Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, October 20

Jesse Schule

Lightning vs. Oilers
Play: Over 5½

The Edmonton Oilers are still in search of their first win of the season, and they host one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference at Rexall Place tonight. The Lightning are coming off a 4-2 win at Vancouver on Saturday, and boast a 3-1-1 record. The Oilers are catching Tampa at a good time though, as the Bolts are in the midst of a tough West Coast road trip, playing the first leg of a back to back before they play Calgary tomorrow.

After being shutout on home ice in a loss to Vancouver in their last game, I expect the Oilers to come out flying tonight. Scoring goals isn't normally an issue for this team, as they have plenty of young talented forwards, and one of the league's better power-plays. Poor defense and below average goaltending is what caused them to finish last in the West last season.

Penalty killing is another sore spot for the Oilers, who have surrendered five power play goals so far. They'll want to stay out of the penalty box tonight, facing a Tampa team that is converting on almost 30% of it's man advantage opportunities so far.

These teams have seen the total go over in four of the last five meetings in Edmonton, and there's plenty of reason to expect another high scoring game in Alberta tonight.

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Jim Feist

Lightning vs. Oilers
Play: Over 5½

Edmonton still in search of that first win of 2014-14 season. The Oilers are 0-4-1 with just one point and have allowed 25 goals in five games (5.0 gpg average). Tampa Bay won't be an easy time either tonight for the Oilers. The Lightning are 3-1-1 with seven points and have scored 17 goals in four games. In fact, Tampa is 4th in the NHL in goals scored early in the season and 4th in power play percentage (29.2%). Conversely, the Oilers are 30th in goals allowed and 24th in penalty killing percentage (73.7%). Tampa Bay is 19-6-1 O/U in their last 26 against the Western Conference and 14-6-2 O/U in their last 22 games with one day rest. Meanwhile, Edmonton is 5-1 O/U their last six games 9-4-1 O/U in their last 14 against a team with a winning record. If we can get one or two goals out of Edmonton (no easy task) this one should fly over.

Randall the Handle

Texans (3-3) at Steelers (3-3)

The Steelers are in prime time for the nine millionth time. But unlike the past, Pittsburgh does not draw as much public money as it used to. That could work to our advantage here as the price feels a bit short. We’re not anxious to get behind a Houston team whose wins have come against squads that are a combined 4-13 on the season. Pittsburgh returns home after playing four of five away and this will be the first of three consecutive home dates, with the Texans being the softest of the trio of visitors (Indy and Baltimore). Look for the Steelers to get after turnover-prone QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, leading their way to a win. TAKING: STEELERS –3

Chip Chirimbes

Texans at Steelers
Play: Steelers

Houston who won only two games all of last season are at 3-3 right now as is the Steelers. Both clubs rely on the running game as LeVeon Bell of Pittsburgh is second in the NFL rushing and Adrian Foster of the Texans is third both behind DeMarco Murray. Defense for these teams has been disappointing as Houston even with A.J. Watt (Jadeveon Clowney is expected to play) is ranked 27th and the Steelers have been giving up the big play all season. The Texans have had problems throwing the ball with six interceptions in the last four games and Ben Roethlisberger had a season-low 64.4 rating his last time out against Cleveland. Pittsburgh is 25-2 at home on Monday nights and 8-0 at Heinz Field.

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SPORTS WAGERS

PITTSBURGH -3 over Houston

This is an interesting game in that it plays right into public perception and it’s something we’re going to look to take advantage of. Let us take you back 10 or 11 days ago to when the Texans hosted the Colts on Thursday night. The entire betting world was on the Colts that night and they were feeling pretty smug when Indy rolled a 24 in the first quarter to lead 24-0 after one. From that point on, the Texans started to rally hard. Things got very dicey in the third and fourth quarters before the Colts hung on for a narrow 5-point win and cover. After the first quarter, Houston outscored the Colts 28-9 and that’s the last time the Texans played. That sticks in the minds of bettors and now Houston takes a significant drop in class when facing these Steelers.

Meanwhile, the Steelers got whacked, 31-10 last week by a Cleveland team that just lost to Jacksonville. Pittsburgh also lost to Tampa Bay the week after the Bucs lost by 100 points to Atlanta. In between those two games, Pittsburgh had trouble with Jacksonville, winning by a score of 17-9. Now for the first time in a long time, Pittsburgh has little appeal. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again that the best time to buy is when everyone is selling and that applies here.

