Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, October 17

Accuwager

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
Prediction: New York Jets -7

The Miami Dolphins (0-4 SU, 0-3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U) are in big trouble NFL gamblers so much trouble, that this pick is as easy as pie. Not only has Miami not won a single game this season, but they've looked increasingly inept in not reaching the 20-point plateau in each of their last three games. The winless Fins had a bye in week 5 following their uninspiring 26-16 Week 4 loss to San Diego as a 6.5-point road underdog in Week 4. Miami will face a New York Jets (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS, 4-1 O/U) team that has lost two straight games and will be in all-out 'desperation mode' in this AFC East divisional showdown. The Jets fell to New England 30-12 as a 7.5-point road underdog in Week 5 and now they're going to take out all of their frustration on Miami's mostly clueless backup quarterback Matt Moore. New York is 9-3 ATS in its last dozen games against a team with a losing record while Miami has gone 0-6-1 ATS in its L/7 games overall. The Dolphins have won four of the last five games against the Jets, but there's no way it happening in this contest. Keep it simple and back the New York Jets to win and cash in!

David Chan

Anaheim Mighty Ducks @ San Jose Sharks
PICK: San Jose Sharks

I bet value where I see it and expect the Sharks to take a bite out of the Ducks tonight.

Anaheim played in front of its home town crowd last night against the St. Louis Blues, and I fully expect San Jose to make the most of this opportunity.

The Sharks opened the year with a big 6-3 win over Phoenix and then had a five-day layover before back to back games @ Anaheim and vs. St. Louis, which resulted in back to back losses, 1-0 and 4-2 respectively.

The Sharks play with "revenge" here.

Both of these teams will contend for a playoff position this season, but there are overwhelming factors that point to San Jose as the sharp wager in this match-up, and when coupled with what I feel is a favorable line, all signs point to a play on the Sharks in this one!

Jim Feist

Anaheim Ducks vs San Jose Sharks
Pick: San Jose Sharks

In any sport, playing back-to-back nights is tough, but particularly in the NHL. Hockey is such a physical sport that playing this type of spot has to be much tougher on the legs. And, usually the top goaltender gets the night off. The Ducks are in this position, having played Sunday night at home and then traveling up north to take on the Sharks tonight. After playing their first two games in Europe, the Ducks returned home for their next two games. The scoring for Anaheim has been tough, garnering just four goals in its first three games. And now the Ducks will also be without left win Jason Blake, who will miss three months with a arm injury. San Jose (1-2-0) sits at the bottom of the Pacific division, but it's early in the season. The Sharks won their opener, then lost their next two games. Despite some lackluster scoring numbers, the Sharks are first thus far in the league in Power Play Pct (33.3%). This is a rematch of last Friday's win by the Ducks over the Sharks, 1-0. I see another low scoring game, but I also have to look for any edge early in the season and that's going against a team playing back-to-back like Anaheim is tonight. Take the Sharks

Vegas Experts

Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs

Two pleasant surprises meet in Toronto this evening with the unbeaten Maple Leafs hosting an Avs team looking to complete a perfect 5-0 eastern swing. Look for home ice to be the deciding factor here as the Leafs are 10-1 when coming off a home win by 1 goal. Meanwhile, fatigue could be a factor for Colorado as this is their fifth road game in the last seven days, a brutal scheduling stretch to start the season. This is only game #4 for the Leafs, meanwhile, and we like the rested home team to get it done.

Play on: Toronto

Rob Vinciletti

Colorado Avalanche vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Play: Toronto Maple Leafs

What we want to do in this game is play against road teams in the 5th and final game of a road trip if they won the first four and are playing a winning team that won its last game. Colorado has won the first four on this trip and now travel to Toronto for the finale against a Mapleleaf team that is undefeated in early action, winning their first three at home. Toronto won the only game between these two last year back in March in Colorado. Toronto is the play here tonight.

