Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, October 3

BIG AL

Yankees @ Tigers
PICK: Under 7.5

Two of the best starters in baseball go at it tonight in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the Majors, and that combination should mean that runs will be a bit hard to come by. In fact, the Tigers haven't exactly been scoring machines when righthander Justin Verlander takes the mound lately against the Yankees, as in his last five starts against New York (not including the Friday night rain-suspended affair) the Tigers have only scored a total of 15 runs, or an average of just three per outing. The Yankees hitters also haven't exactly been going nuts for lefthander CC Sabathia lately either, as in his last three starts (again, not counting the Friday suspension) the Yanks have only scored eight runs. The under is 6-0-2 in the last eight meetings of these two teams in Detroit. Take the 'under.'

Jim Feist

Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Texas Rangers

Rangers looked shell-shocked after getting pummeled in game one by the Rays. They came out flat in game 2 before finally seeing their bats awaken and come back for the win and to even the series. In these short series you have to steal on on the road and today is the best shot for the Rangers. Colby Lewis will get the start with a 14-10 record this season and 4.40 ERA. Lewis is a playoff veteran after winning both games two and six last year in the ALDS against the Yankees. Lewis has battled inconsistencies this season, mainly do to a hip injury. However, Lewis has said he's healthy and ready to go here in game three. If the Rangers lose game three, then that could be it for them as Matt Harrison is slated for game four. David Price will start for the Rays. Price had a up and down year with a 12-13 record but decent 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Price had a rough outing last time out against the Yankees, allowing five earned runs in four innings. In fact, Price didn't get a win in September with a 4.01 ERA for the month. Rangers know this is the game they need and I believe we'll see their best effort here. Doesn't hurt they are a small dog. I'm taking the Rangers in Game 3.

John Ryan

Game: Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Texas Rangers

7* graded play on Texas as they take on the Rays in game 3 of the ALDS set to start at 5:35 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 42-17 making 30.7 units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play on road teams in the month of October having won 12 or more of their last 15 games. Tampa Bay coming off a loss places them in a poor situation as well. This system has gone 39-24, but has made 27.2 units per one unit wagered since 1997. The average play has been a +137 DOG! Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 in the division series after a loss. It has produced a 13-4 mark for 76% winners making 12.2 units over the past five seasons. Texas is 50-19 (+21.8 Units) against the money line facing an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of this season; 34-12 (+22.4 Units) against the money line facing an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better this season; 19-9 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season.

EZWINNERS

Texas Rangers +124

The Rangers starting pitcher Colby Lewis has had success against Tampa Bay in the past. Lewis went five shutout innings against the Rays in the ALDS last year and he owns a career 3-0 mark against Tampa Bay. I expect the Texas bats to give Lewis plenty of support against the Rays ace David Price who has not piched like the ace of the staff this season. Price struggled down the stretch of the season as he allowed seven runs in his last ten innings of work. Price has also not had much success against Texas in his career as he is 0-3 with an ERA of 5.67 in six career starts against the Rangers. The road team has dominated this series the last two years and I look for that to continue in this game. Play on Texas.

SPORTS WAGERS

TAMPA BAY –10 over Indianapolis

The Colts played an inspired game, relatively speaking, and yet fell short of winning against the visiting Steelers last week and that should take any wind that they may have had out of their sails, as they hit the road with their 0-3 record. The Buccaneers just beat the visiting Falcons and are feeling pretty good about now. After all, they get to play the Colts-Lite. This is a rare Monday night appearance for the Bucs and they couldn’t have handpicked a more-ripe-to get-beat opponent. Curtis Painter has been named the starting quarterback over the concussed Kerry Collins. The Colts passing offense remains mostly in shambles and now they have to adjust once again to a new QB and that’s one of the reasons the Bucs are so heavily favored. Let’s not forget or ignore that Indy lost its only road game by 27 points and followed that up with a home loss to the pitiful Brownies. One really has to wonder how the Colts will compete here. The season was lost before it started and with a 0-3 record, no QB and a defense that will be on the field practically all game, chances are they won’t compete. The Buccaneers playing at home are tough against the run. They just held Michael Turner to 20 yards on 11 carries and they’ll load the box against this intruder. This week should be possibly the easiest matchup of the season for Tampa and they’re not nearly good enough to not play hard. Play: Tampa Bay –10 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Texas +125 over TAMPA BAY

