Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, October 13

DAVE COKIN

OTTAWA SENATORS AT FLORIDA PANTHERS
PLAY: OTTAWA SENATORS -115

What happens in October often times doesn’t have much to do with how teams eventually end up come the end of the season. I think this game is a good example along those lines.

I like the moves Florida made in the off-season and expect this team to be improved as the season progresses. On the flip side, I’m of the belief the Sens could decline some this year. Losing Jason Spezza was a huge blow and Ottawa appears to be a team that is going to have some trouble generating offense.

But for right now, the Senators are in better shape than the Panthers. Ottawa is still fresh enough to be able to force the tempo they want while relying on good defense and what should be solid goaltending.

The Panthers are going to likely need some time to sort things out as there was a load of turnover on this roster. The cohesiveness isn’t there yet. That makes Florida a team that’s probably a decent fade right now. But they’re also a team that bears close watching as once they fit the pieces together, they could be a live entry, especially as a dog.

As for tonight, I’m basically taking Craig Anderson over Roberto Luongo. I’m assuming Anderson starts in goal for Ottawa. He’s healthy, which is something that wasn’t the case for much of last season. Anderson has also owned the Panthers throughout his career, and while that’s not a huge stat for me, it sure doesn’t hurt. Luongo is off to a sluggish start, and while he can definitely get it together and start rolling, Luongo is not a great option right now.

Later in the season, I can at least speculate that getting Florida as a home dog against Ottawa might well be worth a wager. But for the present, I’ve got to side with the Senators and as long as this price doesn’t climb, I believe they’re worth a shot tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

Anaheim Ducks vs. Buffalo Sabres
Play: Money Line: -168 Anaheim Ducks -168

The Ducks travel into Buffalo to take on a Sabres team they beat twice last season scoring 6 goals in both win. Anaheim is 7-1 on the road off a road game and has much more depth. Buffalo is 0-9 off a road game and has lost 16 of 18 if they were a dog in their last game. Look for Anaheim to get the win.

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Jim Feist

Orioles at Royals
Pick: Over

The Orioles are in a must win situation here as they are down 2-0 in their best of seven series to the Royals. The Royals have arguably the best pitching staff in the A.L and even though they have given up more runs in the playoffs then we are used to, their offense has come through big. They trailed against Oakland in the Wild Card and came from behind to win. Then they swept the Angels in three games in the ALDS and now lead 2-0 over the O's. Bruce Chen starts for the O's and has been one of their best, posting a 16-6 record and 3.54 ERA. Chen got hit hard against Detroit in the ALDS, giving up five runs over just 3 2/3 innings. He won't face the same type of hitters in this Royals club so look for a bounce back here. Jeremy Guthrie might be the weakest of the starting staff in KC. Guthrie was just 13-11 this season with a 4.13 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. This will be Guthrie's first start this post season. The O's have the bigger hitters and the Royals the better pitchers. But you can pretty much throw that out in the postseason as both clubs hitting the ball very well.

Jesse Schule

Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals -101

Can anything stop Kansas City? This team seems destined to play in the World Series, and with all the clutch hitting, stellar defensive plays and a solid bullpen, how could you possibly bet against them?

The Royals will turn to veteran Jeremy Guthrie in Game 3, and he was sharp at the end of the regular season. The right-hander was 3-1 with a 2.40 through five starts in the month of September, and he sees his first action of the post-season tonight. He's had success against Oriole hitters in the past, with Adam Jones 1-for-12 lifetime versus Guthrie.

Baltimore will hand the ball to Wei-Yin Chen, who fell apart in his previous post-season appearance versus Detroit. He was chased from Game 2 of the ALDS after surrendering five runs on seven hits, including a pair of home runs all in just 3 2/3 innings. Behind Chen is an Orioles bullpen that has been great all year, but has struggled in this series, with Darren O'Day getting credit for the loss in both the first two games in Baltimore.

Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer have owned Chen, with both hitting better than .400 with a combined four home runs and nine RBIs.

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Steve Rosen

Anaheim Ducks vs. Buffalo Sabres
Play: Anaheim Ducks -175

The Ducks are going to destroy the Sabres today.The Anaheim Ducks had a third period to remember Saturday night in Detroit, while the Buffalo Sabres would much rather forget their performance over the final 20 minutes of their loss in Chicago. Buffalo is off to another dismal start, dropping each of its first two games while being outscored 9-3 in the process. Just about everything that could go wrong has done just that for the Sabres, who have struggled at all facets of the game in their opening 120 minutes of the season. Among the major concerns is a power-play unit that has not only gone scoreless in five opportunities, but allowed a pivotal short-handed goal in the loss to the Blackhawks. Penalty killing has also struggled, allowing a man-advantage goal in both games while yielding eight opportunities through two games. Buffalo finished 29th in power-play success rate (14.1 percent) and 20th in penalty killing (81.4) a season ago. On the other hand Anaheim was one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the league last season, and appears to have bolstered its attack with the addition of Ryan Kesler. The former Vancouver Canucks forward has been one of the team's top players through the first two games, racking up a goal and three assists while proving to be a valuable power-play asset and averaging nearly 20 minutes of ice time per game. Anaheim cruised to victory in both meetings last season, outscoring Buffalo 12-5 in games played less than a week apart. Getzlaf has five goals and six assists in 11 career games versus the Sabres. History repeats itself today as the Ducks win.

