DUNKEL INDEX
NFL
Indianapolis at San Diego
The Colts look to take advantage of a San Diego team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record. Indianapolis is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Colts favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-1)
Game 229-230: Indianapolis at San Diego (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 139.088; San Diego 131.781
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 1; 50
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-1); Over
CFL
Toronto at Hamilton
The Alouettes look to build on their 13-3 ATS record in their last 16 road games. Toronto is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+1 1/2)
Game 295-296: Winnipeg at Montreal (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 98.064; Montreal 119.148
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 21; 48
Vegas Line: Montreal by 10 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-10 1/2); Under
Game 297-298: Toronto at Hamilton (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 118.728; Hamilton 113.543
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 5; 58
Vegas Line: Hamilton by 1 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+1 1/2); Over
MLB
St. Louis at LA Dodgers
The Cardinals look to build on their 13-3 record in Adam Wainwright's last 6 starts as a road favorite. St. Louis is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-125)
Game 909-910: St. Louis at LA Dodgers (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.972; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 15.600
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-125); Under
NHL
Minnesota at Buffalo
The Wild look to follow up on their 5-1 win over Dallas on Saturday and build on their 6-1 record in their last 7 games after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game. Minnesota is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Wild favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-130)
Game 51-52: Detroit at Boston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.106; Boston 10.646
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+130); Over
Game 53-54: Edmonton at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 10.412; Washington 11.838
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-160); Under
Game 55-56: Minnesota at Buffalo (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 12.307; Buffalo 10.646
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-130); Under
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Colts (4-1) at Chargers (2-3)FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We’re not going to take anything away from Indianapolis. They have done an outstanding job transitioning from the Peyton Manning era to the continually ascending Andrew Luck age. By year’s end, we fully expect the Colts to be further along than these Chargers, but on this day, we find the visitor in a tough spot. Indy will play this one fresh off of a huge comeback win over the previously undefeated Seahawks. Now they’ll travel to the southwest to face this non-descript foe, a game they may not be quite focused upon. After this matchup, they will fly home on a short week to host none other than Indianapolis icon Peyton Manning and his high-flying Broncos. A more mature team could likely concentrate on this one, but it will be tough for this young group. San Diego has had its ups and downs this season, with new coaching, players and management. But they’ve split two home games, competing in both off of the productive arm of QB Philip Rivers. In a slight upset, we’ll call the Bolts to zap the Colts. TAKING: CHARGERS +1½
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SAN DIEGO (+1.5) 30 Indianapolis 23FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Colts come off of a big 34-28 home win against previously undefeated Seattle in a game where they blocked a field goal and returned it for a touchdown and made some big plays including 73 and 29 yard TD passes from Andrew Luck. However, they did lose the overall stat battle with 319 yards at 5.5 YPPL to 423 yards and 6.3 YPPL for the Seahawks. Seattle was in a tough spot, playing in their 2nd consecutive 10AM start time game and with a really banged up offensive line missing multiple starters. Overall on the season the Colts have been good on offense with a balanced attack and below average defensively. The Chargers come into this game off of a late Sunday night 17-27 loss against division rival Oakland where they were -5 in turnover differential. Season numbers show the Chargers with an above average offense driven by the play of Philip Rivers and a poor defense, especially versus the pass. I have situations going both ways here with the stronger situations favoring the Chargers. My model likes San Diego here by 5.1 points not accounting for situations and the Colts might be in a let down spot off the big home win and with a Sunday night home contest against the Broncos on deck. I like the Chargers.
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Edmonton Oilers vs. Washington CapitalsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play:Washington Capitals -152FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Caps are still a solid 13-4 at home in October games even with the 2 straight losses here. They are 5-2 off 3+ losses and have won 7 of 8 here vs Edmonton. Washington is 4th in the league in home scoring while the Oilers are ranked 30th in road defense. Both teams have started slow but the Oilers are just 3-16 in their last 19 October road games. Edmonton is 4-13 after scoring 4 or more goals and 5-15 vs teams under .500 in the firs half of the season. Look for Washington to win this one.
