Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, October 18,2010

Craig Trapp

Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Play: Texas Rangers

Lee has owned the NYY and his great postseason pitching continues today. Petite is still rusty from all the time off and against the best fastball hitting lineup will be waiting on him. The Rangers need this one and they really roll tonight.

LT Profits

Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees

With all due respect to Cliff Lee of the Texas Rangers, who just might be the best pitcher in baseball right now, Andy Pettitte of the New York Yankees has proven to be one of the best Big Game pitchers in baseball history, and he continued that pattern in the ALDS at Minnesota.

Add in the fact that the Yankees do not want to give Texas any hope of winning this series, as a win here would put the Rangers up 2-1, and it is hard not to back the Yankees as rare home underdogs in this spot.

The bookmakers have set the betting line on the Yankees at +103 tonight in Game 3 of the ALCS.

As much as we love Lee, we simply cannot look past the fact that he has been installed as a favorite here in Yankee Stadium after he was actually an underdog in both starts at Tampa Bay during the ALDS! The fact that he is now favored vs. a much better team vs. a pitcher with Pettitte’s post-season track record is a tad perplexing.

Remember also that the Yankees scored four runs off of Lee in two of his three starts against them this season, and a repeat performance tonight would probably be enough to snap Lee’s own post-season winning streak, as he is now 6-0 all-time.

As impressive as that is, Pettitte has a much longer track record, as he is 19-9 all-time in post-season including 18-8 while with the Yankees, and he has not lost a post-season game as a Yankee since losing a World Series game vs. the Florida Marlins way back in 2003! Returning to the here and now, Pettitte missed two months of the season with an elbow injury before returning on September 9 and using the final month of the season as just a conditioning period.

Pettitte had just one Quality Start in five starts after returning, but once the playoffs began, he returned to his old way as he allowed just two runs and five hits in seven innings vs. the Twins, serving notice that he is back and ready for another strong post-season. Also, despite missing those two months, do not lose sight of the fact that Pettitte is 12-3 with a 3.24 ERA this year.

Even with Lee on the mound, Pettitte and the Yankees as home underdogs look like the obvious value play tonight.

JIM FEIST

ST. LOUIS BLUES / CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
PLAY: CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS

Two Central division foes matchup here on Monday as the Blues travel to the Windy City to take on the Blackhawks. Only Columbus is below .500 in the division and this once again looks to be a tough season with the Red Wings, Predators and Hawks all battling it out. The Hawks are led by right wing Marian Hossa, who leads the team with five goals and six assists. Marty Turco is between the pipes and is 2-1 so far this young season with a 2.97 goals against average. The Hawks are loaded again this year with Patrick Sharp at center and Patrick Kane on the wing. Chicago is coming off a 4-3 over Buffalo on Saturday. St Louis is improved, but they play in a division that has lots of good teams so they are likely to finish fourth this season. The Blues have five points thus far, two back of Nashville, Detroit and Chicago. Center T.J. Oshie is leading he team with four points while Jaroslav Halak is 2-1 with a 2.00 goals against average. The Blues will upset some good teams this year at home, but not tonight on the road at Chicago. The Hawks have too much talent for this club and while the price is a bit steep, it's still worth a small play here on Monday.

Tom Freese

New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs
Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs are 4-0 scoring 16 goals in those 4 wins. The Maple Leafs are 9-4 their last 13 home games and they are 5-2 their last 7 games as home favorites. Toronto is 20-6-1 at home vs. the Islanders. New York is 2-3 this year. The Islanders are 10-21 their last 31 games following a loss in their last game and they 15-59 their last 74 road games. The Islanders 22-47 when playing their fourth game in six days and they are 10-21 off a win.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Titans/Jags UNDER 45

The Under is worth a shot tonight when you consider that plays Under on any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (Tennessee in this case), after a game where 50 total points or more were scored, against an opponent after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored, are 95-51 since 1983. That's a favorable 65.1% winning percentage over the last 27 years. It is also worth noting that we are only seeing 41.9 total points scored on average in this situation. In addition, this system is a profitable 15-6 (71.4%) the last 3 seasons, and 1-0 already this year. 3 of the last 4 games in this matchup have gone Under. With as poorly as these two teams have looked defensively in recent weeks, I expect much better defensive performances from both to keep this one Under tonight.

