Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, October 24

David Chan

Rangers @ Jets
Pick: Over 5.5

I bet value where I see it and expect this total to sneak above the posted number.

Winnipeg tallied five straight goals in a 15-minute span of the first and second frames after it fell behind by 2-goals on Saturday vs. Carolina; the Jets ended up winning 5-3.

“We were tired of scoring just one goal and giving up goals on the penalty kill,” defenseman Mark Stuart said. “We showed that we can score and can come back on teams. That’s good going forward, but it’s one game. It’s a good start, but in this league, if you want to be successful you’ve got to be consistent.”

New York will be looking for a little "revenge" here as Atlanta was 3-0-1 during last season series.

The Rangers will also be looking to atone for a 2-0 defeat at Edmonton on Saturday night in which they went 0 for 5 on the powerplay.

“It was a terrible game by us,” forward Brandon Dubinsky said. “In order to win hockey games we need to win those battles and we need to have the puck. We didn’t do any of those things tonight. It’s disappointing because we came in here with a great opportunity and we didn’t execute at all.”

Starting goaltender Henrik Lundqvist left the third period in that game with an apparent foot injury; if he's unable to go, that means that Martin Biron will be between the pipes (note that Biron gave up a season-high five goals in a loss to the Thrashers last year).

In my humble opinion, all signs point to a high-scoring affair!

Jim Feist

Cardinals / Rangers
Pick: Over

After the two low scoring games in St Louis, we were treated to a slug-fest or Albert Puljols-home-run-derby in game 3 in Arlington, Tx. The Cardinals tied a World Series record in game three with their 16 runs. Puljos also became just the third man in World Series history to power three home runs in one World Series game, joining the likes of Babe Ruth and Reggie Jackson. The move from Busch Stadium to Arlington did three things. First, in St Louis the weather was damp and balls have trouble going far in damp weather. Add to that a more pitcher-friend park in St Louis along with pitcher's hitting for themselves and it's understandable why we had the low scoring games. Now we come to Arlington, a much more friend hitters park, we get the DH back and the air will most likely be much drier. I fully expect all the games in Texas to have a lot more lively ball and higher scoring games. I'm going to take tonight's game OVER, despite the pitching matchups.

SPORTS WAGERS

JACKSONVILLE +10 over Baltimore

The betting public is getting rich on these Sunday and Monday night mismatches and it simply cannot last. This certainly looks like another one of those but there are more than a few red flags. First, the line opened at 8½ has been bet up all day yesterday and well into today. Secondly, the Ravens have won their past three games by 30, 17 and 15 points respectively, thus creating a higher line on an already inflated line. It’s not easy to pull the trigger on the Jaguars. After all, most of these losers are at least entertaining at what they do but the Jags just kind of bore their way into submissiveness. Jacksonville needs a map to the end zone and as a result, this total sits in a rarely seen 30’s these days. That indicates a low-scoring, conservative affair and one that can have the home dog hanging around just enough to stay within the liberal points being offered. Ravens are too high and they may just show up here in body only, as more important fish are on the horizon. Big caution flag to Raven backers. Play: Jacksonville +10 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

WINNIPEG +111 over N.Y. Rangers

The schedule maker wasn’t too kind to the Rangers in starting this season. New York opened with two games in Europe before returning near home with a game on Long Island. We’ve often mentioned the “dreaded three-game trip” to Western Canada in the past and with Winnipeg back in the picture, another team can be added to that itinerary. The Rangers have played the first three of such a trip with stops in Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton and will now wrap it up tonight here. That’s seven games in total, all on the road and covering thousands of miles. The Rangers looked very sluggish in Edmonton on Saturday night and while they may have a little more energy tonight, one has to believe they’re looking forward to getting home with two days off before playing their first game at MSG on Thursday against the Maple Leafs. The Jets lost their home opener to the Canadiens but have won two in a row at the MTS Center since. This is going to be a tough place for visitors all season long because of jubilant sell-out crowds that amp their guys up. The Jets are looking a lot better these days. They netted five against Carolina on Saturday night and the defensive pairings that consist of Dustin Byfuglien -Toby Enstrom, Mark Stuart - Zach Bogosian and Randy Jones - Johnny Oduya is a solid group. Good spot for the Jets to keep their home win streak going. Play: Winnipeg +111 (Risking 2 units).

