Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, October 28

Mike O'ConnorFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle (-11) 31 St. Louis 14FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Seahawks come out of a mini-bye after beating the Cardinals in Arizona 34-22 last Thursday night and now travel to play another division rival in St. Louis. They did not have much trouble in beating the Cardinals as they led 31-13 entering the 4th quarter and overall held Arizona to just 234 yards at 3.3 yppl. Adjusted season numbers have the Seahawks near the top in every category assessed as they possess a well balanced team in all phases of the game. They should be prepared to take on a poor Rams team that is on the opposite end of the spectrum with terrible adjusted numbers. They should get worse this week as the Rams lost QB Sam Bradford to a season ending ACL injury last week and will now start backup Kellen Clemens, who is not good, against an excellent pass rushing/pass defense team. In addition, there is talk that Seattle may get a boost with the return of WR Percy Harvin. Matchups in this game all strongly favor the Seahawks and my model loves Seattle here as well, adjusted for QB change. Seattle also qualifies in a 118-56-6 situation and that is enough for me to like the Seahawks minus the points.

Randall The HandleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Seahawks (5-1) at Rams (3-4)FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rams are garbage, but for whatever reason, they seem to play their best against their superior division opponents. St. Louis won this game last year, prior to losing by just seven in Seattle. The Rams return home after splitting a pair of road games. Last Sunday’s game proved costly as St. Louis lost starting QB Sam Bradford. Or was it? Bradford has struggled all season long and Kellen Clemens will take over. Clemens is a lifetime backup, but he understands the position and the coaching staff should come up with a safe game plan. Seattle is much more timid when travelling and the big number is a turn off. TAKING: RAMS +10½

Jimmy Boyd

Rams/Seahawks Under 42½

In the last six head to head meetings between these teams the under has a 5-1 record. St Louis is coming off a 15 point performance against Carolina last week, so you can imagine how much trouble they will have finding the endzone against this stout Seahawks defense. Seattle has allowed just 16.6 points per game this year, and with the Rams offense struggling there is a good chance they can improve on that average in this game.

Seattle is a run biased team, and since they are double-digit favorites it is likely they will have a two score lead going into the fourth quarter. Whether they are up nine points, or even more, I expect to see them running clock killing drives by keeping the ball in bounds and pounding Marshawn Lynch between the tackles. The Rams will have to rely on Kellen Clemens to lead the offense, and it seems likely he will struggle against such an outstanding defense. I don't think Seattle will score enough points to send this game over the total on their own, making the under an easy call.

Art Aronson

Dallas Stars -125

Interestingly, this does set up as a "revenge" game for the Stars as they lost 3-2 in Buffalo in these teams lone meeting of the strike-shortened 2012 season. Dallas will be extra motivated here after a listless 2-1 shootout setback in Winnipeg on Saturday (note that it wasn't for a lack of trying as the Stars would direct 36 shots on net). With a game in Montreal on Tuesday, tonight's contest takes on added importance for Dallas as well. The Sabres are coming off a 3-2 loss at Tampa Bay on Saturday and have struggled in all facets of the game so far this year, which doesn't bode well for this focused Stars side. A great "situation". A great price. Consider a second look at Dallas in this one.

Doug Upstone

Pittsburgh Penguins -144

The Penguins are on a rare 3 game skid, but have played some tough competition of late. They truly are one of the NHL's elite and look for them to bounce back on the road against a very mediocre Hurricane team. Play the Pens and a small play on the puckline (+233) is advised as well.

Ben Burns

Chicago vs. Minnesota
Pick: Under

These teams just faced each other at Chicago on Saturday night. Minnesota won a "wild" affair, earning a 5-3 victory. While I successfully backed the Wild two nights ago, with tonight's rematch being played at Minnesota, I'm expecting a considerably lower-scoring affair.

With an O/U line of five, there's always a fairly high chance at receiving a "push." However, in this case, we're now getting an attractive price on the "under," which is providing us with fair value.

Prior to Saturday's outburst, the Wild had seen six straight games stay below the total. They scored just 10 total goals in those six games, allowing only 11. In fact, before Chicago netted three against them, the Wild had limited six of their previous eight opponents to two or fewer goals.

Note that the "under" is 9-2-5 the past couple of seasons, when the Wild were off a win by more than a goal, 7-3-3 when they were on a winning streak of at least three games.

After giving up five goals last time out and six goals in their previous game, the Hawks figure to be highly motivated to improve defensively. Note that prior to Thursday's 6-5 loss vs. the Lightning, the champs had seen eight straight games dip below the total.

Also, note that the "under" is 18-9 the past couple of seasons, when the Hawks were off a game in which they allowed four or more goals.

Throw in the fact that the "under" is 4-0-1 in Chicago's last five visits here, all five games finishing with five or fewer combined goals, and this one has the potential for another tight-chceking low-scoring affair. Consider the Under.

