SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL
Denver (5-0 SU and ATS) at San Diego (2-2, 1-3 ATS)
The surprising Broncos shoot for their sixth straight victory to begin the season while taking a commanding lead in the AFC West when they battle the Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium.
Denver rallied from a 17-7 halftime deficit against New England last week, earning a 20-17 overtime win as a three-point home underdog. The Broncos outgained the Patriots 424-305, and QB Kyle Orton (25-for-48, 330 yards, 2 TDs) thoroughly outplayed former league MVP Tom Brady (19-for-33, 215 yards, 2 TDs). Under first-year coach Josh McDaniels, Denver is off to a 5-0 start for the first time since winning their first 13 games of the 1998 season en route to the franchise’s second Super Bowl championship.
San Diego was off last week after a humiliating 38-28 Sunday night loss at Pittsburgh on Oct. 4. In that defeat, the Chargers fell behind 28-0 before finally getting on the scoreboard with 90 seconds remaining in the third quarter. QB Philip Rivers (21-for-36, 254 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) had another solid game, but San Diego finished with deficits of 32-17 in first downs, 497-251 in total offense and 177-16 in rushing yards.
The Chargers have dominated this rivalry lately, winning five of the last six meetings (5-0-1 ATS), including three straight at home (3-0 ATS). Denver’s lone victory during this stretch came in Week 2 last year – a controversial last-second 39-38 win as a one-point home favorite in the infamous “Ed Hochuli Game.” However, San Diego avenged that loss in a big way with a season-ending 52-21 rout as a seven-point home favorite in a game that decided the AFC West champion.
San Diego’s last four wins against Denver have come by margins of 28, 38, 20 and 31 points. Also in the past five meetings, the favorite is 4-0-1 ATS and the host is 3-1-1 ATS.
Orton and Rivers entered this week as the ninth- and 10th-rated passers in the NFL. Orton is completing 63 percent of his passes for 247.2 ypg with seven TDs and just one INT, which came on a Hail Mary to end the first half last week. Rivers is connecting at a 58.7 percent clip for 311.3 ypg with six TDs and three INTs.
Denver brings the NFL’s top-ranked scoring defense into Qualcomm tonight, as it has given up a league-low 43 points (8.6 per game) all year, surrendering 10 points or less in the first four games and giving up just four touchdowns. The Broncos rank second in total defense (252.8 total ypg), sixth in rushing defense (81 ypg) and fifth in passing defense (171.8 ypg), and they’ve forced 12 turnovers.
Unlike the Broncos, the Chargers’ defense has been a disaster all year, giving up 25.5 points and 365.8 total yards per game, including 151 rushing yards per game, figures that rank 25th, 26th and 27th in the 32-team league. On the other side of the ball, San Diego has gotten nothing out of its running game, gaining just 215 yards on the ground through four games, for a league-low 53.8 rushing ypg.
The Broncos entered this season in ATS slumps of 14-34 overall, 6-14 on the road and 7-21-1 against the AFC, but they’ve cashed in all five games this year, including both road contests and all four battles against the AFC. Additionally, the Denver is on pointspread runs of 5-2 on the road and 6-2 as an underdog, but it is also just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six AFC West contests and 2-5 ATS in its last seven Week 6 affairs.
The Chargers are in ATS funks of 1-4 overall (all against the AFC), 1-4 in October and 3-7 as a favorite. On the other hand, Norv Turner’s club is on positive pointspread surges of 4-1 at home, 11-5 as a home favorite, 21-5 when laying between 3½ and 10 points at Qualcomm, 21-8-4 against AFC West rivals, 18-7-3 after a SU loss and 5-0 in Week 6. Also, San Diego has won and covered three straight games on Monday night, including a 23-3 home win on Dec. 24, 2007.
