Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, October 6

Jim Feist

Dodgers at Cardinals
Pick: Over

The Cardinals shocked the DOdgers in game 1 in LA, coming from a 6-2 late inning deficit against probable Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw to win 10-9. Kershaw has been Superman during the regular season, but in the postseason he's more like Clark Kent this year and last. LA rebounded in game 2 but needed a solo homer from Kemp in the 8th to pull out the much-needed 3-2 win and even the series. Now the series heads to St Louis and the John Lackey makes the start for the redbirds. Lackey came over from Boston so has plenty of postseason experience. Lackey hasn't been spectacular for the birds in his 10 starts, posting a 4.30 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He will face Hyun-Jin Ryu who is coming off some shoulder problems. Ryu hasn't pitched since Sept 12 but is ready to go and the Dodgers need him. Ryu has been great on the road, posting a 10-4 away record this season with a 3.03 ERA. LA is also 7-2 in Ryu's last nine overall starts and 16-7 in his last 23. LA has also been a good OVER teams, posting a 21-5-2 Over/Under mark their last 28 games and 12-3-1 Over/Under in their last 16 away games. Part of the issue has been a bullpen that has been shaky at best, especially in the closer position. The way both teams are hitting combined with a less than stellar LA bullpen, I'm taking the OVER here on Monday.

Rob Vinciletti

Nationals vs. Giants
Play: Under 6

A solid pitching match takes center stage in this one as Madison Bumgarner squares off against D. Fister. Bumgarner has a solid 2.43 era in his last 3 starts and has allowed just 3 runs in his last 14 innings at home vs the Nationals. Fister has a 1.66 era in his last 3 starts and has pitched under in 3 of 4 October starts. He has gone under twice here vs the Giants allowing just 1 run in 13 innings. These two hooked up in June in what turned out to be a 2-1 game. Washington has stayed under in 7 of 10 in October games and 6 of the last 7 on the road vs Leftys. The Giants have gone under in 12 of 18 with a day off. Look for another low scoring affair here tonight.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

DAVE COKIN

SEATTLE AT WASHINGTON
PLAY: UNDER 46

We’re going to see a good old fashioned Pros/Joes duel unfolding tonight as the world champion Seahawks invade Washington. The public is going to take the chalk here, while the purportedly sharp play will be on the home underdog.

I’m a little interested in the total here. The opinion is based on how the two teams prefer to play football, and what each is likely to run into in terms of resistance.

The Seahawks are a great team when they play ball control, which means more Lynch and less Wilson. That was the story last season, and based on the initial three games of the current campaign, nothing has changed. The Seahawks won the two games where they had a balanced attack. They lost at San Diego when the Chargers forced them out of their comfort zone and completely dominated them in the process. It’s always easier said than done, but I’ll be surprised if we don’t see a concerted Seattle effort tonight to establish the run in an effort to drive on the Washington defense and establish the tempo they want.

I think the Redskins will want to do the same thing. The ‘Skins need to have Kirk Cousins game manage rather than be the featured attraction. If Cousins has to throw all night, the home team is in deep trouble against this Seattle stop unit. On the flip side, if Washington can generate a consistent ground game, they’re likely to have a great chance to score the upset.

You know what they say about good intentions, and that plays here. If the ground games get shut down, there’s only one alternative and that’s not what I want. But I feel fairly confident that this is geared toward being a physical battle in the trenches with some lengthy and time consuming drives. If enough of those result in FG’s rather than TD’s, we should get a duel where points are not that easy to come by. Betting Unders in football is dicey these days with all the flags for seemingly innocuous offenses. But I’ll look for the low tonight between the Redskins and Seahawks.

Mike O'Connor

WASHINGTON (+7) 19 Seattle 24

The Redskins were beaten soundly in front of a national audience last Thursday night against the Giants 14-45 and should respond with an inspired performance at home against the defending champs. On a short week the Redskins were caught flat with limited prep time and were embarrassed by a mistake filled effort as they committed 6 turnovers. Redskins QB Kirk Cousins has turned the ball over far too often, with 18 in his 11 games, and he’ll have to take better care of the ball if the Redskins are going to have a shot in this game. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are coming off of their bye and a 26-20 home win against the Broncos where they shut down Peyton Manning for three quarters before having to win it in overtime. They have had extra time to prepare for Cousins and a Redskin offense that is a work in progress with a new quarterback attempting to get acclimated to a new system.