Art Aronson

Anaheim Ducks vs. Buffalo Sabres
Play: Buffalo Sabres +1½ -200

The Ducks come to Buffalo to face the winless Sabres and then will have to immediately board a plane and travel to Philadelphia to take on the winless Flyers. Buffalo also hits the road to take on the winless Hurricanes on Tuesday. A tougher spot scheduling wise for Anaheim though which is playing the third game of an opening four game road trip. To say this is a “revenge” spot for the Sabres would be an understatement as the Ducks have won six of the last nine in the series, which included taking both meetings last year. From a situational stand-point, this is a sound play, while I do think Buffalo can score an outright win, because of its thrid period issues already this season, I think the safer play is in laying the price for the extra goals; how about you, do you think the home side can keep this one close?

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Randall the Handle

49ers (3-2) at Rams (1-3)

Yes, the Rams have a history of playing their superior division foes tough. But this has been a bit of a letdown spot in the past for some of the NFC West’s talent. That’s not the case here as there is a sense of urgency with every game for the 49ers as they find themselves in a heated three-way battle within this division. The Niners enjoy the road favourite’s role as they have covered seven of their past eight when spotting visitor’s points, and that includes a 35-11 win on this field a year ago as a 3½-point pick. Rams can’t stop the run and they rank 30th in points allowed. That won’t work here. TAKING: 49ERS –3

EZWINNERS

San Francisco 49ers -$180

I see a lot of support out there for the Rams in this game, but this is not a good match up for St. Louis. San Francisco has issues of their own. They are by no means clicking like a Super Bowl contender, but they are finding ways to win games and I expect them to do just that in this game. Ram's quarterback Austin Davis is improving every game, but Davis is still not a very accurate passer and St. Louis's inability to establish a running game makes it hard for the Rams to move the ball consistently. The big disappointment is the Rams defense that was supposed to be the strength of this team. Instead the defense is the third worst in points allowed and just 30th in the league against the run. That is not a good stat when facing the backfield of Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde. The Rams also blitz more than any defense in the league as they bring extra pressure almost 50% of the time. 49ers quarterback Collin Kapernick has been inconsistent at times, but he has put up spectacular numbers this season when facing a blitz. I expect San Francisco to cover the three points, but just like I did last Thursday with the Colts, I'll pay the extra juice on the moneline. Play on the 49ers.

LT Profits

San Francisco vs St. Louis
Pick: St. Louis

The San Francisco 49ers barely have a winning record at 3-2 and even their wins have not been as impressive as past seasons, and the major reason has been rather disappointing offensive line play. That issue could affect them again Monday vs. the young and talented defensive line of the St. Louis Rams. The Rams are 1-3, but they are probably better than that as three turnovers cost them a win and allowed them to blow a 21-0 lead vs. the surprising Cowboys, and they showed a lot of heart on the road at Philadelphia last week, rallying from down 34-7 to lose just 34-28. The catalyst has been quarterback Austin Davis, who has completed 67.8 percent of his passes while averaging a nice 7.9 yards per pass attempt and has thrown for over 300 yards in back-to-back games. The 49ers are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.

SPORTS WAGERS

Colorado +153 over BOSTON

OT included. The Avs are 0-2 and have yet to score a goal after playing the Wild twice. The result of Colorado’s slow start is an inflated number here that works to our advantage because Colorado is too talented to be taking back a price like this against any East team, including the Bruins. We’re not saying that Colorado is going to repeat last year’s outstanding season. In fact, hockey analytics suggested that Colorado played over its head last year but that doesn’t take away from the fact that this team is loaded with offensive talent. The market overreaction to Colorado’s poor start is right in line with our philosophy of playing value and that’s precisely what we’re going to do. Besides that, Minnesota is a serious threat this season and Colorado lost to them twice. Big deal.