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St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles DodgersSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Los Angeles DodgersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Game 3 of the NLCS moves to LA and the Dodgers have to be kicking themselves at this point. Instead of being down 0-2 in this series, the Dodgers should be at least 1-1 if not 2-0 themselves. In game one the Dodgers win if Greinke gets the pitcher out in the third inning. Plus HC Don Mattingly taking Adrian Gonzalez out for a pinch runner in the 8th and having his best RBI man on the bench as the game went 13 innings. Game two the Cardinals win 1-0 on an unearned run and LA can't score with second and third and no one out. Both sides have exhibited great pitching in this series. Now the Dodgers are in a must win situation. They can't go down 0-3 and expect to win so it's up to Hyun-Jin Ryu to get LA back in the series. Ryu had a very good year, going 14-8 with a 3.14 ERA. However, in the Atlanta series Ryu was roughed-up in his one start, allowing six hits and four earned runs in just three innings. Adam Wainwright will start for St Louis. Wainwright has won his last five starts and was 19-9 on the season with a 2.94 ERA. Dodgers are a dog here on Monday and while St Louis has the momentum and the pitching edge here, I am taking the Dodgers in what looks to be their last shot and a must win.
Brass Balls Picks
FREE PICK RECORD BEGINNING AND ENDING:
9/1/13 to 10/11/13 29 wins - 13 losses
MONDAY: COLTS/CHARGERS OVER 50 points
😎
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NFLBettingPicks - Kevin
2 UNIT = Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers - OVER 50 POINTS (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
=)
LT ProfitsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis vs L.A. DodgersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick : Over 6.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The St. Louis Cardinals lead the Los Angeles Dodgers 2-0 in this NLCS with a couple of low-scoring wins by scores of 3-2 and 1-0, but we are looking for a different type of games with the scenery shifting to Los Angeles. Dodger starter Hyun-Jin Ryu struggled toward the end of the season while dealing with back problems after a heavy workload, and he was hit hard for four earned runs on six hits in only three innings in Game 3 of the NLDS by the Braves. Granted, the Cardinals are sending out their ace Adam Wainwright but if St. Louis gets to Ryu like we expect, Wainwright may not even need to give up much to push this game ‘over’ this low total and the Dodgers are averaging 4.61 runs vs. right-handers the last 10 games. The ‘over’ is 15-7 in the Cardinals’ last 22 playoff games.
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SAN DIEGO +115 over IndianapolisFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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You cannot take the human element out of anything. One could break down this game with X’s and O’s until they are blue in the face and it will not aid you in the least when emotions come into play and have a much bigger impact on the outcome than the talent on the field. We mention this because in terms of situational betting, the Colts might be in the worst spot of the year so far.
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Indianapolis is coming off a huge, emotionally charged win over Seattle last week. That was one of those games that was hard fought to the end and took everything the Colts had to seal the victory. Traveling to the West Coast the week after a win like that is tough enough but the real kicker here is that Indy will host Denver next week back at the Dome on Sunday night in another prime time affair. Yes, that’s right, Denver and you know who. It’s not just another game. It’s Andrew Luck against Peyton Manning. It’s the future against the past. It’s the NFL’s best team and the greatest QB ever returning home to the city he has a key to. Again, it’s not just another game and we can guarantee you that these young Colts have that game on their minds. How can they not? The media is already overplaying it, it’s going to be a media frenzy as soon as they land back in Indianapolis and the anticipation of that contest absolutely has to have their focus off of this game. For the Colts, this game in San Diego tonight is almost like playing a pre-season game before playing in the Super Bowl. The Chargers capitalize and there’s nothing more that needs to be said about this game.
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BOSTON -½ +113 over DetroitFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. Coming off back-to-back losses in which Mike Babcock was not at all pleased with their efforts, the Red Wings had the reeling Philadelphia Flyers in on Saturday night in Detroit. The Wings won that game 5-2 but that is one of this year’s most misleading scores. The Flyers outplayed the Red Wings by a wide margin. They outhit them, they outhustled them and they were the better club for not one or two periods but all three. Under normal circumstances, an effort like that could be written off as just a bad game but in Detroit’s case, it’s more than that. For the first time in a long time, the Wings look soft. After two lackluster efforts the Wings were supposed to take it to Philadelphia from the opening faceoff but the opposite occurred. Chance after chance, giveaway after giveaway, it was Philadelphia that kept coming the entire night. Had it not been for the goaltending, Philadelphia would have easily won that game and they deserved to win it. Now Detroit, looking out of sync and being knocked around physically, will go into Boston on a Monday afternoon and play one of the most physical and talented teams in the NHL that has perhaps the best goaltender in the NHL.
