Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, October 21

Jim Feist

NHL (1) SAN JOSE SHARKS VS (2) DETROIT RED WINGS

Take: (1) SAN JOSE SHARKS

I like taking teams in the NHL that I think will score first and jump out to leads. That's just what we get here tonight with the San Jose Sharks. Though the Detroit Red Wings are in the rare position of home dog, it's for a good reason. The Sharks lead the NHL in first period goals, scoring 14 goals in their eight games. Conversely, they are allowing just five goals in the first period this season. San Jose also leads all teams in 2nd period scoring, tallying 13 goals in eight games. And their balanced scoring even carries over to the third period where they have 12 goals, good for 2nd in the NHL. It's not often you find a team that is balancing their scoring so well over all three periods and at the top of the league in addition. It's not surprising the Sharks lead the Pacific Division of the Western Conference with 15 points and a 7-0-1 record. The Red Wings are always competitive, out to another good start with a 6-3 mark this season. I like hot teams and when they are such prolific scoring machines as the Sharks have been, it's even better. Your free play for Monday is on the San Jose Sharks.

Big Al McMordie

Our complimentary selection for Monday, Oct 21 is:

Columbus and Pittsburgh 'over' 5.5 goals.

69% win rate in premium Hockey picks this year.

Jimmy Boyd

Pittsburgh Penguins -168

The Pittsburgh Penguins will try to pick up their fifth consecutive win when they play host to the Colorado Avalanche. Sidney Crosby leads the league in scoring with 17 points, proving to be a tough player to defend. The stellar play from Crosby has led to a 7-1 start to the season for the Penguins.

Dating back to last season the Avalanche are 9-23 in their last 32 road games. The Penguins are 4-0 in their last four games against Central division teams, and 17-4 in their last 21 games against a team winning 60% or more of their games. In the last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams the home team owns a 5-2 record.

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Kings -218

The Kings are 2-1 favorite here tonight, so we will just use them as a free play. The Kings should get the job done as they are on a 42-12 runs at home and are of a pair of solid wins. They take on The Calgary Flames tonight. Calgary is off back to back road losses and overall they have lost 15 of 19 on the road off a road loss and have lost all 3 Divisional games this season. With the LA. Kings have won 4 straight we will back them to take another here tonight.

Red Dog Sports

Colorado Avalanche +153

Both Colorado and Pittsburgh are 7-1 this year but the Avalanche have won 4 games on the road. Pittsburgh is the home favorite but I like the chances of the road underdog especially if you can get them in the neighborhood of +145 to +153.

EZWINNERS

Minnesota Vikings +3.5

New York is a train wreck as they are 0-6 for the first time since 1976 with quarterback Eli Manning turning the ball over at an alarming rate and a defense that is not stopping anyone. The Giants points differential is worse than every team in the NFL except for Jacksonville. New York is at a -16 turnover ratio coming into this game and the Giants are thirteen turnovers worse than the second worst team in the NFC team for turnover differential which is Green Bay at -3. Eli has thrown fifteen picks and has two fumbles and a lot of that is due to poor offensive line play that has given up sixteen sacks in six games. The offensive line is also the reason the Giants can't run the ball and have to throw so much. On the defensive side of the ball New York is allowing 34.8 points per game thus far this season. This is due to an old defense that has been hit by a ton of injuries and I think they will have their hands full in this game. Minnesota will have Josh Freeman under center for this game. While I don't think Freeman is the savior for this team, I do expect him to be a spark. I also look for Adrian Peterson to bounce back with a strong game after last week's tragic distractions. Minnesota will keep that playbook simple for Freeman this week and that means a heavy dose of Peterson against a Giants defense that is 26th in the league against the run. The Giants should not be favored by more than a field goal against anyone. Take the points.

Carlos Salazar

Giants vs. Vikings
Play: Over 47

Both teams will look to get on the scoreboard early. The Giants have been scoring points and giving up too many. Look for the Vikings to get AP going on the ground and in turn get their passing game going as a result.

Mike O'Connor

NY GIANTS (-3.5) 29 Minnesota 21

The addition of QB Josh Freeman has made this matchup a bit more interesting as the Vikings have some good pieces but have really suffered from poor QB play. I’m not sure how much better the QB play will be as Freeman had not played well this year but I expect that the change of scenery will be a good thing for him. The Vikings must have seen all they needed to make their decision in a short time as they decided on Freeman as the starter after being with the team for less than two weeks. His numbers with Tampa were not dissimilar to the Vikings QB’s so far this year so I’m less than convinced that he will be able to step in here on short notice, without developed rapport with his offensive line and WR’s and be able to perform at anything above an average level. As a result, I would expect the Vikings to lean on Adrian Peterson a bit more here against the Giants but New York has defended the run pretty well this year allowing 4.2 ypr versus teams that average 4.6 ypr. Another matchup of interest is the Vikings pass defense which has been bad (allowing 308 yards at 6.9 yps to teams that gain 254 yards at 6.3 yps) versus the Giants pass offense which has been about average but certainly has talent and the potential to play well here, especially with injuries in the Vikings secondary. I don’t have any situations that apply to this game but my model sides with the Giants here and I like the fact that they have had a mini-bye to regroup after playing the Bears last Thursday night. I like the Giants minus the points.