SPORTS WAGERS

JACKSONVILLE +1.30 over Tennessee

Both these teams come in 3-2 and the winner of this game will be in a three-way tie with Indy and Houston for first in the AFC South. The loser will be just a game behind. The perception is that the Titans are a legit threat while the Jags are somewhat of an aberration and that perception provides us with an opportunity to “sell” high on the visitors. The Titans are actually the imposters here. They opened the year with a win over Oakland and a subsequent loss to the Steelers. That makes them average so far. Tennessee’s next game was a 29-10 win over the Giants and that’s perhaps the most misleading score of the year thus far. The Giants ate them alive, they outgained them through the air 364-110 but committed three key turnovers and 11 penalties to do them in. The G-Men moved at will against this Titans “D” and so did the Boys last week. In fact, Dallas gained over 500 yards of total offense, 511 to be exact but just like the Giants, the Cowboys tuned it over three times and committed 12 penalties for 133 yards. You talk about winning through smoking mirrors and that’s the Tennessee Titans. Sandwiched between the wins over the G-Men and Boys, Tennessee lost at home to Denver and once again they were shredded through the air for over 300 yards against. The Titans don’t do anything well except run the ball and by the way, the Jags run the ball better. In fact, the Jags rank 3rd in the league in rushing with 146 per game while the Titans rank fifth. So, what we have here is a home dog on Monday night playing a team that can’t stop the marching band. The Titans should be 1-4 because they’ve been not outplayed but grossly outplayed by every team they’ve played with the exception of the Raiders. The Jags lost to two good teams, the Eagles and Chargers. They have wins over Denver, Indy and a 36-26 road win over the Bills. They host a rare Monday nighter, they’ll play to a sellout crowd for the first time in a long time and in no way should they be the pooch against this true imposter. Play: Jacksonville +1.30 (Risking 2 units).

St. Louis +1.35 over CHICAGO

In terms of luck, the Blue Notes have not had any. They’re 2-1-1 thus far but they’ve outplayed every opponent and badly outplayed three of them. In its last game vs Dallas, the Blues ran into a hot goaltender and lost in OT but they out-chanced the Stars 3-1 and outshot them 43-25. Over its last three games, two losses and a win, St. Louis has allowed 14, 22 and 25 shots on net respectively and if they had solid goaltending they’d likely be undefeated. Both Jaroslav Halak and Ty Conklin have not been sharp but one would expect Halak to pick it up. Fact is, the Blue Notes are playing tremendous defensively and they’re creating plenty of scoring chances for themselves. The Blackhawks are not even close to being the same team they were a year ago. They lost the guts of its team and they’re very beatable this season. They’ve already played six games and despite winning its last over the Sabres, Buffalo dominated play for most of the game. Because of its Cup win last season, the Blackhawks are way overvalued and we’re going to keep playing against them under those conditions. Play: St. Louis +1.35 (Risking 2 units).

TAMPA BAY -½ +1.31 over Dallas

The Stars are off to a 4-0-0 start to the season but that doesn’t mean there aren’t issues. One of them is the shots disparity through those first four games. The Stars have been outshot 146-90.

They are giving up 37 shots per game, which ranks 27th in the league and have given up more than 40 shots twice in the first four games. Dallas’ 4-0 starts is misleading, as they could just as easily be 0-4 after not outplaying any of its first four opponents. In fact, they’ve been dominated in three of its four games and again, that 4-0 start is a complete aberration. What makes this play even more appealing is the fact that the Bolts are coming off a 6-0 loss and you know for sure that’s not sitting well with them. It looks like Vinny is out tonight but that’s not going to deter us one bit. His absence will inspire this talented squad to dig down even deeper and with or without LeCavalier the Lightning are simply the better team playing at home. Goaltender Kari Lehtonen has won three of four games on his own for Dallas but they’re not going to keep winning games when they get so badly outplayed. This is not a 5-0 team, no way, no how. Play: Tampa Bay -½ +1.31 (Risking 2 units).

