John Ryan
Los Angeles Kings vs. Dallas Stars
Play: Los Angeles Kings
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the LA Kings as they face Dallas set to start at 8:30 EST. This is a very strong angle showing that LA Kings are just 49-67 against the money line, but have MADE 20.1 Units, in road games against excellent power play teams scoring on > 19% of their chances since 1996. Dallas has four solid angles working against them. Note that Dallas is just 3-9 against the money line (-9.7 Units) in home games versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons; 4-15 against the money line (-11.7 Units) after a close win by 1 goal in their previous game over the last 2 seasons; 10-28 against the money line (-20.0 Units) after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons; 10-28 against the money line (-20.0 Units) off a win or tie in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. The Kings look like a team that will contend in the Pacific Division this year despite losing their last 3 games. They won their first 2 games of this 6 game road trip and based on the AiS projections they will end this road trip a solid 3-3. One of the main causes for these losing ways has been a team epidemic of flu and flu like symptoms. This according to published reports is all but behind them and HC Murray has ripped his team in a private meeting and the team themselves have had their own private “get things off the chest” meeting. "We had a talk in (the locker room)," Greene told the Kings' official Web site. "It was a good talk, there were a lot of points brought up and everybody knows what they've got to do in order to stop the bleeding." AiS shows an 85% probability that Dallas will score 2 or fewer goals in this game. Note that the Kings are 50-20 making 46.2 units over the past 3 seasons and 323-78 making 312.8 units since 1996 when they allow 2 or fewer goals in a game. Dallas is 15-71 losing 70.2 units over the past 3 seasons and 114-328 losing a whopping 379.8 units over the past 10 seasons when the score 2 or fewer goals. Take the Kings.
LT Profits
San Jose Sharks @ New York Rangers
This is an interesting cross-sectional matchup Monday night when the San Jose Sharks of the West visit the New York Rangers of the East at Madison Square Garden.
The Rangers may be the hottest team in the NHL, as they have won seven consecutive games since opening the season with a 3-2 loss at Pittsburgh vs. the defending Stanley Cup Champion Penguins. As usual, the Rangers are winning with defense, as they have yet to allow more than three goals in any game this season while surrendering just 1.88 goals per game overall. Henrik Lundqvist bas been his usual solid self in net, posting a 2.15 GAA with a .932 save percentage.
The Sharks are in the midst of a six-game Eastern road trip, and they broke through with a nice 4-1 win on Long Island vs. the Islanders Saturday. Goaltender Evgeni Nabokov stopped 31 of 32 shots in that game, lowering his GAA for the season to 2.63 while raising his save percentage to .932. San Jose is a disappointing 4-4 because besides Joe Thornton, they have not gotten much production from their other big names, most notably Dany Heatly.
We do not expect that to change in New York tonight, so look for a safe Under.
Pick: Sharks/Rangers Under 5.5
Tom Freese
Los Angeles Kings at Dallas Stars
Prediction: Under
Los Angeles is 13-3 UNDER their last 16 road games and they are 7-0 UNDER their last 7 road games vs. an opponent with a home win percentage of less than 40%. The Kings are 7-1 UNDER off a loss by 3 or more goals. Dallas is 16-7-1 UNDER their last 24 home games and they are 8-3 UNDER when playing their third game in four days. The Stars are 10-4-1 UNDER their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and they are 5-1 UNDER at home vs. the Kings. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Stephen Nover
Yankees at Angels
Down 2-0, the Angels have the right motivation, situation and pitching matchup to get back in the series.
Getting away from rainy, frigid Yankee Stadium should do wonders for the warm-weather Angels. They play the Yankees a lot stronger in Angel Stadium where they have defeated New York in 20 of the last 28 meetings.Overall, the Angels have won six of their last seven at home.
The starting pitching matchup is Jered Weaver versus Andy Pettitte. The Angels have won 36 of Weaver's last 52 home starts. Career-wise, Weaver is 28-12 with a 3.23 ERA at Angel Stadium. Weaver held the Red Sox to one run on two hits with seven strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings in defeating them at home in an opening round playoff game.
If you discount the Yankees' performance against rookie Twins pitcher Brian Duensing, New York is averaging 3.5 runs during the playoffs. Weaver has held six of New York's starter to under .228 batting. Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon are a combined 5-for-36 against Weaver.
Pettitte has quite a different history against the Angels. He was 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA against the Angels this season in three starts. Pettitte had just as much trouble with the Angels last year, too, going 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA.
The Yankees might not be able to use closer Mariano Rivera either since he worked Friday and Saturday, going 2 1/3 innings on Saturday.