Bruce Marshall

Pittsburgh vs. Carolina
Pick: Pittsburgh -1.5

Pittsburgh has not been converting shot attempts into goals in its last few games, but that dynamic might be ready to change tonight in Raleigh, where we expect the Penguins to snap their three-game losing streak. Certainly the Hurricanes are a preferred foe, as Pittsburgh is 6-1-0 in its last seven games against Carolina even with Sidney Crosby missing four of those matchups. But Crosby is available and the Hurricanes are is not expected to have No. 1 goaltender Cam Ward available for the next three to four weeks due to a lower-body injury. Backup Anton Khudobin, has missed the past five games also because of an ailing lower body., so two goalies who started the season in the minors, Justin Peters and Mike Murphy, likely dress tonight for Carolina.

Sean Murphy

Chicago vs. Minnesota
Pick: Under

These two were involved in a wild 5-3 affair in favor of the Wild on Saturday night in Chicago, but I expect the rematch to prove much lower-scoring on Monday in Minnesota.

I always like to say that familiarity generally lends itself to lower-scoring results, not only in hockey, but in all professional sports. That should hold true here as the 'Hawks and Wild meet for the 10th time since the start of last season (remember, they clashed in the opening round of the 2013 playoffs). Of those nine games, only four surpassed five total goals.

Chicago has now allowed a whopping 10 goals in its last two games - certainly uncharacteristic of the defending Stanley Cup champs. While this is a team known for its offense, it also boasts terrific goaltending and solid defensive play - in fact, the Blackhawks are one of the league's best shot-blocking teams. Despite allowing a wave of goals, the 'Hawks have continued to minimize scoring chances, allowing 25 shots on goal or less in each of their last four games.

The Wild have been a defensive force at home this season, particularly of late, as they've allowed a grand total of three goals in their last four games at Xcel Energy Center. In four meetings with Chicago here at home last season (including the playoffs), they gave up only eight goals in total.

While both teams have been rolling along nicely from an offensive standpoint, I expect Monday's game to be a tight-checking affair from start to finish. Neither team is all that comfortable getting involved in the type of game we saw on Saturday night in Chicago. I expect a different story to unfold between these two division rivals on Monday.

Rob Vinciletti

NY Rangers +100

The Ranger return home win the momentum of big road dog win at Detroit on Saturday as they started the season with the first 9 games on the road. Tonight they take on the Montreal Canadiens in the home opener. Montreal is 0-6 after a game where they were a home dog, 6-12 on the road when the total is 5 or less. They come in off a loss and are just 6-21 off a loss by 2 or more goals. The Rangers are 29-13 at home when the total is 5 or less. Look for the Rangers to roll as a live dog here in NHL Action.

Derek Frye

Seattle Seahawks -11½

The knock on the Seahawks coming into this year has been that they are a different team away from the 12th man. This year that hasn't been the case as Seattle is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road.

The St. Louis Rams come into this one reeling after seeing their two game winning streak snapped. They also lost Sam Bradford for the season last week to a torn ACL. St. Louis has really struggled to find a ground game this year as they are only averaging 70ypg on the ground. A recipe for disaster when your back up QB completes only 51% of his passes for his career. There is a very good reason the Rams called Brett Favre, it's because Kellen Clemons is awful. The Rams will seriously struggle to score points in this game.

Seattle is coming off a 12 point road win in Arizona where the game was never really in doubt. Russell Wilson comes into this one red hot after throwing 3td's in his last game. Look for that trend to continue as the St. Louis defensive unit ranks last in the league allowing an astonishing 68% of passes to be completed. Percy Harvin may see some action in this one as well, giving the Seattle offense another weapon, Percy returned to practice on the 21st.

Look for Seattle to roll in this one easily as neither the running game or the aerial attack will do well for the Rams. I just don't see them scoring enough points to keep it close.

Jim Feist

Boston at St. Louis
Pick: Under

The World Series is all tied a 2-2 and now it falls to the St Louis Ace Adam Wainwright to keep the Cardinals chances alive. The last thing the Cards can afford is going back to Boston down 3-2. Wainwright looks to also snap a 2-game post season losing streak. The big righthander lost to the Dodgers 3-0 and then the opening game of the World Series at Boston, 8-1. Jon Lester will oppose here for the Sox. Lester has had two straight stellar post season efforts, winning at Detroit 4-3 and then holding the Cardinals to no runs over 7 2/3 innings in game 1 of the WS. You can really make a case for both teams here, but I'm going to stick with the UNDER tonight. Both these pitchers have been great and neither should give up much. This one likely will be decided by the bullpens.

SPORTS WAGERS

Washington +142 over VANCOUVER

Regulation only. Nobody gave the Canucks much of a chance in their final game of a seven-game trip in St. Louis on Friday night after the team lost a couple more key players the previous night in New Jersey. Friday’s game was the Canucks third road game in four days, playing a rested and very tough Blue Notes’ squad. The Canucks played a near flawless road game by limiting scoring chances and frustrating the Blues all night long. Vancouver came away with a 3-2 OT win and won the final three games of said trip, all in OT and they also took the Penguins to OT (but lost) earlier in the trip. The Canucks actually look better right now than they have in a couple of years but we’re wagering against the situation here. That situation sees the Canucks returning home from a satisfying and long seven-gamer. They weren’t supposed to win in St. Louis but they did and now they’re expected to win tonight. That’s a different mindset against a Caps team they haven’t played since 2011. Additionally, the Canucks have the Red Wings on deck Wednesday followed by the Maple Leafs on Saturday. The price and situation dictates this play.