SPORTS WAGERS

Miami +7 over N.Y. JETS

The Dolphins come off their bye with a new quarterback. Matt Moore lost the quarterback competition in the summer but is installed as the starter now. Moore played almost the entire Charger game and ended with only 167 yards and no scores with one interception. The Jets are on their own three-game losing streak and are not likely to show any mercy here. However, these two are bitter rivals and have a history of bizarre games. Last year, when the Jets were a whole lot better than they are this year, Miami came in here and won 10-6. After losing to the Pats last week, Rex Ryan said the Patriots are the better team right now. Right now? What are you going to do Rex, fly around earth like Superman and turn back time? Back to when you could run the ball and stop the run? And people hardly noticed how average Mark Sanchez was? The Jets have two wins. Their first win came in week 1 over the Boys in a game they had no business winning. Dallas dominated but in true Cowboy spirit, they found a way to lose. In week 2, the Jets beat the Jag-wires then proceeded to lose three straight to Oakland, Baltimore and New England and all three were pretty ugly. The Jets do a lot of smack-talking but they no longer have the personnel to back it up. Despite being 0-4, three of the Dolphins four losses came against New England, Houston (when they were healthy) and San Diego, three of the more prolific offenses in the game and the Fish were in all of them. They also lost to Cleveland but were the much better team. Miami is not as bad as people think and the Jets are the second most overhyped team in the NFL. Even with Matt Moore, the Dolphins can not only keep this one close, they can win outright. Play: Miami +7 +100 (Risking 2 units).

Colorado +125 over TORONTO

The Maple Leafs are 3-0 and that quick start has opened up an opportunity to take back some nice prices against them until they inevitably start losing. The Leafs three wins thus far have come against a flat Habs club on opening night, 2-0, a reeling Sens club, 6-5 and this past Saturday they beat Calgary 3-2. Those are three non-playoff teams and both Ottawa and Calgary might finish 1-2 in the least amount of points this NHL season. Contrary to what is being advertised, the Leafs are not much better than last season, if it all. They’re loaded with a few second line players and a lot of third line players, other team’s castoffs and a defense that outside of Luke Schenn is a mistake waiting to happen. After three wins in rather unimpressive fashion, the Leafs will now face a confident Av’s team that has won four in a row, all on the road. Colorado is creating a ton of scoring chances with three outstanding lines that should be able to wreak havoc on a Leafs team that has not experienced this type of attack yet. There is nothing but money to be made against the Leafs when they are favored, as there are going to be exposed for what they are very soon. The Av’s have played a lot of games recently and they’ll start ex-Leaf J.S. Giguere tonight but that’s not going to deter us from taking back a tag against these overvalued hosts. Play: Colorado +125 (Risking 2 units).

Florida +151 over TAMPA BAY

We pegged the Lightning as an overvalued club at the start of the year and sentiments have not changed one bit. These two played Saturday night in Florida and had it not been for the outstanding work by Mathieu Garon, the score would not have been close. Florida ended up winning in a shootout and there’s no reason they can’t win again. The Bolts have serious issues throughout their line-up. They’re “top heavy” with one great line and then there’s a dramatic decline. Defensively, they play about as well as Lindsay Lohan handles her money in Hollywood after a bender. The Panthers are gaining more confidence with every shift. This is a very decent team that the oddsmakers have not caught on about yet. They grind, they create, they’re sound defensively and they’re going to win its fair share of games. The Panthers won’t dazzle anyone but what they will do is go nose-to-nose with anyone, fight for every loose puck and methodically do all the little things right. With a take-back of 3-2, the Panthers are absolutely undervalued here in a game that is at worse a 50/50 proposition. If Dwayne Roloson is in net, that proposition increases in our favor. Play: Florida +151 (Risking 2 units).

Eddie Keen

Nashville Predators at Edmonton Oilers
Play: Nashville Predators

Nashville is a small road favorite in this matchup tonight and should have no problem beating Edmonton. Nashville started off the season with back to back road wins over Columbus and St. Louis as small road underdogs and are back on the road tonight. Edmonton has only played three games all season, losing two of the three and are coming off a home loss to Vancouver. Nashville is 3-1 against Edmonton when playing at Edmonton over the last three seasons and will have another win tonight. Nashville is 8-2 in road games after back to back home games over the last two seasons while Edmonton is only 4-20 SU after a division game and 0-9 SU after a home loss against a division rival. Don’t expect a very strong performance from Edmonton in tonight’s matchup as Nashville takes the easy win. Good luck -

Jack Jones

New York Jets -6.5

The New York Jets return home after a brutal 3-game road trip with losses to the Raiders, Ravens and Patriots. The Jets have been a completely different team at home, going 2-0 while outscoring opponents 29.5 to 13.5 on average.