Indy took its foot of the gas against Houston last week and once you lose momentum in any sport or game, it’s very difficult to get it back. The Texans are nothing. They have a nothing QB and a nothing defense. Houston had an extremely easy schedule in the first month by playing Washington, Oakland, the Giants and Buffalo. That’s four teams that can’t move forward, yet the Texans gave up chunks of yards to all of them. Houston is getting far too much credit for back-to-back close losses to Dallas and Indy and we’re not buying that either. For Dallas, that game against Houston was “sandwiched” between New Orleans and Seattle so the “close game” angle holds no weight. Now the Texans and their 27th ranked rushing defense will go into Pittsburgh to play a team that has racked up 824 yards on the ground in six weeks. When you can’t stop the run, and the Texans cannot, it sets up play action and ultimately big yardage. Ben Roethlisberger figures to have a big game with that setup working in his favor. Furthermore, the Steelers are in a very foul mood after getting overwhelmed by the Brownies. Lastly, don’t expect the Texans to get any calls from the zebras, as the NFL is a lot more “intere$ting” when the Steelers are in the picture as oppose to out of it and the home side gets most of the calls in prime time anyway. If you take the Texans here, you’ll be asking yourself “why” afterward.

Pass NHL

Jimmy Boyd

Tampa Bay Lightning -162

This is a complete mismatch on the ice Monday. Tampa Bay comes in fresh off a 5-2 win over Vancouver Saturday to improve to 3-1-1 on the season. Edmonton on the other hand has lost each of their first 5 games and 4 of the 5 have come by 2 or more goals. The Lightning have outscored the opposition 17-9 early on in 2014, while the Oilers have been outscored 24-11. The fact that Edmonton is playing at home isn't a big advantage, as the Oilers have consistently finished with one of the worst home records over the last 6 seasons.

Edmonton is 12-43 in their last 55 games against a team with a winning record and just 3-10 in their last 13 home games versus a team who has won more than 60% of their road games. Tampa Bay is 5-1 in their last 6 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. These trends combine to form a 78% (58-16) system in favor of the Lightning.

Mike O'Connor

Houston (+3) 25 PITTSBURGH 23

After starting the season 3-1 the Texans have cooled off recently losing their last two. Last Thursday night they staged a comeback after trailing by 24 points against the Colts that fell short after Ryan Fitzpatrick and Andre Johnson lost fumbles in the last five minutes. They have had extra time this week to recover and prepare for a Steelers team that will be fired up as they attempt to rebound from their 10-31 loss in Cleveland last week. Both teams should be able to move the ball well in this game on the ground while I expect the Texans to be able to pass the ball on a Steelers defense that has not been very good pressuring the quarterback, averaging just 1.5 sacks per game to teams that allow 2.2. Meanwhile, Houston should be able to pressure Roethlisberger as the Steelers have allowed 3 sacks per game to teams that average 2.2, especially if Jadeveon Clowney returns –although it looks like he is now doubtful. However, Roethlisberger is adept at extending plays and has the offensive personnel to generate yards in the air against a Texans pass defense that is allowing 272 yards at 6.7 yps.

Houston qualifies in 72-25-1 situation and a 50-10 subset and my model favors them here by about 1.5 points. This is a tough spot for the Texans, however, as the Steelers rebound well in these types of games while Houston is in a divisional sandwich having faced the Colts last week at home in primetime and travel to Tennessee next week. It’s a pass for me with a strong lean based on the numbers to the Texans.

OC Dooley

Oilers +140

This is a law of averages wager as host Edmonton (0-4-1) has not begun a season winless in the initial six games in FRANCHISE HISTORY. With six consecutive seasons getting Top-10 draft picks each year Edmonton certainly has stockpiled high-rated talent but need to finally break through on the scoreboard as a confidence builder. The odds of tonight’s host breaking through are high since Tampa LOST top defenseman Victor Hedman to an upper-body injury last time on the ice. Hedman was tied among all hockey defensemen in goals (3) and overall points (7) so one cannot underestimate the severity of his absence in this particular spot. In Tampa’s lone visit to Edmonton one year ago they lost a 5-3 contest where Hedman (broken leg) was also sidelined. Last time on the ice Edmonton was very competitive in a 2-0 defeat versus geographical rival Vancouver which sets up a solid trend. In the past two years when off a “divisional” setback in front of the HOME fans Edmonton (8-3 record) has responded in a positive manner