Denver has stayed well under the total in all five games this year and is riding additional “under” streaks of 4-0 against the AFC, 5-0-1 in October, 4-1 as an underdog, 4-1 in Week 6, 10-1 after a SU win and 8-0 after a spread-cover. However, 10 of the Broncos’ last 14 divisional contests have gone over the posted price. For San Diego, the under is on runs of 6-2-1 at home, 5-2 in October, 9-2 in Week 6 and 4-0 when coming off a bye, but the over is 4-1 in its last five overall, 4-1-1 in its last six as a favorite and 3-0-1 in its last four against AFC West rivals.
Finally, five of the last six Broncos-Chargers clashes have soared over the total, and the over is 16-5-1 in Monday Night Football dating to last season (5-1 this year).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
ALCS
N.Y. Yankees (5-0) at L.A. Angels (3-2)
After winning the first two games at home, the Yankees head to Southern California looking to take a commanding 3-0 lead in this best-of-7 ALCS with veteran lefty Andy Pettitte (15-8, 4.07 ERA) on the hill for New York opposite right-hander Jered Weaver (17-8, 3.55) at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, Calif.
The Yankees got a 10th-inning, game-tying homer from Alex Rodriguez and then an error in the 13th gave them a 4-3 victory Saturday night in Game 2. New York took Game 1 by a 4-1 score behind a dominating outing from ace CC Sabathia.
New York – which is back in the ALCS after getting bounced in the first round in 2005, 2006 and 2007 – has had little trouble in the playoffs so far, winning four of its five games by multiple runs. The Yankees, who had a 13-year streak of playoff appearances snapped last season, are on impressive runs of 46-17 overall, 51-18 after a victory, 10-3 as a road ‘dog, 5-1 on Monday and 4-0 against A.L. West opponents. However, the last time the Yankees were in the ALCS, they blew a 3-0 series lead to the Red Sox in 2004, and they haven’t advanced to the World Series since 2003.
The Angels bounced longtime playoff nemesis Boston in three games in the first round, but this is just their sixth-ever appearance in the ALCS, having lost four of the first five. Going back to the end of the regular season, the Halos have won 10 of 13 overall, six of seven at home, five straight as a favorite and 10 of 14 after an off-day. However, they’ve dropped 12 of their last 16 playoff games, including six of eight at home.
These teams have met just twice in postseason play, both in the best-of-5 divisional round, and the Angels won both times in 2002 and 2005. In the regular season this year, the teams split their 10 meetings, with L.A. going 4-1 at home. In fact, the host is 16-4 in the last 20 clashes going back to the beginning of last August (9-3 this season).
With Pettitte on the mound, the Yankees are on positive streaks of 9-3 overall, 18-7 on Mondays, 4-1 as a road ‘dog and 7-3 when he gets seven or more days off. He pitched on Oct. 11 in the clinching Game 3 of the ALDS at Minnesota, allowing one run on three hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 4-1 victory. With that performance, the 37-year-old became the winningest pitcher in playoff history, improving to 15-9 with a 3.89 ERA in 36 starts, including 5-2 with a 4.13 ERA in 11 outings in the League Championship Series.
Pettitte faced the Angels three times this season, going 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA, allowing a combined 14 runs over 16 innings, and both losses came in Southern California. For his career, Pettitte is 12-10 with a 4.70 ERA in 28 career starts against Los Angeles, including 6-7 with a 4.19 ERA in 16 outings at Angel Stadium.
Weaver went 10-3 with a 2.72 ERA this season at home, and he’s 2-1 with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts overall going back to the end of the regular season. Weaver was outstanding in Game 2 of the ALDS against the Red Sox, allowing one run on two hits over 7 1/3 innings of a 4-1 victory. He’s now made three postseason starts the last three Octobers, going 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA. With the Southern California native on the hill, the Angels are on runs of 18-8 overall, 36-16 at home and 20-8 at home against winning teams.
Weaver battled the Yankees three times in the regular season, allowing 11 runs (10 earned) in 19 1/3 innings, with the Angels losing twice. However, L.A. did earn a 14-8 win the only time Weaver faced New York at home. In seven career starts against the Yanks, Weaver is 4-2 with a 5.88 ERA in 41 1/3 innings.
