3 on the road this season with a 1.91 ERA but this is his first time pitching in Atlanta.

Derek Lowe (16-12, 4.00 ERA) is slated to go for the Braves on short rest after pitching in Game 1 and allowing one runs in 5.1 innings of the 1-0 loss. Lowe pitched very well in that start, striking out six, but he had four walks. He was very good down the stretch as well, but the Giants’ hitters have seen him already this series, just four days ago, so they have an idea on what’s coming.

Sunday’s Game 3 loss was very deflating for the Braves who took a 2-1 lead in the bottom of the eighth inning only to blow it without their closer Billy Wagner in the top of the ninth. Tough for them to come back from that emotional contest, but easy for the Giants to get to the park looking to end this thing tonight.

San Francisco comes in on several positive streaks, including 5-1 as road ‘dogs, 7-3 overall, 5-2 on Mondays and 8-2 on the road against winning teams. Atlanta is on skids of 2-7 against winning teams, 1-4 at home against winning teams and 1-5 against N.L. West teams.

I like the way this Giants’ team just battles every night out there. Grab the plus money and go with San Francisco in this one.

3♦ SAN FRANCISCO

Joel Tyson

San Francisco (+135) at ATLANTA

I am going with the Giants to close out the injury-riddled Braves.

Just when it appeared Atlanta would get some late inning magic once again, the Giants took advantage of the absence of Braves closer Billy Wagner, as they struck for a pair of runs in the top half of the 9th, and then Brian Wilson close the door on a 3-2 dagger of a win for San Francisco.

I know Atlanta has been tough at home this year, and I know Derek Lowe rates the edge right now over Madison Bumgarner, but last night's loss is one that this Atlanta team will NOT rebound from.

The Giants to close it out and join Philadelphia in the NLCS starting this weekend.

4♦ SAN FRANCISCO

Karl Garrett

Minnesota at N.Y. JETS

Taking a look at tonight's total, and the G-Man feels this total is a little low considering the fact that Randy Moss has joined the Vikings, and Santonio Holmes is due back from suspension.

The teams also have top-notch defensive units that have the ability to create some turnovers and some short fields for the offenses to cash in on.

2 of the last 3 Monday night games have been able to clear the posted total, and I think with a total in the 30's, this game will be in the over column midway through the 3rd quarter of play.

Vikings and Jets put of a show as this game heads over the total on a Monday night for the third time in the last four weeks.

2♦ OVER

VEGAS EXPERTS

San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves

Great betting trend to reveal here as the Braves are 0-7 in home playoff games, when facing elimination, since 1997. Errors doomed Atlanta in Game Three, but we feel they will get revenge in Game 4 against a first-time playoff starter in Madison Bumgarner. Another great betting trend has the Braves at 21-5 at home off a loss. They also went 51-22 as a home favorite during the regular season. San Francisco is 19-30 off a one-run win.

Play on: Atlanta

SPORTS WAGERS

San Francisco +1.35 over ATLANTA

Once again, the Braves could do little against a Giants' starter, as Jonathan Sanchez held them down for 7.1 innings in Game 3. The Braves managed only two hits and a walk against Sanchez. The one earned run the Braves scored off him occurred after he was replaced in the 8th inning by Sergio Romo, who gave up a two-run homer to Eric Hinske. The Braves continue to have trouble making contact, with 12 strikeouts in Game 3. The Braves now have 37 strikeouts and only three walks in 29 innings in the series. Only Brian McCann (.872 OPS) has hit consistently in the series, while Brooks Conrad (.200 OPS), Jason Heyward (.000 OPS in 12 PA), and Matt Diaz (.000 OPS in 7 PA) have all struggled. Heyward has looked like a rookie in the series so far, with seven strikeouts in 12 plate appearances. None of the Braves have ever faced Madison Bumgarner and that can’t be good for a squad seeing BB’s. Baumgarner held his own as a rookie and he had stretches in which he was terrific. He was brilliant in is last five starts with an xERA of 3.22 while walking just four batters and striking out 32. And who could forget that masterpiece he threw at Wrigley on Sept 23 when the wind was ripping out to center and all he did was go seven complete and not allow a run while Cubs pitching allowed 19 hits and 13 runs. The Giants, meanwhile, have been facing Derek Lowe forever. They saw him in game one and now Lowe is being asked to pitch on three days rest. He may or may not succeed but in no way would we recommend laying juice with the Braves, especially when their hearts were ripped out yesterday. Thanks for coming out Atlanta. Play: San Francisco +1.35 (Risking 2 units).