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The Bruins have allowed two goals or less in all four of their games so far. Against Tampa Bay, Detroit and Columbus, Boston allowed just one goal against in each contest and against Colorado it surrendered two. The Bruins defeated the Red Wings 4-1 nine days ago and they’ll very likely defeat them again here. All the guys that make the Bruins the Bruins like Milan Lucic, David Krejci, Shawn Thornton and Zdeno Chara are still there. Down the middle, the B’s are amazing with Loui Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, Krejci and Chris Kelly. They have youth, experience, goaltending, grit, talent and most of all, a burning desire to win. We are going to go into much more detail regarding the Red Wings later on but for now and after watching its last three games, Detroit is high on our fade list and that fade starts here.
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Edmonton +140 over WASHINGTONFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. We’ve been fading the Capitals for a couple of games now and surely aren’t about to back off now. Washington is coming off three losses in a row in which they’ve been outscored 10-4. The Capitals defense and goaltending continues to be huge problem and it’s not that Braden Holtby or Michael Neuvirth are not capable. Washington’s makeshift defense, that consists of a bunch of nobodies, keep hanging their goalies out to dry and as those goals continue to go in, their confidence, or lack thereof suffers more. The Caps are a fragile bunch right now that has one OT win this season in five tries and that lone victory occurred in OT against the Flames in a game they rallied from 4-1 down.
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Edmonton’s defense is also weak but the difference is that the Oilers are not the club laying 7½-5 here. Edmonton has allowed 28 shots or fewer in three straight games and picked up points in two of those. The Oilers potent offense has been on full display over that stretch, scoring 10 times combined against New Jersey and Toronto and they figure to score a few more here on the NHL’s least talented group of defensemen. With a take-back of +140 and with the Capitals spinning downward, all the value here is on the young, talented and enthusiastic Oilers.
Ben Burns
Minnesota Wild vs. Buffalo Sabres
Play: Buffalo Sabres +119
I backed the Wild in their last game and they rewarded me with a wire-to-wire win over Dallas. Great effort on their part in that game. They're on the road now though and I expect them to encounter a desperate opponent.
With an 0-6 (0-5-1) record, its safe to say that the season hasn't started the way that the Sabres had hoped. Stepping outside their conference figures to help.
The Sabres are a modest 10-8 (+2.8) against Western Conference clubs the past couple of seasons. That's a much better record than they have vs. the East. Meanwhile, during the same period, the Wild are only 5-13 (-7.8) when facing Eastern Conference foes.
Not surprisingly, given those numbers, the Sabres are 2-0 the last two meetings, winning 3-1 here last season and 3-2 (at Minnesota) in 2011.
While he doesn't have any "W's" to show for it yet, Buffalo goalie Ryan Miller has played fairly well. Note that he's 3-1 with a 2.10 goals-against-average against Minnesota.
The Wild have played only one road game - they lost. They're 12-24 (-8.4) the past couple of seasons, when playing a road game with an O/U line of five or less. With a game on deck at Toronto (the top team in the East right now) tomorrow night, it may be easy to look past the lowly Sabres.
I expect the Sabres, who have tomorrow off before traveling to Long Island for a game Wednesday, to bring their "A" game and feel that they have a solid shot at earning their first win. If looking for an underdog with a reasonable shot at scoring the upset, consider Buffalo.
Sean Higgs
Indianapolis Colts -1
Let’s just jump right into this Monday night game everyone.
Here we go with the final game on the board for Week 6 of NFL action. Now, I don’t claim to know everything about anything. But I do know this. I was wrong. For the last year and counting, I was wrong about these Colts. I thought they would struggle last year. And I thought they would hit the proverbial sophomore slump this season. But this team does one thing well. Win. They win at any field they head to. This team traveled to San Fran and beat a pretty good 49ers squad. They could have had a flat spot, look ahead or whatever you want to call it against Jacksonville. They didn’t. They just won 37-3. And then took care of business against another decent NFC West team in the Seattle Seahawks.
