Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, October 31

Jim Feist

Winnipeg Jets vs Florida Panthers
Pick: Florida Panthers

An old familiar name as the Jets return to the city of Winnipeg this season. Typically, when a team relocates it results in some improvement. If you look back to when the Atlanta Flames moved to Calary in 1980, there have been six teams that have changed cities. The result has been an 11-point improvement at their new location. So far Winnipeg has played 10 games and has seven points (3-6-1). The Florida Panthers have had a long playoff drought, nearly 10 years since they have won their last playoff game. The Panthers made some key moves in the offseason, bringing in names like forward Kris Versteeg, goaltender Jose Theodore and defenseman Ed Jovanovski. But the biggest and best improvement to this team was the hiring of new HC, Kevin Dineen. And thus far it's paying dividends, as the Panthers are 6-4 (12 pts) in 10 games. The Jets are just 1-5 on the road this season and I look for a low scoring game here with the Panthers coming out on top. It will still take some time to see if this edition of the Jets is any better than the last.

Vegas Experts

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Chargers have won 7 of the last 8 meetings with Kansas City, including 20-17 earlier this year. They are not favored by nearly as many points in Monday Night's rematch, so let's lay the points against a Kansas City team whose three-game win streak came against Minnesota, Indianapolis and an Oakland team essentially playing without a quarterback. San Diego comes in angry after blowing a halftime lead last week at the Jets and should come back strong as they were 5-2 ATS last year coming off a loss.

Play on: San Diego

David Chan

Winnipeg @ Florida Panthers
PICK: Florida Panthers

I bet value where I see it and expect the Panthers to maul the visiting Winnipeg Jets.

Florida lost four of six to the Jets franchise last year, and the last three games went into overtime, with the Thrashers winning two of three.

Goaltender Jose Theodore is new to the rivalry though; Theodore has been solid between the pipes thus far and has gone 14-5-0 with a 2.63 GAA in 21 starts vs. Atlanta; he made 24-saves in a 3-2 win at Buffalo on Saturday.

His counterpart tonight will be Ondrej Pavelec who is 4-1-0 with a 2.04 GAA in six career starts vs. Florida.

But I'm laying the juice on the more consistent goaltender, and believe that home ice advantage is also a significant factor in this one; all signs point to a comfortable Panthers victory!

SPORTS WAGERS

San Diego –3 over KANSAS CITY

This one could fall into the category of not betting against a home dog on Monday Night Football but there are other angles that take precedent over that. Most notably are the stock values of these two teams. The Chiefs lost to the Chargers in San Diego in week 4 by a mere three points and subsequently have gone on to win three straight games. In other words the Chiefs, written off for dead after week 3, have seen their stock soar over the past month. The Chargers stock has dropped quicker than the X-Factor ratings. They blew a two-touchdown lead in New York last week. They barely got by the Broncos and Fish prior to that. Philip Rivers has thrown more pick than TD’s and now there’s speculation that he’s playing with an undisclosed injury. The Chargers are barely getting by bad teams and they lost to the only two teams (Jets and Pats) they played that were over .500. In other words, the Bolts stock is low and this is a classic case of buy low and sell high. The Chiefs last three wins have come against the Vikes with McNabb starting, against Indy in a game they trailed 17-0 and last week against the QB-less Raiders. A distant and forgotten memory by the marketplace is the Chiefs first two losses of the year against Detroit and Buffalo in which they were outscored 89-10. The Chargers have the same striking ability as that pair and now is the right time to jump on these Chargers after everyone else is jumping off. Play: San Diego –3 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

N.Y. RANGERS +116 over San Jose

The Sharks began this current six-game road trip in New Jersey back on October 21 after opening the year with one win in four home games. There was a sense or urgency and the Sharkies responded by going 5-0 so far on said trip. The Sharkies have not played at MSG in two years. This is a rare appearance in New York and the team will surely be enjoying the sights and sounds of the Big Apple and will enjoy it with no sense of urgency whatsoever. The Sharks will return home after this game and they have the Penguins on deck. Meanwhile, the Rangers have a huge sense of urgency. They’ve lost both of their home games this year to Toronto and Ottawa. Against Ottawa on Saturday they blew a 4-1 third period lead and have now allowed nine goals against in their two home games. You know for sure that Rangers coach John Tortorella is about to go off and will accept nothing less than a 100% effort for 60 minutes. The Rangers are much better than their current record suggests and they’re very likely to play their best game to date here. Play: N.Y. Rangers +116 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO -½ -105 over Nashville

The Preds are above .500 and while some credit for that is deserved, most of their wins are not. Nashville is coming off back-to-back home wins over the Ducks and Bolts. Against TB, they were clearly the second best team on the ice. Prior to that pair of wins, the Preds had one win in six games while scoring a measly nine times over that span. In five road games the Preds are 3-2 but deserve to be 0-5 after getting soundly outplayed in all five games, especially the past three in Western Canada where they were outshot by a combined 98-52. The Blackhawks are among the elite teams in the league. They’re now 6-2-0-2 and they haven’t come close to playing its best yet. Chicago is also 7-1 over the Central in their last eight tries and the last two times the Preds visited here they went 0-2 and were outscored 10-4. Expect more of that treatment here, as this is the weakest Nashville team in years. Play: Chicago -½ -105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Chargers/Chiefs UNDER 45