Pittsburgh +1.24 over NEW JERSEY

Note the 4:00 PM EST start. Oddly enough, one of these teams is going to be 0-3 and it’s likely not going to be the Penguins. Not that the Devils are a bad team but they started to fade badly at the end of last season, they also made an early exit from the playoffs, they have a lot of aging vets, they’ve allowed 11 goals against in two games and at some point, just like the Red Wings did with Chris Osgood, they’re going to have to make Marty Brodeur a backup. Brodeur has too many miles on his 39-year-old body. He’s slower than he’s ever been and so are his reflexes. It’s not going to get any better either. There is no fountain of youth and until the Devils admit it, they’re going to have problems in net with Brodeur as the #1. Incidentally, he was yanked from the Devils 7-2 loss at Washington on Saturday when he allowed four goals on 20 shots. The Pens have had a couple of tough losses but they’re too good to keep losing. They also have a slew of snipers that should be able to beat Brodeur at least four times. Paul Martin returns to New Jersey in his new digs and he and the whole team will be jacked up to get in the “W” column. So will the Devils but those cheap goals deflate the hell out of teams and you can count on that happening here. Brodeur is finished. Play: Pittsburgh +1.24 (Risking 2 units).

Anaheim +1.45 over ST. LOUIS

Note the 2:00 PM EST start. The Ducks are 0-2 but that’s not really indicative of how they’re playing. They opened the year with a 4-0 loss in Detroit, always a tough place to play and they followed that up with a 4-1 loss in Nashville in a game in which they were not outplayed. The Ducks have not had much luck around the net but they’ve had lots of chances and they have lots of scorers so don’t put too much emphasis on its lack of production just yet. They also possess one of the finest goaltenders in the game in Jonas Hiller. The Ducks will conclude its three-game trip here and you know they’ll be ready to go in an attempt to come home winless. The Blues are coming off a 2-1 OT win over the tough Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday. Its one goal in regulation came with a two-man advantage and overall they went 1-10 on the power-play. Fact is, the Flyers spent more time in the box than on the ice and while the Blue Notes are likely improved from a season ago, they’re definitely overpriced here against this very talented guest. Overlay. Play: Anaheim +1.45 (Risking 2 units).

John Ryan

Pittsburgh Penguins at New Jersey Devils
Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins

Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Pittsburgh Penguins will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 94-84 making 46.3 units since 2005. Play against home favorites against the money line after allowing 2 goals or more in the third period last game and now facing an opponent after scoring 2 goals or less in 2 straight games. Penguins are a solid 28-9 against the money line (+15.8 Units) off a home loss over the last 3 seasons. Penguin head coach Dan Bylsma is a rock solid 19-5 against the money line (+10.4 Units) off a home loss. Take the Penguins.

Jack Jones

Atlanta Braves -145

The Atlanta Braves even this series at 2-2 with a win Monday. Derek Lowe has been pitching as good as anyone in baseball over the last month. Lowe is 5-1 with a 1.25 ERA in his last 6 starts, yielding just 5 earned runs in 36 innings of work. Lowe has 35 strikeouts to just 7 walks over that stretch as well, and the Braves wouldn't want anyone else on the mound for a must-win Game 4.

Lowe was 10-5 with a 3.72 ERA at home this season and has allowed three or fewer earned runs in six of his last eight outings at Turner Field. The Braves are 56-26 at home this season, sporting one of the best home marks in the majors. They are outscoring opponents by 1.2 RPG at home this year. The Braves are 38-14 against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season. Atlanta is 13-2 against the money line in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season, winning by 2.9 RPG in this spot. Bet the Braves Monday.

Sean Higgs

Vikings vs. NY Jets
Play: Under 39

Favre has some serious issues lingering. His head won't be in the game. Do you really think Moss is just going to come in, run out patterns and catch 45 yard passes. Come on. Revis will isolate him. The Jets welcome back their own misfit, Santonio Holmes. Another chucklehead to team with Braylon Edwards. Look for the Jets to revert to their old run, run, pass routine against a tough front 7 from the Vikes. First team to 13 wins.

SPORTS WAGERS

WINNIPEG –3½ over B.C. Lions

The problem with the Bombers is not a lack of talent but a lack of a commitment to win. This is the best 3-10 team in a long time. They could easily be 9-4 had they not beaten themselves on so many occasions. Winnipeg has been in a position to win so many games but a late turnover, a costly penalty, a dropped pass, etc, etc…has done them in time and time again. They lost in B.C. last week 16-14. The week before they lost to the Als, 44-40, three weeks ago they lost to the Argos 17-13. Winnipeg was in a strong position to win all three of those games and they keep coming up short. Laying points with them is risky for sure but man, this team is too good to keep coming up empty against lesser opponents. The Lions have won four of its last five games but they simply cannot continue to win at this pace. Remember, this is a team that opened the year 1-7 and not much has changed except a little momentum and a lot of luck. Against these same Bombers last week in Vancouver, the Lions were out-rushed and out-passed and it says here that their good fortune finally comes to an end. Play: Winnipeg –3½ (No bets).