Overall, the Redskins have played well on offense so far this season, averaging 416 total yards at 6.2 yppl against teams that allow 392 yards at 5.8 yppl with above average production on the ground and in the air. Their main problem has been turnovers as they are tied for last in the league at -5, some of that attributed to negative fumble luck. From a fundamental defensive perspective, they match up well with a Seattle offense that is driven by their ground game as the Redskins only allow 88 yards at 3.4 ypr. If they can shut down the run, the Redskins should be competitive in this game.

Washington qualifies in 99-39-4, 56-20-3 and 40-13 situations but the Seahawks qualify in a 662-491-40 situation of their own. My ratings favor Seattle by about 6.5 points but I am reluctant to play against a more talented Seahawk team, with rest, who has played particularly well in the spotlight and seem to relish the opportunity. Coach Pete Carroll owns a 10-1 record in prime-time games since taking over in Seattle in 2010, winning by an average 27-11 score. I’ll pass but lean to the Redskins to keep it within the number.

Jimmy Boyd

Washington Nationals +122

I'm not expecting the Nationals to go away quietly. Washington won 3 of 4 at San Francisco during the regular season and are a couple of breaks away from this series being tied. The Giants will send out their ace in Madison Bumgarner, who was brilliant at Pittsburgh in the Wild Card play-in game. However, Bumgarner has actually performed better on the road than he has at home. He has a 2.22 ERA on the road compared to a 4.03 ERA at home.

Washington counters with Doug Fister, who actually out-dueled Bumgarner in San Francisco back on June 10 in a 2-1 Nationals victory. In that start, Fister threw 7 shutout innings. He closed out the regular season on fire, posting a 1.66 ERA and 0.738 WHIP over his final 3 starts to quietly finish the year 16-6 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.079 WHIP.

Bumgarner is 5-13 in his last 18 home games against NL teams with a team average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons and 5-10 in his last 15 home starts with a total of 6 to 6.5 runs. Fister is 7-1 in his last 8 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in his last outing and a perfect 8-0 in his last 8 starts after not walking a single batter in his last start.

There's also a strong system in play, as road underdogs who are starting a well rested pitcher, working on 7 or more days of rest, with a tired bullpen that has thrown 13+ innings over their last 3 games are 51-31 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 62% system in favor of the Nationals.

Ray Monohan

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -102

The Cards have the early advantage with the split in L.A. Normally I like to fade John Lackey but there is no disputing he knows how to pitch in the playoffs. With that and the way the Cardinals grind out at bats and there is lots of good reason to get behind St. Louis. The Dodgers just have too many all or nothing swingers and that is not ideal when it comes to winning in October.

MLB Predictions

Nationals / Giants Under 6.5

Both of those series resulted in sweeps, the Giants will be able to make it three sweeps with a win tonight. The Giants have been here before and are showing it. Bumgarner will get the ball for the second time this postseason, his first yielding a spectacular performance against the Pirates, clinching them a spot in this series. He went 9 innings allowing only 4 hits and no runs in a 8-0 win. Bumgarner has been great all season long, and in his last ten starts he went five starts giving up no runs or just a single run. Additionally, he's had a 2.42 ERA his last three starts, along with a 0.90 WHIP. He finished the season with a 2.98 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP. I think he'll ride the momentum from his last start into today. It could turn into a pitching duel, as Doug Fister has been on a roll as well. His last three produced an ERA of 1.66 with a 0.74 WHIP. Four out of his last ten starts he allowed no runs. He'll try and improve on his regular season ERA of 2.41. I see this as a tight 3-2 or 2-1 ballgame, so the UNDER 6.5 looks attractive.

Bob Balfe

San Francisco Giants -130

That was a wild game two we witnessed and we probably will never see a postseason game that long in our lifetimes. That was a deflating loss for the Nationals and now will be facing one of the best pitchers in the game going against Bumgarner. I think this will be another low scoring game as the Nationals will be frustrated to not put up any offense. Fister is also a great pitcher, but this game is all about momentum and that is all on San Francisco’s side.

Harry Bondi

Seattle / Washington Under 45

We expect a low-scoring affair tonight in D.C. as both teams will be looking to run the ball. For Washington, it's about keeping QB Kirk Cousins out of third-and-long situations and slowing the game down. For the Seahawks, it will be all about feeding Marshawn "The Beast" Lynch against a Skins defense that allowed 154 rushing yards last week against the Giants. The Seahawks have been an "under" team, going 8-3 to the under in their last 11 games while the Skins have gone under in seven of their last 10 games against winning teams. Points will be hard to come by.

