Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, October 25,2010

VEGAS EXPERTS

NY Giants at Dallas Cowboys

The G-Men have gone Over in six straight division games, including both last season with the Cowboys that saw 55 and 64 points scored. New York has a bad secondary that the Cowboys receivers can exploit. They've allowed 38 and 29 points vs. Indianapolis and Tennessee already this season while Dallas has allowed 24 points or more three times.

Play on: Over

Ultimate Sport Picks

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Dallas Cowboys -3

We like the Cowboys in this match up. We realize that Dallas is 1-4 and not 4-1, where Jerry Jones would like them to be. America's Team has underacheived to unimagineable levels this season. We have picked against them several times this year. But this week, we think they are a very dangerous team to play. We see Dallas having a bounce back game this week. Added to it, the Cowboys will be playing in a sold out megaplex they call home. The Cowboys have a lot of athletes and will be on Monday Night on Prime Time where athletes play their best. This will be a great game and the Giants should be able to stay in it, but Dallas will get its much needed win. So we think Dallas, at home, only giving three points, is the smart choice here.

LT Profits

Flyers / Blue Jackets Under 5½

The Philadelphia Flyers and Columbus Blue Jackets are both having difficulties scoring goals this season, and we look for that pattern to continue for at least one more game on Monday night.

The bookmakers have installed a total of 5½ for this contest, with the betting odds on the ‘under’ set at a flat -110.

The ‘under’ is 5-2 in all Blue Jackets games this year, as the team is averaging just 2.60 goals per game. At least they have been consistent, in a bad way of course, as they have scored either two or three goals in all seven games this season. That said, they still have a winning record of 4-3, as they have allowed two goals or less inn four of their seven games and three goals in another one.

Backup goaltender Mathieu Garon is the scheduled starter for the Jackets tonight, but that is not really a bad thing. Garon earned the backup job with a very solid training camp, and he played very well in his only start so far this season, stopping 23 of 25 shots in a 3-2 road win at Minnesota. Besides, Garon first entered the league in the 2003-04 season, so it is not as if he has not been through these wars before and he has always been a serviceable backup.

Now the Flyers did break through for a 5-2 home win vs. Toronto on Saturday, but that marked just the second time in seven games they have exceeded three goals, with the ‘under’ going 4-3, and they have scored two goals or less four times. Moreover, this is just their third road game of the year and they have scored a grand total of four goals in their first two road contests. Brian Boucher, with his 2.33 GAA, is expected to get the start in net for Philadelphia tonight.

Finally, the ‘under’ is 3-1 in the last four head-to-head meetings, and it looks like more of the same here.

JIM FEIST

KINGS / WILD
PLAY: OVER

The LA Kings are fresh off their win over the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday, 6-4. The bad news is that LA is without last year's Norris Trophy finalist, Drew Doughty on defense. The Kings are off to a strong start to the season, going 5-2 and tied for first in the Pacific Division with the Dallas Stars. Ryan Smyth and Dustin Brown are the offensive leaders of this club with Jonathan Quick holding down the net-minder job. Quick has been solid between the pipes with a 1.97 goals against average and .929 save percentage. Minnesota (3-3, 7pts) is fourth in the Northwest Division. The Wild are first in the NHL in power play percentage with a 38.7% mark on the man advantage. Center Matt Cullen leads the team with nine points. Niklas Backstrom is the goalie and has a 2.32 goals against average. Both these teams can score and that's what I'm looking for here on Monday. I see this contest as an easy OVER.

SPORTS WAGERS

DALLAS -3 over N.Y. Giants

The Jaguars may want to watch this one to see why they won’t be getting this time slot in the foreseeable future. Despite Dallas’ woeful record, it still has as much talent and firepower as any NFC rival. Giants stock is up while Cowboys is way down and that offers us a discounted price. Play: Dallas –3 (No bets).

