Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, October 27

Jim Feist

Wild at Rangers
Pick: Over

Minnesota brings a 4-2 record into tonight's contest. The Wild have scored 19 goals in six games and are a perfect 3-0 at home. However, the club isn't quite as good on the road, posting a 1-2 mark. The Rangers are 4-4 with eight points, but have not been very good defensively, allowing 26 goals in eight games (3.25 gaa). The Wild have the league's top ranked defense. The problem has been the offense. Minnesota has scored three goals or fewer in the last four games. They did break out though on Saturday, scoring seven goals against the Lightning. The issue here to start the week is that the Wild have to play back-to-back, tonight against the Rangers and Tuesday against Boston. That means the league's top goaltender in Darcy Keumper may not start both games with Niklas Backstrom getting only his second start of the season. And that start could come tonight against a weaker Rangers club. Another issue is that Wild defensemen Christian Folin and Keith Ballard are both battling the flu. If we get Backstrom in goal here tonight coupled with the flu bug hitting the Wild defense, this one could get OVER easily. The Wild are a great defensive club, but back-to-back is tough on any team.

Art Aronson

Minnesota Wild vs. NY Rangers
Play: Minnesota Wild +105

Minnesota is coming off an epic offensive performance and I believe will carry that momentum over in the Big Apple. The Wild destroyed Tampa Bay 7-2 on Saturday and with a game at Boston on Tuesday, the visitors will be leaving everything they have on the ice tonight to at the very least secure a 1-1 split. Note that Wild goaltender Darcy Kuemper leads the NHL with three shutouts and a minuscle 0.81 GAA. Also note that Minnesota has killed off 18 of 19 penalties, which is bad news for a Rangers team which has converted on just 2 of 22 chances so far this season. The Rags are coming off a listless 3-1 defeat at Montreal on Saturday. I think it’s important to note that this is a spot that the Rangers have struggled in for bettors for quite some time, they’re just 14-15 (-3.2 units) in their last 29 after a loss by 2 goals or more and a poor 32-43 (-15 units) the last two seasons vs. clubs with winning records. And conversely, this is a spot that the Wild have excelled in, 15-11 (+5.6 units) after a win by 2 goals or more and 20-12 (+7.6 units) in their last 32 following a non-conference contest. I think we’re getting good value on the under-rated visitors in this spot.

Art Aronson's Featured Package

Jimmy Boyd

Montreal Canadiens -132

The Canadiens will return to the road after sweeping their 4-game homestand to improve to an Eastern Conference-best 7-1 on the season. Montreal has gone 3-1 on the road this season and I look for them to come out motivated against a team they haven't had a whole lot of success against in previous years. The Oilers are 12-4-3 in the series since 2000. However, the Canadiens did win at Edmonton last year and are the much stronger team in 2014. Montreal is playing with all kinds of confidence and it's too early in the season for them to letdown on the road off a big homestand.

The Canadiens are 17-8 in their last 25 after playing 2 or more consecutive games at home and 13-3 in their last 16 against a team with a losing record. Edmonton is 13-38 in their last 51 against a team that's winning more than 60% of their games, 1-8 in their last 9 home games off a home win where they scored 4 or more goals and 0-11 in their last 11 after a game where 9 or more total goals were scored.

SPORTS WAGERS

Washington @ DALLAS

We're passing on this game for several reasons. For one, the Redskins are not playable. They were tooth and nails to get by the dumpster-fire Titans last week at home and they have been blown out by the Giants. They also lost to Houston 17-6. Washington's two wins this year have come against Jacksonville and Tennessee, who are a combined 3-13. The 'Skins are also foolishly using Colt McCoy over Kirk Cousins for no apparent reason when in fact, Cousins has proven he can play at this level while McCoy has not. McCoy came in last week to help win the home game against the Titans that shouldn't have been that close anyway and while McCoy completed 11 of 12 for 128 yards and one score, that was really a 70-yard touchdown pass to Pierre Garcon and then completions for just 58 yards. Washington hasn't scored more than 20 points in over a month covering four straight games and the only time they broke that barrier this year was against Philly and Jacksonville. Man, is this team bad.