The Yankees are on a plethora of “under” streaks behind Pettitte, including 54-24-2 overall, 34-16-1 when he starts on the road and 9-3 when he faces A.L. West teams. As a team, New York is on “under” runs of 15-5-1 overall, 8-2 in playoff road games, 5-0-1 in playoff games overall, 4-0 after an off-day and 16-5-1 after a victory.
With Weaver on the hill, Los Angeles is on “under” streaks of 6-0-1 overall, 3-0-1 at home, 5-0-1 as a favorite and 6-1-3 when he gets nine or more days off. As a team, the Angels are on “under” runs of 34-16-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 7-1 at home against southpaws, 20-7-1 as a favorite and 5-1 against A.L. East teams.
In this rivalry, the under is 5-1 in the last six meetings overall and 7-2-1 in Pettitte’s last 10 starts in Anaheim, but the over is 5-1 in Weaver’s last six starts against the Yankees and 14-5 in the last 19 head-to-head clashes in Southern California.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NLCS
L.A. Dodgers (4-2) at Philadelphia (5-2)
The Phillies look to put a stranglehold on their National League Championship Series against the Dodgers when they send Joe Blanton (12-8, 4.07) to the Citizens Bank Park mound to face Randy Wolf (11-7, 3.30 ERA) in Game 4.
Philadelphia jumped on the Dodgers early and often on Sunday, scoring four runs in the first inning and two in the second en route to an 11-0 blowout victory in Game 3. Shane Victorino and Ryan Howard each drove in three runs, while starter Cliff Lee allowed just three hits and struck out 10 over eight shutout innings as the Phillies took a 2-1 series lead.
The Dodgers are still 6-2 in their last eight games and are on additional positive surges of 5-1 as an underdog, 5-3 as a playoff pup and 5-0 against right-handed starters, but they’re 1-5 in their last five on the highway. Also, they’ve lost six of eight NLCS games the last two years, all to the Phillies, going 0-3 at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 playoff contests dating to last year’s run to the World Series title, and they’re on additional surges of 6-2 overall, 34-15 at home, 9-1 in home playoff games, 9-1 as a playoff favorite, 12-3 against the N.L. West, 35-16 against left-handed starters (19-7 versus lefties at home) and 20-7 on Monday.
Going back to last August and including the playoffs, Philadelphia has won 13 of 19 against L.A. (8-2 at Citizens Bank Park). In addition to last year, the Phillies knocked the Dodgers out of the playoffs in 1983 after getting eliminated by Los Angeles in the 1977 and 1978 NLCS.
Wolf’s first-ever postseason start came in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Cardinals on Oct. 7, and he couldn’t get out of the fourth, allowing two runs on six hits and five walks in 3 2/3 innings. However, the Dodgers’ bullpen bailed him out, giving up just one run in 5 1/3 innings, as L.A. prevailed 5-3, improving to 10-2 in Wolf’s last 12 trips to the mound. Wolf has now allowed exactly two runs in four straight outings (3.43 ERA). He’s also yielded three runs or less in each of his last 11 outings and two runs or fewer in 14 of his last 19, with 15 of those qualifying as quality starts.
Wolf has been better on the road (7-4, 2.87 ERA) than at home (4-3, 3.67 ERA) in 2009. One of his road wins came in Philadelphia on May 13, when he yielded one run on three hits in six innings of a 9-2 victory. However, Wolf, who pitched for the Phillies from 1999-2006, got bombed by his former team three weeks later in L.A., giving up six runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings, losing 7-2. For his career, he’s 1-1 with a 4.12 ERA in three starts versus the Phillies.
Blanton made two relief appearances in the divisional round against Colorado, giving up a run in each contest while pitching a total of 3 2/3 innings. The big right-hander hasn’t started a game since Oct. 2 against Florida, when he allowed five runs on six hits in six innings of a 7-2 home loss. He also allowed five runs in 5 2/3 innings in his previous start on Sept. 27, though he managed to earn a 6-5 home win over Milwaukee.