Jeff Scott Sports

2 UNIT PLAY

Giants/ Minnesota Under 47: 92% of the public on the OVER, two defenses more generous then a grandmother at Christmas yet i will go with the under here. Why you ask? Well The OVER really looks way to obvious at just 47. It should be a bit higher, especially with two defenses that are allowing 30+ ppg on the season. On one side we have a Minnesota offense that I look to be conservative. Josh Freeman completed just 45.7% of his passes at Tampa Bay and that was with better receivers than he will have in this game. Also he is still learning the offense, so i do look for the Vikings to run Petersen allot in this one, which will eat plenty of clock. On the other side we have a Giants squad that has been hit hard buy the turnover bug, especially from Eli, who has 15 INTs on the year. The Giants must take a more conservative approach to his one if they look to get their first win of the year. The Giants must also look to be more balanced on offense as well. They average 67.8 ypg on the ground, but should get the ground game going in this one vs the 29th ranked run defense of the Vikings. That should take pressure off of Manning and eat clock as well. A couple of teams in need of wins, in what should be a conservative game plan for both, should lead to a lower scoring game than expected

Dave Cokin

New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Minnesota Vikings +3.5

The NFL is amazing. It’s truly the only league where you could have a pair of really bad teams matching up and it still will get plenty of attention. That’s a real tribute to the ability of this league to market itself brilliantly.

It’s also evidence that a whole lotta folks like to bet on these games. Take away the ability to get a wager down on tonight’s game and I can guarantee that the ratings would plummet.

Anyway, on to the game itself. The Vikings and Giants each have terrible records, and in both cases, it’s legitimate. The Giants basically are doing a few things at an average level, and a bunch more at much worse than that. The Vikings have been just plain lousy across the board.

The most interesting aspect of tonight’s game is the change at QB for Minnesota. Unhappy and unproductive with the Bucs, Josh Freeman makes his debut with the Vikings tonight. I can’t say how much of their scheme he has down pat at this point, but I’m sure he’s already figured out how to hand the ball off to Adrian Peterson.

I’ve never been a huge Freeman guy. I don’t think he’s terrible, but I never looked at him wearing the future superstar tag. I would put Freeman into the serviceable category. He wasn’t even that in Tampa, and there are those who are now way down on Freeman for basically bailing on his former team. I don’t really care much about that, but the fact that his arrival has evidently been met with approval from his new teammates is at least somewhat significant.

If the Vikings players are more confident with Freeman calling the signals rather than the other two guys on their roster, there’s a real chance we could see a temporary spike with this team. That might only last a couple of games until the regression to the norm takes place, but this is all about playing short term win situations that result in long term profits when they apply.

I sure have no problem trying to beat the Giants. They would undoubtedly love to get a win here, but the reality is they’re an awful football team right now. Comb through all the metrics, and they’re ahead of the historically pathetic Jaguars, but not much else. The Giants aren’t bad at everything, but they’re also not good at anything. That’s a generalization with no specifics, but it’s also accurate.

There has been some money on the Giants throughout the week. Not a betting landslide by any means, but the number has gone up. That’s not meaningful to me, as I don’t care what anyone else is playing. But it has pushed the number through three, which is obviously significant as far as the potential result is concerned.

The bottom line here is that I have the Vikings as the slightly better team, and I like the QB change from a mental standpoint. The Giants aren’t going to lose them all, but I will bet against them breaking through here. The Vikings plus the points are the play.

Dave Price

Vikings/Giants Under 48

The Vikings have finished over the total in each of their five games, and the Giants have finished over the number in four of their six contests, including their last two. With this in mind, oddsmakers knew the overs-loving public would be on the over, and that is the case. As a result, the books have set the bar a little too high in order to improve their chances of this one coming in under the total. You want to play the under on home teams when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points if they have allowed 25 points or more in two straight games and are matched up against an opponent that allowed 30 points or more in its last game. That's because doing so has produced a 64-35 (65%) mark since 1983. We've seen just 41.8 total points scored on average in this situation. NFL teams headed up by coach Tom Coughlin are 39-19 under all-time when they check in off two or more consecutive overs. We have seen just 39.6 total points scored on average in this situation. Take the under.

Doug Upstone

Colorado Avalanche +140

A pair of 7-1 teams hook up in Pittsburgh tonight. The Avalanche have only given up 12 goals this season, 1.5 per game. Expect a very competitive game here and the value is on Colorado at plus 140.

Bruce Marshall

Colorado Avalanche vs Pittsburgh Penguins
Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins

We can't knock Colorado too much, as the Avs have been the surprise storyline of the league with their 7-1-0 start and unbeaten mark in four road games. But we suspect the fun ends tonight in Pittsburgh against a Penguins side that has won its first five at home in the Consol Energy Center, its best home start since the strike-shortened 1995 season. Penguins star Sidney Crosby is off to another flying start with 17 points already and at least two points in each of the last four games, while GK Marc-Andre Fleury has been airtight, with a 7-0- mark and 1.94 GAA.

Charlie Sports

Colorado Avalanche+155

The 7-1-0-0 Colorado Avalanche of the NHL Western Conference Central divsion will take on the 7-1-0-0 Pittsburgh Penguins of the Eastern Conference Metropolitan division in 2013 NHL action. Colorado is 0-4 in the last 4 meetings between the teams. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Pittsburgh. The Avalanche are 0-4 their last 4 NHL games played on Monday's.