Andrew Luck should have been the Rookie of the Year last year. He will win an MVP in his career no doubt about. He has a stud work-horse RB behind him now. Trent Richardson will elevate the play of the offense around him by making defenses respect the run game, thus opening up more passing lanes for WRs Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton and Raider cast-off, the speedy Darius Bay. Let’s not forget about TE Toby Fleener. This offense will be able to move the ball tonight vs San Diego.
Ah, the Phillip Rivers led Chargers. This guy is putting up some very good numbers. I can’t knock him. But I have to say. I did not think SD would be very good this year. These guys should have won the game vs the Texans. Now that would look good on the resume except the Texans have looked terrible vs everyone they have played. They then went on the road, (I had Philly) and rolled it up on the east coast and beat the Eagles. They lost to the Titans, beat Dallas, and just lost to the Raiders. Talk about an up and down team. I think they are going down again here. Too many question marks for me here on the OL and the defense is very leaky to say the least.
My Final Thoughts
I think the Colts are the real deal here. I think they will win the AFC South. They have a very good offense. The entire team buys into their coach. The defense bends, but doesn’t break. Maybe it is smoke and mirrors. Whatever it is, it is translating into wins. Heading out west is never easy. But these guys took care of business once and will do it again here. We will back the road team with the better defense and offensive units here.
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San Diego Chargers +1.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I don't have a long write up for this game, its pretty much a gut feel to take San Diego. If you look at the numbers everything seems to point to an easy Colts win, but the line is begging me to take the Chargers. San Diego is capable of scoring points as quarterback Phillip Rivers is playing well again even without multiple skill players who are missing due to injury. The San Diego defense is the concern and they will have to step up and make some plays to beat Indianapolis. This is a tough scheduling spot for Indy as the Colts are coming off of a huge come from behind home win against the Seaheaks and have a big home game up next week against Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Take the points.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St Louis CardinalsFERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: St Louis Cardinals -121FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The NLCS moves to Los Angeles as the Dodgers try to get back into the series at home. St. Louis however is throwing their ace tonight Adam Wainwright. It doesn't bode well for the Dodgers that they threw their top two pitchers and now have to face the St. Louis ace already being down two games. Look for the Cardinals to win this one as well and take a 3-0 advantage into Tuesday.
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Minnesota Wild at Buffalo SabresFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Minnesota WildFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The general consensus prior to the start of the NHL season was that the Buffalo Sabres would not be very good. It’s turning out that those depressing views might have actually been too optimistic.
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The Sabres have been the worst team in the league in the early going, and by a pretty good margin. They apparently didn’t get the league memo about increasing offense, as they’ve put a paltry six pucks past the goalies in six games, and Buffalo has yet to win.
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Eventually the Sabres are going to win, but I’ll repeat what I wrote about them on a couple of occasions last week. This is a go against team at almost any reasonable price, barring any mitigating circumstances that might make that unwise.
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Tonight the Wild come to town, fresh off their best outing of the young season. Minnesota caught the Stars on the back end of a two games in two nights set on Saturday, and they rolled to an easy 5-1 win. The Wild also won their previous game, so they have some positive momentum as they take the ice tonight in Buffalo.
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There is zero doubt that I’m going to eventually take a loss trying to beat the Sabres. No one loses them all. But against the style Minnesota plays, it might be even tougher than usual for the Sabres to mount any offense tonight, and it’s not like goals are ever going to come easily for this outfit. I’ll go ahead and spot the price on the road with the Wild to keep the Sabres winless.
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Colts at ChargersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ChargersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego came out flat in that odd late night game at Oakland Sunday night although they did rally in the second half. The Colts are one of the major surprise teams thus far with wins over NFL powers Seattle and San Francisco. But this is a poor spot for them after last week’s upset win over Seattle. Next week they are back home to host Denver and former QB Manning. San Diego QB Rivers is having a solid season that has gone largely unnoticed with the exploits of more high profile signal callers receiving most of the attention. Considering the disparity in the stats both teams have posted to date it is surprising the Colts are such short favorites, perhaps reflecting that less than a peak performance can be expected. Indy’s defense is vulnerable to the pass which is the Chargers’ strength.