The Phillies are 5-0 in Blanton’s last five starts on Monday and 7-2 in his last nine at home, where he’s 7-4 with a 3.82 ERA this season. Against the Dodgers, the Nashville native is 1-0 with a 3.30 ERA in five career starts, one of which came in Los Angeles on June 6 when he yielded just a run on five hits over six innings, yet got a no-decision as the Phillies lost 3-2 in 12 innings. Blanton also faced the Dodgers in last year’s NLCS, allowing three runs in five innings, with Philadelphia prevailing 7-5 in Game 4 on the road.
With his two relief outings against Colorado, Blanton is now 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in six games (three starts) in the postseason.
With Wolf pitching, the Dodgers carry “over” trends of 5-0-2 overall, 4-0-2 at home and 8-2 against N.L. East foes. Behind Blanton, Philadelphia is on “over” stretches of 4-1-1 overall and 3-1-1 at home, but the under is 9-3-1 in his last 13 at home.
As a team, Los Angeles sports “over” runs of 5-1-1 against the N.L. East, 10-4-1 versus winning teams and 5-2 against right-handed starters. Also, the Phillies carry nothing but “over” streaks, including 16-5-2 overall, 11-3-2 against right-handed starters, 11-2-2 as a favorite, 4-1-1 in the playoffs and 8-3 in the fourth game of a series. Conversely, the under is 12-6-2 in Philadelphia’s last 20 home games.
Finally, the under is 11-5-1 in the last 17 Dodgers-Phillies battles at Citizens Bank Park, but the over is 5-3 in the eight postseason meetings between the squads the last two Octobers (2-1 in Philadelphia.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
DUNKEL INDEX
Denver at San Diego
The Chargers look to build on their 21-5 ATS record in their last 26 games as a home favorite between 3 1/2 and 10 points. San Diego is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Chargers favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-3 1/2)
Game 235-236: Denver at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 132.411; San Diego 137.453
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 5; 48
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-3 1/2); Over
MLB
NY Yankees at LA Angels
Needing a win to get back into the series, the Angels look to build on their 20-8 record in Jered Weaver's last 28 home starts versus teams with a winning record. LA is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-125)
Game 961-962: LA Dodgers at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Wolf) 15.365; Philadelphia (Blanton) 16.382
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-125); Over
Game 963-964: NY Yankees at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.131; LA Angels (Weaver) 17.310
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-125); Under
NHL
Los Angeles at Dallas
The Kings look to take advantage of a Dallas team that is 4-12 in its last 16 home games. Los Angeles is the pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+135)
Game 1-2: San Jose at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.377; NY Rangers 12.926
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-120); Over
Game 3-4: Los Angeles at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.988; Dallas 11.396
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+135); Under
Game 5-6: Vancouver at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.018; Edmonton 12.231
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-120); Under
Rob Vinciletti
Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: Under 44
There is a nice system that applies here tonight. What we want to do is play the under for a home team that is off their bye week and lost on the road by 10 or more points in their last game. This system has cashed 23 of 28 times to the under. The Chargers are 6-20 to the under as a home favorite in this range and had the extra week to fix their defensive woes. The Broncos have had little offense thus far this year,but have played stellar defense. Look for this one to stay under the 44 points.
Karl Garrett
NY Yankees at LA ANGELS
Easy Sunday comp play winner on Baltimore-Minnesota OVER the total. Now 9-5 the last 2 weeks with my comp plays.
Afternoon action from the Big "A", and I say to take the UNDER between the Yankees and Angels.
After Saturday's 13-inning marathon, you get the feeling that the cross-country trek is going to take its toll on both teams, and the fact that this is a 1pm local time start certainly can't help matters either.
All 5 of New York's playoff games this postseason have held UNDER, and 8 of their last 10 playoff games overall have also played LOW.
