Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday October, 15

Jim Feist

Cardinals at Giants
Pick: Under

The last two world series winners continue their series in game two tonight. As improbable as the Cardinals come from behind win in game five against the Nationals was, the Giants were just the eighth team in MLB history to come back from a 2-0 deficit in a five-game series. The Giants were happy to see the Cardinals come back and beat Washington, as San Francisco now gets home field advantage and returned home to open the seven-game set. I'll be looking at the UNDER here in game two. 37-year old Chris Carpenter makes his second start of this post season. He went 5 2/3 innings against the Nationals, allowing seven hits but no earned runs in his win. Ryan Vogelsong will start for the Giants. Vogelsong was 14-9 this season with a 3.37 ERA. Vogelsong also won his only start in the NLDS with a 2-1 win over the Reds. Vogelsong pitched five innings, allowing just three hits and no runs. San Francisco is a great pitcher's park and with two strong pitchers on the mound I look for this game to go UNDER.

Dave Cokin

St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are rolling and Chris Carpenter is looking better with each start. The road team is 6-0 in all Giants playoff games so far. I won't try to buck that trend here and will back the Cardinals.

Scott Spreitzer

Cardinals / Giants Under 6.5

The Redbirds finally got their bats going against a southpaw when they lit-up Madison Bumgarner, chasing the lefty from the game after just 3 2/3 innings on Sunday. STL, who crushed lefthanded starters during the regular season, did not fare well against a pair of lefties the last two times they faced them, but came through with a big night to win game-1. I expect the Cardinals to struggle a bit in this one, facing righthander Ryan Vogelsong. At the same time, Chris Carpenter has pitched well in four starts since his return from injury, including 5 2/3 shutout innings in their NLDS series against Washington. Carpenter owns decent numbers in eight starts against SFO, while his counterpart has allowed just 2 earned runs and 21 base runners in his last four starts, (22 IP), including a strong start in Cincinnati on October 9. The righty has allowed just 1 earned run in 12 innings in two starts against STL since the beginning of the 2011 season (his comeback year). I'm recommending a play on the Under in Monday's NLCS game-2.

Jimmy Boyd

Broncos/Chargers Under 48

Odds makers are looking to take advantage of the public's tendency toward the over by setting the bar a little too high for these two teams tonight.

Both teams finished over this number last week as the defenses struggled. Those poor efforts will cause the defenses to be very focused tonight in what is a key divisional contest. Consider that plays on the under on home teams when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, provided it is a divisional game and it follows a game in which both it (Chargers) and its opponent (Saints) scored 24 points or more, are 38-15 the last 10 seasons. We have seen an average of just 41.0 total points scored in this situation.

In addition, plays under on road teams, when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, that allowed 30 points or more last game and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off consecutive games in which 50 total points or more were scored are 48-20 since 1983. We have only seen average of 40.8 total points scored in this situation.

The under is 11-3 in San Diego's last 14 home games and 4-1 in its last 5 Monday Night Football games. The under is also 4-0 in Denver's last 4 games against AFC West foes. Take the Under.

Joe Gavazzi

Denver at San Diego
Play: Denver +1

I'm still not buying the Chargers act. Wins have come against Oakland (1-4), Tennessee (2-4), KC (1-5). Last week's loss on SNF to formerly winless New Orleans was hardly impressive. Far more impressed with the weekly improvement of QB Manning and the Denver offense. Their losses against Atlanta, Houston and New England are forgivable. Real key to the Bronco resurgence is a vastly improved defense under DC Del Rio who has returned to his Peter Principle after his failure as head man in Jacksonville. Key figure is a 5.1 defensive yards per play. A figure bettered by only 5 other teams entering this week's play. Trailing in the divisional race by a game is an additional motivator.

St. Louis at San Francisco

Opinion only St. Louis I would normally play the Giants to even the series after they failed to come all the way back from a 6-0 early inning deficit in an eventual 6-4 loss. The Giants have been struggling on this field in the playoffs going 0-3 and being outscored 20-6 with a .165 BA in this park. The St. Louis late season resurgence has now extended to 17-6 including 5-2 in the playoffs. They are 8-3 on the playoff road L2Y including 4-1 this season. Vogelsong pitched far better from this mound this season than on the road. In this park he had a 2.86 ERA. In his lone playoff outing this year, Vogelsong allowed 1 run in 5 IP vs. Washington. Carpenter is a proven playoff performer. He is 10-2 in the playoffs including 5-0 L2Y. In 16 playoff starts, Carpenter has a 2.88 ERA in 8 recent appearances against the Giants have seen Carpenter record a mark of 4-1 with a 3.57 ERA.