So, why not Dallas? Well, if you are a regular reader of this section, then you know we are seldom in favor of spotting this type of weight and especially so when a teams' stock is soaring. To say the Cowboys are on a roll is a huge understatement. For the first time in about 20 years, people outside of the fan base are reminded of the glory years of Troy Aikman, Michael Irvin and Emmitt Smith. The rushing effort is better than Emmitt ever was. The defense has no gimmicky name because no one knows who is on it but they are playing in direct opposition to what happened just last year. With this home game against the Skins and Cardinals up next, also at home, the Cowboys are not finished with their winning streak just yet but in playing them tonight, you will be paying a premium to do so. That's something we can't get on board with so again, we'll just have to sit it out. To say the Cowboys are on a roll is a huge understatement. For the first time in about 20 years, people outside of the fan base are reminded of the glory years of Aikman, Irvin and Smith. The rushing effort is better than Emmitt ever was. The defense has no gimmicky name because no one knows who is on it but they are playing in direct opposition to what happened just last year. With road games against the Skins and Cardinals up next, the Cowboys are not finished with their winning streak.

SPORTS WAGERS

Minnesota -½ +175 over N.Y. RANGERS

Regulation only. The Rangers got very hot at the right time last year and rode that hot streak all the way to the Cup finals, where the L.A. Kings made them look like a second rate club. This year the Rangers are a .500 team with a 4-4 overall record and a 2-2 record at MSG and they're likely going to hover around that mark the entire year. The Rangers have won three of their last four but one victory came against the winless 'Canes, one came against the Sharkies in San Jose's third road game in four nights and the other came against the Devils in which the Rangers were trailing 3-1 with 10 minutes left in the third. The Rangers have lost three games by three goals to the Maple Leafs, Islanders and Jackets. They are not difficult to beat. The Rangers will win when they catch the opposition a little flat or in a difficult scheduling spot but that does not apply here.

The Wild have played just six games with three of those starting late in Colorado, Anaheim and L.A. Two other games occurred against Arizona and Tampa Bay, which are not exactly marquee match-ups. In other words, the market has not really seen just how good this edition of the Wild is and we're going to take advantage of that. First, Minnesota is hungrier than a pack of hyenas. They got a small taste of success last year with one series win over Colorado and despite losing to Chicago in the second round, they were the better team. Now they're serious contenders and every player on that team can feel it. When they went into L.A. in their third game of the season and lost 2-1, they absolutely dominated the Kings, out-shooting them 41-16. In the Wilds' first two games of the year, they outscored Colorado 8-0 and they now have three shutouts in six games. They also defeated the Bolts 7-2. This team is built like the Kings. Minnesota is loaded with perhaps the best group of two-way forwards in the league. They are as good behind the blue-line as any team in the league, which makes it very difficult to sustain pressure in their end for extended periods of time. The Wild do not get to play at MSG often and in fact, they have only played here twice since 2009. MSG is one of those buildings that every player in the league looks forward to playing at and the Wild figure to respond. New York should not be favored. If these two teams played a seven-game series starting right here, Minnesota would do to the Rangers what Los Angeles did to them in the finals last year only the Wild would put a worse beating on them because New York is in way worse form now than they were then. We don't need OT here and so we'll play the Wild on the 3-way line to win it in regulation and we'll step it up and play it for 3 units.

EDMONTON +129 over Montreal

OT included. Luck is a factor in every sport. There are several games every week that result in the team that played worse winning the game (See Philadelphia at Arizona in the NFL yesterday). Luck can hold up for weeks and even months sometimes, as we see with very average pitchers in MLB winning games consistently for an entire season. Eventually, however, luck evens out over time and we mention this because the Canadiens 7-1 record has been a result of nothing but pure luck. The Habs, if all things were equal, should be 2-6 or at best 3-4. Against Washington, they were dominated for long stretches throughout before scoring the equalizer very late in the third and winning it in OT. The next game, they rallied from three down in the third to defeat Philly. Against Boston, they won 6-4 when Tuukka Rask had a rare bad game. When you have Rask in net and you score four times, you are going to win 98% of the time. Against Colorado in the very next game, Montreal won 3-2 and scored two goals by two different players who were coming out of the box when the puck hit their sticks and sent them on a breakaway. For most teams, that happens once a year, for Montreal it happened twice in one game. It doesn't stop there. The Red Wings had a 1-0 lead over Montreal in the third when Detroit scored to make it 2-0 with about 7 minutes remaining but the zebras didn't like the goal and waved it off. Called it goaltender interference when in fact it was not. Naturally Montreal scored with 3 minutes left and won in OT. We're not suggesting that the Habs are a poor team. When you have great goaltending you always have a chance and Montreal has a significant edge in net almost every time they play. But they are not a 7-1 team, not even close and so a correction in their W/L record is forthcoming and we'll put that to the test here.