Phoenix +1.30 over MONTREAL

The Phoenix Coyotes overachieved last season and were the “good feel” story of the year. The dynamics have changed this season in that they no longer have that “us against the world” mentality but that doesn’t mean they’re not hungry. The Coyotes have dropped three of its last four after opening the season by splitting a pair of games overseas versus the Bruins. They’ve been at home for more than a week in which they’re playing to an empty arena and you can be damn sure they’ll welcome a three-game trip to Montreal, Ottawa and Detroit to play some hockey in a hockey atmosphere. It’s hard to get motivated playing at home where the Harlem Globetrotters attract more fans. Phoenix will now play in one of hockey’s hotbeds and it’s a rare opportunity for them. In fact, the Coyotes have not played here since ’08 and this is the second game they’ll play in Montreal in the past five years. This is still a very hard-working club that is surely not less talented than the Habs. Montreal has won three of its last four games, all against rivals, Ottawa (twice) and Buffalo. They lost to the Devils, another East rival and have now played four games in succession against teams they get up for. Furthermore, the Canadiens have back-to-back games on deck against another rival, the NY Islanders, and this is most definitely a game we can catch them flat in. In order for the Habs to win games they have to be at its absolute best because talent wise, they are among the least talented in the game. Coyotes will be jacked up, the Canadiens will not and thus, we find some a great spot for this guest to come in here and emerge victorious. Play: Phoenix +1.30 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles +1.09 over MINNESOTA

This one is pretty much a no-brainer in that the Kings taking back a tag against the Wild is about as good as it gets. Win or lose here we’re going with the best of it because if these teams met 10 times this season the Kings would very likely win six or seven. Minnesota has won two of its last three against the Oilers and an undermanned Canuck club but in its rematch against Vancouver on Friday they were thumped 5-1. Minnesota is perhaps the most unappealing favorite in the league. They’re offensively challenged and its defense is nowhere near what we’re accustomed to seeing from them. Two of its three wins this season have come against the Oilers and frankly this team is not going to beat too many top echelon teams this season. The Kings are 5-2 and they haven’t even come close to peaking yet. However, they’ve still won four of its last five games and that’s unlikely to end here against this vastly inferior host. The Kings are loaded offensively and all they need is a half decent game from Jonathan Quick and chances are strong they’ll win here too. Play: Los Angeles +1.09 (Risking 2 units).

Rocketman

Philadelphia @ Columbus
Play: Philadelphia -120

Philadelphia is 5-1-3 SU overall vs Columbus since 1996. Flyers are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Flyers are 6-2 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Flyers are 14-5 in their last 19 games as a favorite. Flyers are 5-2 in their last 7 Monday games. Flyers are 11-5 in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest. Blue Jackets are 33-67-5 in their last 105 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game. Blue Jackets are 27-61-2 in their last 90 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation. Blue Jackets are 46-105-6 in their last 157 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. Blue Jackets are 2-5 in their last 7 games following a win. Blue Jackets are 16-43 in their last 59 games as an underdog. Blue Jackets are 8-23 in their last 31 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Blue Jackets are 1-5 in their last 6 home games. Blue Jackets are 2-12 in their last 14 games as a home underdog. Blue Jackets are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. Atlantic. Blue Jackets are 0-6 in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. We'll recommend a small play on Philadelphia tonight!

John Ryan

Philadelphia Flyers at Columbus Blue Jackets
Prediction: Philadelphia Flyers

5* graded play on Philadelphia as they take on Columbus in NHL action set to start at 7 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Flyers will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 89-58 making 61% winners since 2005. Play against any team against the money line off a close win by one goal over a division rival and is a tired team playing their 3rd game in four days. Columbus is just 3-15 against the money line (-12.0 Units) against good possession teams averaging 3+ more shots on goal than opponents over the last two seasons. Columbus is just 12-31 against the money line (-20.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive ?unders? over the last two seasons. Take the Flyers.

Wunderdog

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Play: Philadelphia Flyers

Columbus is just 1-2 at home and playing to sparse crowds. They set a record on Wednesday, but not the kind of record you want. They had a franchise-worst 9,800 people at the arena. That's not much of a home ice advantage. Philadelphia has had a disappointing start to the season, but they are simply the better team. When facing good possession teams (those averaging 3+ more shots on goal than their opponents), the Blue Jackets are just 3-15 dating back to last season. The road team gets it done tonight.

Gregg Price

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: New York Giants +3

Just an opinion on the Giants tonight. We bounced back nicely in week 7 and there is no reason to force anything tonight. At first we were thinking Dallas, but after careful thought we like the Giants. I have heard so many things from Dallas has to win, Dallas is going to play better, Dallas can still win this division, Dallas has to much talent, blah blah blah. A lot easier said than done. I'm sure the Giants are taking all this in. Giants play smart football, Dallas doesn't. Until I see something different, how do you not fade the most overrated team in all of sports?