Colorado +1.07 over N.Y. RANGERS

The Rangers offer up nothing as the chalk. This is a bad hockey team with poor defense, very little offense and the only thing they have going for them is a great goaltender but even he’s been a little shaky this year. The Rangers opened the year with a win over Buffalo but subsequently lost its next two to the Islanders and Leafs. They allowed 10 goals in those two losses and they were completely dominated by the Leafs in its last game. That 4-3 OT loss to Toronto is a hugely flattering score for the Blue Shirts. The Avalanche, meanwhile, will not get outworked. They may not win every game but you’re going to get your money’s worth and an honest effort from them when you bet on them. Colorado’s biggest flaw is a defense with very little depth but they’re learning, they’re getting better and they have an outstanding goaltender to bail them out. Offensively, the Avalanche will roll out three very good lines that will wear out the opposition with relentless forechecking. Colorado has already beaten Chicago, Detroit and the Devils and they surely are not taking a step up in class here. Also note that this is a rare opportunity for the Avalanche to play in New York and the mystique of MSG. They’ve played here once in the past five years and every club that rarely plays here gets extra jacked up when they do. Play: Colorado +1.07 (Risking 2 units).

EZWINNERS

Pittsburgh Penguins -170

Sidney Crosby and the Penguins have won three out of their last four games after dropping the first two games of the season at their new arena. Tonight they face a struggling Ottawa team that they ousted from the playoffs last season. Crosby had his best game of the season in Pittsburgh's last outing and I look for him to have a big night against the Senators. Crosby's scoring outburst was key to Pittsburgh's elimination of the Senators last spring and I look for him to pick up where he left off. Ottawa has started slowly and is coming off a 4-3 loss at Montreal on Saturday. The Senators squandered a two-goal lead midway through the second period and have yet to score more than three goals in a game. Play on Pittsburgh.

Sports Insights

New York Rangers +110 over Colorado Avalanche

With only 4-5 games played by each team this season there is not a lot of history for us to look at when judging these games, which for our purposes is a good thing. This forces us to forget the teams, their records and everything else going on with the game and concentrate on the lines, market percentages and how they are moving in relation to each other.

We are liking the looks of the New York Rangers. With 69% of the public taking the Avalanche in moneyline bets the line has dropped from -125 at open Sunday around 1:30 p.m. to -115 at CRIS. This game has the second most bets, 8323, in the NHL today according to our betting trends as of release. A Smart Money play has been triggered on this game, but this early in the season, there isn't enough info to warrant giving it a lot of weight.

Sean Murphy

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
PICK: Tennessee Titans -3

We're still able to play the Titans at plus money minus the three points at most books here on Monday afternoon - so I'll bite.

According to this line, these teams would be considered even on a neutral field. I just don't believe that's an accurate reflection of where these two teams are at right now.

The Titans have already gone on the road and won in hostile environments - notching victories both in New York (Giants) and Dallas. They're a quality running team that also plays solid defense - two keys I look for when backing a road team in the NFL.

Match these two teams up, and I'm hard-pressed to come up with any advantage the Jaguars possess. Sure, they're at home, but they've already been stomped 28-3 by the Eagles here this season. In terms of coaching, I give the significant edge to Jeff Fisher over Jack Del Rio. The passing games are virtually even with Vince Young against David Garrard. Defensively, I give the Titans an edge, as they've been much better against the pass.

The only area where the Jags usually hold an advantage is in the backfield with Maurice Jones-Drew. However, in this particular case, they don't own an edge, as the Titans have arguably the best running back in football in Chris Johnson.

Home field hasn't meant much in this division rivalry in recent years. Tennessee has won two of its last three trips to Jacksonville, and the road team has managed to split the last six meetings ATS.

The Jags will put up a fight, but in the end, the Titans are the ones that will improve to 4-2 on the season with a big Monday night victory. Take Tennessee.