Rob Vinciletti

Cardinals at Giants
Pick: Giants

The St. Louis Cardinals visited and Beat the San Francisco Giants 6-4 to take a 1-game-lead in the N.L.C.S. When leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 1-0, the St. Louis Cardinals have an overall series record of 7-3, an overall Game 2 record of 2-8 with an active three-Game 2 losing streak, a Semifinals series record of 2-1, and a Semifinals Game 2 record of 1-2. The Cards have Carpenter going and he has been god in his limited starts this season coming off the injury. However he has not pitched here in awhile and will be taking on an underrated R. Vogelsong who has been solid in his last 2 vs the Cardinals allowing just 1 run 12 innings. Vogelsong has won 10 of 15 at home this season with a 2.86 era and has been solid of late posing a 0.56 era over his last 3 starts. The Giants home bullpen era is a over a full run lower than the Cardinals road bullpen era. The Giants are also a solid 10-3 at home in game 2 of a home series off a game one loss. The Cardinals are 6-10 in game 2 of a road series off a win. With game 2 road teams off a win only winning around 41% historically in this round we will recommenced the Giants to rebound and take game two.

MLB Predictions

Cardinals / Giants Under 6.5

Last night we had the Cardinals win 6-4, but 8 of those 10 runs scored were done in a single inning (the 4th). Tonight we have two starting pitchers who are usually good at avoiding the big innings, and I don't expect either team to be able to string together a couple of hits in an inning. Chris Carpenter went 5.2 innings in his postseason start allowing 7 hits but 0 runs against. He has gotten increasingly better in every start he's made since returning from injury. Last year in the playoffs Carpenter was stellar going 4-0 over 6 starts with a 3.25 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 2.38 opponents batting average, and he has a career postseason 2.88 ERA over 16 starts. Giants starter Ryan Vogelsong went 5 innings allowing just 3 hits and 1 earned run in his divisional series start. Over his last 4 starts he has allowed just 2 earned runs combined, and has struck out 20 batters over that span. In the regular season he was 7-4 with a low 2.86 ERA at home. For what it's worth, three of their six regular season meetings had 6 or fewer runs scored. The UNDER is 4-1 in Carpenter's last 5 road starts and 6-2-1 in his last 9 starts overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Vogelsong's last 4 starts overall, and 23-7-1 in his last 31 home starts. As we've seen this post season, solid pitching triumphs hitting and I think we will see that tonight with two very good pitchers on the mound in a pitchers friendly park. Take the UNDER.

Scott Delaney

My free winner for Monday night is going to be the Over in tonight's AFC West clash between the Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers, as I see a high-scoring shootout between quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers taking place. Both teams have gone over in three of their five games this season, and with plenty at stake in this one, I think we're going to see quite a game.

Five of the last eight meetings have gone over, and now that Manning us under center for the Broncos, I think we could be back to the days of when these two shared some exciting football.

The Chargers lead the Broncos by one game in the AFC West, so this game could weigh heavy in the final standings at the end of the year. In these new Associated Press PRO32 rankings, the Broncos are 15th, while the Bolts are 13th. And with both teams coming off losses - games that landed in the 50s - they'll both be hungry for monumental wins tonight.

The Broncos lost to the Patriots, 31-21 last Sunday while the Chargers lost to the Saints, 31-24.

I don't want to put any money on who will win this game, cause it could come down to the end. But I do think we're looking at a back-and-forth affair that should land near the 48, and I'll look for it to teeter Over.

3♦ OVER Broncos/Chargers

Chuck O'Brien

My free play for Monday night takes us to San Francisco for Game 2 of the National League Championship Series, between the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants, as I like the Under. Yes, I'm playing the value dollar and looking for the plus price to stay beneath 6-1/2 runs.

This showdown between Chris Carpenter and Ryan Vogelsong should be a dandy, as I suspect both know how important this game is to this series. With the series shifting to St. Louis for the middle games of the seven-game set, Vogelsong has to be on top of his game, while Carpenter knows he must be at his best with the Giants hitting in their own ballpark.

Making just his fourth start of the year, Carpenter looked like his old self, pitching 5-2/3 shutout innings in the Cardinals' Game 3 win in the National League Divisional Series against the Washington Nationals. Carpenter's command and arm strength have improved each time out, which tell me durability is no longer a concern. In 16 career postseason starts Carpenter is 10-2 with a respectable 2.88 ERA.

On the other hand, we have Vogelsong, who no-hit the Cincinnati Reds in the final four innings of his NLDS Game 3 start, which happened to be his first postseason appearance. Though opponents hit .426 off him with runners in scoring position in his last nine regular-season outings, but he didn't seem fazed in the postseason. His ERA was more than a full run better at home (2.86) than on the road (3.87) this season.

Play this one low.

2♦ UNDER Cardinals/Giants

Craig Davis

Another free play winner on Sunday as the New York Giants won outright over San Francisco.

Today's free play is on the bases with the Cardinals and Giants to go under the posted total after last night's 10 combined runs.

In each of their first series, both the Cardinals and Giants got mostly horrendous starting pitching and spotless relief work from the pen.

Shoot, even last night was a small indication that this series might be higher scoring than we first thought. But tonight when Chris Carpenter and Ryan Vogelsong go head to head, I believe we're going to see a much lower scoring game... like it should be.

In Game 1, a 6-4 St. Louis win, Cards starter, Lance Lynn, and San Francisco starter, Madison Bumgarner, each lasted only 3 2/3 innings, Lynn allowing four earned runs while Bumgarner gave up all six of St. Louis's runs. After that it was smooth sailing for both bullpens as there was no more scoring. Sorry, but I don't see that happening tonight.