David Price was the forgotten starting pitcher on that historic night in baseball last Wednesday. Had Yanks manager Joe Girardi not gotten cute with his staff, Price and the Rays may not be here. In any case, David Price has not been right for some time. His groundball/fly-ball ratio has been trending the wrong way for six weeks. His walks are also showing a serious increase. His month-by month walk totals are as follows: 9, 4, 9, 11, 14 and 16 in September. On Sept 7 he faced the Rangers and allowed two runs in six innings but don’t buy that. He was in trouble all night and got extremely lucky when hard hit balls were right at people. In his most important game of the year in his last start, the Yanks whacked him hard and he was gone after four frames and five runs. Price had a tough year at the Trop too, where he went 4-9 with a 3.71 ERA. Colby Lewis will not dazzle anyone. What he will do is consistently throw strikes and give the Rangers a chance to win. He usually gives the Rangers 6+ innings of quality frames. Lewis also posted a 3.43 ERA on the road and overall his BAA against was just .244 but on the road it was .237. Price has a reputation of being one of the best starters in the game but his current form screams stay away. He’s fragile right now and he’s facing a club that can smell blood like nobody else. Play: Texas +125 (Risking 2 units).

Updated Series Price:

DETROIT –102 over N.Y. Yankees

You can lay –1.25 with Justin Verlander tonight but the better play is Detroit to win the series because they’re grossly undervalued. Should Verlander win tonight, the Tigers will face two Yankee misfits over the next two games including A.J. Burnett tomorrow. Let’s forget about tonight for a minute. Verlander has the edge over C.C and the Tigers have momentum. After A.J. was A.J. again in 2011, and after his manager announced he was going with a three-man rotation against Detroit, the storm clouds rolled in Friday night and everything changed. "His month of September was not bad," Girardi said. That was the best the manager could do. New York’s weakness is just as glaring as at it was last year when the Rangers did them in. Outsider of Sabathia, they have no reliable starters and that puts added pressure on the offense. Joe Girardi’s move of calling upon Luis Ayala to pitch the ninth yesterday sums it all up. Yanks were only down four and Ayala is a mop-up man. Girardi threw in the towel and all these “small” things snowball into something much bigger. The Yanks need starting pitching and they need it badly. You can put together the best offense money can buy but in October, without quality starters, it’s too hard to advance. Freud said, “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results”. Someone should point that out to Brian Cashman. Yanks are going home again this year but not to play more baseball. Play: Detroit –102 to win series (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

Tom Freese

Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays' David Price is better than his record suggests w/ a 3.49 ERA in 34 starts and a 218-63 KW ratio. The Rangers' offensive production drops way off on the road to 4.4 runs per game. Texas starter Colby Lewis has a 5.50 ERA L3 starts and has an 11-18 TSR when working on five or six days rest. Tampa Bay is 24-10 after a loss by 2 runs or less.

Mike Anthony

Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

In these short series you gotta like the Rays chances with their ace on the hill in game 3. David Price will start for the Rays. Price had a up and down year with a 12-13 record but decent 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Price had a rough outing last time out against the Yankees, and you can expect him to bounce back big here on Monday afternoon.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Texas Rangers +125

Tampa Bay southpaw David Price is just 4-9 (8-10 on the ML) at home with an ERA of 3.71 this season. He's 0-5 (3-5 on the ML) with a 5.48 ERA in 8 career starts against Texas. The fact the Rays are only batting .236 and scoring just 3.8 runs per game at home has something to do with his poor home record. The fact Texas is hitting .268 and scoring 5.1 runs per game against southpaw starters explains his struggles against the Rangers. Texas scheduled starter Colby Lewis has been at his best on the road, going 9-5 (9-8 on the ML) with a 3.43 ERA this season. He's 2-0 (3-1 on the ML) with a 3.27 ERA in 4 career starts against the Rays. The Rays are 0-5 in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite, and the Rangers are 7-1 in their last 8 road games. We'll take Texas showing value in the underdog role.