Los Angeles has been UNDER in 4 of their 5 postseason affairs, and in this series the teams have combined to go LOW in 5 of their last 6 showdowns dating back to the regular season.
Pettitte and Weaver looked tough in their lone postseason starts to date, and I like them to look tough again in this matinee affair.
G-Man riding the UNDER in Game 3 of the ALCS.
4♦ UNDER
Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Yankees at LA ANGELS
Sunday NFL comp play winner on Houston OUTRIGHT at Cincinnati.
47-35-4 is our free play run coming into Monday.
Afternoon baseball in Orange County, and the string of UNDERS will not be broken in today's contest between the Bronx Bombers and the Halos.
The first pair of games in this seven game set have stayed UNDER, as the Yankees have now played UNDER the total in ALL 5 of their playoff games this year, and 8 of their last 10 overall.
Meanwhile, the Angels played 2 of 3 LOW versus the BoSox, and obviously have been UNDER in the first pair in this series.
Both Andy Pettitte, and Jered Weaver are capable of bringing the heat and mowing down the hitters, and we feel that is exactly what is going to happen this afternoon.
Remember, these teams just played on Saturday night, and played 13 innings at that. Now you are asking them to travel 3,000 miles, and play a day game today!?!?!
Expect some sluggish bats.
In closing, 5 of the last 6 series meetings between the clubs have stayed UNDER.
Play the LOW.
2♦ UNDER
Michael Cannon
NY Yankees at LA ANGELS -130
I’m on an 8-1-1 run with my last 10 overall free plays!
Take the Angels for the home win this afternoon over the Yankees.
You have to figure the Angels will come out desperate today being down 0-2 in the series. But they hung tough with the Yankees in the first two games in New York, so they still have to feel good about themselves even though their backs are against the wall.
Jered Weaver will get the start for Los Angeles and he’s 2-3 in his last five starts, but has an impressive 2.56 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP during that span.
The Yankees will counter with Andy Pettitte, who is 2-2 with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in his last five starts.
The Angels are on a 17-7 run in their last 24 home day games, while the Yankees are just 7-12 in their last 19 on the road during the day.
I like the Angels to get back in this series.
Take Los Angeles for the home win.
3♦ LA ANGELS
Bobby Maxwell
NY Yankees +115 at LA ANGELS
Delivered a FREE winner for everyone on Sunday as the Ravens got within the number in Minnesota, and actually should have won the game if not for a missed FG as time expired. Today's comp winner is in the ALCS as I go with the Yankees on the road in Anaheim.
Don't you get the feeling this is one of those magical Yankees' teams that's getting every break and looking destined to win it all. Something we've seen before.
Saturday, the Yankees got a game-tying homer in the 10th inning from Alex Rodriguez and then an error in the 13th inning gave them the victory. Today, expect New York lefty Andy Pettitte (15-8, 4.07 ERA) to be a beast like he was in the first round against the Twins.
Pettitte held the Twins to one run on three hits in 6 1/3 innings of the series-clinching Game 3 4-1 victory in Minnesota. For his career, he is 12-10 against the Angels with a 4.70 ERA. This guy has been in so many big games for the Yankees, nothing fazes him. He’ll come out and be on top of his game today in Southern California.
The Angels have young Jered Weaver (17-8, 3.55) on the hill in this vital game for them. He faced the Yankees three times this season and gave up 11 runs in 19.1 innings. He’s got a 5.88 ERA in seven career starts against New York.
With Pettitte on the hill, the Yankees are 9-3 in his last 12, 18-7 when he pitches on Mondays and 7-3 when he gets 7 days or more off. As a team, the Yankees are on streaks of 46-17 overall, 51-18 after a win, 10-3 as a road ‘dog, 5-1 on Mondays and 4-0 against A.L. West teams.
Play the plus-money in this one and grab Pettitte and the Yankees.
4♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Jeff Benton
NY Yankees at LA ANGELS -120
I’m on a 12-5 run with NFL free plays dating to last season after Sunday's 5♦ winner on the Texans, who won outright over the Bengals.
For Monday, back the Angels in Game 3 of their ALCS against the Yankees.
It goes without saying that this is a must-win game for Los Angeles after losing the first two in the Bronx, including Saturday’s heartbreaking 4-3 defeat in 13 innings. But Mike Scioscia’s club is a veteran, resilient bunch, and I have no doubt that the Halos remain very confident they can win this series. And I share that confidence, because Los Angeles has enjoyed quite a bit of success on its home field this year, going 51-23, including dominating Boston by scores of 5-0 and 4-1 in the first two games of the A.L. Divisional Series.
Also, over the past two years, the Angels have owned the Yankees in Anaheim, winning nine of 13 meetings. That includes four straight wins over New York starter Andy Pettitte. In fact, Los Angeles is 1-5 in six games against Pettitte since July 31, 2008, with the veteran southpaw getting bombed for a total of 39 runs (38 earned) in 33 innings. That’s a 10.36 ERA!
As for Angels starter Jered Weaver, he was nothing short of brilliant in a 4-1 victory over Boston in Game 2 of the ALDS, allowing a run and two hits with seven strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings. Over his last eight starts, Weaver has allowed just 12 earned runs in 51 innings (2.12 ERA). Also, Weaver had two quality starts against the explosive Yankees this season (three runs allowed in each game covering 13 1/3 total innings), and he’s been outstanding at home this year, going 10-3 with a 2.72 ERA in 18 starts, 13 of which the Angels won.
One final note about these two pitchers, with this being a day game: Pettitte was 3-4 with a 5.73 ERA in day games this year; Weaver was 5-1 with a 3.23 ERA under the sun. That’s enough evidence for me to back a desperate-yet-talented Angels squad in a must-win situation at a very reasonable price.
4♦ L.A. ANGELS
Dominic Fazzini
N.Y. Yankees at L.A. ANGELS -125
I delivered an EASY complimentary winner Sunday with my play on the Patriots. I'm not saying today's pick is going to come in as easy as that one -- and how could it after a 59-0 victory? -- but this one is also good to go.
The Angels get a much-needed return home after looking lost in the field and at the plate over the first two games in New York. That's not the team that won the AL West and swept Boston in the first round of the playoffs. But I expect that team to be on the field today.
Angels starter Jered Weaver has been very consistent at home this season, going 9-3 with a 2.90 ERA. And in his playoff start against the Red Sox in Anaheim, he gave up just one run and two hits with seven strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings.
Yankees starter Andy Pettitte was abused in three starts vs. Los Angeles this year, going 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA, including 0-2 with a 7.84 ERA in two outings at Angel Stadium. And L.A. is 4-0 against Pettitte over the past two seasons.
The Angels are a veteran club and realize what today's game means, and manager Mike Scioscia is a calming influence on his players. I expect the Los Angeles to come out focused and give a great effort in an attempt to get back in this series. Take the Angels to win Game 3.
3♦ L.A. ANGELS
EZWINNERS
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
PLAY: UNDER 43.5
The total that Vegas has set on this game looks like it was set based on last years Denver and San Diego teams and not the current versions. This year the Chargers are not quite as explosive on offense as they were last season and their defense has been horrible. The Broncos this season have a very good defense and a grind it out style of offense. I expect this to be a low scoring game. The Denver defense that is allowing less than nine points per game so far this season should do its part to slow down the Chargers offense. The Denver offense should have success moving the ball on the ground against a terrible San Diego run defense while they eat up the clock with ball control. Play this game UNDER the total.