The winless Miami Dolphins come into town tonight and things don't appear to be getting any better for them even with a bye week. Miami is going to have to start Matt Moore at quarterback, and they may also be without starting running back Daniel Thomas for this one as he deals with a hamstring injury.

New York is very healthy coming into this one, and C Nick Mangold is expected to play Monday. His absence on their road trip was a big reason why the Jets did not fare well, because he is arguably the most important piece of their offense as he makes all the calls.

The Dolphins are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Miami is 13-28-1 ATS in their last 42 vs. a team with a losing record. The Jets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a losing record. While the Dolphins realize they have almost no chance of making the playoffs, the Jets believe they can still get in and this is a must-win game tonight if they are going to. Bet the Jets Monday.

Steve Janus

Dolphins/Jets UNDER 42.5

This game has the makings of a defensive battle from start to finish.
The Dolphins will be starting Matt Moore at quarterback, while the Jets don't seem to know whether they are a passing or running team.

Both of these teams are going to come into this game extremely motivated to play their best football and leave with a win.

The Jets defense hasn't been great to start the season, but they have played a number of talented teams (Dallas, Oakland, Baltimore, and New England). They should be able to keep Miami in check, especially with a backup quarterback making his first start of the season.

The Dolphins come into this game off a bye, and are much better defensively that what they have displayed early in the season. Miami faces this Jets offense twice a season, and the extra week of preparation should only aid in their ability to keep New York from running up the score.

The UNDER is 14-4 in Dolphins last 18 games as a road underdog, and 27-12 in the Jets last 39 games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. BET THE UNDER!

Dave Price

1 Unit on Dolphins/Jets OVER 42

Play over on any team (Jets in this case) that has allowed 25 points or more in 2 straight games when matched up against an opponent that has scored 17 points or less in 3 straight games are 39-15 the last 10 seasons. Teams in this situation have faced an average total of 41 and have combined with their foes to score an average of 45.9 points. This system is a killer 18-4 the last 5 seasons and a near-perfect 7-1 the last 3 seasons. We'll take the over.

George Christopher

Penguins / Jets Over 5.5

Winnipeg’s offensive problems have been compounded by poor play in net. Chris Mason and Ondrej Pavelec have combined for a 4.33 GAA and league-worst .852 save percentage. Pavelec is starting for the Jets tonight.

The Jets have started their season off on the wrong foot and are currently 0-3. But tonight they may get their first win of the season. Coach Claude Noel, according to the press, blew up on his players after the morning skate. And if you follow hockey, when ever a coach blows up on you or the team, you know that team comes out playing the best they can play. And what makes this interesting is the fact that Winnipeg is playing at home tonight in front of their home crowd.

As for the Penguins they are still without Sidney Crosby and Evegeni Malkin, but are still averaging 3.0 goals per game without them. Thanks to James Neal and his league leading 24 shots on goal. And if he keeps this pace up against an Jets team with horrific goaltending, you know what’s going to happen.

Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAY

Miami +7 over NY JETS: The Jets are just 5-18 ATS vs teams that allow 375 ypg or more since 1992 and just 11-25 ATS off a divisional road loss since 1992. The Jets come into this one really struggling on offense as they are 26th overall at 297 ypg, while that number even dips in the last 3 games as they have put up just 281 ypg over that span. Further evidence of their struggles was on display last week when the garnered just 255 yards vs a New England defense that is worst in the league. The Jets normally have a good ground game, but this year they are 31st in rushing at 76.2 ypg and they may not be able to run is this one either as the Dolphins have allowed just 107 ypg on the ground which is 13th in the league. Without a running game, Sanchez has struggled, hitting just 56% of his passes with 8 TD's vs 5 INT's, plus his 6.8 ypa is 23rd in the league. Miami's defense has really struggled vs the pass this year, allowing 307 ypg, but a loser look shows us that 3 of their 4 teams they plays (Houston, SD and N.E.) are all ranked in the top 11 in passing yards, while they allowed just 210 through the air vs a weak Cleveland (19th) team and they Jets are worse than them at 22nd in the league. Miami offense will suffer a bit with Chad Henne out, but More is a bit more mobile of a QB and that's the kind of QB that can give the Jets fits. After the week off you can expect the Miami offense to be a bit better in this one, while the defense will have a strong showing vs a struggling Jet offense. Miami may not win outright, but they will keep it close.