Jack Jones

Tigers/Yankees OVER 7

There's no denying that Justin Verlander and C.C. Sabathia are two of the best starters in the game. As a result though, they are both getting a lot of respect with such a low total set in Game 3 of the ALDS tonight. Both starters have been sub-par when facing their respective opponents throughout their careers.

Sabathia is 15-12 with a 4.54 ERA in 33 career starts against Detroit. Verlander is 4-3 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Yankees.

Verlander has given up 10 earned runs over 18 innings in his last four starts against New York for a 5.00 ERA, not once making it past the 6th inning. All four of those contests saw eight or more combined runs.

Sabathia is 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA in his last five starts against the Tigers. He has yielded 15 earned runs, 5 home runs and 39 base runners in 28 innings over this span.

The Yankees are hitting .263 and scoring 5.4 RPG in all games this season. The Tigers are hitting .286 and scoring 5.2 RPG against left-handed starters this year.

ROB VINCILETTI

Yankees vs. Tigers
Play: Over 7.

Both Verlander and Sabathia return for game three after their brief rain shortened starts on Friday. Sabathia has gone over the total in 2 of his 3 starts vs the Tigers and 6 of 8 vs AL central teams. Verlander has gone over in 2 of his 3 vs the Yankees and 6 of 7 vs AL east teams. Both teams lineups have been potent this past week with Detroit averaging over 6 runs and the Yankees over 5 runs. New York has flown over in 6 of 9 on the road when the total is 7 or less and the Tigers 14 of 20 over the total as a home favorite in this range. Look for this one to go over the 7 runs tonight.

Steve Janus

Texas Rangers +121

I look for Texas to take back control of this series with a big win on the road tonight. If you remember Texas went to Tampa Bay in the playoffs last year and won both games on the road. While it seems like the Rays have the edge with David Price on the mound, he is 0-5 with a 5.48 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in eight career starts against the Rangers. Texas will counter with Colby Lewis, who is 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in four starts against the Rays. Lewis has also been a much better starter on the road. He has a 4.40 ERA in 32 starts on the season, but a 3.43 ERA in his 17 starts away from home.

Texas is 7-1 in their last 8 road games, 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter, and 4-1 in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of +110 to +150. BET THE RANGERS!

Dave Price

1 Unit on Yankees/Tigers OVER 7

We'll side with the over this evening as at least 8 total runs have been scored in each of Verlander's last 4 starts versus the Yankees. We've also seen at least 8 total runs in 3 of Sabathia's last 4 starts versus Detroit. The Over is 4-0 in the Tigers' last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 3-0-1 in Verlander's last 4 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Take the Over.

Black Widow

1* on Rangers/Rays OVER 7.5

We'll side with the OVER in Game 3 Monday between the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays. Texas features one of the best line-ups in the league, hitting .281 and scoring 5.3 runs/game this season. They have had great success when going up against David Price, the lefty starter for the Rays tonight. Price is 0-5 with a 5.48 ERA and 1.413 WHIP in eight lifetime starts versus Texas. Neither starter in tonight's game finished the season very strong. Price went 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA in his last three starts, while Lewis went 2-0 with a 5.50 ERA in his last three outings. The Rays are red hot at the plate, and we look for them to get after Lewis tonight. Tampa has scored 5 or more runs in seven straight games, including a combined 23 runs in their last three. The OVER is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 playoff road games. The OVER is 6-1 in Lewis' last 7 starts overall. The OVER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings. Take the OVER 7.5 runs here.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Rangers/Rays UNDER 8

Don't expect to see as many runs scored in Tampa Bay where the Rays are only averaging 3.8 runs per game. The Under is 11-4 in the Rays' last 15 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 20-7-1 in Price's last 28 home starts. The Under is also 5-0 in the Rangers' last 5 Divisional Playoff road games and 7-0 in the Rays' last 7 playoff home games. We'll take the Under.