BIG AL
New York at Los Angeles
After two cold and blustery games in the big apple, the Yankees and Angels will travel to Southern California to enjoy a change of scenery not to mention a serious change in climate as well. The first two games of the ALCS went comfortably under the total, and even though the weather was at least partially responsible for that, let's not forget that these are the two teams with the best pitching in the AL. And that trend certainly continues tonight when Andy Pettitte of the Yankees faces Jered Weaver of the Angels. Pettitte continued to add to his long and illustrious postseason resume with another quality start in Game 3 of the ALDS against the Twins, logging 6 1/3 innings of one-run, three-hit ball while walking one and striking out seven as the Yankees swept Minnesota. There haven't been any better starters at home this season than righthander Weaver of the Angels, who was an amazing 9-3 at Anaheim with a 2.90 ERA in 17 starts. Weaver will be looking to continue his home playoff momentum as he was dominating in turning away the Red Sox at Angel Stadium in Game 2 of the ALDS.
PLAY UNDER
JIM FEIST
LOS ANGELES DODGERS / PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
TAKE: LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Dodgers could easily be down 0-3 in this series if not for a fine performance by Vincent Padilla in game two to keep them close. Game three was a wash as the Dodgers took a pounding and trailing 4-0 after the first inning could never recover. Despite the 11 run deluge, the Dodgers arguably have the best overall pitching staff in baseball, but it's really their relief that stands out. The Dodgers have used many starters this year and really have no ace of the staff. But when you play on the Dodgers, if you can be ahead entering the 6th inning, you have possibly the best shot of winning with any club in the majors. With excellent middle relief and a great closer, this team doesn't give up leads late. But the Phillies likely have the best starters in this series. With the likes of Hamels and Lee they are tough to beat. But today's starter, Joe Blanton, has been average at best. With a 4.05 ERA and relatively high WHIP of 1.32, Blanton has been relegated to main relief duty in the playoffs. Today he gets the start and the Dodgers will have a great chance. Last year in game 4 of the NLCS, Blanton allowed the Dodgers three runs in five innings of work. Randy Wolf starts for the Dodgers and had a very solid season with a 11-7 mark and 3.23 ERA. Wolf needs a good start here to get back into the good graces of skipper Joe Torre after his dismal NLDS Game 1 perfomance. Look for both teams to get their runs here, but the Dodgers middle relief and closing will shine in this spot. Take the Dodgers.
Matt Fargo
Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Over
The Dodgers offense has been kept in check for two straight games and they will be able to finally get some offense going tonight. Joe Blanton takes the hill for the Phillies and he has been extremely inconsistent of late. He has allowed five runs or more in two straight starts and three of his last five while posting a 4.46 ERA over that span. He made two appearances in the NLDS against the Rockies, allowing two earned runs in 4.2 innings so even then, he was rather inconsistent. He pitched pretty solid for the most part at home with the exception of his recent performances and while the Dodgers have not done much on offense the last two games, they are hitting a healthy .279 on the road against right-handed pitching. Los Angeles counters with Randy Wolf whose first ever playoff start was not good. He allowed only two earned runs but it came in just 3.2 innings as he gave up six hits and five walks so the damage should have been a lot greater. He had been on a run of quality outings but neither of his last two have fit that category and with the pressure on tonight, we should see the streak continue. We get excellent value in this number and we should see both offenses produce tonight.
Rocketman
Denver @ San Diego
Play: San Diego
Denver is 3-15 ATS last 3 years in all games where the total is between 42 1/2 and 49 points. San Diego is 4-0 ATS last three years against Denver. San Diego is 2-0 SU and ATS last three years at home against Denver winning easily 52-21 and 23-3. Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC West. Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 6. Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Chargers are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Chargers are 21-8-4 ATS in their last 33 vs. AFC West. Chargers are 18-7-3 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU loss. Chargers are 52-22-2 ATS in their last 76 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Chargers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Chargers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Chargers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite. Favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on San Diego tonight!
VEGAS EXPERTS
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers
The Broncos have gone Under in all five games so far this year, but this is a San Diego team that has given them fits. The Chargers have scored 35 or more points in five of the last six meetings and not surprisingly all those games have gone Over. Denver is 6-1 Over after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in back to back games.
Play on: Over