Carpenter brings a 10-2 career postseason record into this game as the Cards try to somehow take an unimaginable 2-0 series lead over the Giants as they head back to St. Louis.

Carpenter is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA so far this post-season, pitching 5 2/3 innings Wednesday in a 8-0 shutout win over Washington. That lowered his ERA to 2.88 in 16 career postseason outings. Needless to say... I think he'll be fine tonight.

He's also 4-1 with a 3.57 ERA in eight career starts against the Giants, winning both previous outings at AT&T Park.

Ryan Vogelsong (0-0, 1.80) needs to, and probably will keep pace as he's well aware what he's up against. He made his postseason debut last Tuesday at Cincinnati in Game 3, allowing one run over five innings in a 2-1, 10-inning win. And he's definitely looking forward to pitching at home... where he posted a 2.86 ERA compared to his 3.87 road mark in the regular season.

I see a 3-2 final tonight, which definitely keeps us under the posted total.

1♦ ST. LOUIS-SAN FRANCISCO UNDER

Jeff Benton

16-9 freebie run.

Your Monday night freebie is the Over in the Cardinals-Giants NLCS game.

It looks as if the leagues are reversed right now, as they can't score runs in the American League, while they are scoring runs in droves in the National League of late.

The Cardinals played a high-scoring series against the Nationals, going Over the total in three of the five meetings, including a combined 16 runs in the series finale.

As for the Giants, four of their five games against the Reds played Over the posted price.

Of course last night saw ten combined runs and another Over. Dating back to the middle of May these teams have gone Over in four of their last six series meetings.

Yes playoff baseball is usually about the pitching, and yes Chris Carpenter and Ryan Vogelsong have been stingy down the stretch, but one or two big innings tonight puts this game easily Over this low total.

Take the Over in Game Two.

3♦ ST. LOUIS-SAN FRANCISCO OVER

Chris Jordan.

Alright, let's talk about this free winner out of baseball, as I'm siding with the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 2 of the National League Championship Series, a showdown between the past two World Series champions for the right to play for this year's title

Coming into the series, the road team had won five of the last eight meetings, dating back to 2011. Then the defending World Series champions won Game 1 last night, 6-4.

Tonight I like the Redbirds specifically because of starter Chris Carpenter. Point blank, the team's ace starter is 10-2 with a 2.88 ERA in 16 career postseason starts. The Cardinals are 13-3 in those games, while he's won five straight playoff decisions.

And we're talking about the most resilient team in Major League Baseball the past 12 months. From the comebacks last postseason, to them winning 12 of their last 16 games, beating Atlanta in the first-ever one-game wild card contest and then the wild finish in Washington D.C.

Fact is, St. Louis is in the NLCS for the seventh time since the start of the 2000 season, and this, I believe, is its game to lose after winning last night's game. The Cardinals have become road warriors of late, having won eight of their last 10 with a suitcase in hand.

4♦ ST. LOUIS

Matt Rivers

I am on a 36-21 free play run.

For Monday, free play goes on the San Francisco Giants to get a win in Game Two of the NLCS.

The Giants have yet to win at home this postseason, but I feel tonight is the night they break through.

San Fran starter Ryan Vogelsong has really settled in, allowing just two earned runs to score his last 22 innings pitched. The Giants righty is 7-4 at home this season with an ERA of 2.86.

St. Louis will go with Chris Carpenter who has a load of postseason experience, but has only made four starts this season. Carpenter did not allow a run in his start last series versus Washington, but his 7 hits allowed in his 5-plus inning win give one pause for concern.

The odds say San Francisco is due to win one game in front of their crowd this October, so it might as well be tonight.

Take the Giants.

2♦ SAN FRANCISCO

Anthony Redd

Going for a fourth straight football comp play winner tonight, and third in a row in the NFL.

San Diego enters tonight's contest ranked 12th in total defense, allowing an average of 20.2 points a game. Denver is right on the Chargers' heels, ranked 12th with a per game yield of 22.2 points. If you do the match, that's a combined average of 42.4 points, which is a shade of five points below tonight's posted total of 47.5. But something tells me the under is NOT the way to go in this contest pitting two division rivals both in search of a much needed win.

The dynamics are there for the over. San Diego's pass defense was shredded by Drew Brees in last week's 31-24 loss in New Orleans. The secondary was also scorched in a 27-3 home loss to Atlanta back in Week Three.

The Falcons' Matt Ryan also picked apart Denver's defense in a 27-21 Monday night road loss to Atlanta in Week Two. The Broncos also couldn't stop Matt Schaub and the Texans in a 31-25 home loss a week later and they were equally defenselesss in a 31-21 loss at New England last weekend.

I'm sure both teams will want to establish the run, especially the Chargers, who need to keep Peyton Manning off the field as much as possible. But that might be easier said than done, and ultimately when both Manning and Rivers are cranking it up there will be plenty of scoring opportunities.

2♦ OVER