PHILADELPHIA -½ -108 over Toronto

The Maple Leafs have grabbed 11 out of a possible 14 points thus far. The Flyers have grabbed nine out of a possible 14 points. Why then, have the books made the Flyers such a big favorite? You can fool some of the people some of the time but you can’t fool the men that get paid handsomely to set the betting line. The Leafs five wins have come against the Canadiens twice, the Senators, Winnipeg and Calgary. None are above .500 and the combined record of that quartet is 8 wins and 21 losses. They needed OT to beat the Jets and Canadiens while offensively-challenged Ottawa and Montreal scored a combined 9 goals against this Toronto defense. Tonight, Jonas Gustavsson gets the start. The netminder has been put into impossible situations with weak Toronto teams the past two years. In five home games to open the year against weak opposition, Ron Wilson does not play Gustavsson once. Wilson finally gives the poor guy his first start in Boston and Gustavsson promptly gets ripped apart. He was set up to fail once again and he did just that. James Reimer was injured in the game against Montreal on Saturday. Now Wilson is forced to use the fragile Gustavsson once again against a Flyers team that figures to be in a foul mood after consecutive losses to Washington and St. Louis. Incidentally, Philly was the better team in both games and they’ve been the stronger club in each of its seven games thus far. Make no mistake, the Flyers are an elite team with a solid offence while their defense may be the deepest and most talented in the league. The Maple Leafs were exposed in Boston and they’ll be exposed here too. Play: Philadelphia -½ -108 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

Pass MLB

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Cardinals/Rangers UNDER 8

With the exception of one game, this series has been all about pitching and defense. Expect this trend to continue tonight. We saw only 4 total runs scored in Game 4, and we've seen 5 total runs or less in 3 of the 4 games in this series. With aces Carpenter and Wilson on the hill, who dueled in a 3-2 St. Louis win in Game 1, we should see another low-scoring game. Wilson is carrying a 3.24 ERA through 38 starts this season. Carpenter has a 3.46 ERA through 38 starts. The Rangers are now 6-1 under in their last 7 World Series game. They're even 4-1 under in their last 5 World Series games at home. The under is also 6-1 in the Rangers' last 7 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Bet the under tonight.

Wunderdog

Florida Panthers vs. Montreal Canadiens
Play: Montreal Canadiens

The Montreal Canadiens are off to a poor start and have yet to win in four attempts at home. The Florida Panthers have done a good job to open the season, but have been a breakeven club thus far on the road. The Panthers dropped consecutive 3-0 decisions, went out and made a trade with the Canucks, and won their last game 4-2. It may take time for the chemistry to gel on this club, especially on the road, where the Panthers haven't exactly been reaping the harvest as a dog. They are a dismal 34-73 in their last 107 in this role, including a 2-11 mark in their last 13 as a road dog. Montreal is 10-3-1 in their last 14 vs. the Southeast, so I look for Montreal to get their first home win tonight.

Black Widow

1* Cardinals/Rangers OVER 8

The ball simply flies better in the heat, and we believe Texas and St. Louis will have no problem combining for at least 9 runs in Game 5 Monday. Chris Carpenter and C.J. Wilson squared off in Game 1, and the Cardinals won by a 3-2 final in the cold weather in St. Louis. The Cardinals have a pitcher-friendly park, especially when the temperatures are as low as they are right now in the Midwest. The Rangers have one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league, and a big part of that is the perfect weather they play in night in and night out. Carpenter is 8-6 with a 3.77 ERA on the road this season, which is much worse than his home numbers. C.J. Wilson is 8-3 with a 3.94 ERA at home, which is much worse than his road numbers. The Rangers are a better hitting team at home, and the Cardinals are a better hitting team on the road. Texas is hitting .294 and scoring 6.2 runs/game at home this season, while the Cardinals are hitting .278 and scoring 5.3 runs/game on the road. The OVER is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games following a loss. The OVER is 9-2 in Cardinals last 11 road games, and the OVER is 33-16-2 in Rangers last 51 home games. Take the OVER 8 runs here.