The Bruins have the exact same number of losses as Colorado. Boston lost in Detroit and they lost at home to Washington. In those two games combined, the B’s scored one goal. Boston has one victory and that occurred at home in its season opener against the Flyers by a score of 2-1. So, while the Devils and Canadiens were scoring 10 goals on Philly in two games combined, Boston scored twice. Overall, the Bruins have now scored just three times in three games. Where the hell is Johnny Boychuk when you need him? Boston has not looked sharp and they’re coming off three goals in three games against three teams not known for defense. The Avalanche will bring it here and we have to trust that their chances of winning are just as good as the Bruins' chances. Overlay.

FLORIDA +101 over Ottawa

OT included. We’re not convinced that the Senators should be road chalk here. In fact, if this was the first game of the year and not the third, they wouldn’t be. Ottawa is 1-1 after two games but they have been outshot by a combined 77-54 in those two games. They will now play their third consecutive road game to start the season before returning home to play the Avs on Thursday. Jason Spezza and Ales Hemsky are long gone. With those two departed, the Senators lost a lot of their scoring from last season and replaced them with Kyle Turris and Bobby Ryan. The Sens defense was among the worst in the league last season and not much was done to improve upon that. Additionally, Coach Paul MacLean is in love with goaltender Craig Anderson when he has a better goaltender on the bench in Robin Lehner. Anderson is a 13-year vet that had ONE great season back in 2012-13 for MacLean while his other 11 years were nothing but average. The Sens may offer up some value as a dog in certain spots, but as a favorite on the road, they offer up none.

The Panthers are 0-2 but five of the eight goals that they have allowed have come on the opposition’s power-play. We can assure you that’s an area they’ve been working on over the past 24 hours. After a very disappointing season and 29th place finish, the Panthers used to the offseason to regroup and acquire some veteran free agents in Dave Bolland, Willie Mitchell, Jussi Jokinen, and Derek Mackenzie. Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov are two core players that are expected to help the Panthers make an improvement this season. The beat writers are also saying that Tomas Fleischmann has a real jump in his step again. The Panthers defense looks in very good shape with the aforementioned Mitchell along with Brian Campbell, Erik Gudbranson, Dylan Olsen and Dmitry Kulikov. The addition of Aaron Ekblad is one to keep an eye on. Ekblad was drafted first overall by the Panthers and is coming off of a dominating season with the Barrie Colts of the OHL. Ekblad can play big minutes and he’s a versatile defenseman. The Panthers will suffer growing pains and they’ll take their fair share of losses this season but they are on the right track and can certainly play with the Senators. The betting market has put a little too much emphasis on the first two games of the year and if we’re playing value only, the Panthers have to be included on today’s card.

TAMPA BAY -½ +135 over Montreal

Regulation only. Montreal will play its fourth straight on the road here after opening the season with three straight wins. Of those three wins, none were of the impressive variety, as the Habs were badly outplayed in Washington and were getting destroyed in Philadelphia for the first two periods before Philly figured a 3-0 lead was safe and sat back in the third. The Canadiens other victory occurred on opening night in Toronto. They were outplayed in the first period and needed a goal in the final minute to break a 3-3 tie. Playing their fourth road game since Wednesday, and with their home opener on deck Thursday against their most hated rival, the Boston Bruins, Montreal’s luck figures to run out here.

Man, do the Lightning ever want this one. Tampa was ousted by the Canadiens in last year’s first round of the playoffs. Not only were the Lightning forced into using one of the worst goaltenders in the league in Anders Lindback (Ben Bishop was injured), but they also feel they got the short end of the stick in a lot of controversial calls. We all saw what San Jose did to the Kings in their opener after the Sharks blew a 3-0 series lead in last year’s playoffs. Well, the Bolts have that same mindset. After San Jose defeated Los Angeles, the players all said they had that game circled on their calendar as soon as the schedule came out. We’re suggesting something similar here for the Bolts. Despite being 1-1 with two OT games already, the Bolts look very good. They have sustained immense pressure in the offensive zone and they also have a huge size advantage over the Canadiens. Situational betting is a key criteria for any serious bettor and in terms of that, this one couldn’t have set up better for the Bolts. Aside from that, they are the superior team anyway. Invest.

SPORTS WAGERS

MONTREAL -3½ over Saskatchewan

Montreal’s 15-7 victory over Ottawa in its last game looks rather weak right now when you consider that the Redblacks were pasted in B.C. on Saturday by 38 points. However, Montreal was in a letdown spot after they whacked the Stampeders the previous week by 16. That game, like this one, was played in Montreal, where the Als have won two straight against Calgary and Hamilton and outscored that pair, 69-46. The Alouettes got off to a rocky start this year and they still have some issues but they are once again becoming very difficult to beat at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium. Montreal has had two weeks to prepare for this one and this is as healthy as they’ve been all year. It’s down the stretch time in the CFL and this is the time of year that teams look to play their absolute best in order to peak heading into the playoffs. Montreal is primed to perform outstandingly and they have the talent to do exactly that.