1♦ ANGELS
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play winner is on the Broncos/Chargers OVER the posted total. My free play record is unmatched over the last 87 picks, hitting 61 times with only 26 setbacks. Kinda surprised the number isn't a little higher, so we'll definitely take the gift. Denver should have no problem scoring against a San Diego defense that allowed 38 points to Pittsburgh last Sunday night. Teams have been able to run over the Chargers in all four games this season... and that includes a Monday Night game vs. Oakland in Week 1. If the Raiders can run against San Diego, there's no doubt the Broncos will be able to run with some success. For the Chargers, they can score with just about any team in the league and I have no doubts Philip Rivers, who has had two weeks to get ready for this game, will find the weaknesses in this Denver defense and should exploit them with some early points in the passing game. As Denver backs off to help in pass coverage, that's when Darren Sproles and LT start to get the running game going. I'm expecting a track meet tonight and the team who holds the ball last might end up getting the win. Play the OVER as your free play of the day.
2♦ Denver-San Diego OVER
Drew Gordon
NY Yankees at LA ANGELS -130
For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Yankees/Angels match up Monday afternoon!
Game sets up nicely for the Halos, who get one of their better arms at home, pitching with a situational edge, against a pitcher they've roughed up already once this season. Needless to say, down 0-2, the Angels hve some digging to do if they want to get out of this hole, but rest-assured, if any team can do it, it's this Halos club.
Jered Weaver was excellent against the Red Sox in the ALDS, tossing 7 1/3 innings of 1-run ball, allowing just 2 hits along the way! No big surprise there, as he's been oustanding at home this season, going 10-3 with a 2.72 ERA at Angels Stadium! That includes a solid win against the Bombers July 11th in this very same venue, allowing 3 earned over 6 innings (striking out 9)! Also of note, situationally Weaver has been a beast in day games, going 5-1 with a 3.23 ERA in that spot this season!
Opposing Weaver is the Yankees veteran southpaw Andy Pettite, who already got whacked by this Angels offense once this season. He allowed 6 runs in 4 1/3 innings in a loss July 11th, and while he was better in his last starts vs the Halos, expecting a solid outing in a day game by Pettite is a stretch. The lefty is just 3-4 with a 5.73 ERA in day games this season!
Finally, we've seen two games dominated by the Yankees pitching staff, but that's about to change in this contest. Before the ALDS got started, plenty of people were discussing the Angels edge in pitching depth, and that's about to become the issue in this critical Game 3 match up. Pettite is a veteran, and he's not only vulnerable, but also VERY inconsistent in day games. In the end, the Halos offense comes to life in their return home, while Weaver does the 2 things he does best: win at home and pitch in day games. Angels roll!
Take the LA Angels behind Weaver over the NY Yankees and Pettite in this MLB match up.
2♦ LA ANGELS
Jr Tips
Dodgers at Phillies
The Dodgers will send Randy Wolf to the mound tonight when they try to even the NL championship series in Game 4 at Citizens Bank Park after Philadelphia won 11-0 Sunday to take a 2-1 series lead behind Cliff Lee, who struck out 10 in eight stellar innings. Ryan Howard drove in three runs, Jayson Werth had a two-run homer and Shane Victorino added a three-run shot in the franchise's most lopsided postseason victory last night. Wolf (0-0, 4.91 ERA) will try to give Los Angeles a longer outing Monday after he made his lone career postseason start in Game 1 of the NL division series against St. Louis when he allowed two runs over 3 2/3 innings on 7th, and hasn't pitched since. The veteran left-hander is 9-7 with a 4.30 ERA in 27 starts at citizens ballpark including 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 17 strikeouts in two as a visitor.He has also fared well against Howard and Werth, who are each 1 for 9 off him. Wolf will try to slow down a Philadelphia lineup that had 11 hits Sunday, and six for extra bases and Ryan Howard has six RBIs in the series and has hit safely in all seven postseason games, batting .385 (10 for 26) with 12 RBIs while the Dodgers have produced a total of two runs and eight hits in the last two games as Manny Ramirez had two of their three hits Sunday. Joe Blanton, who pitched out of the bullpen in the Phillies' division series against Colorado, will make his first start since Oct. 2nd as he went 12-8 with a 4.05 ERA in 31 starts in his first full season in Philadelphia and the right-hander is 1-0 with a 2.88 ERA in four career starts against the Dodgers. He started Game 4 of last year's NLCS against the Dodgers giving up three runs in five innings and not getting a decision in a 7-5 Phillies victory. Manny Ramirez is 14 for 25 (.560) with one homer and eight RBIs against Blanton.Both pitchers have had plent of time off since their last start and should be very sharp. This is a make or break game for both teams and will be played like a chess game with both Managers not waiting to make a move if they see their starters struggling. Wolf is a veteran so he will be very prepared for the Philadelphia hitters tonight and bring his best stuff while the Dodgers will again need big hits from Manny in key situation tonight to get the win. This will be a low scoring game waiting for the team team to make a mistake.
TAKE UNDER 8.5