Dallas -½ +133 over BUFFALO

Regulation only. This is such an interesting game because the story-line yesterday would’ve been Lindy Ruff’s return to Buffalo but that has changed with the trade that sent Tomas Vanek to the Islanders in exchange for Matt Moulson. We’re not sure how the Sabres will respond to losing Vanek while Moulson must be feeling a little bit shocked. We can’t imagine for a second that Moulson is anything but hugely disappointed, as he leaves a team on the rise and he also departs from one of the best lines in the NHL alongside John Tavaras. Moulson takes 10 steps back to play for a team that is cleaning house but don’t count on his heart being in it, at least not in the beginning. Moulson is a UFA next season so the chances of him remaining in Buffalo are slim unless the Sabres open the vault. An unhappy and/or shocked Moulson plus a team losing its leader does not equal wins right now for a team that is winless at home.

Dallas players know how important this game is to Lindy Ruff and they figure to respond. For a team loaded with as much talent as the Stars, they have been extremely inconsistent in the early going but they are capable of defeating anyone. In fact, they are the only team to beat the Sharks this season and an effort like that one is precisely the type of effort they are likely to bring to this game in support of Ruff. Should that come to pass, Dallas should roll over these Sabres and that’s the way we’re playing it.

Passing NFL& MLB

Dave Cokin

Seattle at St. Louis
Play: Seattle

Here we go again, with a very popular road favorite taking on a home underdog that the masses are going to fire against with little hesitation. So you already know where I’m going with this, right?

Wrong! I think Joe Public has it right tonight with the Seahawks, and to me anything less than -14 is playable. I’ll head straight to the stats and metrics for the explanation.

The Rams are a bad football team. This is an opinion I expressed prior the start of the season on the show I do each day. My best Under play on the win totals this season was the Rams. I thought this team was getting substantially overrated off a misleading record last season, and figured them for no more than six wins this season. They’ve actually already won three games, so that prediction is sure not a cinch just yet, but I still like my chances.

The Rams figure to get worse now without Sam Bradford at QB. Not that Bradford is anything special, but he’s a clear cut above journeyman backup Kellen Clemens. There’s no running game to pick up the slack. If the offense looks mediocre, the defense is even worse. The metrics don’t lie, and the Rams are one of the weakest stop units in the NFL.

As for the Seahawks, they really haven’t gotten the offense cranked up on a consistent basis, but the potential for explosiveness is certainly there. The Seattle defense has been terrific, giving up very few points and actually ranking at the very top of the metric charts.

Clearly, the oddsmakers have input all this into the betting line, and we’re not getting off cheap by any means tonight. But aside from all the data, we have the actual matchup of a strictly backup QB now having to face what might well be the best defense in the league. It’s almost a given to me that the Seahawks will force at least a couple of turnovers tonight. Unless the Rams respond in kind, the probability is extra possessions for what is the much better team. I understand that turnovers are normally random events, but I don’t see that as the case here.

The scheduling also fits the favorite tonight. Seattle has the extra time off following the Thursday win at Arizona, and all they have on deck is a gimme against Tampa Bay. The Rams got battered last week against that physical Carolina team and is now starting a career 62.2 QBR signal caller. Lotsa luck if you’re a Rams fan. I’ll side with the squares and will back the Seahawks tonight.

Joe Gavazzi

St. Louis +11.5

This a very contrary MNF Divison home dog opinion on a St. Louis team who will start replacement QB Clemens for departed starter QB Bradford (knee). Clemens will be leading the St. Louis team who has been badly beaten at the point of attack this season. To date, St. Louis has been outrushed 126/4.2 to 71/3.2. Much the opposite is true of a Seahawk team who is dominating the line of scrimmage. Seattle is running an average of 34 times/game in outrushing the opposition 154/4.5 to 90/3.7. The Seahawks clearly have the superior defense allowing just 17 PPG, 281 yards and 4.8 YPP (yards per play) among the best in the NFL. The Seahawks have turned around their road chalk mark standing 3-1 ATS in that role this season including last week's 34-22 Thursday night win at Arizona. That extra rest should be helpful as Arizona proved on Sunday. In fact, teams who played the previous Thursday night are now 10-3 ATS the following week. The lack of a running game for St. Louis has impeded their success in their once profitable underdog role. In fact, the Rams are now just 1-4 ATS as underdog including a 35-11 loss on this field to Division rival San Francisco. In that game, against a team comparable to Seattle they were only a 3 point home dog. Thus, it is the opinion of this bureau that at the current price point of this game, the value lies with a St. Louis team who actually beat Seattle on this field last season and lost to the Seahawks by only 7 points in Seattle. Opinion only on the MNF Divisional home dog.