The Under gets the call as our free play tonight as the books have set the bar a little too high. These two AFC West rivals have combined for 44 points or less in 7 of the last 8 meetings. Including the lone matchup that exceeded 44 points in this span, a 57 total-point effort, these teams have only averaged a total of 41.25 points over the last 8 meetings. In addition, the Chiefs fit into an unders system that has been quite profitable in recent years. Consider that plays under on any team that is coming off an upset win by 10 points or more and is matched up against a division opponent has produced a 20-4 record the last 3 seasons. This system has seen an average posted total of 43.6 points, and we've seen the teams fitting this system combine with their foes to score just 38.7 points on average. Lastly, the under is 6-2 in the Chiefs' last 8 home games and 5-0 in their last 5 contests versus division opponents. Bet the Under.

MNF Play: We're siding with the Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 (Bodog) over the San Diego Chargers. Getting the Chiefs at home plus more than a field goal is an absolute gift here. It just goes to show you that oddsmakers post lines to appease public perception and not the true value in the game. First of all, San Diego only beat the Chiefs by 3 points earlier this year in San Diego - Now oddsmakers are expecting them to win by more than that on the road? Note that the Chargers are just 2-7-1 in their last 10 games as a road favorite, and the Chiefs are a solid 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 vs the Chargers at home in Arrowhead stadium. Sure, the Chiefs got off to a horrible start and that is what the public remembers. But the Chiefs have come around, winninng 3 straight including a 28-0 shutout in Oakland. Now they get to return home, refreshed, renewed, and reorganized. We could easily chalk up the Chiefs poor start to the season as a result of the lockout and lack of practice over the summer. Kansas City is averaging a solid 129.3 yards/game despite losing top running back Jamal Charles to a season-ending knee injury several weeks ago. Jackie Battle, Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones have all pitched in to pick up the slack. Considering the fact that the Chargers defense allows a high amount of yardage on the ground (121.7 ypg – 21stNFL), we expect the Chiefs to use a heavy dose of those three Monday Night against the Chargers. Meanwhile, San Diego will be on the back end of back-to-back road games and that is always tough. They're also coming off of a horrible performance last week vs the Jets that included another subpar performance and two picks from Phillip rivers and a 17-0 2nd half run allowed to the Jets. The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Meanwhile the Chargers are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. We like Kansas City to win this game straight up but getting more than a field goal is great insurance. We'll make 70% of our play on the spread and the other 30% on the moneyline. Take the Chiefs. Our free plays are documented and are currently 123-65-1. Sign up now for the best free picks on the internet!

John Ryan

Nashville Predators at Chicago Blackhawks
Prediction: Nashville Predators

5* graded play on Nashville as they take on Chicago in NHL action set to start at 8:00 PM ET. My proprietary simulator and statistical database shows a high probability that Nashville will win this game. Further supporting this graded play are game situations is the fact that Nashville has done well against winning record teams. They have gone 26-24, BUT has made 15.2 units per one unit wagered in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season spanning the past three seasons. Blackhawks are a meager 12-18 losing 13.7 units per one unit wagered after having won four or five of their last six games. Upset brewing. Take the Predators.

Rob Vinciletti

Chargers vs. Chiefs
Play: Over 44½

On Monday night the free NFL Totals play is on the over in the Chargers at Chiefs game. Rotation numbers 231/232 at 8:35 eastern. The Chargers have gone over the total in 7 of 8 when the line is +3 to -3, 7 of 8 on the road if the line is 42.5 to 45 and 7 of their lost 10 on October games. In the first game these two played under scoring 37 points in a game where KC had 31 yards with 2 first downs in the first half. This one figures to me higher scoring tonight. Look for this one to play over the total.