The Roughriders are in a very difficult spot here. They’re coming off a 31-24 loss to Calgary in a game they looked dead in. Saskatchewan rallied from 24 down in the fourth to tie before a late TD by Calgary sealed their fate. After this one, the Roughies final three games are much more important, as they are all against West opponents and will ultimately decide home-field in the playoffs. More than that, however, is that Saskatchewan has been torched in every statistical category since Darian Durant was lost for the season. In their last two road games, the Roughriders have been outgained by a ridiculous and eye-opening 454 yards. Management has no faith in either QB replacement so this past week they contacted retired QB Kerry Joseph and lured him of retirement to help. Joseph won’t play today but he’s on a bus (ok, maybe not a bus) as we write this and he’s joining the team sometime this week. We have to wonder what that does to the confidence of their current QB’s. It’s not exactly a ringing endorsement that basically says, “You two are so bad that we have to bring in a broken down, 41-year-old, ex-CFLer to give us any chance in the playoffs. It doesn’t say that to just the QB’s either. Every player in that Saskatchewan locker room has to be shaking their head and It sure doesn’t bode well for this game. Because the West is falsely considered to be the much stronger division, the Als are underpriced here and we’re on it.

Jimmy Boyd

Baltimore Orioles -107

The Orioles could just as easily be leading this series 2-0 instead of trailing 0-2. While the Royals still need to more wins, Baltimore is going to treat this like an elimination game. They simply can't afford to fall behind 0-3 in the series. I like Buck Showalter's teams to come away with a big win in KC tonight.

The Royals will be starting Jeremy Guthrie, who hasn't pitched since Sept. 26. While he finished the regular season strong, I look for him to be a bit rusty early and for Baltimore to capitalize. Not having pitched in the postseason and all the sudden getting thrown under the fire in the ALCS will have the nerves rocking for Guthrie. Keep in mind Guthrie had just a 4.09 ERA and 1.298 WHIP over 32 starts.

Baltimore is going to counter with Wie-Yin Chen. There could be some concern here with Chen after he allowed 5 runs on 7 hits in just 3 2/3 innings at home against the Tigers at home in the ALDS. The key thing to note is that Chen has pitched better on the road than at home. Chen had a 3.76 ERA at home and a 3.33 ERA on the road. In his lone start at KC during the regular season, Chen held the Royals to just 1 run on 7 hits over 5 1/3 innings of work.

Orioles are 18-8 in Chen's last 26 starts against a team with a winning record, 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite and 4-1 in his last 5 against the AL Central. KC is just 1-5 in Guthrie's last 6 starts against the AL East and 1-4 in his last 5 home starts when listed as an underdog.

Steve Janus

Kansas City Royals +104

The fact that this is a must-win game for the Orioles has created some great value on the Royals at home. Kansas City has something special going right now and I just don't see them relaxing because they have a 2-0 lead in the series. Baltimore is a team that relies heavily on the home run, which plays into the Royals favor. Kauffman Stadium is not a hitter-friendly park, which I believe gives the Royals a big advantage.

KC's Jeremy Guthrie will be making his first start of the postseason and he's going to be coming out with a lot of confidence after he finished the regular season with a 0.44 ERA and .787 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Not to mention Guthrie has a 2.67 career ERA against the Orioles. Baltimore's Wei-Yin Chen was tagged for 5 runs against the Tigers at home and I look for the Royals to score just enough to get the win.

System - Home underdogs with a good bullpen that converts 75% or more of their save opportunities with a strong defensive catcher that allows 0.5 or less steals/game are 96-72 over the last 5 seasons.

Will Rogers

Iceland vs. Holland
Play: Holland -192

Iceland is sitting top of Group A as they will host the Netherlands in the Euro Qualifier Monday. This is the first time the Icelandic national team has won two consecutive games in any qualifier for a major tournament though, and I think they'll get back down to earth against the Oranje today.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. The Dutch strike force - Robin Van Persie has not impressed in the Manchester United shirt this season, but he rarely puts in a poor display for his national team. He has support from Jeremain Lens and Arjen Robben on the flanks, with Wesley Sneijder and Ibrahim Affelay coming deeper from midfield. In contrast, most of the Icelandic players plays in their national league or in one of the not very prestigious Scandinavian ones.

2. A wake up call - The Netherlands suffered a 2-1 loss to Czech Republic their first game of the Euro Qualification. I think that will effect them positively in the long run though, now they know not to take any opponent lightly and sure enough they punished Kazakhstan 3-1 their second game.

3. X-factor - The Dutch winger Ibrahim Affelay had one goal and one assist against Kazakhstan three days ago. None of the Icelandic defenders can match his speed, and his movement off the ball will open up space for his team-mates.

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