Dave Price

1 Unit Ravens/Jaguars Under 40

Baltimore is 6-0 Under all-time under coach Harbaugh following 2 consecutive covers as a favorite. Also, the Jags are 5-1 Under this season and 5-0 Under in their last 5 Monday Night games. The Under is also 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Jacksonville. We'll make a small play on the Under.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit Ravens/Jaguars OVER 38.5

Tonight's situation sets up well for the Over. Consider that plays Over on home teams following 5 or more consecutive losses, provided they are matched up against an opponent off 2 or more consecutive wins, are 57-26 since 1983. We've seen an average number of 40.1 in this situation and the teams it applies to have combined to score an average of 45.5 points. This rare situation is 4-1 the last 3 seasons. The Over is 12-5-1 in the last 18 meetings between these teams. Take the Over.

Jack Jones

Cardinals/Rangers OVER 8

I am siding with the OVER in Game 5 of the World Series between the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers. I believe odds makers are putting too much stock into their Game 1 performance, which was a pitcher's duel between scheduled Game 5 starters C.J. Wilson and Chris Carpenter.

The Cardinals won the opener 3-2. The thing you have to remember is that St. Louis is already a pitcher's park, and that's before you even factor in the weather. It was a very cold night in Game 1 and the ball simply wasn't flying off the bats. There were at least three balls hit in that game that would have been home runs in Texas, but instead came up just short on the warning track.

I believe both Carpenter and Wilson will struggle to get outs tonight in a hitter's park in Arlington. Texas is batting .294 and scoring 6.2 runs/game at home this season. Their opponents are averaging 5.0 runs/game, so their average combined score at home is 11.2 runs/game.

St. Louis has been much better at the plate on the road than they have been at home. The Cardinals are hitting at a .278 clip while scoring 5.3 runs/game away from St. Louis. While I don't expect there to be 23 combined runs like in Game 3, I do expect this one to easily go OVER the number by the time both Wilson and Carpenter depart.

Carpenter sports a sub-par 3.77 ERA on the road this season. Wilson has posted a 3.94 ERA at home home, which is much higher than his sub-3.00 ERA on the road. The OVER is 17-6-3 in Wilson's last 26 home starts. The OVER is 17-8-2 in Wilson's last 27 starts with a total set of 7.0-8.5. The OVER is 10-4 in Carpenter's last 14 road starts with a total set of 7.0-8.5.

The OVER is 51-25-1 in Cardinals last 77 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5, and the OVER is 9-2 in Cardinals last 11 road games overall. The OVER is 33-16-2 in Rangers last 51 home games overall, and the OVER is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 home games with a total set of 7.0-8.5. All signs point to a slugfest tonight folks. Bet the OVER in Game 5.

Rob Vinciletti

Maple Leafs vs. Flyers
Play: Under 5½

The Flyers enter off a pair of back to b...ack home losses in which they were inept in their own end allowing 9 goals combined. Toronto comes in off a nice road dog win in Montreal. In the series 6 of the last 8 have played under and Toronto has gone under in 9 of the last 11 off 3+ games that went over. The Flyers have played under in 8 of the last 10 off 3 or more overs. Look for a low scoring game here as they Flyers play a little more defense in what looks like a low scoring affair.

Steve Janus

Cardinals/Rangers UNDER 8

The over has been a popular bet after watching these two teams combine for 23 runs in game 3, but the four runs in game 4 is more of what I expect to see in game 5 tonight. Chris Carpenter and C.J. Wilson both pitched great in the Cardinals 3-2 game 1 win. While the ball definitely jumps off the bat a lot more in Texas than it does in St Louis, I'll take my chances with two aces in a big time game where every single run could make the difference. The UNDER is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 World Series home games.

Carpenter went six innings in game 1, allowing just two runs on five hits, while Wilson gave up three runs on four hits in just under six innings. The UNDER is 5-1-1 in Carpenters last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record, and 8-1 in Rangers last 9 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record. BET THE UNDER!