3 UNIT PLAYS

POWER SYSTEM PLAY

NY Jets/ Miami Over 42: Miami has had the extra week to work in Matt Moore to their offense and it will pay dividends in the AFC East battle. The Jet defense is solid, allowing just 337 ypg, but they can be run on as they have allowed 135 ypg on the ground (26th) and with a mobile QB and a decent running game (115 ypg) Miami will be able to run on this team and that should open up some throwing lanes for Moore. The Jet offense has struggled, but I do look for them to open it up a bit tonight vs an underrated Miami defense. TO's could play a part as the Jets have given it away a bunch, while an inexperienced Moore may be good for a TO or 2. The TO's could create some short fields for these struggling offenses. In looking at alot of the Numbers you would expect a lower scoring game, but this is a divisional MNF game between two desperate teams and that means a full playbook will be in use tonight. This game will be higher scoring than most think. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- Play the Over when a team that allowed 25 or more points in back-to-back games is playing a team that scored 17 or less in 3 straight games. This system is 39-15 the last 10 years.

Pittsburgh -130 over WINNIPEG: Talk about domination. Pitt is 33-11 the last 44 meetings between the Thrashers/ Jets franchise, including winning 12 of the last 13, in which they outscored this team by a 50-27 count. This Pens team is very deep and talented as evidenced by their 3-1-2 start, without starts Crosby and Malkin. Winnipeg is still looking for it's first win of the year, but it will not happened tonight vs a a Pitt team that has dominated them in the past.

2 UNIT PLAY

TAMPA BAY -152 over Florida: The Panthers are just 12-39-1 in their last 52 games in the 2nd of a home and home situation, while the lightning are 10-1 in their last 11 games in the 2nd of a home and home. The Lightning have struggled out the gate, but they will get it back tonight with a solid home win here.

1 UNIT PLAY

Pittsburgh/ Winnipeg Under 5.5: The pens are missing some offensive firepower, but their goaltending is solid and the Jets won't score much. Look for a low scoring Pitt win here.

Doug Upstone

Colorado / Toronto Under

Both Colorado and Toronto have gotten off to fast starts in the NHL and been putting the puck in the back of the net with regularity. However, for Monday night Play UNDER on road teams like Colorado against the total after a four-game unbeaten streak, with a winning record on the year, playing another winning team in the first half of the season. (51-19 L5Y)

NHL Predictions

Florida Panthers +145

These two teams played each other Saturday night in Florida, with the Panthers winning 3-2 in a shootout. The Panthers capitalized on 2 powerplay opportunities and outshot the Lightning 38-30. Tonight will be the Lightning's home opener, as they opened the season with 5 straight road games. Tampa Bay won their first game of the season in Carolina 5-1, but has since lost 4 straight (Boston, Washington, New York Islanders, Florida). The Lightning haven't looked to good to start the season. The same can't be said for the Panthers, who have surprised most coming out to a quick 2-1 start to the season. They opened the season with a 2-0 win against the Islanders in New York, and then went on to lose in Pittsburgh in a game they played well in before beating Tampa Bay in their home opener. Jose Theodore has looked solid with a 1.97 GAA and .930 SV%. Dwayne Roloson will be in net for the Lightning, and he has been playing very poor. Roloson is 1-1-1 with a 4.65 GAA and .883 SV%. Florida has owned this rivalry lately, winning 5 of their last 7 meetings. Theodore has been the better goalie this season, and there is no reason that Florida can't come in and beat the Lightning to take this home-and-home. Good value tonight with the Panthers.