EZWINNERS

Washington Redskins +7

These two teams come into this game at the opposite end of the spectrum. Seattle is coming off of a big win against Denver in a Super Bowl rematch two weeks ago. Washington comes in after getting their asses handed to them last Thursday at home against the Giants. Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins had a terrible game against the Giants but I look for him to bounce back. Cousins is still the answer for Washington at the quarterback position in my opinion and he has plenty of weapons to challenge this Seattle defense. The Seahawks are the defending champions but they are a different team on the road. San Diego showed that this defense can be scored on and Chargers quarterback Phillip Rivers had no where near the offensive talent that Kirk Cousins has to work with. The Seattle offense looks to be improved this season as well and quarterback Russell Wilson is developing into one of the best in the league. However since taking over as the Seahawks starting quarterback, Seattle is just 9-8 straight up on the road and only four of those wins were by more than six points. I expect this one to be closer than most people think it will be. Take the points.

Tony Finn

Seahawks / Redskins Under 46

It hasn't been talked enough about (sarcasm), the time and place when Mike Shanahan possibly ruined the career of franchise quarterback Robert Griffin III by letting him play with a knee injury suffered during a game, one that he rode all the way to the end. Since that point in Redskins history Washington has failed to cover 10 of the last 14 as underdogs, home or away, and they enter a Monday night tilt with a second string quarterback that is coming off a game where he just threw four interceptions against a pedestrian defense, the Giants. It is fair to say that some of the shine dulled after Kirk Cousins’ Week 4 performance against Tom Coughlin's New York defense. In all honesty the enthusiasm for Cousins took a big hit with that nightmarish Thursday exhibit. But the real question is did he learn anything, or was it an indication that it is just that easy to get into Cousins' head?

The Giants linebackers and secondary got physical with Washington's receivers even going as far as to take a handoff from one of the G-men's tight ends. right out the tight end’s hands. Is there a defense more physical than Seattle's? Was the Giants beat down of the Redskins a prelude for this Monday night affair?

The Seahawks defense figures to be physical limiting the Redskins offense. In the same breath the Seattle offense hasn't been ATS successful in the Monday spotlight going 0-8 ATS off a SU/ATS win, when playing with more than seven days rest. The Seahawks are also 0-4 ATS all-time as favorites in games against NFC East teams off a SU favorite loss and defending Super Bowl champions are 1-8 ATS as non-division road favorites of more than 3 points in Monday night games. For the most part these ATS failures are due to lack of offense.

The Under is 7-1 in Seahawks last 8 vs. NFC, 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 Monday games and 8-3 in Seahawks last 11 games overall. The Under is 6-0 in Redskins last 6 games in Week 5, 7-3 in Redskins last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 16-7-1 in Redskins last 24 games in October.

Chip Chirimbes

Seahawks at Redskins
Play: Redskins

There will be a clash of trends that surround this Monday night affair as the Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks visit the Nation's Capital to play Washington. Seattle has won each of their last eight appearances on Monday Nights while the Redskins hold a 11-4 all-time regular season series advantage. Washington leads the NFL in sacks and their plan will be to pressure quarterback Russell Wilson and for Kirk Cousins to win his first start in his last six attempts. Washington has won the last six meetings straight-up and could possible pull this one out as the Seahawks are just not the same on the road.

Chip Chirimbes's Featured Package

SPORTS WAGERS

SAN FRANCISCO -130 over Washington

Let’s see if we understand this. The Giants go into Washington as a big dog both games against Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman and leave with a 2-0 series lead. Now the series shifts back to San Francisco where perhaps one of the top 3 pitchers in the game is scheduled to pitch and the Giants are a small favorite over that stiff, Doug Fister. We said it last night in the Angels/Royals game and it’s worth repeating that there is often value in playing the chalk and that applies here. With momentum and a huge edge on the hill, San Fran should be at least -160 here. Fister’s 16-6 won/loss record is extremely misleading. He rarely misses a bat, as his 98 K’s and 6% swing and miss rate in 164 innings will attest to. His xERA of 3.70 is over a run higher than his actual ERA and his pitch to contact profile is a risky way to roll. Fister now pitches with the weight of the season on his shoulders.