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Philadelphia/ Toronto Over 5.5: The Leafs enter this game really struggling atb the defensive end as they have allowed 10 goals and 71 shots in their last 2 games. The Leafs are 26th in the league in scoring defense, allowing 3.3 gpg and they are 23rd in penalty kills (77.4%). The Flyers come in having allowed 3.6 gpg in their last 5 games, while they have scored 3.6 gpg over the same span. Philly has also struggled in penalty kills, allowing 21.1%, which is 19th in the league. Overall on Offense the Flyers are 3rd in scoring (3.3 gpg) and 5th in PP (25.7%), while Toronto comes in ranked 4th in scoring (3.3 gpg) and 15th in the PP (16.7%). Two teams that can score vs two teams that haven up a lot of late has me seeing at least 7 goals in this one.

2 UNIT PLAY

Montreal/ Florida Over 5: These teams have not played a game where more than 5 games were scored since 2009, but that should change tonight. Florida has really struggled this year to of late as they have put in just 4 goals in their last 3 games but tonight they will be facing a Montreal team that has really struggled in the net of late, as they come in having allowed 4.2 gpg in their last 5 overall and 4.5 gpg in their last 4 games at home. The Panthers have allowed 2.6 gpg on the year and they are 24th in penalty kills (76.2%), while they are 4th in PP at 26.4%. Neither team is playing well around the net these days and that should make it easy for at least 6 goals to be scored in this one.

1 UNIT PLAY

PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+145) Over Toronto: The Flyers are 7-2 in their last 9 games vs the Leafs and in those 7 wins 6 of them were by 2 goals or more. The Flyers have struggled lately at home, but they should explode tonight vs a Leafs team that has allowed 10 goals in their 2 road games this year. Philly 5-2 here.

Eddie Keen

Florida at Montreal
Play: Under

Florida vs. Montreal - The Books have this total set at an average 5 goal number but look for this one to slide right under the total. Both teams are coming off high scoring games that went over the total but before that both teams had back to back low scoring games that landed right under the number. These teams have played each of six times over the last three seasons and five of those six matchups went under the total. Three of those six matchups took place in Montreal where all three games went under the number! Florida is 21-9 UNDER after a win by two goals or more and also 37-22 UNDER coming off a win. Montreal is 32-18 UNDER after allowing four goals or more and they are 52-32 UNDER in all home games over the last two seasons. Look for a low scoring matchup!

NHL Predictions

Rangers / Jets Under 5.5

The Rangers are in Winnipeg to finish off their 7 game road trip to start the season. The Rangers haven't had much success on the trip, going 2-2-2 and are averaging just 2 goals per game with just 12 on the season. Winnipeg has started to see some success, winning 2 of their last 4 games and getting a point in one of those loses. The Jets are still only averaging 2.3 goals per game this year though. Both teams are struggling on the powerplay, with the Rangers only converting 4.3% of their opportunities, while the Jets are a little more respectable at 12.9%. Two backups will be in net tonight, but I don't think that makes a difference here for the UNDER. Martin Biron was 8-6 last season and had a 2.13 GAA and .923 SV%. Chris Mason has actually been the better of the two Winnipeg goalies, with a 2.67 GAA and .906 SV%. After coming in on Saturday and getting the victory Mason can potentially get the coaching staff on his side with a big performance tonight. The Rangers have had only one game go over 5.5 goals this season, with the following totals in games played this season: 2, 5, 4, 6, 3, and 5. Also note that the Rangers have been held to les than 20 shots in three of their six games to start the season. Atlanta has held opponents to 22, 29, and 24 shots against when playing at home. Note that the UNDER is 34-14-4 in the Rangers last 51 road games, and 20-6-4 in their last 30 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 9-4 in the Jets last 13 games as an underdog, and 12-4-1 in their last 17 games as a home underdog. The UNDER is also 10-4 in these two teams last 14 meetings. The Rangers are at the end of a long road trip, which included 2 games played in Europe, and I'm not sure they will have much in the gas tank for tonight's game. We have Biron in season debut, who wants to continue from his success last season, and Mason who wants to win the number 1 spot in between the pipes for Winnipeg. There is value here on the UNDER.