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

POWER SYSTEM PLAY

San Diego -3 over KANSAS CITY: Handicapping 101.. Don't bet on your favorite teams. Well Im gonna break that here. I just feel that San Diego has too much for an over achieving KC team tonight. Sure the hiefs are playing better, but they have beat just one team with a winning record so far and that teams (Oakland) was using Kyle Boller as their QB and they were still outgaind in the 28-0 win. KC Does have a nice 3 game winning streak, but they have face an Over-the-hill McNaab, an Indy team without Peyton and the aforementiond Oakland team with Kyle Boller at the helm. Anyone should be able to handle that 3 game stretch. We also note that despite the 3-3 mark, the Chiefs have been outgained by 58 ypg, including by 123 yards the first time these teams met. KC did lose by just 3 to San Diego in the first game of the year, but that should have this Chargers team even more focused this time around, and they have had plenty of time to get ready as they are coming off a bye week. Last year the Chiefs took the division crown from this San Diego team and that gives them motivation #2. Motivation #3 comes from the fact that Rivers has been taking alot of heat during the Bye week, for another Chargers slow start, so I look for him to have a big game tonight. The Chiefs have one of the worst offenses in the league at 28th overall (303 ypg) and they are just 25th in scoring at 17.5 ppg. Now they face the 4th ranked Chargers defense, so generating much offense for the Chiefs tonight will be difficult. Cassell has done a fine job of late, but the Chargers do bring in the 4th ranked pass defense in the league that allows just 175 ypg. On the Other side the Chargers bring the 8th ranked offense into this one and will face a Chiefs team that is 18th in total defense and 26th in points allowed (25 ppg). San Diego clearly big edges on both sides of the ball. San Diego was a huge favorite the first time around and they just saw the Chiefs get blown out in their first 2 games, so a bit of overconfidence may have taken control and SD won by just 3. They will not overlook the Chiefs this time around as a loss here would really hurt in the race for the AFC West crown. San Diego by at least a TD here. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- Play against homke teams with a libe of +3 to -3 if they allowed 5.5 yards per attempt passing in their last game, if they also gaing less than 5.5 ypa passing in that last game. System is 23-4 the last 5 seasons.

2 UNIT PLAY

San Diego/ Kansas city Under 44.5: The Total is just too high here. The Chiefs struggle to throw the ball and SD has the 4th ranked pass defense, so thier only hope of winning is to pound the ball with their 8th ranked rushing offense, vs a Chargers defense that is 21st in stopping the run. Running the ball will also help the Chiefs keep the ball away from this high powered SD offense. The Chargers do like to throw the ball, but they have not got their running game going and they will look to do that tonight vs a KC team that is 24th vs the run. The last 3 in this series have all fallen well below tonight's total and I see that happening again tonight. No more than 37 here.

3 UNIT PLAY

Nashville/ Chicago Under 5: The Preds will not be know for a good goal scoring team this year and they currently rank 20th in scoring (2.4 gpg) and 30th in shots take (23.1 spg), plus they are 17th in PP (15.8%). Nashville has also struggled to score on the road of last as they put in just 4 total goals in their last 3 games on the road. The scoring will not get any easier for them tonight as they face a Chicago team that is 7th in gpg allowed (2.3) and 1st in penalty kills (93.9%). Chicago is ranked 4th in scoring (3.1 gpg) and 4th in shots taken (33.6 spg), but they are 27th in PP (10.5%) and Pekka Rinne comes in with 2 shutouts in his last 4 starts. The OU is 3-10 the last 13 meetings in Chicago and 3-10-4 in the Preds last 17 vs the Central. I just don't see alot of goals in Chicago tonight.

1 UNIT PLAY

San Jose -130 over NY RANGERS: The Sharks are already 5-1 on the road this year and they have gone 25-9 in their last 34 vs the Atlantic. The Rangers have gone just 1-3 in their last 4 and have scored just 2 gpg in that stretch. Not gone get it done vs a San Jose team that has scored 3.4 gpg in their last 5 games. Sharks just have too much for NY here.

NHL PREDICTIONS

Jets / Panthers Under 5.5

The 3-6-1 Winnipeg Jets will be in Florida to face the 6-4-0 Panthers tonight in a Southeast division rivalry game. This will be the first time these two teams meet this season. Last season Atlanta (Winnipeg) took 4 of the 6 meetings, but all 6 games were decided by one goal. Ondrej Pavelec hasn't been the confirmed starter, but he is 4-1-0 with a 2.04 GAA in six starts vs Florida lifetime (3-0 with a 1.63 GAA in his three starts in Florida). Jose Theodore is confirmed for tonight's game. He is 4-2 on the season with a 2.53 GAA and .915 SV% on the year (he has 1 shutout on the year). In these two teams 6 meetings last year 4 of the games went UNDER the total, including 4 of the last 5. The Panthers success has come from the powerplay, as they converting 23.3% of their chances. Winnipeg's 77.3% PK may have troubles tonight if Florida has a few chances with the man advantage. Note that the Panthers have won 3 of their last 4 including a home victory over the Islanders and road victories against Montreal and Buffalo. Their only loss in that span was one goal loss against the Senators who scored in the final couple seconds. Winnipeg has only managed 9 goals in 5 road games if we through out their 9-8 win over Philadelphia last week in a bizarre game. The Panthers are averaging just 2 goals per game at home. Note that the UNDER is 14-6 in the jets last 20 vs their division rivals, and 8-3 in their last 11 when playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 15-6-4 in the Panthers last 25 home games, and 6-2-3 in their last 11 as a home favorite. The UDNER is 13-3 in these two teams last 16 meetings in Florida. The trend continues with these two teams playing the UNDER, and the Panthers continue to play solid hockey. I'm putting a unit on the UNDER and the PANTHERS.