Tony George

Redskins vs. Cowboys
Play: Under 49½

After the weekend I had, I am in no way putting out a premium play today laying near 10 in the NFL, so that usually means a win. I got crushed all weekend and the NFL was no different, and Sunday was rough on more than a few people. However if I would have had a good weekend I would put this out. Sometimes it is what you DON'T do that counts. Premium Plays will wait, but here is my take on MNF.

With numerous teams capping 50 points this weekend, you look at this dominant Dallas offense and wonder why they cannot tonight. If they stick to what has got them to this point, that means they will run first and pass second, and that eats clock. Washington's defense is injury riddled and ranked 25th in the NFL in points allowed and they have allowed more points than anyone in the division to date.

Dallas shit hammered them last year in Dallas 31-16 and Dallas was not near as sharp as they are this year. Washington themselves cannot run the ball, ranked 22nd in the NFL at 99 ypg and tonight Colt McCoy gets the start for the first time as a Redskin as the Kirk Cousins experiment failed miserably, no thanks to his offensive line. Bear in mind McCoy is a 3rd team backup for a reason folks.

The Dallas defense is better solely because the offense is re-vamped and running the ball and controlling the clock, and taking the pressure off QB Romo and giving the defense long lapses before returning to the field and they are fresh. Since Washington will struggle against the run, I see more domination from the Dallas OL tonight, and ample opportunity for Dallas to score, especially at home here tonight.

I do not see Washington scoring a ton here, and I see a clock eating, in your face, down your throat run attack with a few big play action plays to Dez Bryant and company and Witten thrown in on seam routes when the run is working. Washington is a work in progress for first year coach Jay Gruden, and Dallas trying to really step up and win this division with NY and Philly falling from grace.

Harry Bondi

Redskins / Cowboys Over 48.5

Both teams have been trending "over" recently with the Cowboys cashing over tickets in four of their last five games and the Skins in four of their last six. Look for another high-scoring affair here. The Dallas running game has been so good this year it has also helped opened up the passing game. Washington, meanwhile, has struggled to run the ball all season, so even with Colt McCoy at QB they will look to pass-first tonight, which will help extend the game and most likely lead to some costly turnovers, which are always a friend to the over.

OC Dooley

Rangers -110

At the bottom of this analysis segment details of an unusual event the occurred inside New York’s famed Madison Square Garden exactly one year ago at this time on a Monday. The newly minted captain of the Rangers Ryan McDonagh has special interest in tonight’s opponent partly because his deep-rooted hockey family is from the state of Minnesota. It was way back in March of 2011 when Matt Cooke “then” in a Pittsburgh uniform leveled McDonagh with a nasty elbow to the head which eventually led to a lengthy 17 game suspension. Cooke is now employed by Minnesota and before game’s end could be a “marked man”. For those that follow the NHL the league’s worst team is Buffalo who has yet to light the lamp on the power play. There is one other contingent that has whiffed with the man-advantage as the Minnesota Wild are 0-for-20 and their offense has been held to “three or less” goals FOUR times in the most recent five outings. That is bad news for tonight’s visitor since Rick Nash of the Rangers has tallied more goals (8) than any other player in the entire Eastern Conference. There is also injury news to report as a pair of Minnesota defensemen are OUT tonight due to a battle with the FLU. It was exactly a year ago at this time when the Rangers finally ended a two-month journey away from Madison Square Garden which at the time was undergoing a billion-dollar facelift and their travel schedule in 2014 has eased substantially

Jimmy Moore

Washington +9

I know the Redskins have looked pretty bad but this is a prime spot for a letdown from Dallas. They are off of 2 huge wins and they have been a terrible home favorite over the past few years. Washington has covered 6 of their last 7 trips to Dallas, look for a spirited effort from the Redskins here.