Madison Bumgarner has been the game's most skilled starting pitcher since the beginning of August. His 15% swing and miss rate and 70% first pitch strike over that span was unmatched in the majors and gave full support to his elite command. Bumgarner struck out 219 batters this season in 217 innings while walking just 43 hitters. Already regarded as one of the elite young starters in baseball (he’s just 24 years old), Bumgarner took his game to another level in that one-game playoff against Pittsburgh when he went 9 full, struck out 10 and didn’t allow a run. He’ll now face a Washington club that could not hit Jake Peavy or Tim Hudson, two aging vets whose careers are winding down. More than that, however, is the state of mind of these Nationals. You could see it in their demeanor when San Fran tied it in the ninth inning in Game 2 after Matt Williams inexplicably removed Zimmerman in the ninth with two outs. The stench of defeat permeated throughout the Nationals dugout and it hasn’t gone away. This is a defeated visitor that we give less than a 25% chance of winning this Game 3 and that’s exactly how we’ll play it.

ST. LOUIS +101 over Los Angeles

After being tagged for four first-inning runs vs. SF on September 12th and reportedly hitting 90 mph only once, Hyun-Jin Ryu was removed before the start of the second. He said it was similar to the injury he dealt with in May (shoulder irritation) that landed him on the 15-day disabled list. Ryu has been off since that day almost a month ago. We can somewhat understand why Ryu is favored here. He’s been consistent ever since he arrived in the big leagues. Excellent control is one of Ryu's greatest assets (29 BB in 152 innings). His command is in great shape due to a reasonable strikeout total and he continues to keep the ball on the ground at a very decent rate of 47%. However, Ryu is not unhittable. He has an average strikeout rate to go along with his average swing and miss rate. Furthermore, we have no idea how durable he’s going to be or if he’s 100%. The Dodgers really have no choice but to take their chances with him here because every other starter they have besides Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke is a huge risk and this is pivotal Game 3. Current Cardinals have 10 hits in 34 AB’s against Ryu for a BA of .294 and while that’s a very small sample size, it came at a time when Ryu was sharp and he may not be close to being as sharp here.

We’re not assuming anything. Perhaps Ryu is on his game and if that comes to pass, we still prefer the Cardinals in St. Louis where they won 51 out of 81 games. They are even tougher to beat in the playoffs at Busch Stadium and they have to be feeling pretty damn good after leaving L.A with a split. The Cardinals survived the best one-two punch in the league by splitting against Kershaw and Greinke and could have easily swept after tying it up late in Game 2. John Lackey brings a wealth of playoff experience into this one and we like what we’ve seen from him recently. Over his last five starts, Lackey’s swing and miss rate was an elite 15%. Over that span he struck out 26 batters in 29 innings. Lackey brings pinpoint control and elite command with him to the mound. He's still inducing grounders at a healthy level and at Busch he went 2-0 with a 2.38 ERA over five starts with an oppBA of .238 since the trade that brought him to St. Louis. Unlike the Dodgers, Cards manager Mike Matheny had options besides Lackey. He could have just as easily chosen Michael Wacha or Shelby Miller to start Game 3 but Lackey has the skills and experience to give the Cardinals the best shot of winning. It should also be noted that with Yadier Molina behind the plate, the Cardinals have won 8 out of 10 games in the NLDS, which is a winning percentage of .800. That’s good enough reason for us to step in.

SPORTS WAGERS

Seattle -7½ +104 over WASHINGTON

The last time these two met back in 2012 in a playoff game both teams were headed in the right direction. They had young quarterbacks who looked like future stars. They both had strong running games but as we look back, one team stayed on that path while the other did not. In 2013, the Seahawks won the Super Bowl while the ’Skins lost 13 of their 16 games. One quarterback (Russell Wilson) is considered in the top 10 -- top five perhaps -- and the other (Robert Griffin III) has endured two major knee injuries and remains sidelined. Now the Seahawks are 2-1 while the Redskins are 1-3 and trying to avoid another disastrous season. The issues keep getting worse for this Washington team that has no direction whatsoever. After Kirk Cousin’s community college effort in his last game against the Giants in which he helped make a bad situation much, much worse, the spotlight has turned in Washington to a candlelight vigil for RG3’s return. Cousin’s has thrown 18 picks in his 11 starts. Pressure him and he makes extremely bad decisions. The Seahawks defense has faced Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning in the first three weeks and after facing that trio, this one may appear in slow motion to them.

For whatever reason, these prime time games this year have been one blowout after another. They have become practically unwatchable and another blowout here would come as no surprise. However, we’re still not willing to lay significant road points on Monday Night Football because it’s a very low percentage play. Over the years, home dogs on Monday Night have a significant edge in covering the number, which has us backing off. Frankly, we have no interest in betting this one and therefore we will pass. Hold a gun to our head and we’d reluctantly spot the points.